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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,961
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:14am Oct 5, 2017 12:14am
H4 MA 200. I do not use isolators but many do. So.
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  • #4,962
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:22am Oct 5, 2017 12:22am
Back to 3206 as normal. It is the closest safest place at which business occurred in the recent past so it is very normal to see price action attracted from it. Volume needed to evade it.
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  • #4,963
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:27am Oct 5, 2017 12:27am
Quoting Lock
So GB opened with a gap from yes GB low at 32435 and here we are close to the major composite poc 3206. Now we could stay here for some time balancing or we could continue in the efforts downside in order to test 31637 our main level there (major bracket half back)
Remember that 31637, if eventually reached, is a mid term level. We currently are in a short term trend downside. So it will be a very important test in the case and we could find short term and mid term operators there. Those guys, if reached, could react in a responsive way (buying there) or with an initiative attitude (adding their shorts) So watch out, if reached.
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  • #4,964
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:32am Oct 5, 2017 4:32am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Remember that 31637, if eventually reached, is a mid term level. We currently are in a short term trend downside. So it will be a very important test in the case and we could find short term and mid term operators there. Those guys, if reached, could react in a responsive way (buying there) or with an initiative attitude (adding their shorts) So watch out, if reached.
Here we are, eventually. Now watch out for the reasons explained previously.
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  • #4,965
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:51am Oct 5, 2017 4:51am
Now, price is far below yesterday pit session low 3244, so we have good odds to open with a new gap downside at 15:30+1GMT. We are in between two major composite poc: 3206 above and 3137 below. Just some pips below current mid term level 31637 we have a pit poor low (31595) and a double pass pit gap (3154-31595).

So we have different possible scenarios here.

First of all if we will find new stronger buyers or sellers we will find them below 31637. Not at its perfect tag as bigger timeframes do not use exact refs to place positions.

  1. We could continue lower after 15:30 in order to take out the 31595 and then eventually retrace if we will find serious buyers below it. (maybe after the filling of the double pass pit gap 3154-31595.
  2. We could continue lower and accelerate below 31637, evenutally finding new serious sellers below it and in this case we could easly continue to 3137, 31244 etc.
  3. Or we could find nobody below this major level and consequently start to balance between our closest composite poc 3137-3206 eventually testing multiple times for acceptation above or below 31637.

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  • #4,966
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:02am Oct 5, 2017 5:02am
Quoting Lock
....... First of all if we will find new stronger buyers or sellers we will find them below 31637. Not at its perfect tag as bigger timeframes do not use exact refs to place positions. .....
Remember that this does not mean that it could not retrace from here. It means that, in that case, we will know that those who will carry forward a correction from here, will not be strong hands.
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  • #4,967
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:06am Oct 5, 2017 6:06am
Quoting Lock
Now, price is far below yesterday pit session low 3244, so we have good odds to open with a new gap downside at 15:30+1GMT. We are in between two major composite poc: 3206 above and 3137 below. Just some pips below current mid term level 31637 we have a pit poor low (31595) and a double pass pit gap (3154-31595). So we have different possible scenarios here. First of all if we will find new stronger buyers or sellers we will find them below 31637. Not at its perfect tag as bigger timeframes do not use exact refs...
So below 31637 we accelerated to the lower composite poc 3137. Below it we have 31244 GB poor low and 30937 Sydney poor low. Also currently we have a poor low for preUS session. But note that both 3206 and 3137 are major composite poc and between them we got a mid term level 31637. And Pit US is not open yet.
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  • #4,968
  • Oct 5, 2017 7:56am Oct 5, 2017 7:56am
Stuck to comp poc 3137. But now C inside B period. Balance rules apply. If it will break above we could have some short covering* from here. Eventually testing 31637 from below. If it will break below we could continue to 31244 and 30937. Obviously we could also remain in balance around 3137 but not with this tiny range.

*short covering as we are in short trend downside with a huge new pit gap downside.
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  • #4,969
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:26pm Oct 5, 2017 12:26pm
Technically we are now short in the hole as price went downside below poc when poc could not move anymore. We have currently a poor low for pit session and Sydney poor low at 30937 is still there to be corrected but now those who are selling are, potentially, in a dangerous situation.

I'm not saying it cannot continue lower. I'm saying you got to be aware of the risk involved in this action.
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  • #4,970
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:43pm Oct 5, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting Lock
Technically we are now short in the hole as price went downside below poc when poc could not move anymore. We have currently a poor low for pit session and Sydney poor low at 30937 is still there to be corrected but now those who are selling are, potentially, in a dangerous situation. I'm not saying it cannot continue lower. I'm saying you got to be aware of the risk involved in this action.
see ya at 1.3350
  • #4,971
  • Oct 5, 2017 11:51pm Oct 5, 2017 11:51pm
17/10/06 FRIDAY 08:51+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday we saw a huge new pit gap downside building good odds for a continuation downside or at least a balance. During Pit session we then got balance with a small attempt downside in the final part of the session that btw was short in the hole as the session poc could not move any more downside while price did. Overnight activity, that it worth notice, is without China participation from Monday, continued lower, taking out our last target at 30937, in the direction of the biggest composite poc 2963, being totally indifferent of the risks involved in such a continuation.

3064 the level it reached is significant as it is the top of a very important inside week in the upper major monthly bracket. It is also important to note that we got no re test of the mid term level 31637 (the half back of the entire upper monthly bracket)

Now, price is far below yesterday GB session low at 31637 (note the coincidence with our mid term level) so Tokyo built an other huge new gap downside, that in my opinion will be a strong resistance in any attempt upside during GB session. This does not mean we cannot have some sort of short covering but it means that odds are in favor to a continuation downside or at least a balance after GB open.
About GB action, consider that we are in the tenth day of one time frame action downside, so unless it will stop, the current short term trend downside could morph into a mid term one.

Finally note that the last action downside left above some multi pass gaps (like GB 31025-31244 and Pit 31465-31595) that could be interesting when and if eventually price will pause in this break.
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  • #4,972
  • Oct 6, 2017 12:14am Oct 6, 2017 12:14am
GB tagged Tokyo low and started a short covering against the new huge gap. Note that both Tokyo and Gb for now did not find acceptation below our major ref 3064. Yes GB close level 3127. If price will remain below this value nothing will change from yesterday.
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  • #4,973
  • Oct 6, 2017 12:16am Oct 6, 2017 12:16am
Quoting Lock
GB tagged Tokyo low and started a short covering against the new huge gap. Note that both Tokyo and Gb for now did not find acceptation below our major ref 3064. Yes GB close level 3127. If price will remain below this value nothing will change from yesterday.
It is now clearly a weak low as any exact level used to trade. And this is the reason I consider current action as short covering and not new money buying.
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  • #4,974
  • Oct 6, 2017 12:22am Oct 6, 2017 12:22am
I have been reading up your posts, they are very insightful! Thank you so much, am trying to apply what you mentioned and doing the same analysis myself.
  • #4,975
  • Oct 6, 2017 12:25am Oct 6, 2017 12:25am
Quoting TheOnion
I have been reading up your posts, they are very insightful! Thank you so much, am trying to apply what you mentioned and doing the same analysis myself.

Thank you very much for your appreciations. And let me say that preparing our own analysis first and then compare it, after, with those of others is fundamental in order to be an independent decision maker. So I strongly approve your approach. Best, L.
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  • #4,976
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:09am Oct 6, 2017 1:09am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is now clearly a weak low as any exact level used to trade. And this is the reason I consider current action as short covering and not new money buying.
And here we are...
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  • #4,977
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:14am Oct 6, 2017 1:14am
And now we could have acceptation below 3064 and overnight low or rejection below it. If acceptation we could continue lower, if rejection we could expect something more substantial upside, meaning a serious retracement.
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  • #4,978
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:08am Oct 6, 2017 2:08am
I do not like current environment at all. I suggest to be very careful as it looks like only weak hands are involved for now.
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  • #4,979
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:44am Oct 6, 2017 2:44am
Quoting Lock
And now we could have acceptation below 3064 and overnight low or rejection below it. If acceptation we could continue lower, if rejection we could expect something more substantial upside, meaning a serious retracement.
Retested. Still no acceptation below it.
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  • #4,980
  • Oct 6, 2017 2:54am Oct 6, 2017 2:54am
I would like to emphasize that we are in a short term trend downside and we got a new huge gap downside substantially untouched. And we are in balance. So watch out for a possible break.
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