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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,041
  • Edited Sep 21, 2006 12:55am Sep 20, 2006 9:17pm | Edited Sep 21, 2006 12:55am
Wednesday September 20 at 22:15 ET

USD/CHF just double bottomed at 124.74

Trade Signal #184 Buy USD/CHF at 124.74

Stop is 1.2439

 Target #1 is 1.2583

 Target #2 is 1.2613

 Target #3 is 1.2640

 Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 106 / 136 / 163 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.8 / 3.6 / 4.3 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,042
  • Sep 20, 2006 10:05pm Sep 20, 2006 10:05pm
Wednesday September 20 at 23:00 ET

EUR/GBP just completed its downwards five wave pattern at .6715

Trade Signal #185 Buy EUR/GBP at .6720

Stop is .6705

 Target is .6805

Risk is 18 pips

Reward is 82 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,043
  • Edited Sep 21, 2006 12:56am Sep 20, 2006 10:32pm | Edited Sep 21, 2006 12:56am
Wednesday September 20 at 23:30 ET

USD/CAD just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 1.1350 or above.

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270

Stop is 1.1248

 Target is 1.1350

Risk is 27 pips

Reward is 75 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,044
  • Sep 21, 2006 1:07am Sep 21, 2006 1:07am
Thursday September 21 at 2:00 ET

AUD/USD just completed its upwards second wave of a larger downwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. .7400 or below. This formed a double top at the top of an upwards corrective wave - an excellent low risk / high reward trading opportunity.

Trade Signal #187 Sell AUD/USD at .7567

Stop is .7591

 Target is .7400

Risk is 27 pips

Reward is 164 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

_______________________________________________________________

Previous update and trade signal:

AUD/USD update - Wednesday September 20 at 16:30 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday September 20 at 16:30 ET

Since the last update on AUD/USD where we advised exiting our buy position at about .7525 for a small profit, this pair has risen to form an "abc" corrective wave pattern, topping out at .7543. This would have been a good place to enter a short position targeting .7400 [not true - though this appeared to be the top of an "abc" corrective wave, in fact there were two more waves to go in the "c" wave, up to .7569]
________________________________________

Wednesday September 20 at 3:00 ET

Exit Trade Signal #168 Buy AUD/USD at market price (which is approx. .7525)

 Further study and contemplation of AUD/USD has lead us to conclude that the most likely Elliott Wave interpretation is different than the one that underlay our Trade Signal #168 Buy AUD/USD at .7514.

We had thought at the time that we were entering a buy position at the start of Wave 3 of a 5 wave upwards wave pattern. However, we now believe we entered the buy trade at the bottom of "Wave 4" and the start of "Wave 5" of an "a" upwards corrective wave. What followed was a rise of 53 pips up to the top of the "a" at .7567, then a decline to the bottom of "b" at a price of .7503, then a rise to .7573 which was the top of "c" , slightly higher than wave "a", and then a decline back down to .7504.

The price is generally expected now to decline further, so we advise exit of this trade at the market price of approximately .7525.
  • #1,045
  • Sep 21, 2006 1:37am Sep 21, 2006 1:37am
Thursday September 21 at 2:30 ET

USD/JPY just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 118.62 or above.

Trade Signal #188 Buy USD/JPY at 117.05

Stop is 116.79

Target is 118.62

Risk is 29 pips

Reward is 154 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
For research purposes only.
  • #1,046
  • Sep 21, 2006 2:03am Sep 21, 2006 2:03am
Quoting itme
Wednesday September 20 at 15:30 ET

Volatility and directional bias from the FOMC rate comments at 2:15 ET caused the existing upwards trend on GBP/USD and EUR/USD to get a spiky boost, which may or may not be over yet. Our short trade on GBP/USD met our stop in the process.

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1">2:15pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt1">Interest Rate Statement</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.25%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.25%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">5.25%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2615" style="" align="center">
</td></tr></thead> </table>

FOMC: FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 5.25%; INFLATION RISKS REMAIN

- core inflation readings have been elevated
- additional firming depends on the data
- decision was 10-1 with Lacker as lone dissenter again, preferring a 25bps increase
- inflation expectations are contained
- housing market is cooling
- economic growth moderation appears to be continuing
- reduced impetus from energy prices

We shorted GBP/USD at a lower level at 1.8830, based on a pattern that appeared to be complete. It subsequently rose to another step, and met an even more probable reversal point at 1.8923, which would have been a good place to enter a short trade.

_______________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

2nd chance to enter Trade Signal #178B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8830 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Wednesday September 20 at 4:30 ET

A second entry opportunity has just occurred:
Trade Signal #178B Sell GBP/USD at 1.8830<o></o>
<o></o>Stop is 1.8866<o></o>
Target #1 is 1.8700
Risk is 39 pips
Reward is 127 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.2 to 1<o></o>
For research purposes only.
i am looking to short 1.8960...what do you think?
{Link Removed}]
  • #1,047
  • Edited 5:09am Sep 21, 2006 2:21am | Edited 5:09am
To Kenari 05

All of the above posts pretty much size up my view on GBP/USD. I think it has topped out at 1.8937. It might rise to 1.8950 or even 1.8960, but I wouldn't count on it. If it does, it will be an excellent low risk / high reward trade opportunity.

Our stop should now be adjusted to 1.8963

Note: as of 6:00 ET Sept 21 GBP/USD rose to 1.8961. This is an excellent price zone to short this pair.
  • #1,048
  • Edited 3:01am Sep 21, 2006 2:36am | Edited 3:01am
Thursday September 21 at 3:30 ET

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270 was stopped out at 1.1248

In our theoretical experimental trading program, re-entry is advised:

Trade Signal #186A Buy USD/CAD at 1.1242

Stop is 1.1223

 Target is 1.1350

Risk is 22 pips

Reward is 105 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

___________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

USD/CAD just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 1.1350 or above.
Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270
Stop is 1.1248
Target is 1.1350
Risk is 27 pips
Reward is 75 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,049
  • Sep 21, 2006 3:57am Sep 21, 2006 3:57am
Thursday September 21 at 4:45 ET

According to our trading system there was a very good buy opportunity on CAD/JPY when it fell to 103.68. The target of this trade is 106.25, and possibly 106.75. For this to happen, USD/JPY must rise strongly, or USD/CAD must fall strongly. We didn't notice it at the time, but we will record it here retroactively in order to see how it progresses and to test our system.

Trade Signal #189 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.68
Stop is 103.32
Target #1 is 106.25
Target #2 is 106.75
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is 247 / 297 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 5.4 / 6.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,050
  • Sep 21, 2006 5:02am Sep 21, 2006 5:02am
Thursday September 21 at 6:00 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #183 Sell GBP/USD to 1.8973

GBP/USD has come up to a recent high of 1.8961, just 2 pips short of the adjusted stop ( " Our stop should now be adjusted to 1.8963"). According to the current pattern, our stop adjustment procedure places the adjusted stop at 1.8973
 __________________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Adjust stop or re-enter if necessary Trade Signal #183 Sell GBP/USD <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday September 20 at 22:00 ET

Upon careful inspection, it turns out that according to our system the correct stop on this short GBP/USD trade should be 1.8955. And there is always a likelihood that a pair will double top at the previous high, which was 1.8925. So the stop needs to be at least 15 pips higher than this price, which is 1.8940. The current high is 1.8923. Re-enter if necessary and raise stop to 1.8955 or higher. Same target as before.
_____________________________________________

Wednesday September 20 at 20:30 ET

It is easier to identify the approximate top of a corrective Wave 2 than the top of a trend which is at the top (or bottom) of Wave 5. GBP/USD peaked out at 1.8924 this morning in the strong trend that the FOMC announcement volatility helped carry to its end. It then retraced down 60 pips to 1.8864 in a Wave 1 downtrend, and then went up in a Wave 2 corrective wave. We believe that 1.8895 may be at or near to the top of this corrective wave.

Trade Signal #183 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8895
Stop is 1.8921
Target #1 is 1.8700
Target #2 is 1.8580
Target #3 is 1.8500
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 192 / 312 / 392 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.6 / 10.7 / 13.5 to 1
For research purposes only.
  • #1,051
  • Sep 21, 2006 5:07am Sep 21, 2006 5:07am
hello itme was just wondering are you using e wave theory now. if so i think it would be nice if you, me and wave trade could colaberate with each other kind of like james group and see what our thoughts are and rationale behind the thoughts. ive been trading ewave for a lil over a month now so far i am up o 300+ pips. just like on the usacad pair i see it going down to 1150 or lower if it opens below 1200 over the next day or two. I am really not trying to show you up or nothing like that because i have really learned this method from you but sometimes i get crossed up on my count. As i know you do because you said so in previous statements. But to make a long story short I was just wondering if the three of us could colaberate sometime to get clearer picture of wave count when we are kinda crossed up. just like the usdcad pair i think the 4 hour is in a 2 wave and daily c wave going to 1100. what do you think.http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon7.gif
  • #1,052
  • Sep 21, 2006 5:14am Sep 21, 2006 5:14am
Hi FixMe1Too,

Good suggestion. How about if we start a thread dedicated to sharing Elliott Wave count images and comments?

Itme
  • #1,053
  • Sep 21, 2006 5:25am Sep 21, 2006 5:25am
Thursday September 21 at 6:30 ET

According to the latest information, we need to adjust the stop on EUR/USD to 1.2746
_____________________________________________________

Previous comments and trade signal:

We are still short EUR/USD <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Wednesday September 20 at 17:00 ET

While we have been stopped out on our recent GBP/USD short trade, we are still holding our EUR/USD short trade from Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET . For those not already short EUR/USD, we expect this pair to rise to 1.2700 to 1.2710, which will afford a good re-entry opportunity for a trade down to 1.2555

__________________________________________________ _______

EUR/USD Update Monday September 18 17:00 ET

Last week we predicted a turnaround or reversal of the EUR/USD uptrend at 1.2750, which is what happened. However, due to problems counting the Elliott Wave on the one minute chart with a new system we have been learning, we doubted this conclusion. EUR/USD then descended 120 pips from the top of the swing wave at 1.2750 in a five wave set to 1.2630. On the upwards corrective wave my partner and I predicted a reversal point of about 1.2700, which is why I posted a prediction trade yesterday as quoted below. Now EUR/USD has risen to 1.2708. While I watched this I would have recommended in real time shorting this pair at this price ( 1.2708 ), with a stop at 1.2733 .

This shows the difference between a prediction trade and a pattern recognition trade. It is possible to enter at a more precise level and thus reduce the risk and increase the reward when the detailed pattern leading up to the entry opportunity has already been formed.

_____________________________________________

Prediction trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET

 Trade Signal #176 Sell EUR/USD at 126.97
Stop is 127.32
Target is 125.55
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 141 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
  • #1,054
  • Sep 21, 2006 5:36am Sep 21, 2006 5:36am
How many time does one adjust his stop before he recognizes that this is a losing trade?
  • #1,055
  • Edited 6:40am Sep 21, 2006 5:40am | Edited 6:40am
Thursday September 21 at 6:40 ET

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD adjust stop to 1.1219

[Update as of 7:45 ET --- Adjust stop to 1.1205 ]
_____________________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Thursday September 21 at 3:30 ET

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270 was stopped out at 1.1248

In our theoretical experimental trading program, re-entry is advised:
Trade Signal #186A Buy USD/CAD at 1.1242
Stop is 1.1223
Target is 1.1350
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 105 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

__________________________________________________ _

USD/CAD just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 1.1350 or above.
Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270
Stop is 1.1248
Target is 1.1350
Risk is 27 pips
Reward is 75 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,056
  • Sep 21, 2006 6:05am Sep 21, 2006 6:05am
Thursday September 21 at 6:45 ET

Trade Signal #183A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8985
Stop is 1.9011
Target #1 is 1.8700
Target #2 is 1.8580
Target #3 is 1.8500
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 282 / 402 / 482 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.7 / 13.9 / 16.6 to 1
For research purposes only.
  • #1,057
  • Sep 21, 2006 6:18am Sep 21, 2006 6:18am
Thursday September 21 at 4:50 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #188 Buy USD/JPY to 116.66

_________________________________________________________

Thursday September 21 at 2:30 ET

USD/JPY just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 118.62 or above.
Trade Signal #188 Buy USD/JPY at 117.05
Stop is 116.79
Target is 118.62
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 154 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1
For research purposes only.
  • #1,058
  • Sep 21, 2006 6:55am Sep 21, 2006 6:55am
itme i started the thread trading using the thread Trading Using The Elliot Wave. I have two signal but still reviewing target take profit. buy usdchf like you said and sell eurcad now. wave 2 on 4hr for usdchf and b wave on daily.
  • #1,059
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:35am Sep 21, 2006 7:35am
Do you only accept positive replies to your thread? I placed a reply just moments ago on your thread, and it amazed me that it is already removed in in just a moment of time!
  • #1,060
  • Sep 21, 2006 8:14am Sep 21, 2006 8:14am
Thursday September 21 at 9:15 ET

According to the latest information, we need to adjust the stop on EUR/USD to 1.2761
__________________________________________________ ___

Previous comments and trade signal:

We are still short EUR/USD

According to the latest information, we need to adjust the stop on EUR/USD to 1.2746
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Wednesday September 20 at 17:00 ET

While we have been stopped out on our recent GBP/USD short trade, we are still holding our EUR/USD short trade from Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET . For those not already short EUR/USD, we expect this pair to rise to 1.2700 to 1.2710, which will afford a good re-entry opportunity for a trade down to 1.2555

__________________________________________________ _______

EUR/USD Update Monday September 18 17:00 ET

Last week we predicted a turnaround or reversal of the EUR/USD uptrend at 1.2750, which is what happened. However, due to problems counting the Elliott Wave on the one minute chart with a new system we have been learning, we doubted this conclusion. EUR/USD then descended 120 pips from the top of the swing wave at 1.2750 in a five wave set to 1.2630. On the upwards corrective wave my partner and I predicted a reversal point of about 1.2700, which is why I posted a prediction trade yesterday as quoted below. Now EUR/USD has risen to 1.2708. While I watched this I would have recommended in real time shorting this pair at this price ( 1.2708 ), with a stop at 1.2733 .

This shows the difference between a prediction trade and a pattern recognition trade. It is possible to enter at a more precise level and thus reduce the risk and increase the reward when the detailed pattern leading up to the entry opportunity has already been formed.

_____________________________________________

Prediction trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET

 Trade Signal #176 Sell EUR/USD at 126.97
Stop is 127.32
Target is 125.55
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 141 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.8 to 1

For research purposes only.
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