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AUD/USD

Quoting MrPresident
fell fast after the FOMC and it will probably remain in a range between 0.8060 and 0.7940
lol free money
Don't Worry Be Happy
Possible inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 15 min chart, hoping for a small reversal.
However, technicals are probably not that accurate at the moment, force majeures (like gold) are dragging this down.

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There's little probability of success with such a pattern on such an ltf imo; an htf like H4 or higher offers a better proposition.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting fxmars
Possible inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 15 min chart, hoping for a small reversal. However, technicals are probably not that accurate at the moment, force majeures (like gold) are dragging this down. {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Quoting KeenPips
There's little probability of success with such a pattern on such an ltf imo; an htf like H4 or higher offers a better proposition. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Yeah, i generally agree with you that these patterns work best on 4hrs and up.
But given how oversold the AUD was, it was a good enough qualifier for a reversal scalp.
Took 17 pips on it. Out now.
Quoting Violenteer
{quote} thanks for the screenshot. What are you trying to say?

I was hoping the chart would do the talking......but now that I think about it......everyone leaves a commentary with their screenshot......i will be mindful of that going forward
Focus
AUDUSD Needs to quit playing around it looks like it wants to go higher so bad.
Quoting realclout
AUDUSD Needs to quit playing around it looks like it wants to go higher so bad.
If I am thrown out of a 10 storey building, I reckon I wouldn't want to go any higher.
Quoting msfu
{quote} If I am thrown out of a 10 storey building, I reckon I wouldn't want to go any higher.
What do you mean?
looks like it might go down since the daily closed below 0.7940

maybe it will go to 0.7840 and then 0.7780
Don't Worry Be Happy
Quoting realclout
AUDUSD Needs to quit playing around it looks like it wants to go higher so bad.
you need it to go higher because you are stuck in longs you mean ?

HOW DOES IT LOOK LIKE IT WANTS TO GO HIGHER

unless you are trading tick chart or 1m chart or something
Quoting realclout
{quote} What do you mean?
He means price is very bearish on the larger time frames, rejection wicks, trend lines broken, etc etc. Gold and iron ore prices down. Why try and swim upstream?

Maybe a little 30-40 pip erection before heading down to the next demand zone?
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"Pride always comes before destruction...." -Proverbs 16:18
Even though i'm biased short, but a part of me is telling me that AU isn't like the past whereby the drops will be massive and rapid. There seems to be some forms of support at .7900- .7910, preventing it from falling further down. Well, otherwise it could just be consolidation for the next move up or down.

I won't rule out this pair going back up again (it has always been the case for this year)
Quoting SkyrEk
Even though i'm biased short, but a part of me is telling me that AU isn't like the past whereby the drops will be massive and rapid. There seems to be some forms of support at .7900- .7910, preventing it from falling further down. Well, otherwise it could just be consolidation for the next move up or down. I won't rule out this pair going back up again (it has always been the case for this year)
The form of support preventing it from falling further is the impact of the market pricing in the US tax reform, this will entice companies with massive profits outside of the USA to repatriate them. The USA might not be able to achieve the tax rates of some of the tax havens used by the likes of GOOG and AAPL, so the exchange rate differential will provide the required offset.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeshep.../#1d98d3254dfe

The FOMC decision should have supported the USD, but it has not except for the knee-jerk, their data was released with precision to allow the impending tax reform to take centre stage.

Shorting this pair is like shorting the Aussie banks, also known as the widow-maker trade.
Quoting Vitallica
{quote} The form of support preventing it from falling further is the impact of the market pricing in the US tax reform, this will entice companies with massive profits outside of the USA to repatriate them. The USA might not be able to achieve the tax rates of some of the tax havens used by the likes of GOOG and AAPL, so the exchange rate differential will provide the required offset. https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeshep.../#1d98d3254dfe The FOMC decision should have supported...
Thanks for the info!
Quoting Vitallica
{quote} The form of support preventing it from falling further is the impact of the market pricing in the US tax reform, this will entice companies with massive profits outside of the USA to repatriate them. The USA might not be able to achieve the tax rates of some of the tax havens used by the likes of GOOG and AAPL, so the exchange rate differential will provide the required offset. https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeshep.../#1d98d3254dfe The FOMC decision should have supported...
most of the aussie banks are struggling with bad debt. thats what i read on the financial times the other day but yes does not mean aussie will fall in a straight line. i still maintain 7180 feb 2016 was the low in the aussie and the area from 7700-7800 is full of support. just shorted eur/aud
Quoting giveachance
{quote} most of the aussie banks are struggling with bad debt. thats what i read on the financial times the other day but yes does not mean aussie will fall in a straight line. i still maintain 7180 feb 2016 was the low in the aussie and the area from 7700-7800 is full of support. just shorted eur/aud
I agree on the Aussie banks, but the problem the US hedge funds encountered here on their failed shorting campaign was that the banks are fully franked dividend stock favourites of the superannuation funds who simply buy more as soon as retail investors lose their nerve (http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...26-gp4a91.html).

I saw a great post the other day, recommending that we stay away from being economists and remember that we are trading here, so I won't make to much of it, but even JP Morgan seem to admit that they don't quite understand what moves the AUD (http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...15-gxx4dv.html).

Even with the Australian Government gouging investors they should embrace, the wealthy from China and South East Asia can accommodate them.(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-tax-you-mate).
A major problem with focussing much on fundamentals is that we retail traders don't have an edge. By the time we have a fundie knowledge we'll be too late to the party. You need the info before or at the point of release and also the info on exactly how it will affect the market.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Quoting Vitallica
{quote} I agree on the Aussie banks, but the problem the US hedge funds encountered here on their failed shorting campaign was that the banks are fully franked dividend stock favourites of the superannuation funds who simply buy more as soon as retail investors lose their nerve (http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...26-gp4a91.html). I saw a great post the other day, recommending that we stay away from being economists and remember that we are trading here, so I won't make...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Quoting KeenPips
A major problem with focussing much on fundamentals is that we retail traders don't have an edge. By the time we have a fundie knowledge we'll be too late to the party. You need the info before or at the point of release and also the info on exactly how it will affect the market. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
retail have and will always be late to the party but retail can catch few pips if they are on the right side. aussie rose to 8125 i think it was 2 weeks back. 200 pips fall in 2 weeks on a dollar rally. I think we are yet to form the top in the aussie for this year. 0.8000 is where it should ideally rally on this move
Quoting SkyrEk
Even though i'm biased short, but a part of me is telling me that AU isn't like the past whereby the drops will be massive and rapid. There seems to be some forms of support at .7900- .7910, preventing it from falling further down. Well, otherwise it could just be consolidation for the next move up or down. I won't rule out this pair going back up again (it has always been the case for this year)
I too expected some support where you say, but the premium support lies just below there, but its been tested a few times, admittedly....some R now at 7985 I spot, and maybe a good spot to play for a continuation, good R/R anyway, could prolly try for 8 or 10 to 1 on em....prefer the play for next week really...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I too expected some support where you say, but the premium support lies just below there, but its been tested a few times, admittedly....some R now at 7985 I spot, and maybe a good spot to play for a continuation, good R/R anyway, could prolly try for 8 or 10 to 1 on em....prefer the play for next week really... {image}
Good R&R indeed.
I will look at daily and weekly close for a better idea of where it will be heading next week. Personally, i am looking for prices to retest .7950- 7960 region again before the next move down.

Now that prices have consolidated, we can all just wait for prices to show us where its next impulsive move will go next.

15mins chart.
Tight range.
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