Central Banks & Big Players

hmm...Your thread got some quite hard personal debate...
What I meant was that when price spikes, there will be of course pending orders that are getting filled. They are mostly limit orders, which are for sure filled. However, limit orders have to be on "wrong" side of spike (buy when spike is down).

Stop orders (like stop loss) are for right direction, but they are not there waiting for to get filled. Broker executes them when price hits certain level. It may take some milliseconds, but at spikes those milliseconds matter a lot.
Attached a picture from dukascopy tick chart at usd/cad selling spike last week. As you see, first tick was about 80 pips below original price, and it is highly potential, that even on that price any bigger order wouldn´t get filled.

I am not saying, that your system couldn´t work, but slippage is a major thing and will occur on spikes because of the market structure.
Earlier (like 10 years ago) some brokers were promising "no slippage", and news straddling must have caused them huge losses.

Dukas is like the crazy street preachers you see in the Bible Belt of the USA. He just won't stop no matter who comes to take him on at the plate, so to speak.

There is very little objective truth in the market other than results. Reality is traders can only execute properly on methods that are comfortable to them. Neither Tony nor Dukas has the supreme system to catch all the pips, and yet the only person who seems to be arguing otherwise here is Dukas.

I'm not going to waste my time arguing basic math to someone who doesn't seem to understand how liquidity works. One of the first trading methods I tried was straddling, and I abandoned it quickly simply because I didn't like how my orders got filled and how my trades worked out for me when I did it. And I certainly tried to get optimal results and it just wasn't that great. But the reality is that you can make money trading that way, and really no trading system is perfect. Ideally, everyone just does something that is intuitive to them and by sticking to the plan and MM strategy makes at least a few percent profit a month. 3-5% is really quite good in real numbers. However Tony's system has R:R potential that can take you far beyond that, or match it with very minimal leverage. There is something to be said for that. Which is why we're all here having a real discussion about this. If you can't respect that, Dukas, then you are truly a child.

I came here to read about a breakout strategy. I just signed up to ask Duka to stop talking about slippage and get the thread back on topic. Typing multiple long paragraphs of negativity toward Tony is childish. Thank you Tony for starting this thread, and to everyone for keeping it alive and informative.

Sorry for the late reply.

Ok, obviously there is 10 years of content in here. Joy and pain. What I suggest you to do is to trade main events like NFP, AUD Employment, CAD employment, or CAD CPI. This is the cream of the crop. I'm also gonna give you another shortcut: use Oanda. I don't work for them but they respect, most of the time, the SL (stop-loss) during main events like that. They are very honest.

Don't try trading 7 pip candles on a 1 second chart. Too much noise these days. Stick to what I told you and you will normally make money out of it.

SL holds on institutional size account on Oanda. I don't work for them, I just reflect the reality here.

dukas_trader is a Douche

Gertjan Vlieghe speach

keep your eyes open Tony

black events

Ok, thank you very much sir

Knee jerking whipsaw action on FOMC because it's too confusing for traders. It's not like NFP where real numbers come out.

Hey Tony! It's great seeing you around still. I was following you years ago but dismissed your thread because it looked 2 simple. After years of struggling and making everything complicated the more I've realized you can't predict the market! Your strategy now makes a TON of sense.

I'm opening an account with Oanda to start getting a feel for your strategy I love the fact you don't have to sit at the computer for hours at a time. You just trade during the major news and then you can go about your day.

I read that you have a VIP account so you get less slippage? Did I read that correctly? I will have a small deposit so will this massively affect my results? I will trade using the exact rules and guidelines you use on Page 1.

Back in 2012 you were trading waiting for a 400 pip profit before closing out, is that your goal or are you mainly sticking to 120?

I know you trade outside of this strategy as well, is it possible to make a living sticking to these strict guidelines without doing other trading? ( I want to keep this as simple as possible, I'm tired of jumping around trying to find the holy grail haha)

You have my respect sir! 10 years is IMPRESSIVE!!

Tony,

Regarding the document in the 1st post:

How do you know whether to buy or sell 2 minutes before the news?
Do you just guess and take an 18 pip loss if you're wrong?

BeeHivesJoe! I remember you! I have a good memory. I hope you didn't get stung by too many bees and hopefully you accumulated a little bit of honey! If the bears ate your honey, well don't worry and welcome back at your old honey bee garden farm! We're moving a lot of honey here!

OK, be reassured. Nothing has change since you left. Nothing at all. If you can't open and institutional account with oanda, it doesn't matter, they don't have huge spreads on news like before (rarely) and mostly respect pretty much the stop-losses (exceptions exist) They are VERY good. Just open a normal account, you'll be fine.

Stick with a smaller TP (80 to 120 pips). SL around 16-18 pips. Low volatility days exist too and we have to make sure we eat some honey without waiting for too long.

Weekly, I post the news to trade here. They are highlighted in black. I also do chart surveillance but this is very dangerous and takes a lot of expertise to sort out the good bursting candles from the bad. I think you should just stick to the basics to start. Just the major news.

Welcome back!

It doesn't matter, just toss a coin. Regardless, markets are random.

I'm in profit with CAD/USD. It hasn't hit 120 pips TP. How long do I let it run?
Thanks

Take it now.

I did. Made about 30 pips. It went on and made about 100 pips. I'm not complaining.
What is the general rule on this in the future?