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AUD/USD

  • #103,101
  • Oct 4, 2017 7:40pm Oct 4, 2017 7:40pm
After finding a good support at the 0.7800 level as shown on the daily chart, the AUDUSD is consolidating with the 0.7900 level and the 55 day EMA as its next resistance and the 200 day EMA around the 0.7739 level as its next support below the 0.7800 level.
  • #103,102
  • Oct 4, 2017 8:03pm Oct 4, 2017 8:03pm
I scrolled back to juni 1, there was a similar scenario (data was off by 0.7%). price went opposite direction until next days close 2200GMT.
After that however, over the next 9 days, the AUD crushed it with around 260pips in the can.

Now, to my point:
Is it even a half sanity to go back in the past and compare similar figures to try to "estimate" the reaction at present time??
  • #103,103
  • Oct 4, 2017 8:08pm Oct 4, 2017 8:08pm
Quoting Liquidsnake
I scrolled back to juni 1, there was a similar scenario (data was off by 0.7%). price went opposite direction until next days close 2200GMT. After that however, over the next 9 days, the AUD crushed it with around 260pips in the can. Now, to my point: Is it even a half sanity to go back in the past and compare similar figures to try to "estimate" the reaction at present time??
this data won't impact for 9 days. That timeframe is indicative of other things in play and other factors need to be considered to work out where AU going next.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #103,104
  • Oct 4, 2017 8:11pm Oct 4, 2017 8:11pm
Quoting dab
{quote} this data won't impact for 9 days. That timeframe is indicative of other things in play and other factors need to be considered to work out where AU going next.
Ah, okey, thanks good answer. Is it a decent idea to use the past as an estimate, even on a short timeframe then?
Basically, when i trade heavy on big impact events i go back and check out outcomes (even if its just 12hours or so in the future) just to get an idea IF the data is off by alot, to try to find a shortterm TP.

whats your thoughts on that strategy?
  • #103,105
  • Oct 4, 2017 9:07pm Oct 4, 2017 9:07pm
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} Ah, okey, thanks good answer. Is it a decent idea to use the past as an estimate, even on a short timeframe then? Basically, when i trade heavy on big impact events i go back and check out outcomes (even if its just 12hours or so in the future) just to get an idea IF the data is off by alot, to try to find a shortterm TP. whats your thoughts on that strategy?
can have it's uses in short term but still need to be mindful of other influencing factors and direction of the trend.

eg 1 - if another data release an hour later than it could enhance or mute the effect of the first
eg 2 - 0.7% variance in direction of trend may impact more than 0.7% variance against the trend
eg 3 - depends where in a trend things are at - near the start, middle or end. Is a retracement due after big moves already? Is it at a point where reversal may happen? How close are we to previous support / resistance?

In short I don't think there is a simple answer (other than shorter time frame gives better validity than longer to the estimate from past examples). If trading were simple many of us would be pros.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #103,106
  • Oct 4, 2017 9:39pm Oct 4, 2017 9:39pm
Quoting dab
{quote} can have it's uses in short term but still need to be mindful of other influencing factors and direction of the trend. eg 1 - if another data release an hour later than it could enhance or mute the effect of the first eg 2 - 0.7% variance in direction of trend may impact more than 0.7% variance against the trend eg 3 - depends where in a trend things are at - near the start, middle or end. Is a retracement due after big moves already? Is it at a point where reversal may happen? How close are we to previous support / resistance? In short...

thanks, great answer. its funny how i read something that makes 100% common sense, but im still surprised about it at the same time

btw, when i have you on the line. could you tell me how i should value diffrence in forecast and actual numbers. for example todays data on the AUD. is there a way to quantify a possible outcome in pips when a forecast is %0.3 and the actual is %-0.6?

thanks alot!
  • #103,107
  • Oct 4, 2017 9:58pm Oct 4, 2017 9:58pm
So the retail numbers are the worse for 4 years.

Everyone is expecting a rate rise coming in 2018..

On what grounds ?

RBA Board member Harper mentioned this on Sept 13th.

“Consumption is two-thirds of gross domestic product…If households as a group were suddenly to decide that we really can’t afford this now, we’re going to start to slow up consumption to keep ourselves on an even keel, then that will certainly pull GDP growth away from where we want it to be.”

With wages growth zero ,debt building up as more and more people are living day to day on credit.

The impact will have a massive impact on GDP.. A recession is going to hit and hit hard .
  • #103,108
  • Oct 4, 2017 10:12pm Oct 4, 2017 10:12pm
Quoting Liquidsnake
{quote} thanks, great answer. its funny how i read something that makes 100% common sense, but im still surprised about it at the same time btw, when i have you on the line. could you tell me how i should value diffrence in forecast and actual numbers. for example todays data on the AUD. is there a way to quantify a possible outcome in pips when a forecast is %0.3 and the actual is %-0.6? thanks alot!
I don't think you can quantify it based on factors I mentioned previously. My best answer was already given at end of previous post "In short I don't think there is a simple answer (other than shorter time frame gives better validity than longer to the estimate from past examples). If trading were simple many of us would be pros."
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #103,109
  • Oct 4, 2017 10:53pm Oct 4, 2017 10:53pm
bought some here at 7829, risk 10, try for 7920...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,110
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:16am Oct 5, 2017 12:16am
Short 7830.
Target 7785.
Stop 7846
It's a big game.
  • #103,111
  • Oct 5, 2017 12:57am Oct 5, 2017 12:57am
I've just added to my longs. Admittedly, I expected a better reaction to this area. However, I just took a gander to see where the next important support is, and I don't see anything till 7675ish. So this is a make or break spot, and I'll put some cheese on it. Widened my stop a tad, so risking 15ish now. Not a fan of that, but they might want to probe that low again during the frank...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,112
  • Oct 5, 2017 1:13am Oct 5, 2017 1:13am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I've just added to my longs. Admittedly, I expected a better reaction to this area. However, I just took a gander to see where the next important support is, and I don't see anything till 7675ish. So this is a make or break spot, and I'll put some cheese on it. Widened my stop a tad, so risking 15ish now. Not a fan of that, but they might want to probe that low again during the frank...
Good RR there
  • #103,113
  • Oct 5, 2017 2:03am Oct 5, 2017 2:03am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Good RR there
Indeed, and it would have been even better had I not got that "wow this is a great trade, I don't want to miss it" feeling. My original level was 22, but I got antsy, and put myself in a bit of a pickle...its always better to miss a trade than to get a shit entry....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,114
  • Oct 5, 2017 2:11am Oct 5, 2017 2:11am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Indeed, and it would have been even better had I not got that "wow this is a great trade, I don't want to miss it" feeling. My original level was 22, but I got antsy, and put myself in a bit of a pickle...its always better to miss a trade than to get a shit entry....
Do remember to protect those profits too as NFP is looming around the corner.
  • #103,115
  • Oct 5, 2017 4:08am Oct 5, 2017 4:08am
Well 4hr doji posted now, and a couple of wicky hourly bars, still expected a better reaction from the buyers....after some creative scalping, lowered my cost basis to 26, gonna move my stop to 21, we either go up now or I'm out....no need to risk more than that I think...bbl, gl, PTL
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #103,116
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:49am Oct 5, 2017 6:49am
The AUDUSD is trying to go back to the 0.7800 level, which has acted as a very good support, but a breakdown of that level could take the pair to the 200 day EMA around the 0.7739 level. The 0.7900 level with the 55 day EMA could act as resistance.
  • #103,117
  • Oct 5, 2017 9:19am Oct 5, 2017 9:19am
Its going down slowly but surely. Now its again at midpoint and I don’t like these as there are many side moves. It going for 0.76 in the coming weeks.
  • #103,118
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:23pm Oct 5, 2017 5:23pm
Quoting DwainUK
Its going down slowly but surely. Now its again at midpoint and I don’t like these as there are many side moves. It going for 0.76 in the coming weeks.
What your bullish ?

The market hasn't digested the economic fundamentals and is simply buying AUD on weaker USD.
School boy error.

The property market in Sydney and Melbourne are beginning to show signs of cracks.
Headlines today is that $8bn worth of property has been relocated from Sydney to Brisbane .. This gathers momentum and flood gates open.
People are so leveraged that they can go into negative equity very quickly and banks can call in the loans.
Others have been sold interest only loans and revert to P+I at a higher rate .. ( sub primesque)

Recession ? I think we are in one as many are saying .. cant afford this and that...

We will be knocking on 70 cents very soon once the panic sets in ...
  • #103,119
  • Oct 5, 2017 7:46pm Oct 5, 2017 7:46pm
Quoting funzodundee
Short 7830. Target 7785. Stop 7846
Job done!
Don't see much happening now until NFP
It's a big game.
  • #103,120
  • Oct 5, 2017 9:08pm Oct 5, 2017 9:08pm
Quoting lasty
{quote} What your bullish ? The market hasn't digested the economic fundamentals and is simply buying AUD on weaker USD. School boy error. The property market in Sydney and Melbourne are beginning to show signs of cracks. Headlines today is that $8bn worth of property has been relocated from Sydney to Brisbane .. This gathers momentum and flood gates open. People are so leveraged that they can go into negative equity very quickly and banks can call in the loans. Others have been sold interest only loans and revert...
current price is 0.778
he said 0.76 and you said 0.70
they both look bearish to me
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
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