Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Quoting MetBo

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Basically I think the edge within a single candlestick is to understand that it is working like math, but you can't apply math on it. {image}

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Quoting raklian

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Like there is no past and future, there is no edge when it comes to predicting what the market will do next. We simply put in a trade and the market, like some supernatural force, decides whether to taketh or giventh at a whim. That's about it. There's nothing statistical about it. People who use statistics are at the mercy of the past (which doesn't exist anymore) which has absolutely no connection to the moment you make that trade. It's the same with indicators which are in fact a tool of statistics. There are traders who win and lose. That's...

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Quoting MaxenshteinD

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{quote} Kind off... but the best thing I ever found Is P&F, as a matter of fact I believe nearly all of the most popular technical analysis techniques were ripped of from it back in the middle of the 20th century.

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Quoting dagoods

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{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10031481 should be easy enough to map the market to the pip with circular logic LOL

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Quoting MetBo

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{quote} Well you just need the crosshair to see what I am talking about. {image} sorry 4 my bad paint skills. Use the left side of an unit cycle to predict the current Candle.

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Quoting abokwaik

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Assuming "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." is statistically correct. We can conclude that : 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price. 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price. 5% of the time price will close at the open price. We know that 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where, and We know that 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where. The statistical edge is actually that "5% of the...

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Quoting abokwaik

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Assuming "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." is statistically correct. We can conclude that : 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price. 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price. 5% of the time price will close at the open price. We know that 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where, and We know that 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where. The statistical edge is actually that "5% of the time price...

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Quoting onojiwizard

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{quote} Trying to predict is not going to work. Just follow price (order flow), this can be done by follow price momentum in the now. One does not need to know what price did in the past or what it is going to do in the future, one need only to know what price is doing in the now. You need a way to measure momentum in the now, that a trader need to figure out for himself.

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Quoting abokwaik

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Assuming "95% of the time price will close above or below the open." is statistically correct. We can conclude that : 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price. 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price. 5% of the time price will close at the open price. We know that 47.5% of the time price will close above the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where, and We know that 47.5% of the time price will close below the open price, BUT we do not know EXACTLY where. The statistical edge is actually that "5% of the time price...

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Quoting CrucialPoint

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50% body 25% wick.

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$ ./barstats.pl GBPUSD1440.csv
Count: 1100
Avg:
uoh: 0.00963
uol: 0.00314
doh: 0.00327
dol: 0.00994
Median:
uoh: 0.00803
uol: 0.00221
doh: 0.00234
dol: 0.00803
$ ./barstats.pl rnd-73.csv
Count: 981
Avg:
uoh: 25.324
uol: 8.2201
doh: 7.6366
dol: 24.346
Median:
uoh: 23
uol: 6
doh: 6
dol: 22

Quoting LITEchild

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{quote} Hello Khalil. Does any indicator exists that marks a candle that closes at the open price? Would be interesting to use it in running some visual tests.

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Quoting onojiwizard

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{quote} It means rather that 95% of all candles (bullish or bearish) will close aways from open, while 5% of all candles will close at open (doji). This stat is right there on chart, easy to see, but to confirm one need to do the work of collecting and analyzing the data himself.

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Quoting MaxenshteinD

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{quote} So in theory, say we have two accounts. On the first one we only open longs, on the second one we only short. Say we just open trades at the begging of the candle on both accounts with stop loses in place. Will both accounts be simultaneously profitable or both would be in a drawdown ?

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Quoting abokwaik

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The candle in discussion could be any candle, as long as its range is more than the transaction cost. It could be a yearly candle, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily, session .... M15 ... etc. The longer the time the better the outcome, but with less opportunities. Using the candle open as a reference point helps maintaining a directional bias. Day Trading example: Have a bullish bias as long as price is above daily open, session open and H1 open. Enter Long on pullbacks, SL below daily open, first target at previous swing high. Best entries would...

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Quoting MaxenshteinD

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Usually when price is stuck at one or the other extremum of the candle, it will keep on updating it.

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Quoting abokwaik

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{quote} Hi LITE, Sure there are, this is the first one I found searching FF : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=167650 Regards, Khalil

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Quoting Broke

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{quote} There's a name for that, it's called "fat tails". Very hard to build something solid with +ev around it. Maybe think about what else you can do with the limited information you have available?

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