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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #901
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:52am Oct 3, 2017 6:52am
Quoting nealpek
thought these were supposed to be trading discussion boards. does anyone trade anything?
I'll fold on USDJPY. Best I can see is consolidation on M30 through to W1. At the moment my attention is placed on DJI, DAX and Nikkei with good short term momentum long :-)

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  • #902
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:59am Oct 3, 2017 6:59am
Quoting nealpek
I'm looking to add a third position....it's all in the eye of the beholder, lol {image}
Look like you're using the H1 chart ... Sorry, my main chart is the D1 chart ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #903
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:02am Oct 3, 2017 7:02am
.
  • #904
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:04am Oct 3, 2017 7:04am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} This thread will eventually end :-)
ROFL!!!!!!
  • #905
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:04am Oct 3, 2017 7:04am
Quoting nealpek
I'm looking to add a third position....it's all in the eye of the beholder, lol {image}
If we are talking 'trade what you see'....I assume all those other little pesky considerations shouldn't get in the way that the noobs consider like risk management, position sizing and trade management.
  • #906
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:07am Oct 3, 2017 7:07am
Quoting nealpek
Just for fun, anyone have any thoughts on U/J direction?
Yep, it can go up or down
  • #907
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:13am Oct 3, 2017 7:13am
ok.. im back to check this thread out (someone pmd me thatit was back on track)

can we talk about the edge on the candlestick and forget the general mumbo jumbo for a while?? lets be specific shall we?


a single time base candlestick; the premise its that "95% of the time price will close above or below the open."

in that sentence you have 2 key words "time" and "open"

"OPEN" if you are watching lets say 1 hour candle.. once it close then of course the price closed above/below the open!! you need to drop to a lower time frame in order to "see" how its moving and where it could posible go FROM the open price (your line reference)

"TIME" same example.. 1 hour candles.. if you drop to 15 minutes then there its 4 candles of minutes time that makes 1 hour right?? AND you have the reference line that its the open of the 1 hour candle (your reference candle)


so you need to "box" that candles and the open in order to analize or watch where the price will possibly go at the close... very easy, its right in your nose, just think a little =)

or even better.. forget time and 1more variable
  • #908
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:13am Oct 3, 2017 7:13am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} No.....we have crossed wires....instrument and timeframe diversification is becoming more and more difficult.....but system diversification provides the solution...for example diversification across 5 separate systems in a portfolio attacking different market conditions while minimizing risk when those conditions are not present.....sheeeeesh :-)
I see....well in theory it is a nice idea too, which profit % can you get per month on average?
  • #909
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:13am Oct 3, 2017 7:13am
Quoting nealpek
All of these factors are extremely important. But when I see a good setup, my confidence in the structure allows me to widen my stops and escape some of the potential risk "noise" that catches a lot of traders. However, sometimes I am just plain wrong..... Nobody's perfect! Lol
Cop is getting grumpy and he needs to take his pills. I will return when my penchant for a cynical reply dissipates and the animal kingdom is peaceful once again. Cheers N and all :-)
  • #910
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:17am Oct 3, 2017 7:17am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Cop is getting grumpy and he needs to take his pills. I will return when my penchant for a cynical reply dissipates and the animal kingdom is peaceful once again. Cheers N and all :-)
ROFL!!!
  • #911
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:21am Oct 3, 2017 7:21am
Quoting nealpek
U/J just pulled back nicely. Trend is up, and it just entered into the quiet buying area of the previous day. To me it's saying, opportunity to ride the big boys coat tails". Don't follow my advice, just thinking out load!!!
Thanks for making me look at UJ, grabbed a few points on the short side and used your commentary as my exit. Could be my new exit strategy...
  • #912
  • Oct 3, 2017 7:46am Oct 3, 2017 7:46am
A lot of words spent for nothing, again......it is a global nursery
  • #913
  • Edited 9:12am Oct 3, 2017 8:01am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting Copernicus
These guys are the physicists and mathematicians you might find in nearly every large successful hedge fund of a long standing nature. The Ed Thorp's of the world or the Jim Simons.....and the list just goes on and on including the Nassim Taleb's et al. The majority of these very successful traders have a very firm background in mathematics or physics. This is by no means coincidental. These guys know how to examine complex problems and are intrigued in cracking this code.
Copernicus and I see things somewhat differently, but I think it's great that we nonetheless have a mutual respect for each other's point of view. If I understand correctly, Copernicus sees the market as representing some kind of code that can ultimately be cracked by mathematical processes. Whereas I see the market as a tug of war between competing fundamental forces (some of which I listed here) that are ultimately driven by belief systems and institutional agendas that can potentially change over time. The way I see it, human nature is fickle and emotions can't easily be quantified by a mathematical equation. The discretionary trader's task is to analyze these forces, and attempt to determine which one(s) are most likely to be overriding, thus establishing probable collective sentiment at any given point, keeping in mind that we only have to be correct more than 50% of the time to establish an 'edge', and that we can also occasionally get the direction right albeit for the wrong reason(s). My understanding is that many institutional traders study fundamentals, and operate in a similar way.

While I certainly don't dismiss rigorous quantitative methods -- the performance of the likes of Thorp and Simons speaks for itself -- I believe that there are many possible approaches toward becoming a successful trader. There are at least five trading 'giants' whom I either know personally, or I have been coached by. One of these gents uses primarily technical analysis and some statistics, and relies heavily on re-testing his system parameters as market conditions continuously change (while he managed some money of mine, he had 26 consecutive winning months); while another, an ex-prop trader, trades certain 'failure' patterns around key S/R zones that are outside the ADR. The third uses fundamental analysis almost exclusively (in 2012 he had more than GBP 5 million under management and was ranked the #2 FX trader in the world by the Barclay Hedge Index); while the fourth uses a wide variety of complex methods, predominantly fundamental and orderflow-based, that he has learned in his 30+ years as an institutional trader. The fifth uses strategies based around (by his own description) "macro, sentiment, market positioning, and execution". All of these folk trade large accounts for a living, and at least two are industry-regulated fund managers.

This tells me that it's not absolutely necessary to decipher CrucialPoint's brain teasers, or have Einsteinian insight into quantum mechanics, in order to become highly successful at this game. As Jack Schwager states in his preface to New Market Wizards, there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but the irony is that they are all very difficult to find.
  • #914
  • Oct 3, 2017 8:45am Oct 3, 2017 8:45am
Quoting hanover
{quote} (in 2012 he had more than GBP 5 million under management and was ranked the #2 FX trader in the world by the Barclay Hedge Index);
you speak about 5 billion or? because 5 million would be nothing as second best fx trader in the world, or was this no mistake?
what are then the many people who earn more money per year then he has under managment?
  • #915
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:11am Oct 3, 2017 9:11am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} you speak about 5 billion or? because 5 million would be nothing as second best fx trader in the world, or was this no mistake? what are then the many people who earn more money per year then he has under managment?
Is this the only part of the post that captured your attention?
  • #916
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:17am Oct 3, 2017 9:17am
Quoting hanover
{quote} ............. This tells me that it's not absolutely necessary to decipher CrucialPoint's brain teasers, or have Einsteinian insight into quantum mechanics, in order to become highly successful at this game. As Jack Schwager states in his preface to New Market Wizards, there are a million ways to make money in the markets, but the irony is that they are all very difficult to find.
Sure, but it is a way.
The advantage of that path is that you can overcome 90% of the discretionality, which is very hard to manage and to keep on consistency.
This is something that has to do with the specific individual psychology of each trader: I know big traders doing discretional trading with success, meanwhile for me it would be impossible to trade that way.
However I don't know any professional trader that has not the right mindset and this is a basic requirement.
  • #917
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:30am Oct 3, 2017 9:30am
Quoting havo
ok.. im back to check this thread out (someone pmd me thatit was back on track) can we talk about the edge on the candlestick and forget the general mumbo jumbo for a while?? lets be specific shall we? a single time base candlestick; the premise its that "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." in that sentence you have 2 key words "time" and "open" "OPEN" if you are watching lets say 1 hour candle.. once it close then of course the price closed above/below the open!! you need to drop to a lower time frame in order to "see" how...
i think this is part of what i mentioned before about seneca pilots method

where, instead of an hour candle for example, he would consider maybe half a session, 5 hours or so

where, every session at the moment it opens, that will be the open price and his trades are placed according to this price, ie if price leaves the open for an amount of time then returns to the open a trade will be placed to fade it, with the exception that if price reaches a high or low before this occurs, that trade will be taken instead. if the open is on top of a high or low, it becomes the same line and is traded the same, although if close but not overlapping, the priority always goes to the high/low line

where, he only uses a 15 minute chart, giving enough candles to print during the session to take trades should price reach these levels. one trade per session on average, a few hours max of casual monitoring at the session open to get trades into place, then let the trade play out. sometimes trades can be in place within the first half hour 45 minutes or so it all depends
  • #918
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:33am Oct 3, 2017 9:33am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Is this the only part of the post that captured your attention?
yes, rest is just basic, what should i say to this? yes , learn the ground basics step by step.
  • #919
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:36am Oct 3, 2017 9:36am
Quoting hanover
{quote} ...was ranked the #2 FX trader in the world by the Barclay Hedge Index

I don't see that rating. Where is it? Any direct link?
  • #920
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:36am Oct 3, 2017 9:36am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} yes, rest is just basic, what should i say to this? yes , learn the ground basics step by step.

You could say you trade much much bigger sums.
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