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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #30,301
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:50am Aug 18, 2017 1:50am
RiseP thank you very much, I had to close the trade as you said...you were right!! Thank you very much for the kind response and your wisdom in analysing the trade for me. I have stopped trading for this week until monday next week when i will start again afresh. Please do have a great weekend and God bless you and everyone on this thread!!
"With God all things are possible"
  • #30,302
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:55am Aug 18, 2017 1:55am
Also I would like to acknowledge Naustingfx for the accurate analysis he made on the fall of GBPJPY last week!! He analysed it correctly as the Bank of England gave a dovish stance on its interest rates policy and that gave credence to Naustingfx's tech analysis that resistance would hold on the daily chart which is what we saw and is still playing...great job there!!
"With God all things are possible"
  • #30,303
  • Aug 21, 2017 11:00am Aug 21, 2017 11:00am
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  • #30,304
  • Aug 27, 2017 4:47am Aug 27, 2017 4:47am
USD/JPY stayed above 108.59 temporary low last week.

Fundamental direction MA 365 is neutral. Mood direction MA 89 is on the downside. In case of cross MA21, close below MA21 and pull back to MA21 should targe MA89 now at 110.94. See daily USD/JPY chart. Upside recovery should be limited by this resistance and bring fall resumption.

Break of 108.59 will target a test on 108.12 low. Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, firm break of 110.94 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

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  • #30,305
  • Aug 29, 2017 4:45am Aug 29, 2017 4:45am
USD/JPY reached below 108.59 and the intraday direction is on the downside for 108.12 low.

On the 4H chart the fundamental direction MA 365 is on the downside as well as mood direction of MA 89.

Whole corrective decline from 118.65 is possibly resuming and break of 108.12 will target on the weekly chart MA365 which is at 106.

Nonetheless, considering divergence condition in DAILY MACD, break of MA21, close above MA21 and pull back to MA21 should target MA89 now at 110.94 (Daily Chart).


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  • #30,306
  • Sep 4, 2017 5:02am Sep 4, 2017 5:02am
Quoting FiberStage
Just started digging into this thread. Been looking for a mentoring post for a H4 strategy. With the thread still active and alive it seems to have remained a viable system. I'm ready and willing to do my homework from the direction outlined in the first post. That said, are there any veteran traders of this system that can point to post #'s that pertain to any critical updates, or will the first post still suffice? Many thanks!
Thanks for asking!!!
Check posts from year 2013 to 2014. Even on page 1 Phillip mentioned that market volatility is now high as compared to when the thread first began, way back in 2007. But the basics of the system is still excellently working... The major challenge is that due to high volatility, finding entries at 4hr time frame may be difficult sometimes: therefore it became very important to now take entries from lower time frames, like 1hr time frame and even smaller time frames...but you must as well know how to do that to avoid making losses.

I wish you well!

You are welcome here.
God bless
  • #30,307
  • Sep 4, 2017 1:05pm Sep 4, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Thanks for asking!!! Check posts from year 2013 to 2014. Even on page 1 Phillip mentioned that market volatility is now high as compared to when the thread first began, way back in 2007. But the basics of the system is still excellently working... The major challenge is that due to high volatility, finding entries at 4hr time frame may be difficult sometimes: therefore it becamevery
important to now take entries from lower time frames, like 1hr time frame and even smaller time frames...but you must as well know how to do that to avoid making...
This is so true. Especially recently with a lot events happening fundamentally violatility has increased evenmore, I also recommend being patient and avoid trading for the sake of trading instead wait for clean set-ups when all the MAs are apart from each other. I'm still learning for years, the dream is to trade full time, I'm hoping with this theory I will one day be able to trade successfully
  • #30,308
  • Sep 4, 2017 2:09pm Sep 4, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting RieseP
{quote} This is so true. Especially recently with a lot events happening fundamentally violatility has increased evenmore, I also recommend being patient and avoid trading for the sake of trading instead wait for clean set-ups when all the MAs are apart from each other. I'm still learning for years, the dream is to trade full time, I'm hoping with this theory I will one day be able to trade successfully
without a doubt smaller time frames are necessary in the current climate and their are more days i'm not trading as i do not have a clear idea as to what is happening remember you can still learn from the markets without losing money by entering a deal without a clear idea as to what is happening

trade safe people their is no hurry the markets will always become clear eventually and you patience will pay off in the end
  • #30,309
  • Sep 8, 2017 2:05am Sep 8, 2017 2:05am
Break of 108.12 support confirms medium term decline from 118.65 and should head to MA365 on the weekly chart, which is at 106.
On the 4H chart the fundamental direction MA 365 is on the downside as well as mood direction of MA 89.

I would look for signs of support around 106.5, which should bring rebound.
On the upside, above 108.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bearish as long as (MA21 Weekly) 110.66 resistance holds.

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  • #30,310
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:06am Sep 25, 2017 12:06am
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  • #30,311
  • Sep 25, 2017 9:14am Sep 25, 2017 9:14am
Two are closed:
1. GBPAUD: stop loss are hit -47 pips. I think I should give a room to this pair to move due to its high volatility.
2. AUDJPY: Limit are hit +82 pip.

USDCAD is still opened with nearly 30 pip floating profit.
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  • #30,312
  • Sep 25, 2017 10:33am Sep 25, 2017 10:33am
Bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor with 111.07 (Daily MA 365) support intact. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance (now at 113.03) will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 (previous top) resistance for confirmation.

Break of 111.07 (Daily MA 365) minor support will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance (now at 113.03) and turn bias back to the downside for H4 MA 365 (now at 110.64) and below.

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  • #30,313
  • Sep 25, 2017 1:37pm Sep 25, 2017 1:37pm
Quoting francois443
Bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor with 111.07 (Daily MA 365) support intact. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance (now at 113.03) will argue that whole correction from 118.65 has completed. In that case, further rise should be seen to 114.49 (previous top) resistance for confirmation. Break of 111.07 (Daily MA 365) minor support will raise the risk of rejection from channel resistance (now at 113.03) and turn bias back to the downside for H4 MA 365 (now at 110.64)...
Thanks for your analysis. If you don't mind, can you explain how you found 113.03 to be a line of resistance? I would not have found that number on my chart. I'm wondering what I'm missing. Thank you!
Money won't solve all your problems, but it will solve your money problems.
  • #30,314
  • Sep 26, 2017 7:36am Sep 26, 2017 7:36am
Quoting FiberStage
{quote} Thanks for your analysis. If you don't mind, can you explain how you found 113.03 to be a line of resistance? I would not have found that number on my chart. I'm wondering what I'm missing. Thank you!
Hi, FiberStage, the resistance is actually the border line of the pink channel. Try to draw a line from the top value 118.654 to 114.484 and you will end up with the mentioned resistance at 113.03.

Hope it is clearer now, tell me if not.
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  • #30,315
  • Sep 26, 2017 9:48am Sep 26, 2017 9:48am
Closed USDCAD trade for +75.6, 30.4 and 33.4 pips (139 pips in 3 trades)
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  • #30,316
  • Sep 27, 2017 5:12am Sep 27, 2017 5:12am
Quoting francois443
{quote} Hi, FiberStage, the resistance is actually the border line of the pink channel. Try to draw a line from the top value 118.654 to 114.484 and you will end up with the mentioned resistance at 113.03. Hope it is clearer now, tell me if not. {image}
That makes perfect sense. It was the horizontal line that threw me off. I haven't thought about marking charts like that. It makes sense and I'll start trying it. Very grateful for the reply!
Money won't solve all your problems, but it will solve your money problems.
  • #30,317
  • Sep 28, 2017 1:50am Sep 28, 2017 1:50am
Quoting naustingfx
{quote} Thanks for asking!!! Check posts from year 2013 to 2014. Even on page 1 Phillip mentioned that market volatility is now high as compared to when the thread first began, way back in 2007. But the basics of the system is still excellently working... The major challenge is that due to high volatility, finding entries at 4hr time frame may be difficult sometimes: therefore it became very important to now take entries from lower time frames, like 1hr time frame and even smaller time frames...but you must as well know how to do that to avoid making...
Somehow I totally missed this post. Thank you for the welcome and for the advice about lower time frames. Work is about to get very busy for me but I hope to stay active in the thread. I hope everyone keeps the analysis coming. Out of all of the education I've gone over, I've found that nothing beats learning from another traders current thoughts about the market.

God bless you as well!
Money won't solve all your problems, but it will solve your money problems.
  • #30,318
  • Oct 2, 2017 2:19am Oct 2, 2017 2:19am
Short CADJPY, Target 200 SMA on 4hr
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  • #30,319
  • Oct 9, 2017 5:12pm Oct 9, 2017 5:12pm
Buy AUD/NZD (price broke 21/89 and retraced to 21 ema and pulled back)
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  • #30,320
  • Oct 10, 2017 10:52pm Oct 10, 2017 10:52pm
Quick question for the vets: When concentrating on H1, H4, and D1 charts how long are you holding a position before you start to feel it is too long and not likely to hit your target and you need to close? I get the sense now that if 8 - 12 H4 candles pass and I'm ranging between my SL and target and I'm in some profit I should just close. I certainly understand this is all subjective for individual trades, but it seems like there must be some general pattern that has come up. Any thoughts?
Money won't solve all your problems, but it will solve your money problems.
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