Trading X Factor | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Your Trading Struggles - What is the biggest factor? 72 replies

Trading System Safety Factor (TSSF) 0 replies

Momentum Factor 7 replies

Time factor in trading 9 replies

Efficient Factor of EAs 0 replies

Attachments: Trading X Factor
Exit Attachments

Trading X Factor

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 29, 2017 4:59pm Sep 29, 2017 4:59pm
After years of trading Forex and many technical systems to take a piece of the action on a daily basis, I've learned you must have the X Factor in trading to make it. If you are truly making some profit consistently in this market, you must have a working system (technical / fundamental) that dynamically adjusts with the market, an amazing discipline in money management and be mentally strong to handle volatility especially during news.

If you are in this category of traders, what is your X Factor?

here's mine to be fair:
I have a very simple system with a couple of indicators that's based on multi chart time frames, I keep an excel worksheet that provides exactly what my risk:reward ratio is. It's structured like a sprint with daily and weekly goals and spans thru the next 3 years. I also try to not be shaken by the news but that's inevitable. I have my set max loss in mind and take profit dynamically as dictated by market volume. Mentally, I don't think I'm there yet in terms of handling volatility but it's inherently covered since I never risk more than what I can handle. So I'm never in a situation that I will regret even if a loss happens which it does.
  • #2
  • Sep 29, 2017 7:50pm Sep 29, 2017 7:50pm
Quoting xfc
If you are in this category of traders, what is your X Factor?
X-Factor is called X-Factor because the X can’t be explained. It is untouchable, indefinable and indescribable by definition.
  • #3
  • Sep 30, 2017 8:42am Sep 30, 2017 8:42am
Quoting GU-Night
{quote} X-Factor is called X-Factor because the X can’t be explained. It is untouchable, indefinable and indescribable by definition.
Thanks GU-Night for your comment! Even thought I agree with your definition of X Factor, there are better and more relative definitions that you can find on the Webster:

  1. a variable in a given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome
  2. a noteworthy special talent or quality
  3. a circumstance, quality, or person that has a strong but unpredictable influence

However, the point of this thread isn't to be literal and nit pick on definitions, it's about capturing the quality of what makes you a successful trader so others can learn from and perhaps improve their trading style.

Thank you in advance for your support.

  • #4
  • Sep 30, 2017 9:35am Sep 30, 2017 9:35am
Are you going to offer your system?
This is a trading system forum.
If you want to talk in generalities, you probably need to be in the Trading Discussion Forum.
  • #5
  • Sep 30, 2017 11:45am Sep 30, 2017 11:45am
Quoting billbss
Are you going to offer your system? This is a trading system forum. If you want to talk in generalities, you probably need to be in the Trading Discussion Forum.
That's a fair question billbss! As I mentioned on my 1st post, I've gone thru many systems. I'm currently running with a fairly simple one. It relies on the M, W, D Trend. When the trend is established, I switch to H4 and look for a good retrace. After the retrace has subsided, it usually reverses to align with the trend again, then I switch to M15 to do the same. I enter as soon as M15 aligns with H4 which should all be aligned with the M, W, D trend.

There are many systems that can produce profit, but the key that's helped me go from losing to winning has been money management.

Do you have a similar experience?
  • #6
  • Sep 30, 2017 1:19pm Sep 30, 2017 1:19pm
In a way.
I've found the Larry Williams' idea of exiting on the first profitable open beats any exiting strategy.
  • #7
  • Edited 3:59pm Sep 30, 2017 2:56pm | Edited 3:59pm
I'm intrigued, I need to read up on his exit strategy. I have a reasonable goal for each trade, when I reach it, I let the 5' chart guide me to continue or exit depending on the market volume. At times, even the 5' is not a good guide, you'd have to rely on fundamentals, years of experience and even instinct.

I will post some of my trades next week to elaborate on how the system works in the hopes that others will also share their "X Factor".
  • #8
  • Oct 1, 2017 9:30am Oct 1, 2017 9:30am
Quoting xfc
{quote} That's a fair question billbss! As I mentioned on my 1st post, I've gone thru many systems. I'm currently running with a fairly simple one. It relies on the M, W, D Trend. When the trend is established, I switch to H4 and look for a good retrace. After the retrace has subsided, it usually reverses to align with the trend again, then I switch to M15 to do the same. I enter as soon as M15 aligns with H4 which should all be aligned with the M, W, D trend. There are many systems that can produce profit, but the key that's helped me go from losing...
Hi XCF.

Not sure if this thread belongs to the "trading systems" area or more to tradijng discussion but I like your aproach.

Since a couple of months we (me and some of my buddies) do a stricktly top down analyses.
It shows us "good occassions" which of our intruments to focus for the coming week and take the entry by our traded systems(TMS in this case).

May I ask what configurations/settings do you use to figure out: Monthly, weekly and daily trend?
Do you also give some weight on momentum of last weekly/monthly candles, strong swing lows/highs and empty space to reach them?
What is your reason to exit a trade?




Stay tuned
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #9
  • Oct 1, 2017 4:02pm Oct 1, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Hi XCF. Not sure if this thread belongs to the "trading systems" area or more to tradijng discussion but I like your aproach. Since a couple of months we (me and some of my buddies) do a stricktly top down analyses. It shows us "good occassions" which of our intruments to focus for the coming week and take the entry by our traded systems(TMS in this case). May I ask what configurations/settings do you use to figure out: Monthly, weekly and daily trend? Do you also give some weight on momentum of last weekly/monthly candles, strong swing...
Hi Sesamstrasse! I don't know if FF has some sort of governance to decide if a thread belongs in a particular category. I intended for folks to share their successful systems in this thread including the ones I use. When I start trading again next week, I will share some details on the system I described earlier including how I determine trends, enter and exit trades.

I've learned simple systems are usually better. The more indicators you load into your chart, the more doubts you apply to your trade. I'm a big fan of multi chart systems with the top charts being the king of the trend and lower charts as the triggers. A simple MA and swing indicators (ichimoku / Zigzag) are sufficient to predict price action. For the M/W charts, I don't give weight to the latest candle as it's the collective of the immediate swing that's more important to me. When I enter a trade, I manage exiting it thru the 5' chart. I usually exit a trade when the price action on 5' chart creates a swing and can't beat its upper/lower pivots.
  • #10
  • Edited 8:59pm Oct 1, 2017 8:37pm | Edited 8:59pm
Here's a trade produced by the system I've been talking about:
EURUSD M/W...established the up trend-->H4 bounces off retrace-->M15 bounces off retrace-->approx. 25 pips


Screenshot3.png;2502295[/attach]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 96 KB
  • #11
  • Oct 2, 2017 7:11am Oct 2, 2017 7:11am
Waiting for EUR and GBPJPY to shoot back up in NEW YORK. What's happening is nothing but bad news retrace. Their top charts are in up trend.
  • #12
  • Oct 2, 2017 9:42pm Oct 2, 2017 9:42pm
My system predicts EUR and GBPJPY will go back to where they ended last week. I hope it's right! From what I see on the charts, it's hard to believe, but we will see.
  • #13
  • Oct 4, 2017 10:01am Oct 4, 2017 10:01am
Quoting xfc
Here's a trade produced by the system I've been talking about: EURUSD M/W...established the up trend-->H4 bounces off retrace-->M15 bounces off retrace-->approx. 25 pips Screenshot3.png;2502295[/attach] {image}

Hi xcf...
-- a confluence of different moving averages..
I can confirm, picky trading confluences of a moving averages work good..



Not sure if you read " the dance":

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=224697


or the continuation " Choros":

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10351649

There it´s excellent discribed how to trade successful with moving averages in different timeframes and how to read therm.
Confluences.. first bounces.. steep angles on a MA or even flat ... and many many more ...

I wish you good success with your aproach but I expect a bit more from a top down analyses.

Stay tuned
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #14
  • Oct 4, 2017 5:38pm Oct 4, 2017 5:38pm
Thanks Guido!
Appreciate sharing those systems. I think I'd need a day just to read "the dance" . but if we can pickup just a few of the key points, we will improve our speculation of the market. The challenge is not to make it too complicated. With complexity comes doubt and/or blind confidence!

btw, check out the trade on GBPCAD on Monday:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 99 KB
  • #15
  • Oct 5, 2017 5:38am Oct 5, 2017 5:38am
Quoting xfc
My system predicts EUR and GBPJPY will go back to where they ended last week. I hope it's right! From what I see on the charts, it's hard to believe, but we will see.
quick update, still waiting for GBPJPY to realign its up trend. However, my system has already indicated realignment for EUR... looking for 20 pips or so.
  • #16
  • Oct 6, 2017 1:40pm Oct 6, 2017 1:40pm
Quoting xfc
{quote} quick update, still waiting for GBPJPY to realign its up trend. However, my system has already indicated realignment for EUR... looking for 20 pips or so.
Recap: There were 2 trades from the system that I caught this week, one was the GBPCAD (see previous post), and the other was the EUR. GBPCAD provided about 50 pips and EUR went into a draw down and had to be scaled in to get a break even. Made some adjustments to the rules of the system to manage draw downs if H4 loses its confluence with the higher charts. It's basically scale in and exit as soon as price touches H4 MA again (see EUR example below). This way you can manage your R:R ratio. Again, it's important to have great money management skills here as it's possible to get overextended if you use too much leverage. My rule of thumb is 2% of account for 2 reasons: 1) to keep your account from blowing up 2) to have an opportunity to scale in. As aforementioned, I always have the stop loss in mind unless I'm away from my monitor which I will set it before I leave (my R:R is 1:1.5 - if my goal is 60 pips, my stop loss is 90)...there's no such thing as win it all, all the time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 57 KB
  • #17
  • Oct 8, 2017 5:09pm Oct 8, 2017 5:09pm
If you're interested, below is a great ebook to read about another system - Trading with DiNapoli Levels. It's an older approach to the market, but there are some great concepts about Fib levels, leading and lagging indicators, money management, etc:
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3&d=1463019368

It would be good to use some of its fundamentals, but in a much simplified way.
  • #18
  • Edited 8:50am Oct 9, 2017 8:25am | Edited 8:50am
Missed a nice trade on GBPNZD last night:
Alignment/confluence across multi charts...M/W--->H4-->M15, good for at least 30 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 51 KB
  • #19
  • Oct 10, 2017 6:07am Oct 10, 2017 6:07am
Alignment/confluence across multi charts...M/W--->H4-->M15, good for 20 pips+ for EURUSD and 30+ for EURJPY
note: vertical lines depict the trend alignment on H4 & M15, horizontal lines represent the trade enter and exit

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 73 KB
  • #20
  • Oct 11, 2017 8:24am Oct 11, 2017 8:24am
Another system trade that took discipline to exit using the 5' strategy as described in previous posts--->20 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADproM15.png Size: 52 KB
0 traders viewing now