Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick | Page 40 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

An Edge for an Edge (System Development) 116 replies

Beating the Odds - Edge Within a Single Candlestick (Explained) 71 replies

Looking for higher timeframe candlestick overlay indicator 10 replies

top 2 single candlestick pattern 7 replies

There is No Edge in a Single Candlestick 64 replies

Attachments: Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick
Exit Attachments

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #781
  • Oct 2, 2017 12:11am Oct 2, 2017 12:11am
I think time is an illusion in all around us. I eat because I am hungry, I sleep because I am sleepy not because of time.
Life is just a sequence of events one after the other, actions, reactions, causes, randomness, non randomness. Time was invented just to give us an information so one can catch the train in the morning.
People dying not because of time or old age, but because the cause such heart failure or disease.
Example:
My mom was diagnosed with rare but aggressive cancer called LMS (2 years ago). It has been like one big bull market for cancer. Keep growing and growing inside the body. (from stage 1 to stage 3). Doctors trying to short this market by applying this or that drug but it only slow it down creating small retracements or consolidations, if it was visible on the chart.
I was wandering if cancer look at the watch and say it to it self, "Its been 12 months, time to progress to stage 2". No.
It just grow and grow left, right, up down as fast and as hard as it can, looking for "path of least resistance" (I wonder if humans work as hard as they can-we would be much more developed in everything incl. cancer treatments)
In conclusion, at the end, it is boom-bust cycle for cancer as well. Cancer will shrink and die, not because of time, but because of EVENT of patient dying.
  • #782
  • Oct 2, 2017 12:58am Oct 2, 2017 12:58am
Quoting Bkk
I think time is an illusion in all around us. I eat because I am hungry, I sleep because I am sleepy not because of time. Life is just a sequence of events one after the other, actions, reactions, causes, randomness, non randomness. Time was invented just to give us an information so one can catch the train in the morning. People dying not because of time or old age, but because the cause such heart failure or disease. Example: My mom was diagnosed with rare but aggressive cancer called LMS (2 years ago). It has been like one big bull market for...
Good point. Time is just a coordinate system or method of accounting to keep track of causal processes. :-)
  • #783
  • Oct 2, 2017 1:08am Oct 2, 2017 1:08am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Secret? hell no. I would be damned if I am sound like CP and start getting hate mail. I have found no such secret! I am just sharing my observations with some decent validation from my live trading but real success to me will come only after 3+ years of consistency. I am not there yet but hope to declare my victory some day :-) I am a strong believer of performance decay related to position sizing. Bigger the lot size, faster the degradation of net performance. It could be because of mental factors (greed,fear etc) or market structure related...
But if you explain yourself, which is not like CP who leaves a permanent riddle....then that is the art of a discussion and communication between human beings where you can share information as opposed to doing all the hard yards yourself :-)
  • #784
  • Oct 2, 2017 1:24am Oct 2, 2017 1:24am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree and I have shared as much as I can in literally 100s of deleted posts these past few months along with screenshot and actual code snippets of my automation just to shed as much light as possible for a brief period. Some appreciate it and some have called me out on being full of shit lol
...and I have learned shed loads from you and personally appreciate it. I hope that it has been a two way street at least. That's the beauty of this forum. It is not a Buddhist monastery where learning is a one way street but a venue to share, bounce around and discuss ideas. You and others here have allowed me to pinch or modify useful bits of info that help my personal cause out.

PS I just wish you didn't delete your posts as I like a permanent record of referral.
  • #785
  • Oct 2, 2017 2:02am Oct 2, 2017 2:02am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Absolutely! Your posts are always insightful and fun to read. It's a do or die situation for me to keep max drawdown capped at 15% and prove consistent profits for 3+yrs. Otherwise, all this is just talk and nothing else to leave as a legacy for my kids :-( I would want nothing more than to prove to my significant other that trading is not gambling lol

Hehehe. You and me both. She who must be obeyed :-)
  • #786
  • Oct 2, 2017 2:21am Oct 2, 2017 2:21am
Quoting Copernicus
PS I just wish you didn't delete your posts as I like a permanent record of referral.
C. you read my mind.....
  • #787
  • Oct 2, 2017 3:13am Oct 2, 2017 3:13am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Absolutely! Your posts are always insightful and fun to read. It's a do or die situation for me to keep max drawdown capped at 15% and prove consistent profits for 3+yrs. Otherwise, all this is just talk and nothing else to leave as a legacy for my kids :-( I would want nothing more than to prove to my significant other that trading is not gambling lol
It is truly a poker game of different hue. Loser pays winners.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #788
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:35am Oct 2, 2017 4:35am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Secret? hell no. I would be damned if I am sound like CP and start getting hate mail. I have found no such secret! I am just sharing my observations with some decent validation from my live trading but real success to me will come only after 3+ years of consistency. I am not there yet but hope to declare my victory some day :-) I am a strong believer of performance decay related to position sizing. Bigger the lot size, faster the degradation of net performance. It could be because of mental factors (greed,fear etc) or market structure related...
Thanks VEEFX for the detailed insights. Much appreciated...
  • #789
  • Oct 2, 2017 4:56am Oct 2, 2017 4:56am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Right. No technical indicator-based analysis whatsoever. My trade outcome results in the direction of currency strength/weakness BUT I don't go looking for strength or weakness like others who play the strength/weakness game with complex calculations, indicators, dashboards, baskets etc. I also dont look at tick charts. My reference to last tick was only in relation to the tick that closes the current candle turning it into a "constant" point of reference in the infinite space of historical constants. It is an unbelievable feeling when signals...
indeed
  • #790
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:00am Oct 2, 2017 5:00am
Quoting Bkk
I think time is an illusion in all around us. I eat because I am hungry, I sleep because I am sleepy not because of time. Life is just a sequence of events one after the other, actions, reactions, causes, randomness, non randomness. Time was invented just to give us an information so one can catch the train in the morning. People dying not because of time or old age, but because the cause such heart failure or disease. Example: My mom was diagnosed with rare but aggressive cancer called LMS (2 years ago). It has been like one big bull market for...
Exactly
  • #791
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:11am Oct 2, 2017 5:11am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Then you are not following what I am saying. Of course there are multi-timeframe indicators you can put on a chart. Of course you can project all kinds of crap on a chart which references external factors (news indicator etc). What I am saying is. A Strategy that purely relies on A retail Spot FX Trader trading with a retail broker (ECN/STP or whatever) Trading A single Currency Spot FX instrument Trading A single Timeframe (price x time) on a Candlestick chart (not a tick chart) Using indicators that strictly derive information on price...
what about just trading the previous highs and lows, and sometimes opening bounce like in this thread

that method does not involve intensive multi time frame anaylsis, just an occasional check. most times of the month one would seldom need to reference another time frame given they have previous daily/weekly/monthly highs and lows marked and trade them accordingly

the op even mentioned his desire to not use charts

edit: i realize this is not per your must have indicators requirement for this test. still an example of a bare basics method of trading that does not rely on multi time frame analysis
  • #792
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:23am Oct 2, 2017 5:23am
[quote=Copernicus;10346957]{quote} You said it :-) You need to really immerse yourself in this brain teaser to make sense of it.

'block universe'. In a totally encapsulated causal universe that is not embedded in a wider system, 'all of time' is said to actually exist. What differs is simply the different perspectives taken from the different vantages, or the different ways you slice the spacetime block, which is a very necessary outcome for time if you want a consistent universe that displays cause and effect from each distinctive reference frame. If you apply this to the markets which are a nested financial system sitting within a wider universe, you quickly realise that the financial markets are not purely self contained systems like our universe is. For example the participants of the markets that include the humans or their creations (algo's) draw on wider causative factors for their existence than the financial markets themselves. The complexity of the financial markets comprises the causative factors in the financial markets PLUS the causative factors arising in the wider system. This just makes the puzzle of interpreting them even more complex. It's the same when you look into the processes found in a living cell and recognise that their are distinct processes attributable to the cellular environment and additional processes attributable to the wider system within which the cell operates in. It is just processes within processes ad infinitum wherever you look.

Fortunately the universe provides a maximum limit to this riddle of the Matryoshka doll in that it is self-contained and is 'all there is'....unless you subscribe to the multiverse....but then you just broaden the definition of universe to contain this plurality of systems.

*********************

Definitions are another self-limiting habit of human mind.
What would be your conclusions would the term "universe" mean " uni-verse = towards one direction only"?
Wouldn't it mean a plurality of systems going in the same direction, so that they all are evolving, as evolution is the only purpose of Universe?
Try to re-read your explanation (which is unexceptionable) from this perspective, you will solve some doubts.
  • #793
  • Oct 2, 2017 5:54am Oct 2, 2017 5:54am
Quoting strongtrader
Definitions are another self-limiting habit of human mind. What would be your conclusions would the term "universe" mean " uni-verse = towards one direction only"? Wouldn't it mean a plurality of systems going in the same direction, so that they all are evolving, as evolution is the only purpose of Universe? Try to re-read your explanation (which is unexceptionable) from this perspective, you will solve some doubts.
Inserted Video
  • #794
  • Edited 7:06am Oct 2, 2017 6:15am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting strongtrader
Definitions are another self-limiting habit of human mind. What would be your conclusions would the term "universe" mean " uni-verse = towards one direction only"? Wouldn't it mean a plurality of systems going in the same direction, so that they all are evolving, as evolution is the only purpose of Universe? Try to re-read your explanation (which is unexceptionable) from this perspective, you will solve some doubts.
Good point. I am not sure however whether there is a greater answer than 'everything that exists, has existed or will exist'. What can alter however is the different configurations this total state can take under classical physics.

Under current 'classical' cosmology, there is a temporal sequence according to the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics of universal evolution from low entropy to high entropy determined by the probabilities assigned from going from one state to another (eg. we can break the egg but we can't put humpty dumpty together again)........

.....however under a quantum definition there is the 'frozen state' of the universal quantum wavefunction.

If the current 'classical' temporal sequence goes from one of exceptional low entropy (a specific form of ordered state) in the conditions of the Big Bang towards high entropy (another type of ordered state) at the end of it all with the heat death.... as most cosmologists suggest, this may not be a finite sequence provided that the end state of perfect homogeneity 'flips' to become the commencement state of a reversed evolving chronology of universal states.

This is allowed by probability provided that these forms of order in which the universe vacillates between is a unique distinctive state as between these two unique states, probabilities of a blended universal state configuration are always greater than the unique end points of this probability ensemble. This is suggested in the great read of 'Timelessness' which is a masterpiece of gedanken thought from Gevin Giorbran. A very convincing read which tends to change one's perspective on things especially regarding the 2nd Law....which is very hard to put asunder.

....anyway, this is a trading forum and not a pop sci forum or philosophy forum (which is a bit of a shame)....so I am going to take a back seat for a while. Otherwise I will get the WTF?? expressions from the trading community here :-)
  • #795
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:14am Oct 2, 2017 9:14am
[quote=Copernicus;10347857]{quote} Good point. I am not sure however whether there is a greater answer than 'everything that exists, has existed or will exist'. What can alter however is the different configurations this total state can take under classical physics........

That's ok, albeit I do not think this is phylosophy in its common meaning; it's a very different way to think to reality that is already providing a reliable answer to many of the main unanswered questions since eons, and it is funny to see that most of those answers were already known by our ancients. Thereafter everything has been misunderstood and at least part of that knowledge most likely has been hidden.

I know a lot of people is already thinking what the hell this stuff has to do with trading; hardly to be conceived but it plays an important role in understanding the logic that lies behind. Once you have the logic things gets clear.
  • #796
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:28am Oct 2, 2017 9:28am
Quoting strongtrader
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Good point. I am not sure however whether there is a greater answer than 'everything that exists, has existed or will exist'. What can alter however is the different configurations this total state can take under classical physics........ That's ok, albeit I do not think this is phylosophy in its common meaning; it's a very different way to think to reality that is already providing a reliable answer to many of the main unanswered questions since eons, and it is funny to see that most of those answers were already
...
you are sure about this?

i would bet against. i know mabye only 200 persons who trade good, most came from bank or work in, but noone ever thought about this in relation to trading, they dont like to do it complicated, make it simple is the word, and doing easy things like trading overcomplicated is also an art, but i dont think many good traders try this art to trade, when its so easy possible without thinking about this. how many people do you know ,who are good traders and thinking about this topic and think this is trading important content (i thought you speak about only for fun, not really that you learned something about for trading)? the timegap you have between you see informations and until its in your brain transfered and processed is more important for trading then anything you mentioned about time here.

its fun to read this basic stuff in scientific journals , but in trading you really believe with overthinking ,and making things more complicated then it is ,is the best way? most people have exactly because of this problems with trading, they think to much.
  • #797
  • Edited 12:18pm Oct 2, 2017 9:43am | Edited 12:18pm
Quoting grrbear
{quote} what about just trading the previous highs and lows, and sometimes opening bounce like in this thread that method does not involve intensive multi time frame analysis, just an occasional check. most times of the month one would seldom need to reference another time frame given they have previous daily/weekly/monthly highs and lows marked and trade them accordingly the op even mentioned his desire to not use charts edit: i realize this is not per your must have indicators requirement...
I think many will disagree with me what i am about to write about HH, HL, Highs, Lows and wicks in general.I think even RParm might as the one hour HL of daily is one of his constants. I completely ignore them. Wicks are meaningless to me in my entries. They are not "Constants" to me. Wicks especially Tip of wicks are primarily price manipulation zones. I don't go chasing after them. I don't analyze them. I don't believe trend lines can introduce consistency. Drawing lines on charts does an irreversible amount of damage to your focal interpretation. BUT there will ALWAYS be Wicks created till the end of time....forever. They will exists as long as price moves along. Double jeopardy is also that positions placed on extreme wicks also have the highest rate of surviving (I wrote a recent post in Moneyzilla's thread which I could not delete in time so check it out). I don't look for chasing wicks. I focus on the process which will get me on the wick (not always but most of the time). I ignore wicks but factor them in analysing the quality of my signals (trade outcome) via max profit/loss potential.

While I am on this topic, I will also piss off a lot by saying the traditional wisdom of HH and HL does not equate to uptrend. It only equates to what the naked eye wants to see.

In general, I am challenged with explaining my point across so hope I made some sense.
Staying in my lane...
  • #798
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:51am Oct 2, 2017 9:51am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote}{quote} you are sure about this? i would bet against. i know mabye only 200 persons who trade good, most came from bank or work in, but noone ever thought about this in relation to trading, they dont like to do it complicated, make it simple is the word, and doing easy things like trading overcomplicated is also an art, but i dont think many good traders try this art to trade, when its so easy possible without thinking about this. how many people do you know ,who are good traders and thinking about this topic and think this is trading important...
The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd.
The one who walks alone, il likely to find himself in places no one has ever been.
A. Einstein

It is funny that you talk about simplicity considered what you wrote about your way of trading; it is even more funny that you pretend to know how I trade and my level of consistency with trading.
Trading does is simple, almost boring; what is not easy is understanding what is trading and what is market, that is necessary to make things easy and to make profits with high consistency.

I've noticed that you spend your words to criticize here and there instead of expressing your view in a constructive and collaborative manner : this kind of comunication brings only negativity and is bothering a lot.
So I'll give you the advice that if you insist to comunicate this way, i'll put you in my ignoring list without no more advice.
  • #799
  • Edited 10:12am Oct 2, 2017 9:53am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone, il likely to find himself in places no one has ever been. A. Einstein It is funny that you talk about simplicity considered what you wrote about your way of trading; it is even more funny that you pretend to know how I trade. Trading does is simple, almost boring; what is not easy is understanding what is trading and what is market, that is necessary to make things easy and to make profits with consistency. I've noticed that you spend your...
yes, true, but this from a Einstein is about scientific research, you have to learn it what kind of topic someone is telling something, or you will get big problems in your life.

the one who want think about many things to much will lose many time for nothing and makes life extrem complicated. me
or in other people word: change what you can, accept what you cant change and learn to differ from both.

i dont criticize you, you do easy thinks very complictaed, thats your point. i only told you easy thinking is better in this easy topic of trading, we speak about a complete easy market with simple rules. making all more complicated then it is , is often not best way.

we think complete different about this, thatswhy you often think i critizise you.
for me understanding the market is so easy, most easy topic possible. its a human developed market. not a market over1 billion yearsold and by nature. its more complicated to have many trading system to bring all volume in market you want to trade.
so complete different then you, for you trading a system until whatever amount is easy (because of whatever reason) and the market is difficult for you.

maybe i am wrong and i cant understand what you important found out over "time", thats so important in trading, then i say sorry.
  • #800
  • Oct 2, 2017 10:25am Oct 2, 2017 10:25am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} yes, true, but this from a Einstein is about scientific research, you have to learn it what kind of topic someone is telling something, or you will get big problems in your life. i dont criticize you, you do easy thinks very complictaed, thats your point. i only told you easy thinking is better in this easy topic of trading, we speak about a complete easy market with simple rules. making all more complicated then it is , is often not best way. we think complete different about this, thatswhy you often think i critizise you. for me understanding...
Look, it is not only about time, there are a lot of informations here coming also from Copernicus and Medici.
I'd like you to make an effort to understand fully what we are talking about, because the feeling is that you are missing the point.
95% or more of the people approaching to trading fail and they all do learn the same old stuff; so, maybe, if you try to do different things you may succeed instead (i'm saying you as a general you, not referring to you).
Most of the people reading threads in FF are not able to trade for a living but they would like to.
I've been one of them in the past, so I know how difficult is to uncover this brain teaser, then I made it; I'm sure i still have to learn because this is an always learning field, but I made it; and what i'm doing here is to offer clues about a different point of view to help newbies to see the way they should walk on to succeed.
There are some very good traders here in FF, they have been very precious for my learning process and I began to learn when I began to speak their same language. So think to it.
1 trader viewing now