Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Thursday September 21 at 9:30 ET

It was obviously a big mistake to enter a trade to buy USD/CAD before a major announcement, and then to adjust the stop, because as this morning illustrates, a major impulse can be added to the market in the wrong direction relative to one's trade by a major announcement such as this if the data is much different from what is expected. I failed to assess the impact of major announcements on this trade. I may have also read the Elliott Wave pattern incorrectly. I will have to assess this chart long and hard to see what the problem was. <table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1">8:30am</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">CAD</td> <td class="alt1">Retail Sales m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">1.5%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.5%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2622" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2622" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

Monthly volatility has been high over the past few months.

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the monthly change in total value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend indicates higher consumer spending, which is an important driver of the economy.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">8:30am</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">CAD</td> <td class="alt1">Retail Sales excl. Autos m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.7%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.3%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.1%</td></tr></thead> </table>
Trade Signal #190 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1190

Stop is 1.1169

Target is 1.1300

Risk is 25 pips

Reward is 106 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.2 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Previous trade signals:

Thursday September 21 at 6:40 ET

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD adjust stop to 1.1219

[Update as of 7:45 ET --- Adjust stop to 1.1205 ]
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Thursday September 21 at 3:30 ET

Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270 was stopped out at 1.1248

In our theoretical experimental trading program, re-entry is advised:
Trade Signal #186A Buy USD/CAD at 1.1242
Stop is 1.1223
Target is 1.1350
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 105 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.8 to 1
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USD/CAD just completed its downwards second wave of a larger upwards fifth wave pattern targetting approx. 1.1350 or above.
Trade Signal #186 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1270
Stop is 1.1248
Target is 1.1350
Risk is 27 pips
Reward is 75 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 2.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Itme, in a situation like this, when you are doing wave analysis and you have to push back your stops multiple times, does it mean you've encountered an unusually strong wave? Will that change your wave counts?

Have you got any results on how well your trades go i.e. number of pips up or down this week/month?

This is off topic and Itme has already explained this. please read back in the thread..

Thanks Scott

Please consult this recent answer to that question:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...nce#post101844

Thursday September 21 at 10:00 ET

Trade Signal #185A Buy EUR/GBP at .6705

Stop is .6898

Target is .6805

Risk is 10 pips

Reward is 104 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 10.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: we should have simply adjusted the stop in this case, but we were too busy to do so, so we just re-entered the trade. We will have to find a way to get in further along in the trend, so that we don't have to adjust the stops so often.

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Previous trade signal:

Wednesday September 20 at 23:00 ET
EUR/GBP just completed its downwards five wave pattern at .6715
Trade Signal #185 Buy EUR/GBP at .6720
Stop is .6705
Target is .6805
Risk is 18 pips
Reward is 82 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.5 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Thursday September 21 at 10:15 ET

Trade Signal #191 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3728
Stop is 2.3746
Target #1 is 2.3210
Risk is 33 pips
Reward is 503 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 15.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: this trade signal got stopped out when GBP/CHF went up one more wave to 1.3771. Obviously I got mixed up in counting or miscounted this upwards wave. This highlights the necessity of labelling each and every wave when doing a wave count, and checking the count over and over.

a little skeptical about this but hope it works !!!!!

What are you skeptical about, wastwatch?

Have you got any results on how well your trades go i.e. number of pips up or down this week/month?

AND

How long on avearge do you hold trades?
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Again, I respectfully ask you to please read the thread. This has been answered several times. Anymore of this same request will be deleted...

Thanks Scott

I dont uderstand whats the deal with you guys recently.. you all have a postcount of just 5-7 total total posts and come here only to ask where what is going and when.. With the derth of posters like you in past weeks I think its only one guy posting with different names.. you dont use your brains; if you want to trade like that all your life than why not just invest in some Mutual Fund or managed funds.. or is it their minimum account opening requirement is too high for you? Do you have any commitment to forex markets or any desire to learn anything from his posts or you just want a tip?

Thursday September 21 at 11:45 ET

Trade Signal #191A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3770

Stop is 2.3792

Target #1 is 2.3210

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 545 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 14.7 to 1

For research purposes only.
_________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Thursday September 21 at 10:15 ET

Trade Signal #191 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3728
Stop is 2.3746
Target #1 is 2.3210
Risk is 33 pips
Reward is 503 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 15.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday September 21 at 11:55 ET

At the time of the Phily data release, the EUR/USD stop should be adjusted to 1.2781, or better yet, trade the release for a profit up, then sell from 1.2766.

Correction: the stop would have had to be increased to 1.2804 to be safe during this data release. It would have probably been prudent to either trade the announcement by monitoring the release on a split second basis, or put in a tight stop and re-enter the short position when the complete Elliott Wave had been played out.

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Adjust stop Trade Signal #176 Sell EUR/USD <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Thursday September 21 at 9:15 ET

According to the latest information, we need to adjust the stop on EUR/USD to 1.2761
__________________________________________________ ___

Previous comments and trade signal:

We are still short EUR/USD

According to the latest information, we need to adjust the stop on EUR/USD to 1.2746
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Wednesday September 20 at 17:00 ET

While we have been stopped out on our recent GBP/USD short trade, we are still holding our EUR/USD short trade from Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET . For those not already short EUR/USD, we expect this pair to rise to 1.2700 to 1.2710, which will afford a good re-entry opportunity for a trade down to 1.2555

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EUR/USD Update Monday September 18 17:00 ET

Last week we predicted a turnaround or reversal of the EUR/USD uptrend at 1.2750, which is what happened. However, due to problems counting the Elliott Wave on the one minute chart with a new system we have been learning, we doubted this conclusion. EUR/USD then descended 120 pips from the top of the swing wave at 1.2750 in a five wave set to 1.2630. On the upwards corrective wave my partner and I predicted a reversal point of about 1.2700, which is why I posted a prediction trade yesterday as quoted below. Now EUR/USD has risen to 1.2708. While I watched this I would have recommended in real time shorting this pair at this price ( 1.2708 ), with a stop at 1.2733 .

This shows the difference between a prediction trade and a pattern recognition trade. It is possible to enter at a more precise level and thus reduce the risk and increase the reward when the detailed pattern leading up to the entry opportunity has already been formed.

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Prediction trade signal:

Monday September 18 at 2:00 ET

Trade Signal #176 Sell EUR/USD at 126.97
Stop is 127.32
Target is 125.55
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 141 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday September 21 at 11:55 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #183A Sell GBP/USD
At the time of the Phily data release, the GBP/USD stop should be adjusted to 1.9031, or better yet, trade the release for a profit up, then sell from 1.9020.
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Trade Signal #183A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8985 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Thursday September 21 at 6:45 ET

Trade Signal #183A Sell GBP/USD at 1.8985
Stop is 1.9011
Target #1 is 1.8700
Target #2 is 1.8580
Target #3 is 1.8500
Risk is 29 pips
Reward is 282 / 402 / 482 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 9.7 / 13.9 / 16.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday September 21 at 11:55 ET

Trade Signal #176A Sell EUR/USD at 1.2785

Stop is 1.2810

Target #1 is 1.2600

Risk is 27 pips

Reward is 183 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 6.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

The correct time to adjust the stop is BEFORE the Philly data release, at 11:55 ET, and the stop on USD/CHF should be adjusted to 1.2415.

Or better yet, trade the release for a profit down, by monitoring the release on a split second basis, then buy again when the Elliott Wave pattern down is complete.
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Adjust stop Trade Signal #184 Buy USD/CHF at 124.74 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Wednesday September 20 at 22:15 ET

Trade Signal #184 Buy USD/CHF at 124.74

Stop is 1.2439

Target #1 is 1.2550

Target #2 is 1.2610

Target #3 is 1.2660

Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 73 / 136 / 163 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 1.9 / 3.5 / 4.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

Man why delete my post?

Can you explain yourself please?

the time the post was posted was 12:14 pm

after the 1.9011 stop was taken out...

Don't delete my post, just explain yourself.

http://img47.imageshack.us/img47/3866/postij3.jpg

so youa re saying these are not tips on when to trade?

Yes that is correct