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  • #881
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:00am Oct 3, 2017 4:00am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi DT :-) I see where you are coming from but as you can probably tell...I demand a more rigorous proof of how things work and don't go by subjective outcomes like an assumption that someone is a successful trader or not. In attempting to satisfy myself that I am on the right track I need to go to the source. Namely the successful pro-traders who have a verified track record that I can lean on. When it comes to the question of who these guys are?....I don't have to look far for they are the guys who actually have a deep interest in how things...
its so much more easy to create working trading systems, if you start from ground with learning the complete basics and go up step for step. there is no code cracking, you need to adopt to some situations, need to know how avoid near all possible risks, and need to know in what easy steps a system is possible to find and build. then you will see you will have more ideas of systems then you can handle to test , backtest and program.

but to your point of "successful pro-traders who have a verified track record that I can lean on". thats a problem. i still work as a consultant for some clients to judge people and trading systems if this is true and useable or useless.
what you see there is same you see here very often and in any other places with signal , copy services,.....
people fake often what they can, often many even dont know that they faked, some extrem even hold it for normal that they only calculate balance and tell you that closed trade is only important and floating loss unimportant....

so you cant judge trade performances very easy, if you dont meet this person and speak with him about the topic. by meeting you always see if its true when you know what to ask and are prepared.

many funny fakes for:
- photoshoped many statements (many like it) - most was done showing a demo account as live account 8very good when you open 1000 demo accounts and then present best of it)
- used excel and calculated many things wrong (some dont know better , some with intention)
- open many live accounts and trade often opposite trades and present only best account (same with using martingale or other experts and using different setting and present account what survived)
- use own white label broker to fake each result or direct fake brokers
- dont calculated in any commission, sometimes even without spread (when excel used)
- traded with very small money and have only around 1 pip win per trade all together, but increasing money would simple increase spread and slippage to more then what they have wins
- hiding equqity, only showing balance
- showing pips gaining (one of the most useless points to look at), its telling saying nothing, and hiding money and percent equity gain/loss
- prepared over optimization backtests for algo
- prepared faked algo with hardcoded data inside when to do what trade or avoid a trade at what day and time, like 11.3.2016 open at 14.30 eurusd and close 17.20 (because history is known this is not difficult to have best of best results, same like overoptimization but in extremest level)
- using demoaccounts (no slippage, many system win with this all the time without any losses......... and so on...)
- present very high account balance, but simple got it by payed it in and not got it from trading win, or even more bad, by got money in by people from managed service pay in, but was hided (easy to see, but really people tried with such)
- crazy martingale systems, calculated not to fail till actual date because of optimazation , but can fail any day because future is not forward possible to optimize
- many all in trading system, with extrem win and each day margin call risk
- many trading system that was only stable for some years and in other years not was only losses. if a trading system is good it has in each year win or only small losses, or the trading rule is not there and more luck then rule. only when laws changed or big market changes happened or big events, so its logic why it started working or not working, then this can go as exception
- and and and

so your point of successful pro-traders who have a verified track record is really difficult, by not meet them and call the right questions.

and best judge is always, if shortterm intraday traders start presenting traderecord or explorer, often this is big fake or never ever professional., because professionals have problems to get all money in market with own volume,noone is interested in other people copy the system and get even more problems with voume in same trade, this would kill so much money for nothing, noone would do this if he has learned the basics from ground or learned with time that this is stupid.

so for intraday trading ,successfull pro trader and presenting verified track record in public is not possible so easy to see. its only possible when he is no pro trader , not sucessfull or not presenting. and ofcourse same time you will never know if its verified. for example in myfxbook you can fake so many things too.
  • #882
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:16am Oct 3, 2017 4:16am
Quoting Copernicus
I must admit...I have to agree with RR on the assumption that coordinated collective participant behaviour tends to emerge during 'crisis' events. It's not that I haven't tried in my trading career with fairly active market participation since the early 80's in trading the normal day to day market machinations through equities, options and derivatives. I am embarrassed to say that it is only in the last 7 years or so, that I have been able to see the wood for the trees and potentially turn trading from a game of chance to a wealth creator.....but...

Yep, I know that video, great food for thoughts.
The aggregation of data makes them predictable, the fat tail event works like an aggregative attractor indeed.
You made an excellent analysis of your trading behavior and now you know why you are profitable when a fat tail like crisis occurs, and you also know that your behavior doesn't work in normal conditions.
This is a great edge you have right in your hands as it is telling you what you should do.
Your approach till now has been the kind of an investor which is something absolutely different from the mind of a trader.
Assumed that a professional trader is able to trade profitably with any market condition, you cannot do the same things expecting different results: get rid of your beliefs, forget all that you are doing and look at things from a different perspective.
  • #883
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:33am Oct 3, 2017 4:33am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Yep, I know that video, great food for thoughts. The aggregation of data makes them predictable, the fat tail event works like an aggregative attractor indeed. You made an excellent analysis of your trading behavior and now you know why you are profitable when a fat tail like crisis occurs, and you also know that your behavior doesn't work in normal conditions. This is a great edge you have right in your hands as it is telling you what you should do. Your approach till now has been the kind of an investor which is something absolutely different...
Yep mate. I can honestly say that now I am very happy on the path I am on and don't actually need to ditch my beliefs. I wouldn't have it any other way. It is onward ever upward from here in terms of piece of mind and fulfillment of objectives. For me it is the systematic path with diversification. There is no riddle in that approach from my vantage as the logic is sound and I am fully aware of all it's implications. While some may call it investment as opposed to trading....well that is a 'definition' and an 'assumption' and we know what to do with them...../tic.
  • #884
  • Oct 3, 2017 4:41am Oct 3, 2017 4:41am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} its so much more easy to create working trading systems, if you start from ground with learning the complete basics and go up step for step. there is no code cracking, you need to adopt to some situations, need to know how avoid near all possible risks, and need to know in what easy steps a system is possible to find and build. then you will see you will have more ideas of systems then you can handle to test , backtest and program. but to your point of "successful pro-traders who have a verified track record that I can lean on". thats a...
Hi DT.

We may have our wires crossed here. When talking of pro-traders I am talking about regulated fund managers who are required by Law to submit independently audited accounts. It is not the same as a track record comprising a handful of trades on a MyFXbook.....c'mon. I'm a CFO for gods sake and know about audits.

The code cracking I am talking about is the level of rigor associated with developing a falsifiable theory such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis or Prospect Theory that earns a Nobel Prize or two. Not a theory that you develop blowing bubbles in your bathroom.

Let's just say nice weather.....and move on :-)
  • #885
  • Edited 5:01am Oct 3, 2017 4:50am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi DT. We may have our wires crossed here. When talking of pro-traders I am talking about regulated fund managers who are required by Law to submit independently audited accounts. It is not the same as a track record comprising a handful of trades on a MyFXbook.....c'mon. I'm a CFO for gods sake and know about audits. The code cracking I am talking about is the level of rigor associated with developing a falsifiable theory such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis or Prospect Theory that earns a Nobel Prize or two. Not a theory that you develop...
depends on your contry , what regulations you have for your fund. in most you dont have to show your trades.
but so many pros are not working in funds and managing funds as managed accounts even much much much less pro,often even total opposite of a pro.

if pro is only for you to have regulated managed funds, then i am out in this topic, because it will not say anything about professional behavior, only that its done for other, not if good or bad. doing things is fine, but depends how you do things. they are trader and manager when they are regulated fund manager, but the word "pro" they earn by other parts.
  • #886
  • Edited 5:18am Oct 3, 2017 5:07am | Edited 5:18am
Just some food for thought.... From some of your posts, the markets are perceived as some mysterious entity requiring thoughts from other dimensions our brains aren't equipped to deal with. This is the mindset that in fact cripples your ability to see through the uncertainty and randomness so often mentioned on these boards. I trade the same setup religiously, because it offers the greatest PROBABILITY of success. Of course there is uncertainty in the markets amongst the randomness you see. The exact setup I wait for will not pan out 100% of the time, but the probability of it working in my favour is high. This is the uncertainty I must deal with in my trading, which is what every trader must deal with. As this understanding is built into the model and structure of trading, it is accepted as normal. Everyone knows the big boys control the markets, and they don't move until they move them. These big boys leave clues in the "randomness" as they are filling their baskets for the next leg up. In my opinion, external indicators are useless because the indicators required for trading are visible on every chart, in the form of market turns, which every trader sees, but fails to truly understand. Every change in direction while in an uptrend for example, is an indicator providing valuable information about what will happen next. Some believe you must be a math or physics genius to "crack the code", but I say that is hogwash. Trading is impossible without at least some prior data to show where something happened. This is the whole point. I cannot tell you with absolute certainty, that price will turn here or there. I can only wait to see where the big boys have decided that these events will occur, watch how that area is developing, spot the clues they leave, and then trade the "signals" they always leave behind. The setups are always the same. The appearance of randomness is what keeps most traders confused, which is there goal. But it is within this randomness, that I am able to see "structure" over and over again. It's not magic, it's not a mystery, and any chart you throw in front of my eyes will be dissected in the same way. Screen time is the only way I was able to figure this out, along with realizing that what I was doing wasn't working. Believe me I am no genius, but I just kept staring at the charts, with a more simplistic view of what I was seeing, until it became clear, and you all have the same ability. Stop telling yourselves the markets are so complex requiring rediculously complex solutions. I'm telling you the answers you seek are right in front of your eyes, along with all the indicators you will ever come to need. I never step in front of the train anticipating that this is where it will turn, I simple react to the train after it shows me that this is where it decided to turn, the "Ultimate Indicator". Happy trading!!
  • #887
  • Oct 3, 2017 5:19am Oct 3, 2017 5:19am
Quoting nealpek
Just some food for thought.... From some of your posts, the markets are perceived as some mysterious entity requiring thoughts from other dimensions our brains aren't equipped to deal with. This is the mindset that in fact cripples your ability to see through the uncertainty and randomness so often mentioned on these boards. I trade the same setup religiously, because it offers the greatest PROBABILITY of success. Of course there is uncertainty in the markets amongst the randomness you see. The exact setup I wait for will not pan out 100% of the...
thats true, many people overthinking so easy thinks like trading a market created by people (not by nature).
there is no secret code inside the market, it cant be, if it would there would be only until some volume (and this only for secret,if it would be official known then ofcourse the code will even disappear very fast, because noone will stand on the opposite site of this trade,so no trade on this points are coming), then there are no new opposite trade partner and you cant place any more trade, thats the market, so it happens to each trading system all the time, if you then extend volume you even start to change your own "code" and trade signals, because you change because of your volume what you calculated without your volume in market , thats the funny part many cant recognize.ofcourse many are to small to see effects from their own trading in market, but when you do it many years with sucess you will see it in intready trading at least, for longer timeframes you need more time.

and the big boy trades /actions are all inside the charts already, so already calculated in all the time.

you simple create your trading systems, trade it until possible volume whats in market for the trading system maximum chance/risk ratio (or what you know, you come out the market with no big problems or is saved by options in best case), and then add other trading system for rest money if you grow more and more....
  • #888
  • Oct 3, 2017 5:22am Oct 3, 2017 5:22am
Quoting nealpek
Just some food for thought.... From some of your posts, the markets are perceived as some mysterious entity requiring thoughts from other dimensions our brains aren't equipped to deal with. This is the mindset that in fact cripples your ability to see through the uncertainty and randomness so often mentioned on these boards. I trade the same setup religiously, because it offers the greatest PROBABILITY of success. Of course there is uncertainty in the markets amongst the randomness you see. The exact setup I wait for will not pan out 100% of the...
See first before acting ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #889
  • Oct 3, 2017 5:29am Oct 3, 2017 5:29am
Exactly 4for4. If you must qualify me in a category, I would be designated as a "reactionary" trader. As i do not possess enough funds to move the markets, I must follow those that do, and spot their moves and intentions as they "plan and take the time to fill their baskets for the next pending move up or down". It's the only way I can benefit from their abilities to move the markets. There is always enough time to enter a trade, but I can't trade what I don't see.....
  • #890
  • Oct 3, 2017 5:49am Oct 3, 2017 5:49am
Quoting nealpek
Exactly 4for4. If you must qualify me in a category, I would be designated as a "reactionary" trader. As i do not possess enough funds to move the markets, I must follow those that do, and spot their moves and intentions as they "plan and take the time to fill their baskets for the next pending move up or down". It's the only way I can benefit from their abilities to move the markets. There is always enough time to enter a trade, but I can't trade what I don't see.....
Right on Neal ... Sometimes I even wait for a 2nd-chance to appear (See - Wait for a trigger - Act on 2nd-chance) ... And to make up those missed first opportunities, I occasionally pyramid my existing "correct" trades ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #891
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:09am Oct 3, 2017 6:09am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Yep mate. I can honestly say that now I am very happy on the path I am on and don't actually need to ditch my beliefs. I wouldn't have it any other way. It is onward ever upward from here in terms of piece of mind and fulfillment of objectives. For me it is the systematic path with diversification. There is no riddle in that approach from my vantage as the logic is sound and I am fully aware of all it's implications. While some may call it investment as opposed to trading....well that is a 'definition' and an 'assumption' and we know what...
Touchez......our language needs definitions to express a concept, there is no way around; the important thing is to be aware that it is only a way to describe something, and I'm sure you have well understood what I meant.
If you are going forward also with diversification, go ahead; each one has to find his way, once the basics are well understood.

However, should I diversificate my portfolio I would do it extending my activity on different instruments, like stocks, options, commodities, because currencies are all connected with one another; therefore diversificating within forex doesn't make sense.
Well most likely you already know this, just thinking out loud.
  • #892
  • Edited 6:28am Oct 3, 2017 6:17am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Touchez......our language needs definitions to express a concept, there is no way around; the important thing is to be aware that it is only a way to describe something, and I'm sure you have well understood what I meant. If you are going forward also with diversification, go ahead; each one has to find his way, once the basics are well understood. However, should I diversificate my portfolio I would do it extending my activity on different instruments, like stocks, options, commodities, because currencies are all connected with one another;...
Good points S. Diversification across asset classes and timeframes helps...but all is becoming more correlated now as risk is now fully dispersed through the markets through central bank pumping of $ into the systems.... but there is no substitute to structured diversification through deliberate system design to attack varying market conditions. Back in 2008 it was an easier game to see where the shit was about to fly, namely CDO's, mezzanine debt and securitised mortgages....but it is a tougher game now amongst asset classes to find where the ticking timebomb lies.....hence the need to diversify as wide as I can get in liquid instruments (via derivatives including forex) to cash in on the bonanza when it strikes with leverage.
  • #893
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:28am Oct 3, 2017 6:28am
Just for fun, anyone have any thoughts on U/J direction?
  • #894
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:31am Oct 3, 2017 6:31am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Good points S. Diversification across asset classes and timeframes helps...but all is becoming more correlated now as risk is now fully dispersed through the markets through central bank pumping of $ into the systems.... but there is no substitute to structured diversification through deliberate system design to attack varying market conditions. Back in 2008 it was an easier game to see where the shit was about to fly, namely CDO's, mezzanine debt and securitised mortgages....but it is a tougher game now amongst asset classes to find where...
Do you see where you always end up? You are aware of that structured diversification is becoming each day more difficult and is no more that efficient but you are convinced that this is the only way. This is the reason you are not getting what you desire.

"Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world."
A.Einstein
  • #895
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:35am Oct 3, 2017 6:35am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} Do you see where you always end up? You are aware of that structured diversification is becoming each day more difficult and is no more that efficient but you are convinced that this is the only way. This is the reason you are not getting what you desire. "Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." A.Einstein
No.....we have crossed wires....instrument and timeframe diversification is becoming more and more difficult.....but system diversification provides the solution...for example diversification across 5 separate systems in a portfolio attacking different market conditions while minimizing risk when those conditions are not present.....sheeeeesh :-)
  • #896
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:38am Oct 3, 2017 6:38am
Anyone have any comments on the direction of anything?
  • #897
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:40am Oct 3, 2017 6:40am
Quoting nealpek
Anyone have any comments on the direction of anything?
This thread will eventually end :-)
  • #898
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:42am Oct 3, 2017 6:42am
thought these were supposed to be trading discussion boards. does anyone trade anything?
  • #899
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:45am Oct 3, 2017 6:45am
Quoting nealpek
Just for fun, anyone have any thoughts on U/J direction?
It's moving toward High-of-11Jul but, I think, not without a substantial correction first ...
I'm now waiting for that correction before trying to plan anything ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #900
  • Oct 3, 2017 6:50am Oct 3, 2017 6:50am
Quoting nealpek
Just for fun, anyone have any thoughts on U/J direction?
I normally only trade EURUSD, but, just for fun, and mind you, I'm a scalper, I'd like to think I'd be shorting at the moment.
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