Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

post your best ea which you have used on a live account 4 replies

Post Your Best EAs Here 23 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Post Your Best Indicator Thread 21 replies

Your Best Long Term Trade Is To Short USD/JPY 24 replies

Attachments: Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart
Exit Attachments

Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

  • #81
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:35am Sep 21, 2017 2:35am
Interesting charts. That drop on Corn if the support breaks is a good bet I think.

There is a commodity missing from this consideration. What if the total behaviour is a 'sum' of the general supply of grain around the world. I think you need to add Rice into the mix, and any other grains that measure up as staple foods (which don't spring to my mind just now....).
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #82
  • Sep 26, 2017 10:04pm Sep 26, 2017 10:04pm
For anyone that follows this thread, you're already well aware i love my multi-year breakouts. These are a few that caught my eye today. I still have a decent amount of exposure to a pullback because I think one is long overdue, but here are a couple that I think might make sense. I haven't done any research on the companies themselves, so please do your own work. Happy Hunting!

$APD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_APD.png Size: 127 KB


$JBHT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_JBHT.png Size: 118 KB


$NSC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_NSC.png Size: 136 KB


$PCAR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_PCAR.png Size: 136 KB


$TXT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_TXT.png Size: 120 KB


$URI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-26_URI.png Size: 116 KB
  • #83
  • Sep 30, 2017 12:08am Sep 30, 2017 12:08am
What are people's thoughts on Emerging Markets?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-30_EEM.png Size: 238 KB
  • #84
  • Sep 30, 2017 12:29am Sep 30, 2017 12:29am
Also, what are people's thoughts on Brexit? I don't think I ever posted my EWU (UK Stock ETF listed here in the states) chart.

EWU (as shown) is USD denominated ETF, so will have USD/GBP Currency noise in it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-30_EWU.png Size: 169 KB
  • #85
  • Sep 30, 2017 10:32am Sep 30, 2017 10:32am
This is what happens when I have a few cocktails and draw on charts! hehehe.

Anyway, thoughts are always welcome from those with or without a position.
  • #86
  • Sep 30, 2017 2:57pm Sep 30, 2017 2:57pm
InfinitySL, from where do you get your continuous contracts for the Ags? I've never seen any so plausibly accurate.
  • #87
  • Sep 30, 2017 5:23pm Sep 30, 2017 5:23pm
It's actually a really good question because in TradeStation if you just use the @S, @W, or @C for Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn respectively, the charts are all messed up. There's a way in TS to adjust these for the continuous, but it's not super intuitive.

The charts above come from TradingView which is pretty great for charting. Opening an acct is free for delayed quotes.
  • #88
  • Sep 30, 2017 5:43pm Sep 30, 2017 5:43pm
Quoting InfinitySL
It's actually a really good question because in TradeStation if you just use the @S, @W, or @C for Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn respectively, the charts are all messed up. There's a way in TS to adjust these for the continuous, but it's not super intuitive. The charts above come from TradingView which is pretty great for charting. Opening an acct is free for delayed quotes.
Cool, thanks for the reply. Yeah, in TradeStation I use @c=103xn, etc. (I use 103 for Ag and 107 for Energy), but it never seems quite right, you know? I'll check out TradingView.
  • #89
  • Sep 30, 2017 7:01pm Sep 30, 2017 7:01pm
So a guy at Tradestation walked me through it just this week.

When you're in a chart with a generic like @S for instance, right click on the chart, Format Symbol, the in the first tab (Settings) click on Lookup, then go to the 3rd tab "Custom Futures", then put in your symbol root, so like "ES" for E-mini S&P, or "W" for Wheat, etc. Then in the middle where it says "rollover trigger" change that setting to "2", then change the back-adjustment method to 'Unadjusted", then click the button at the bottom that says "use this symbol for trading".

That should get you a chart with actual data that corresponds to what was going on at the time. You can check the data by comparing it to this website:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/his...ontinuous.html (as an example pulled out of thin air)
  • #90
  • Sep 30, 2017 7:14pm Sep 30, 2017 7:14pm
Quoting InfinitySL
So a guy at Tradestation walked me through it just this week. When you're in a chart with a generic like @S for instance, right click on the chart, Format Symbol, the in the first tab (Settings) click on Lookup, then go to the 3rd tab "Custom Futures", then put in your symbol root, so like "ES" for E-mini S&P, or "W" for Wheat, etc. Then in the middle where it says "rollover trigger" change that setting to "2", then change the back-adjustment method to 'Unadjusted", then click the button at the bottom that says "use this symbol for trading". That...
That's great info. I've always read how difficult it is to get a reliable continuous contract, and all of the methodologies to do it, so I just figured there is no such thing as a long-term technical futures trader and you'd have to go purely on fundamentals. I'll give these a try.
  • #91
  • Sep 30, 2017 7:30pm Sep 30, 2017 7:30pm
Well to be honest, i still consider myself quite the novice when it comes to futures. Despite having traded stocks for 15ish yrs I've really only started dabbling in futures more recently with a small account on the side. SO despite posting long-term charts, I've been managing my futures trading at pretty short intervals just because my account is admittedly somewhat under capitalized.

In any case, we'll see if it works -- the interesting thing is that there are certain indicators showing a bullish trend in some of these, while other longer-term charts appear to be trending lower. I suspect that the path of the interest rates and the strength/weakness of the US Dollar will play a key role in the future path of these commodities.
  • #92
  • Sep 30, 2017 7:51pm Sep 30, 2017 7:51pm
You're aware of Contango and Backwardation? I think Energy and Ag suffer from these the most, and the non-physicals (currency and index) suffer the least.

A few of the physicals have decent ETFs which work well as proxies, such as GLD and SLV. But a lot of the other commodity-correlated ETFs are so thinly traded they can't be shorted.

A good deal of my Futures trading is with Options. 1 GC contract is around $5,000, but a 1-strike-wide vertical spread is just a few hundred and the risk is very controlled.

FYI, right now mini-gold (YG) is traded on ICE but I read a rumor that it's moving to CME - a much lower cost data feed.
  • #93
  • Oct 1, 2017 4:38am Oct 1, 2017 4:38am
Is Silver used for anything apart from jewellery and money-substitute? It has uses in electronics but like gold the requirement is not huge.

I have been buying a (UK) physical Gold ETF which seems to bear only a small correlation to the physical Gold price. I was in and out within a couple of months for a modest gain and I'm now looking at a re-entry. Interestingly there are ETF instruments which are allegedly short on some commodities.


Quoting InfinitySL
Well to be honest, i still consider myself quite the novice when it comes to futures. Despite having traded stocks for 15ish yrs I've really only started dabbling in futures more recently with a small account on the side. SO despite posting long-term charts, I've been managing my futures trading at pretty short intervals just because my account is admittedly somewhat under capitalized. ....
We are pretty similar in that respect. Not only have I been investing in stocks for 20 years I have what is for me a considerable investment and income therefrom. I therefore find that most of my mental capacity is absorbed by managing my stocks portfolio(s). So I will be interested to see how you fare in what seems to be a similar situation.

Quoting InfinitySL
So a guy at Tradestation walked me through it just this week. .... You can check the data by comparing it to this website: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/his...ontinuous.html (as an example pulled out of thin air)
I have not looked at soft commodity prices until this year. Particularly of interest is that Corn prices appear to have gradually declined over the last ~decade.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #94
  • Oct 1, 2017 7:09am Oct 1, 2017 7:09am
Quoting Rob Mondave
You're aware of Contango and Backwardation? I think Energy and Ag suffer from these the most, and the non-physicals (currency and index) suffer the least. A few of the physicals have decent ETFs which work well as proxies, such as GLD and SLV. But a lot of the other commodity-correlated ETFs are so thinly traded they can't be shorted. A good deal of my Futures trading is with Options. 1 GC contract is around $5,000, but a 1-strike-wide vertical spread is just a few hundred and the risk is very controlled. FYI, right now mini-gold (YG) is traded...
ICE market data is a joke... my jaw dropped when i saw how much they want to charge for it, which is a shame because in the past I've played around in Cotton (Ticker: BAL for the US ETF) and Coffee (Ticker: JO for the US ETF).

The Backwardation/Contago isssue is a big deal. If you look at an ETF like USO, it has done an absolutely miserable job of tracking the price of oil. Nat Gas vs. UNG is even worse... with UNG, the backwardation was so bad you pretty much got wiped out by investing in that ETF post-crisis. Pull up a chart on UNG from 2008 onward..it's had so many reverse stock splits that I think it looks like a pretty smooth ride from $300 down to about $6. YIKES!

The GLD and IAU ETFs here in the states actually do a decent job tracking physical gold as the ETFs actually do buy and hold the physical metal. They don't mess around with buying front-month Gold Futures and rolling like some of these other commodities ETFs which as we just mentioned can get killed if the market is in backwardation. I've owned GLD/IAU from time to time, but usually when I buy gold/silver I tend to just buy the metal, put it in a safe and forget about it, i don't really get in & out of it. I look at it more as a doomsday hedge.
  • #95
  • Oct 1, 2017 10:04am Oct 1, 2017 10:04am
Yeah, the commodity ETFs would be better as ETNs, where the producer could just say what it's worth. With USO and UNG I decided to just trade them for a multi-day duration - the Daily charts for these look almost identical to CL and NG.

I keep telling myself I should buy physicals as a hedge against Armageddon, but not wanting to seem paranoid always stops me... Plus, I think if our economy does melt down having a skill with which to barter (like farming, tailoring, etc.) will be more valuable.
  • #96
  • Oct 1, 2017 10:34am Oct 1, 2017 10:34am
I just tried that TradeStation continuous contract formula, it's very effective. @c=103xn (for example) is close to @cz17=11INN, but the latter just looks more right.

However, I compared USO, UGA and TLT to these formulas and the ETFs are actually the closest to the simple @CL, @RB and @US. I have no idea, no guess as to what that means for macro turning points.
  • #97
  • Oct 3, 2017 9:51pm Oct 3, 2017 9:51pm
Here's one I don't own but am considering (and I am pretty sure I posted this earlier in the thread when it first broke out above $90). Well it's $10-15pts higher depending on where i highlighted it. In any case, I like buying it (or more if you bought it the first time) above $107. Here is the weekly from yesterday and the daily from today. Sort of a giant cup & handle on the weekly... Pays a 2% dividend, trades at 20x trailing earnings. Now devil's advocate, we're probably at peak earnings for the hospitality space, but if you think this bull still has some legs left, you might be able to ride this higher still.

Weekly Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-02_22h37_24.png Size: 66 KB


Daily Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-03_WYN.png Size: 132 KB
  • #98
  • Oct 3, 2017 10:06pm Oct 3, 2017 10:06pm
Also Scott's Miracle Grow is about to hit $100 for the first time. I'm long already, but would look to add on another 25%-50% to my position size depending on how it behaves around $100.

$SMG (weekly)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-03_SMG_again.png Size: 130 KB
  • #99
  • Oct 4, 2017 9:12pm Oct 4, 2017 9:12pm
I'm re-thinking EWU (UK Stocks). From the daily chart, kinda looks like a long and yet here I am short it... What to do, what to do....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-04_EWU_Daily.png Size: 108 KB
  • #100
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:31am Oct 5, 2017 6:31am
Quoting InfinitySL
I'm re-thinking EWU (UK Stocks). From the daily chart, kinda looks like a long and yet here I am short it... What to do, what to do.... {image}
In one book that I read ......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-10-04_EWU_Daily.png Size: 121 KB
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
0 traders viewing now