I've been wondering.

Lets assume we have done sufficient statistical back testing (a decade of data) and discovered a mechanical system with a 60% win rate.

Monday we have a loss which was a 40% probability.

Tuesday we had another loss.. Is this still a 40% probability?

What is the probability of having 5 losses in a row (Monday to Friday)

-surely the probability of a loss gets smaller every consecutive loss day..?

Lets assume we have done sufficient statistical back testing (a decade of data) and discovered a mechanical system with a 60% win rate.

Monday we have a loss which was a 40% probability.

Tuesday we had another loss.. Is this still a 40% probability?

What is the probability of having 5 losses in a row (Monday to Friday)

-surely the probability of a loss gets smaller every consecutive loss day..?

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