Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

That is how I’d do it, without the profit compounding bit though: Losses occur at zero crossings, which are not ignorable (average about ~6 zero crossings/100 games). One needs to be careful to split games into smaller batches (100 or so, which is probably an evening on the table anyway) and “take profit” at a reasonable level, since expected profit (~sqrt(n)) grows slower than the house advantage (~n/40 or so).
So on average one could get perhaps 2/100 or so games total profit I think (the numbers could be optimized). Slow, but possible.
I don’t believe in runaways etc., overall this should converge to a Gaussian, not a thick-tailed distribution. There is no mechanism for this here.
I think the mean reversion is equivalent to this (just taking a different reference point).
k

Mate, you have nailed it for me! Yes, i like it when others are losing! That is why I like trading! So many people enjoy losing while trading. Me, on the other hand, like taking profits! So we are all happy! Like in the Metallica's family. All fans are Metallica's Family!

Thank you both, 444 (when shift is pressed it is $$$, very wise!) and Ed, for saying it so simple, instead of me figuring it out for the others! Got bless you, Sirs!

too easy...

people are angry at their own failure, from the failure of other theories, from crying for lost time ...
because all these reasons, they are becoming more and more careful to whom they trust ...
I see educational value from your posts (more from the theoretical point of view, the practical view depends on the realization) ...

if you want to build the trust even in disappointed ones by forex, one of ways is to share forward demo/live trading statement (just a small volume) for a longer time but completely open ...

3025, the year people realize that a trade explorer was all that was standing between them and their dreams...

...not

Here are the numbers and real life experiences:
On average it takes 12 spins in an hour.
On average 1 spin every 5 mins.
This is due to allowing bet time, sorting the betting and winning after the spin, strength of spin, exchange of chips etc...
In 4 hours there has only been 48 spins.
In 8 hours there has only been 96 spins.
In 4 hours you feel the need to go to the toilet... Wearing a Catheter was not an option (I'm not a gambler) I've known gamblers to wear catheters.
After 8 hours you are buggered with no breaks.
Lots of annoying people to deal with.
Driving to and from the casino everyday (unless you don't have a job) is still a buggery.
Like I said, the profit you make against the environmental circumstance is not even worth it.
I'm actually an excellent Poker player... but I don't play because I make more in trading.
The games are beatable (roulette, black jack, poker and baccarat) but the profit is not worth.

(Sorry I just realized the Phil Ivey video has an external promotional third party... I removed the video link personally)

Yep.

I'm not here to build trust nor form friendship with anyone.
My contact-ability is off.
I'm not here to seek anyone's approval, friendship, likes or dislikes.

Unlike people who have other agendas in scamming people.
What I offer is "take it or leave it".

Please don't take offense... but I don't give a shit about anyone here.
I don't need anything from anyone here.
Most of my post are due to me procrastinating and not doing what I'm suppose to be doing.

I actually posted some of my trades... I posted my account balance....
and then they said it was faked... they also said my trades were faked...
CHECK MATE!!!

If you have the same balance as I do, you wouldn't link it to any third party.
Peace.

how many people play poker?
millions.
how many people constantly win while playing poker?
only a few.
now: how many people trade?
millions...

snowing early this year

it is the same thing, but how many really know how to play poker or trade?

soo much snow...

LOL I think I killed the thread.

No it's a way of measuring demand……..
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...48#post9022648

I need some time to put my response in context………..

Thus, price changes to satisfy the condition of the market and every price is a result of the condition of the market. The fact that price moves for a specific reason further precludes price from developing in a random manner.

SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RANDOM WALK AND EFFICIENT MARKET THEORIES
There are a select few who regularly profit from their involvement in organized markets, and there is the great majority of people who do not. Among the points which distinguish successful traders and investors on one hand from the vast majority of market participants and most of the academic community on the other, are the acceptance by the latter group of the notion of organized markets as a random walk, and the ability to distinguish organized from unorganized markets because of the so-called efficient market theory.

The most important yet simplistic implication of market logic is that anyone can now locate value in an organized (or in fact any) market. Thus, one can determine when price is below value, at value or above it. Armed with this information, so long as one has the other requisite characteristics, one can join the ranks of the few who make money consistently in the organized markets. A secondary implication of market logic must therefore be that it refutes both the random walk and efficient market theories currently in vogue among the majority of the academic community. Consider each of these long-accepted theories regarding market activity.

Random Walk
The theory of price fluctuation as a random walk (and the term itself) has been used for centuries. There are numerous definitions of random walk, and each definition varies in shades depending on who is doing the defining. According to Robert Hagins Dow Jones-Irwin Guide to Modern Portfolio Theory, random walk is a term used in mathematics and statistics to describe a process in which successive changes are statistically independent. A random walk implies (that the market's price displays) no discernible pattern of travel. The size and direction of the next step cannot be predicted from the size and direction of the last or even from all previous steps. The serial correlation is (functionally) zero. In other words, the random walk theory holds that it is impossible to predict tomorrow's price changes based on what has occurred today.

Every market is an auction market, either passive or active. In a passive auction, the individual does not take part in an active negotiation process but selects from products offered at different prices which make up the range. In an active auction, participants negotiate the range. Whether the auction is passive or active, all markets auction or trend up and down in order to fulfill their purpose, to facilitate trade. In an auction, prices do not develop randomly, but rather to fulfill the purpose of the auction.

The purpose of any market is to facilitate trade. Lack of trade facilitation inevitably causes price to move. This price movement behavior is as true in the organized markets as it is in a grocery store or any other everyday market. Thus, price changes to satisfy the condition of the market and every price is a result of the condition of the market. The fact that price moves for a specific reason further precludes price from developing in a random manner.

Furthermore, prices are not statistically independent of each other. Price, in moving to satisfy the condition of the market, provides an informational flow. In other words markets must generate trade, and in doing so, prices fluctuate, generating information about where trade is being conducted and where it is not. This information is valuable to the market participant. But true randomness does not generate valuable information. In other words, in statistically random situations, knowledge of the present is not important for it conveys no advantage. If knowledge of the present structure of a market is important and does convey an advantage - a market cannot be a random walk. Price moves because of the degree of each timeframe's participation at various levels of price.

Efficient Markets
According to Robert Hagin, The efficient market theory is the assertion that in a market with numerous investors who prefer high returns over low returns and low risk over high risk, information is of no value. An investor can attain no more or less than a fair return for the risks undertaken.

In the semi-strong form, the efficient market theory hypothesizes a market in which all publicly available information is efficiently impounded on the price of a stock, and hence a market in or item of publicly available information that can be used to predict future price changes.

An efficient market does not allow price to get away from value, since the theory holds that information is of no value since it is factored into the market, as every price must represent fair value. If price is always in equilibrium of value, then the theory presumes that prices are indistinguishable from one another in all but number. Thus, according to the efficient market hypothesis, all prices represent value, and the market is balanced at every moment: all the needs and concerns of the entire marketplace - participants in every known and unknown timeframe - are brought to the present by a price representing value for all. This seldom occurs and when it does, it is happenstance, and non-discernible except by the lack of activity.

Different participants have different timeframes for buying and/or selling; longer timeframe participants seek to buy low and sell high, and short timeframe participants must transact sooner and cannot be as discriminating. Thus, all markets including organized markets are inefficient from the standpoint that participants with differing time- frames view the most recent price with differing opinions and do not participate at the same time and at the same price. In other words, a given price is not viewed as an equal opportunity for all. The market cannot at any one moment balance all the needs and concerns of the entire marketplace participants in every known and unknown timeframe since the most recent price does not represent the same thing to all participants. In other words, no single price represents fair value for everyone.

Rather than being efficient, all organized markets are effective. They are effective from the standpoint that they produce and regulate trade, bringing into play all participants over time. In other words, the market facilitates trade from all participants, not with each individual price, but over a large sample size. The fact that participants with different timeframes exist precludes a price dominated by one time-frame from being fair value for all. The efficient market hypothesis overlooks the existence of participant timeframes.

The assumption of "randomness and the efficient market hypothesis" assumes that the market - price movement over time -conveys no knowledge or information. Instead, it assumes that if a trader profits from a market, he has resorted to predicting, and his luck will sooner or later run out. However, one need not predict the future in a market of uncertainty. It is impossible to always accurately predict future events. But we can monitor the market, understand its present condition and how current price relates to the market's current assessed value, and from this, we can logically deduce probable behavior, and adjust our assessment from the new information the market provides as it unfolds. And by extracting bits of market-generated information, we can deduce and change.

The Academic Community's Ball and Chain
One rule that most successful individuals and businesses have incorporated into their operating procedure is not to pursue any endeavor in which they face a disadvantage before correcting those things that create their disadvantage. In other words, it is important to continually assess and reassess what is producing successful results, discarding what does not yield success.

Yet, the academic community continues to pursue the refinement or studies based on fallacious assumptions about the market, particularly the random walk and efficient market theories. Gaining knowledge from experience has not been practiced by the academic community, not out of malfeasance, but because in modem society knowledge can more easily be gained from a formal classroom teaching environment. Instead of examining reality, rethinking fundamental market assumptions and seeking a new course of thought. The academic community continues to pursue the disadvantage as taught in the classroom.

This is not meant to be a pedantic indictment of the academic mindset. Clearly, it is difficult in most institutions to gain a true evaluation of reality. It is even more difficult within an institutional setting for the status quo to change, regardless of whether what is accepted is correct or not. The academic community is not guilty of anything worse than not taking a leadership role in thinking logically about markets. But times have changed.

Those who understand the condition of the market (where price over time is building value) are conveyed an advantage from which they can profit whereas those who focus on prices against each other must assume randomness and no understanding

J.Peter.Steidlmayer Markets and Market logic
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post8653953

Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...om#post9470120>

beep, beep, beep, beep.....

splshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you had to summarize these thoughts in 1 short sentence, what would it be?

Can anyone point out some names of traders on these boards that you've come across that you believe are good traders? I'd appreciate it!

the only successful good trader here is Copernicus.

Among the successful fun traders billytt could be one... and myself of course

HeyYou, much appreciated. What style or type of trader are you?

I'm Felix,
Please sombody help me in coding the S1,S2,S3 AND R1,R2,R3 AND MID PIVOT

I want the output on chart to be in arrow form also with arrows on previous days past for at least two months past
appearing on the chart. Timeframe is 4Hrs. Width of the midpoint arrow is 3.

The calculations are as folllows:
// -- CALCULATION FOR PIVOTS ---

PP[i] = (Highpoint[i]+Lowpoint[i]+Closepoint[i])/3;
R1[i] = (2*PP[i]) - Lowpoint[i];
S1[i] = (2*PP[i]) - Highpoint[i];
R2[i] = PP[i] + (Highpoint[i] - Lowpoint[i]);
S2[i] = PP[i] - (Highpoint[i] - Lowpoint[i]);
R3[i] = Highpoint[i] + (2*(PP[i] - Lowpoint[i]));
S3[i] = Lowpoint[i] - (2*(Highpoint[i] - PP[i]));
You can send to my email: felixmo21 at yahoo.com
Thanks.

Lowpoint, etc are the previous day's DAILY cht's Low,High and Close