There is no Magic Moving Average - You need only one

Thanks so much for this thread, and for sharing your in-depth studies with us. I've never seen MAs laid out and described as you have done here. This is a great help to my trading, for sure.

I'm glad you are willing to put up with so much, in order to share your knowledge; I for one give you a lot of thumbs-up!

';-)

CHF/JPY what it was and what is now :

Ok followers, to sustain the words I wroted here, I have atached a Trade Explorer at the top of the page.

All entries are taken based on Market Cycles. I was using high leverage because I have some confidence on my entries . It is a no-deposit bonus, you shall try it for free

There is no secret in trading, only KNOWLEDGE. What mean that? Learn how the market move (Market Cycles) and walk on Generals Path (Banks, Institutions etc).

That's my opinion, but of course, you are free to think what you want.

Up Up

The signal I was giving here, the result :

Update :

The move is already extended and more risky. Personally I will avoid that, I prefer the first entries when fresh Markup/Decline phase is confirmed but it also have good chances for a little scalp (or who know, mabe it will break harder up)

I have a strategy and I have a risk management strategy too. I am not sharing my strategy but the theory behind it. As you can see in the Trade Explorer I've opened some trades to prove my words.
Now stop the hate and start to learn.

Hi andoseg, thankyou very much for all this invaluable information you have given. I am confused as to which SMA's to focus on though, as in post #118 you dont include the sma 24 for 1h anywhere, and in some pictures you include just 1 sma and in others you have 3, sorry if the answer to this is obvious somewhere but im just scratching my head a little bit, perhaps you could give me a clearer idea of short term, long term and postion trading and when you include just 1 ma and when you include 3?

Many thanks
harry

Hi Harry,

As I said, I use a Moving Average depending on the timeframe I am looking at for the formation of consecutive bars.

When you look at consecutive bars, you don't have a clear image of where supply and demand is released. For achieving this goal, you shall switch to a lower timeframe where the swings Higher Highs & Higher Lows appear more clear .
Because you have consecutive bars as trading activity over some specific period, then you want to look at what happen inside this trading activity. For example you hav 3-5 green bars each closing one over prior. The moment the pre and last bars fail to close above prior high of bar, then the momentum weaken, is logic. This is the moment you shall to investigate
in minor timeframes if there is sellers activity (exploit the bulls fear) . So because you are looking at the timeframe 1D , and you have 5 days in the formation described early, you want too look at this pattern . Yes, this is a behavior pattern, one of many. I call this "zooming in" . So you start to "zoom in" on H4 this pattern . Because every bar is in this formation you will consider too look at the 1D Moving Average. Because it is impossible to receive informations from EMA1 or SMA1 (depending of your preference) you "zoom in" to a lower timeframe, H4 so , EMA1 on Daily will become EMA6 on H4, right?, because one day have six 4h candles inside. Thus EMA1 on Daily timeframe will become EMA24 on H1 and EMA48 (you can use EMA50 - well I am sure you know the EMA50) on 30m.
if you are a swing trader with large amount of capital then you are looking at weekly bars. Because a trading week have 5 days, you will use EMA5 on Daily or EMA30 on H4 (because 1W = 5x 1D and one day it have 6x 4H bars so 1W = 5x6 = 30 bars of H4, isn't it ? So you will use on H4 the MA30 to look at 1 week trading period, or MA120 on H1, it is the same (because one bar of H4 it have 4xH1 so 1W = 5x 1D and one day it have 24x 1h Bars so 1W = 5x24 = 120 bars of H1, isn't it ?)

3 Moving average are used to determine 3 trends : longer term, the powerfull, medium term and short term.
I have said there no need to use more than 1 moving average (the longer term, the powerfull) because all you want is a pullback at it then a breakout of the highest/lowest peak where the pullback came from (highest for bullish lowest from bearish).
When the short and medium term MA cross each other, it is a sign of indecision , there is conflict between traders among different timeframes. That's a signal you shall take a risk management decision (Reduce the risk, exit completely, take half and move the SL according etc).
The most important is the longer term MA that's why I said over and over you need only one Moving Average but that Moving Average shall be chosen correctly not random.

Trading on Market Cycles in my opinion mean something like that :

Wait for the Lion to eat and become satisfied and tired about his meat then go and grab the remains. The risk to lose your
life will be less this way Of course everybody heard about "Trend is your friend" but not everybody have a understanding of what that mean. That's why you see on ForexFactory many threads of confusing and angry traders wich sustain "there is no trend, trend is your enemy" etc.

CHF/JPY , I am using MA50 on H1 . Why ? because I am looking at 2D trading period . That mean MA48 wich is approximatively MA50. Because MA50 it have great psichologial impact , we will use that instead MA48 since there is a little to no difference between them.

thanks for that very informative response, it clears it up for me to a certain extent....but now i am slightly confused about something else, when do you use SMA and EMA? It seemed up until this post you used SMA.

I am using only Simple Moving Averages because, even if they are lagged, they are more accurate than Exponential Moving Average regarding the slope . A pullback on a SMA without a nice ascending/descending slope shall not be trusted.

WHOA WHOA WHOA - wait a minute, so you are saying all we have to do is observe the Price Action on the Weekly, drop down to the 4 Hour and trade the heck out of it?

Where have you been the last few years? This fits in very good with watching resistance & support levels - they don't give entry points, but

The way you show the 4 Hour, that is perfect! Thanks for sharing

Here is a good example I found for the EURGBP, everyone was looking to short it when it got to 0.91 and 0.92 and 0.93

But the Weekly told the story when it was ready, comments?

On the 4 Hour chart, vertical lines are the Weeks, and the horizontal lines are 100 pips, so looks like 300+ pips available there !!!

Which other pair(s) can be used with 100EMA?

Hi Erabus I saw your last comments on post 132



is it possible to have a list of your incator on your 4hrs chart and/or the Template... your chart are very clear...


Thank you

Have a nice day

Excelent view . Also take a closer look at your picture.

Emotions in Market Cycles on EUR/GBP :

En Details.

Check the examples above if you are a swing trader .

EUR/JPY . How the Candle Sticks pattern fail in some situations.

Most probable a lot of traders would been long on this pinbar. The Market Cycles can help you avoid some fake movements.

Of course, that doesn't mean there will be no bad trades using Market Cycles. but in my opinion this shine where others fail

Update EUR/JPY . Some demand found down @ 132.10 (close to $132) . My Mistake, I am referring to 25 september swing

A pullback @ $132.5 would be ideal before a long can be taken in consideration, in my opinion.