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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,861
  • Sep 29, 2017 5:48am Sep 29, 2017 5:48am
Now consider the fact that most of those who sold at 33773 have been stopped out. A stopped out trader could react in 2 ways: take the loss and esc the market at least temporary. Or reverse his position in the opposite direction. In both cases this will lead to an acceleration above the weak level. Then, if new serious traders will pile on it, you could see continuation in the new direction. If instead no stronger trader will add his new position above it, you may also see a stall above that particular level and, eventually, a new correction in the opposite direction or balance. Sometimes the game is only to go and take out the weak stops in order to remove weak sellers from a market and, after that, continue in the previous direction.

So it is very important to monitor the reaction above such levels in order to understand what kind of game is occurring.

In this particular case, we also have a good reason to continue higher as we have our main composite poc at 3397.
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  • #4,862
  • Sep 29, 2017 5:53am Sep 29, 2017 5:53am
33877: what is it? It is the current half back*, meaning the 50% retracement of the entire GB session range. It is an other daily time frame level, mostly used by weak hands. If the price stops at such level what kind of info did you get? You know that weak hands sold there and that those who are supporting the action upside are currently not strong enough to pass through it without stopping. So you currently know that both sellers and buyers in current market situation are weak.

And this is an other precious information that you can use in the next market development.

*it's obviously a dynamic reference as it changes any time the range of the session changes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-29_12-56-42_sessions.png Size: 101 KB
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  • #4,863
  • Sep 29, 2017 6:18am Sep 29, 2017 6:18am
Quoting Lock
..... In this particular case, we also have a good reason to continue higher as we have our main composite poc at 3397.
And, as normal in such conditions, here we are again at composite poc 3397.

Where btw, I scaled out some of my longs. But this is a personal decision.

And, as you see reading and watching previous posts: IT IS NOT A CHERRY PICKING
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  • #4,864
  • Sep 29, 2017 6:21am Sep 29, 2017 6:21am
I'll be off for a while, have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #4,865
  • Sep 29, 2017 8:33am Sep 29, 2017 8:33am
Pit US opened with a substantial gap downside (from yesterday pit low 34243). If current composite poc 3397 could be evaded before speech and if this new gap will be preserved at least partially, odds are initially for continuation downside.

next possible level to correct downside is yesterday GB low tag of a previous Pit poor low at 34435.

Remember always that in case of failure downside (meaning if we will have the new pit gap retraced back up above yesterday pit low 34243) we could instead have a substantial correction upside up to 3586 zone (as a direction)
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  • #4,866
  • Sep 29, 2017 8:38am Sep 29, 2017 8:38am
First step to go lower is to get acceptation below Wednesday pit session low at 33724. If not, all the way back to poc 3397.
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  • #4,867
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:11am Sep 29, 2017 9:11am
Quoting Lock
Pit US opened with a substantial gap downside (from yesterday pit low 34243). If current composite poc 3397 could be evaded before speech and if this new gap will be preserved at least partially, odds are initially for continuation downside. next possible level to correct downside is yesterday GB low tag of a previous Pit poor low at 34435. Remember always that in case of failure downside (meaning if we will have the new pit gap retraced back up above yesterday pit low 34243) we could instead have a substantial...
Remember that if reached and taken out (34435), we have to obtain acceptation and acceleration below it. If not watch out for a possible retracement to composite poc 3397.

If we will get it and obtain acceptation below it, we will be inside a previous gap upside (down to 32614) that will became a possible zone to fill.
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  • #4,868
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:27am Sep 29, 2017 9:27am
33525 is GB low but it is also overnight low: for any serious continuation downside acceptation also below it is absolutely required. So monitor carefully to it as for now we got a first rejection there.
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  • #4,869
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:47am Sep 29, 2017 9:47am
Quoting Lock
First step to go lower is to get acceptation below Wednesday pit session low at 33724. If not, all the way back to poc 3397.
No acceptation below 33724, Wednesday Pit low, And here we are at composite poc 3397.

Now we got PreUS poor high at 34093 as a possible target, always remembering that we did not solve 33435 downside that remain weak and poor. (Carry forward this info if something will go wrong upside)

If serious continuation upside will be obtained (instead of a possible balance ending around 3397) the first step is to fill the new gap downside up to yesterday pit session low to 33243. The second one will be to obtain acceptation above it.
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  • #4,870
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:54am Sep 29, 2017 9:54am
Possible fire cracker effect upside.
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  • #4,871
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:55am Sep 29, 2017 9:55am
Quoting Lock
{quote} No acceptation below 33724, Wednesday Pit low, And here we are at composite poc 3397. Now we got PreUS poor high at 34093 as a possible target, always remembering that we did not solve 33435 downside that remain weak and poor. (Carry forward this info if something will go wrong upside) If serious continuation upside will be obtained (instead of a possible balance ending around 3397) the first step is to fill the new gap downside up to yesterday pit session low to 33243. The second one will be to obtain...

Taken out.
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  • #4,872
  • Sep 29, 2017 9:58am Sep 29, 2017 9:58am
Quoting Lock
Possible fire cracker effect upside.
If we managed to evade with volume composite poc 3397, if we managed to fill the new gap downside and finally if we managed to be accepted above yesterday pit low 34243

If all these condition will be matched we got space to 3586.
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  • #4,873
  • Sep 29, 2017 10:01am Sep 29, 2017 10:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} .... If serious continuation upside will be obtained (instead of a possible balance ending around 3397) the first step is to fill the new gap downside up to yesterday pit session low to 33243. The second one will be to obtain acceptation above it.
Gap filled: watch out now. It is a crucial zone to determine possible continuation upside.
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  • #4,874
  • Sep 29, 2017 10:23am Sep 29, 2017 10:23am
Note that yesterday GB close is at 3432. We operated below it all day long. And today we got an inside GB session (meaning that its range 33525-34227 is inside the previous GB session range 33422-34243). So we are in a balance condition for GB participants. GB participants will be involved until 18:00+1GMT. So until that time yesterday GB close is an important reference. Monitor for it too.
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  • #4,875
  • Sep 29, 2017 10:36am Sep 29, 2017 10:36am
For now we got no acceptation at all back inside yesterday Pit session range. We simply tagged its low 34243. That remain weak. At the same time for now we have a double distribution profile for current Pit session (we got clean space between a lower distribution high at 33865 and the upper distribution low at 34043.)
So an other factor to evaluate possible continuation upside is to monitor for the preservation of these 2 currently separated distributions. Because this separation could mean change. If preserved. If not, I think we could see liquidation or a close in balance around composite poc 3397.
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  • #4,876
  • Sep 29, 2017 11:06am Sep 29, 2017 11:06am
Well, I'm off for today. Have a nice continuation and a good weekend. Best, L.
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  • #4,877
  • Edited 1:08am Oct 2, 2017 12:55am | Edited 1:08am
2017/10/02 MONDAY 08:06+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Cable is in balance and Friday we got an inside GB session (33525-34227 GB session Friday range is inside the previous GB session range 33422-34243) So balance rules will apply at GB open.

We could have different scenarios here as GB could open inside Friday range or outside it. In the case it will open inside it we could remain in balance or attempt a break above or below Friday GB session range 33525-34227. In the case of a failure in one particular direction , the natural next direction will be the opposite side of the balance.

If GB will open outside Friday GB range (so with a new gap) we could preserve this new gap and continue in its direction or retrace it coming back into balance.

On a major scale I suggest to consider the simple fact that we are in a short term trend downside underlined by the one time framing lower action of the last 6 GB sessions. Also we are in an attempted break downside from inside GB week low 3468. So if this week will close below this level we could have an acceptation of the break downside.

At the same time we left above a huge amount of weaknesses up to 3586. So if something will go wrong downside we have a big space above to easily retrace.

NOTE: I do not like current Sydney poor high (34023) as a month high. This does not mean it cannot resist but I suggest to carry forward this info. Also remember that last week we spent most of the time around composite poc 3397. We will need volume to evade it. And finally take note of China bank holiday today and next days: overnight sessions will be weaker than normal.
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  • #4,878
  • Edited 3:19am Oct 2, 2017 1:50am | Edited 3:19am
In the case of a succeeding break downside the next visible interesting level is 32674 (previous minor bracket high). Then we have the brexit low 32273 and the next lower composite poc at 3206.

The break in order to succeed during upcoming GB session required acceptation below Friday GB low 33525 and Thursday GB low 343422. If not all the way back to composite poc 3397 first and then eventually to the opposite side of the GB balance 34227(Friday GB high)-34243* 26(Thursday GB high)

*sorry for the typo
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  • #4,879
  • Oct 2, 2017 2:10am Oct 2, 2017 2:10am
Attempted break. Watch out.
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  • #4,880
  • Oct 2, 2017 3:15am Oct 2, 2017 3:15am
We got acceptation below Friday and Thursday lows (33525 and 33422), meaning acceptation below balance. Note anyway the very elongated A period. And the low volume. Monitor the situation carefully as overnight, as said, was without China. 33144 was an important level and it could provide some support. In case of continuation downside you know where it could go. And unless we will have rejection and acceptation back inside Friday GB session range, the break is succeeding for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-02_10-20-32_break attempted.png Size: 48 KB
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