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(binned per thread starter's request) Sign of a profitable tradin

  • #61
  • Sep 13, 2017 2:18am Sep 13, 2017 2:18am
You are only as good as your last trade. There is no better way to say it.
  • #62
  • Sep 13, 2017 2:23am Sep 13, 2017 2:23am
Quoting feline207
You are only as good as your last trade. There is no better way to say it.

I frankly could not agree less. It's about winning more than you lose over a reasonable timescale.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #63
  • Sep 23, 2017 6:24am Sep 23, 2017 6:24am
RR is a made up number from your imagination. How does that prove you can trade? You are predicting a market move, not trading it. Basically it means you have no exit strategy. You are just hoping the market will move according to your guess. Are you telling me that someone who guesses on exits is a trader? LOL.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #64
  • Sep 23, 2017 6:46am Sep 23, 2017 6:46am
Quoting dkrock
RR is a made up number from your imagination. How does that prove you can trade? You are predicting a market move, not trading it. Basically it means you have no exit strategy. You are just hoping the market will move according to your guess. Are you telling me that someone who guesses on exits is a trader? LOL.
Yeah I agree - I always wondered how ppl calculate their risk and reward
In detegere possumus omnes mortui sunt
  • #65
  • Edited Sep 24, 2017 4:11am Sep 23, 2017 2:28pm | Edited Sep 24, 2017 4:11am
Quoting Gamod
{quote} Yeah I agree - I always wondered how ppl calculate their risk and reward
RoMaD people RoMaD... http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/return-over-maximum-drawdown-romad.asp
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #66
  • Sep 23, 2017 3:39pm Sep 23, 2017 3:39pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Alright I understand exactly where you are coming from and I believe the difference lies in the definition of how you and I define success. I need to be fully convinced by my standard if that somebody is really successful just as he/she claimed to be. Moving the SL before achieving the desired RRR somehow blurred the need of which I need to be fully convinced. Hope you can see my view from this perspective. Tks for your view and I appreciate your interest. GS
There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs.
To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy if I make 5-10% annual return with max drawdown of 15% especially when 6 figure capital is involved. Would you agree? Its not just risk but exposure that matters tremendously "to me". Fools don't understand how tremendously hard you have to work to recover from drawdown. It took me over 5 years to recover over $50K of losses from my first 2 years of reckless, careless and noobish trading style!!!!!
I have not made a single new deposit since 2013/2014 and i have tried a 1000 strategies from my profits just to rule out what did not work for me. It takes fucking hard work and sweat and utter frustration to become a successful and consistently profitable trader !
Staying in my lane...
  • #67
  • Sep 23, 2017 10:06pm Sep 23, 2017 10:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs. To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy if I make 5-10%...
Hi V.

I think before we go into those details I would first like to tell you that I am a pure PA intraday E/U trader meaning that I trade solely based on price levels. Basically it means that when price reached a certain level and if either support/resistant levels is not breach and remain intact I will continue to hold the trade in that direction until otherwise and vice versa. My SL is between 10-30 pips and my minimum TP is 60 pips up to 150 pips in any one trade.
So I would like to know what type of trader you are in order we can discuss more within the same context so to be on the same page. I am also willing and able to discuss on other major pairs but my primary focus is on E/U.
Cheers,

GS
  • #68
  • Sep 24, 2017 12:26am Sep 24, 2017 12:26am
Quoting genghistar
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless...
May I ask why the ratio highlighted? I think 1:1 is fair enough as you would be risking the same amount you are expected to earn.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs. To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy if I make 5-10%...
I'd love to see your trade explorer. It feels good to know that someone is earning money in forex, but seeing it is another monster. My account is rather large, but that is all subjective. I think once you can do what they recommend you do in "rich dad, poor dad" and gain constant cash flow from forex, then you are successful. I think if one can earn in forex, withdraw, and allow that money to work for him or her, that would be considered a good trader.
  • #69
  • Sep 24, 2017 1:09am Sep 24, 2017 1:09am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} If you are trading this style for more than 3 yrs, hats off to you bro. I tend to believe very few humans can trade discretionary on the single chart/timeframe beyond 3 yrs with consistency. Its mind numbing work (for me) to trade manually a single setup day in and day out. Not many can understand my manual trading style after spending hours on skype as i trade events and only arrive on the scene when there is chaos. I am wired to conduct spatial analysis (0 to 60 in 2 seconds type of thought process resulting in intense focus driven aggressive...
No, I have not trade my method more than 3 yrs. In fact I was a struggling forex trader for about 9 yrs prior to my this latest methodology.
I am totally alien to your style of trading both in my physical and mental capacity. I honestly hope it works for you as I can also see that you have put in a lot of efforts into your works and also in trading so many pairs. I can only handle one pairs at each time.

Once again I wish you all the success and good health too.

GS
  • #70
  • Sep 24, 2017 2:04am Sep 24, 2017 2:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10296563#post10296563
I see your post is all "hypothetical" and doesn't even factor in how much you are risking. You are also compounding in one direction and that is up. Have you ever considered how a loss would affect your account? Perhaps you have but hypothetical spreadsheets don't translate into forex.
  • #71
  • Sep 24, 2017 3:15am Sep 24, 2017 3:15am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs. To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy if I make 5-10%...

So true, it took me over 10 years to stop loosing and have one first year on BE (capital protection), and now I´m profitable...it takes hard work, almost full time dedication, extreme care for detail...just to mention a few.( isn´t this what it takes to run a successfull business?).

A huge issue is position size and leverage, am I ready to absorb a 1500 pip ("slippage") from my broker, running through my stop loss, cause "there was no buyer on the other side" on a black swan event...??????
I don´t know of any broker, that really guarantees stops.
If you look at the geopoliticals today, black swan is right around the corner.Remember the swissy a couple of years back, and cable 2 times, and those "events" where not even too ugly like the ones looming.
Beware!
Just my 2 cents worth.
  • #72
  • Sep 24, 2017 3:22am Sep 24, 2017 3:22am
You have profit factor and sharpe ratio...both together give you a good idea about how good your trading really is and what needs improvement.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #73
  • Sep 24, 2017 3:39am Sep 24, 2017 3:39am
Profit factor & draw back is the main Issue .
Regard NOOR16
  • #74
  • Sep 24, 2017 6:23am Sep 24, 2017 6:23am
Quoting Darastonius
I wonder how many successful traders woke up today, turned on the computer, opened Forexfactory, saw this question and thought: "What can I do to earn the trust and confidence of genghistar? How could I prove myself to him and to others, that I'm successful?" You are not the first to ask this question, but this never ever ever will entice any successful traders to share their strategy. It will only attract more bullshitters, they attach their fake TE and statement, and then mention that by the way they have a course, or an indi, or live trading...
Agree,

Quoting genghistar
Further to my previous post, my method of knowing is to simply ask those who claimed that he or she who is successful to make 5 live trade calls complete with SL and TP and RR of 1:2 minimum. SL cannot be moved unless min RR is reached or achieved. If the success rate is less than 60% or less than 3/5 correct calls, then the answer is obvious for anyone to know. There is no need for any TEs and whatnots. Simple as that! So for anyone who wish to claim that they are successful this simple test will either prove or disprove their claim regardless...
This isn't to call me successful,
if few trades are criteria, and you want a static trader to be successful in a dynamic business that's pretty difficult, one might be successful with it. but not highly profitable.
Here are two weeks in image
First week -7.24%
Second week 163.13%


Then there is no absolute definition of success. Is it 10% / month ? 20, 30, 40 ? its all relative, what one is looking for.
so whatever is good percentage according to you, take 1 year average and calibrate.
RR, win/loss no of trades, day trading or trend trading whatever strategy is used, nothing matters at all.
What one has @ end of the year on average "net gain"
according to my criteria earning 10 - 30% average monthly profit is a sign successful trading.
And one who is breaking even is a good trader too
Attached Image
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #75
  • Sep 24, 2017 11:04am Sep 24, 2017 11:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs. To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy if I make 5-10%...
Hi V
Not here to bash or anything but find your target 5-10% annual target very low and posses another question.If you have 10-20k account and you spend even 10hrs a week trading and end of the year you made 10% then you could of gotten a part time job investing same hours and earning far more.To me time invested should be evaluated seriously if this is something you want to do long term.
regards

As for OP
Successful traders are more concern about other things then responding to threads like this.If you look carefully you can spot them like CNTrader,Scott,Likica just to name few that I know are successful and doing it professionally
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #76
  • Sep 24, 2017 12:46pm Sep 24, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
You have profit factor and sharpe ratio...both together give you a good idea about how good your trading really is and what needs improvement.
Profit factor is only calculated on orders which are closed. Many traders move the SL and as long as it is small enough, they won't close it. I would also look at how much of the open trading session one is in orders. The less time the better because the manipulation candle, can come at any time.
  • #77
  • Sep 24, 2017 1:25pm Sep 24, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks Dave. You understand the big picture. I really mentioned elsewhere recently that trading income has to be measured on a per hour of effort put in when trying to replace it with full time paycheck. I am currently saving more than 20% of my paycheck every week for past 2 yrs towards trading and invvestments capital. If everything goes according to plan, in five years, i will be spending less than few hours per week of screen time if i am successful with my automation of limiting max DD to under 15%. . 10-15% annual yield will be enough...
Hi Veefx
Thanks for your feedback.I still think your goal of annual return is low 10-15% That's my monthly goal...which I have successfully hit except July August which were red but not significant red.I anticipate over 100% return by the end of the year.
My take is that your previous experience has perhaps misshaped your appetite for risk.Anyway each his own but I do encourage you to start thinking bigger return and using methodology to get you there.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #78
  • Sep 24, 2017 2:33pm Sep 24, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yep. I understand. My capital will be upward of $500K that is why it is CRUCIAL to max max DD of 15%. Profits become insignificant at that level (to me). My manual trading of ultra-high risk during events typically has averaged +3x every year for past 6 yrs but only on a small account (under $10K) and lacks consistency. I am sick of trading small accounts... just not worth my time and stress as there are better places to park capital with relative ease and safety.
Hi VEEFX,

I agree with you on the DD max of 15% based on the capital. I would not let my DD exceed 20%. I once had a DD of 27% trading the stock markets. It was a great pain and that took very hard work to recover from.
Rookie trader mix up trading capital and the account size deposit they have in their broker. Rookie trader dream of making big money with $5k account and turning that into one million dollars in say 4 years. Many have such dream when the trade retail forex.

Dr Van Tharp has this Money Manager report in which he talk about Drawdown and recovery.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Money Management Report (Van Tharp).pdf   1.1 MB | 1,554 downloads
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #79
  • Sep 24, 2017 4:44pm Sep 24, 2017 4:44pm
Quoting genghistar
Have you ever wish for a veritable method to gauge or ascertain if somebody is indeed a successful trader as they claimed to be. We have many traders here who attached their TE as a proof of their trades BUT how do we know if he is successful or not. I have a fairly good idea to enable myself to know if someone is successful or not without looking at his TE or a duly certified P n L statement. I have often wondered if there is anybody who can also do the same and I will be extremely excited and grateful if I can find someone who can also do the...
Do you need stories of successful traders before you become successful, or you need strategy??????
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #80
  • Sep 24, 2017 8:22pm Sep 24, 2017 8:22pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is no mention of drawdown in your measurement? Why and what's your max drawdown in last 12 months ( from peak equity to trough equity). Notice that i mentioned equity curve and not account balance curve in mt4 used by scammers to lure noobs. To me success is primarily protecting trading capital first and foremost. If you shift your gears towards capital protection, i can guarantee you, profits will organically follow. My target maximum drawdown is 15%. Do you consider this a decent number? I would be exstatically happy...
while i completely subscribe to the no more than 15% max DD...

i cant believe you would be seriously happy with as low as 5-10% return over a year, even semi-actively trading.
0.4-0.8% a month average return vs up -15% going into red...
as far as i am concerned real estate investment can make that much for you, with perhaps lot less time involved.
more, average property funds and REITs can make that...
and due the rent or dividend the equity curve will probably be smoother, the cashflow more regularly distributed during the year, and the max drawdown generally in range. all with less or even minimal personal time spent.

dont have to be greedy, but have to be realistic, both in the loss, and the return expectation side.
ROMAD is a good measure in my opinion.
i dont see why some would like to risk 15% to gain 5%....it is like you say risk 100% to gain 33%...even the worst casino games seem to have better payout!

for one, i am a firm believer that average monthly return should be already some reflection on the max drawdown, and that yearly return should at least be 1-2x the max drawdown, else something is wrong...meaning if you allow -15% max DD, the returns of 15-30% a year should be a realistic target.

also, there is a recovery factor, allow a -15% DD on 5% a year return, and you might see yourself that it will take 3.5 yrs to climb out from that hole. is that really thought over?
there is always, always another trade!!
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