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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #561
  • Sep 24, 2017 5:35pm Sep 24, 2017 5:35pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You cannot win on roulette. It's mathematically impossible regardless of the betting strategy and money management. The best you can do is to delay the total loss by "smart" and conservative betting. But if you play long enough eventually you will lose the whole capital. The only real way to win is by cheating in one way or another. a) Find some way to manipulate the roulette by physical or electronic means. b) Use highly sophisticated electronic devices and special software which can predict the next number based on the trajectory and the...
all know it, simple basic math rule. crucial point has big math problem often in his posting , so many mistakes often to correct with him so he is not misleading people with his wrong bullshit. looks he is extrem beginner and is posing more then know about trading, dont wonder when many bullshit is coming from him sometimes with crazy theories and math problems, he is known for this, but some folowers with math problems sometimes believe in him and cant see it, so you will see funny postings sometimes. simple correct his mastiakes and wait till he will say funny things about you, because he has always no arguments to fight for his wrong theories and calculations. most of the time he disapperas after many see him as faker and spam troll, and tries later back when people forget about his big stupid bullshit he wrote and his mistakes.
  • #562
  • Sep 24, 2017 9:43pm Sep 24, 2017 9:43pm
Quoting dukas_trader
simple correct his mastiakes and wait till he will say funny things about you
I only say funny things to highly retarded people when I have free time.
I usually don't waste time on retarded people like you.

Quoting dukas_trader
most of the time he disapperas after many see him as faker and spam troll, and tries later back when people forget about his big stupid bullshit he wrote and his mistakes.
I don't hang around forums because I have better things to do.
Nobody will forget what I post because I don't delete them. All my post are available.

Quoting dukas_trader
i dont know if you are dumb
I'm 100% sure that Dukas Trader is retarded.
I'm not name calling. I'm being highly objective in that observation.
  • #563
  • Sep 25, 2017 12:49am Sep 25, 2017 12:49am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} all know it, simple basic math rule. crucial point has big math problem often in his posting , so many mistakes often to correct with him so he is not misleading people with his wrong bullshit. looks he is extrem beginner and is posing more then know about trading, dont wonder when many bullshit is coming from him sometimes with crazy theories and math problems, he is known for this, but some folowers with math problems sometimes believe in him and cant see it, so you will see funny postings sometimes. simple correct his mastiakes and wait...
Yes we get your point. Now stop crying and piss off please.
  • #564
  • Sep 25, 2017 1:49am Sep 25, 2017 1:49am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Yes we get your point. Now stop crying and piss off please.
sorry baby, i only get correct the critical crucialpoint mistakes, the low level mistakes i even dont correct, so stop crying and get your anusragger back in trading and start helping people and not misleading like crucialpoint.
  • #565
  • Sep 25, 2017 1:51am Sep 25, 2017 1:51am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} I only say funny things to highly retarded people when I have free time. I usually don't waste time on retarded people like you. {quote} I don't hang around forums because I have better things to do. Nobody will forget what I post because I don't delete them. All my post are available. {quote} I'm 100% sure that Dukas Trader is retarded. I'm not name calling. I'm being highly objective in that observation.
ofcourse you are not often in forums. after time all see how stupid you are, many mistakes, extrem mistakes that need corrected and you run away and hide until you think many forget how stupid you wrote last time and try restarting to fake again. if oyu would learn some basics and would habe some experience it would be so much easier to duscuss with you, but any extrem mistake someone correct in your textes, you simple ignore it because you dont know it better or simple like to misleading people with complete bullshit textes.

ofcourse your trading is same level like your low knowledge, but not important (thats your problem to live with), you like to be a poser with nothing behind.

and you like to write many things, often without knowing about your own topic. i have met some people of your kind, dangerous for misleading other people who can not judge you so simple.
  • #566
  • Sep 25, 2017 2:45am Sep 25, 2017 2:45am
Quoting dukas_trader
{quote} ofcourse you are not often in forums. after time all see how stupid you are, many mistakes, extrem mistakes that need corrected and you run away and hide until you think many forget how stupid you wrote last time and try restarting to fake again. if oyu would learn some basics and would habe some experience it would be so much easier to duscuss with you, but any extrem mistake someone correct in your textes, you simple ignore it because you dont know it better or simple like to misleading people with complete bullshit textes. ofcourse your...
Please stop whining. Nobody cares about your opinion. You're polluting the thread.
  • #567
  • Sep 25, 2017 3:09am Sep 25, 2017 3:09am
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Please stop whining. Nobody cares about your opinion. You're polluting the thread.
opinion?ok ,you dont look very smart, but you have to live with your problem.

but thats no opinion baby, thats pure simple math, work on it and you will get it some day. man, you are same low level like crucialpoint, why are so many people in trading without simple lowest math basic knowledge and think math is an opinion ;-)? and now many wonder why 95% people lose in trading, ok some look like they fake at least they are good.
  • #568
  • Sep 25, 2017 5:44am Sep 25, 2017 5:44am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} I've basically handed over 80% of the system. I didn't disclosed the Exit and Money management. If you're still unable to crack it.... I can assure you that Forex trading is 50x harder than what you are trying to solve here.
Hmm exit is an interesting topic. Ive always found paradoxical 2 well known clichés:
- " cut losses short let profits run"
- "never let a winner turn into a loser"

As for money management thats simple, ask the broker for some more funds (just kidding, actually wonder if anyones done that )

But on a serious note, if you dont mind CP, what are your thoughts on "working" around price (scale in/out) in relation to risk?
  • #569
  • Sep 25, 2017 6:21am Sep 25, 2017 6:21am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} red +1, red +1 (2), red +1 (3), black -1 (2), red +1 (3), 0 -1 (2), red +1 (3), red +1 (4), red +1 (5) If you draw this on a graph you are 5 points up. As long as red remains above 0 line there will be more red, below 0 more blacks Above 0 bet red. Below 0 bet black.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20170915-202329.png Size: 235 KB
  • #570
  • Sep 25, 2017 7:27am Sep 25, 2017 7:27am
Quoting Pipalicious
But on a serious note, if you dont mind CP, what are your thoughts on "working" around price (scale in/out) in relation to risk?
Whenever I hear an Idea, I dissect that idea like no tomorrow.
I will continue to dissect that idea for years, gathering both sides of the arguments without bias.
Just like Lawyers or Crime Investigators. You want to get right down to the truth

One important aspect of ideas is it's Origins.
Where did the idea come from?
Who said it or who was the first to say it?
What is the environment it originated from?
How did they came up or formulated the idea?

In saying so... the idea of scaling in and out...
Where did it come from? Who said it? What environment? Why scaling in/out
You need to know the idea as intimate as you can so you can determine whether it is still applicable in what you are doing.
Scaling in and out are from the big boys because the large orders can't simply get filled at the cheapest price.

Does scaling in/out give a higher statistical edge... Nope. That's why I don't scale in/out.
It's redundant and just adds more load on the working brain. People can scale in/out if they want to.
Scaling in/out as the Game Theory unfolds... It works well when it goes your way and vice versa.
The crucial point question here is "Does it mitigate your risk or loss when implemented?" and the answers is NO.

A lot of the trading ideas and trading Axioms came from a time where the trading environment was calm.
Trends, Seasonal patterns, TA and FA patterns were consistent as the text books example.
Today's trading environment is not the same as the good old days.
Today's Trading environment is highly volatile and requires a current approach and not Jurrasic technique/approach.

Seriously, even going back as short as 15 years ago compared to today's trading has massive difference.
1990's..... 1980's.... big differences in the trading environment.

Whether it is also scaling in/out in relationship to risk... in relations to other Technicals... its still redundant.
Its like doing 500 pushup daily (its redundant). Where the most efficient ideal push up for health is 20-50.

Scenario1 scaling in:
Enter @ price 1.00
Price move to 1.10
Scaled in @ price 1.10
Price move down 1.05
Balance is Zero.

Scenario2 (no scaling)
Enter @ price 1.00
Price move to 1.10
price move 1.05
Balance is .05 You are still profitable than Scenario 1.
Long story short (vice versa scaling in and out) for every % moving against you, you've exponentially increased your losses.
Vice versa Scaling out in profit, you've exponentially decreased your profit.

Very tiny details that makes a very big difference in your account balances at the end of the financial year.
  • #571
  • Sep 25, 2017 7:27am Sep 25, 2017 7:27am
Quote
So... 95% price will close above or below the open (price will move away from any reference point). 95% are candlestick 5% are dojis. 50% body 25% wick. 80% are breakouts 20% are inside bar 80% are breakouts 20% are outside bars (outside bars are breaks of S/R) GBP/USD - 90% are more than 40points in a London-New York Session All these are higher statistical occurrence. It's not voodoo. It's scientific higher statistical edge.

Some very good statistical analysis...

I was wondering % of price returning to its opening??? Do anyone have any that statistic??
  • #572
  • Edited 3:33pm Sep 25, 2017 3:19pm | Edited 3:33pm
Hello Crucialpoint,

I have one simple question. Maybe it is stupid but i am interesting, with your trading experience, money managament, risk.... how much profit would you make from 10.000 eur in a year time?
  • #573
  • Edited 6:25pm Sep 25, 2017 6:13pm | Edited 6:25pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Whenever I hear an Idea, I dissect that idea like no tomorrow. I will continue to dissect that idea for years, gathering both sides of the arguments without bias. Just like Lawyers or Crime Investigators. You want to get right down to the truth One important aspect of ideas is it's Origins. Where did the idea come from? Who said it or who was the first to say it? What is the environment it originated from? How did they came up or formulated the idea? In saying so... the idea of scaling in and out... Where did it come from? Who said it? What...
You are quite right regarding "the good old days" !

I've made tests with simple automated strategies on GBPUSD and USDJPY between 1971 and 1990 and the results are amazing.

For example buy at 20 day high, close at 10 day low. And the opposite for short.
Or using simple MA crossovers.

With 5:1 leverage, most systems made over 15 000% profit between 1971 and 1990.
The best system made over 200 000% profit with max drawdown 58%. (In terms of risk this is comparable to buy and hold on the stock market)

All these simple trend following systems suddenly started to fail around the year 1991. I think this is not a random coincidence because it correlates with the mass introduction of the internet and the personal computer.

After the information and the access to the markets became widely available, trading became much harder. More and more competition adds additional volatility and randomness. The market goes form smooth and trending to volatile and choppy.
Day trading was on the rise in the 90's and this was the end for the simple trend following systems.
  • #574
  • Sep 25, 2017 6:34pm Sep 25, 2017 6:34pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} How are the reds different and blacks different? Remove all the numbers. All you get are red and black. Red +1 Black -1 0 subtract the opposite (Red and Black are equally distributed throughout the wheel)
Hi CP, sorry if this is a silly question but may i know why we subtract the opposite for 0 please? what is the real reason behind it?
  • #575
  • Sep 26, 2017 5:53am Sep 26, 2017 5:53am
About the roulette-maybe we need to create boundaries as CP said we are in a finite movement (up or down). Let's say, once we reach number +3/-3, we re-calibrate and start from 0 and so on.
Just guessing, probably I am just talking nonsense.
  • #576
  • Sep 26, 2017 11:31am Sep 26, 2017 11:31am
Quoting ataata
Hello Crucialpoint, I have one simple question. Maybe it is stupid but i am interesting, with your trading experience, money managament, risk.... how much profit would you make from 10.000 eur in a year time?
10k USD (NOT Compounded)
Minimum Profit of 50k a year.
That's 6pips per day.
30pips per week.

10k USD (Compounded)
Minimum Profit of 120k a year.
That's still at 6pips per day.
30pips per week.

I've mentioned this before along the same lines:
The average daily range of any MAJORs is around 120pips.
If any trader can't (or don't believe) consistently take 6pips out of 120pip range...
That trader needs to be brutally honest with himself.
Something is seriously wrong if you can't grab 6pips out of a 120pip range.
An NO, I don't put a 1pip TP with a 50pip SL.

At 8M... 50% is margin (4M). 25% is sitting there for buffer (2M)
The remaining 2M is what I trade. I limit my profit per year at around 100%.
I could go higher in profit, but it is unnecessary psychological stress I don't need to take on.
I don't compound it, again I feel it's redundant unnecessary stress I am not willing to take on.
I haven't ran into any problems of not getting filled. 100% is a walk in the park for me.
I can sleep well at night with no stress lingering in my mind.
  • #577
  • Edited 1:48pm Sep 26, 2017 12:15pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} 10k USD (NOT Compounded) Minimum Profit of 50k a year. That's 6pips per day. 30pips per week. 10k USD (Compounded) Minimum Profit of 120k a year. That's still at 6pips per day. 30pips...
I wanted to ask you, if you can share some thoughts on compounding approach that you prefer or use. Most of us understand how compounding works and the growth potential it represents....for example when you were building your account, were you increasing lots every n % of your account balance, like increasing lots every 30% of total balance growth....decreasing them after loss...fixed or not fixed?...would love to hear some of your ideas regarding this topic...

Basically my question is; is there a right and wrong approach in your mind?
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
  • #578
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:20pm Sep 26, 2017 12:20pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} 10k USD (NOT Compounded) Minimum Profit of 50k a year. That's 6pips per day. 30pips per week. 10k USD (Compounded) Minimum Profit of 120k a year. That's still at 6pips per day. 30pips per week. I've mentioned this before along the same lines: The average daily range of any MAJORs is around 120pips. If any trader can't (or don't believe) consistently take 6pips out of 120pip range... That trader needs to be brutally honest with himself. Something is seriously wrong if you can't grab 6pips out of a 120pip range. An NO, I don't put a 1pip TP...
wow the little boy with bigggest problems in math (dont know any math basics) like to pose around. funny to see you are fun boy again :-).

if you would know math and not write so often 100% bullshit, some could even believe you ;-). but showing you are unable to think logic shows your text is more fake and posing then any honest or truth. misleading people is your first goal here in forexfactory!
  • #579
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:56pm Sep 26, 2017 12:56pm
Quoting leppozdrav
{quote} I wanted to ask you, if you can share some thoughts on compounding approach that you prefer or use. Most of us understand how compounding works and the growth potential it represents....for example when you were building your account, where you increasing lots every n % of your account balance, like increasing lots every 30% of total balance growth....decreasing them after loss...fixed or not fixed?...would love to hear some of your ideas regarding this topic... Basicly my question is; is there a right and wrong apprroach in your mind?
The biggest Crucial Point is not knowing your trading system intimately.
Not having the proper breathing room for your account.
Basically being over-leveraged in relation to your TRADING SKILL
and secondary is being over-leverage in relation to your Account size.

Example:
Some people may find that you are over-leveraged if you compound every 400pips.
But your trading system and your trading skill you are capable of compounding every 150pips.
Compounding at every 150pips versus 400pips is numerically higher leverage.
But the difference in numbers is irrelevant to the PRO trader because he can handle both scenarios.
It is risky and highly leveraged for a learner driver to drive 100km/h.
A normal driver with experience driving at 100km/h is not as risky due to skill, but riskier at 250km/h
Now a Formula 1 driver at 250km/h is an everyday walk in the park.

Your account will let you know the level of your skill. At what is the efficient compounding number for you.
There is no right an wrong at what % you want to compound.
The crucial point is, are you equipped with experience
and skill to implement your compounding goals.

Yes, there is a point of efficiency and redundancy... and its on an individual basis.
  • #580
  • Sep 26, 2017 1:01pm Sep 26, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} 10k USD (NOT Compounded) Minimum Profit of 50k a year. That's 6pips per day. 30pips per week. 10k USD (Compounded) Minimum Profit of 120k a year. That's still at 6pips per day. 30pips per week. I've mentioned this before along the same lines: The average daily range of any MAJORs is around 120pips. If any trader can't (or don't believe) consistently take 6pips out of 120pip range... That trader needs to be brutally honest with himself. Something is seriously wrong if you can't grab 6pips out of a 120pip range. An NO, I don't put a 1pip TP...
So, it means you make 500% per year without compounding and with 6 pips per day on average: how is your risk% on each trade?
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