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  • #281
  • Sep 20, 2017 3:50pm Sep 20, 2017 3:50pm
I dont think there will be a pullback from this. ECB and any Draghi speech do anything on euro rise. It's going down to 1.16 may be below. My only concern is geopolitics.
  • #282
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:28pm Sep 20, 2017 4:28pm
EURUSD - H1 and Daily Outlook for Tomorrow (Thursday)

This time chart looks a little bit colored.. sorry for that..

  1. On the daily chart I spotted a hidden MACD divergence that might push price back to breakout levels. So careful when buying and selling.
  2. On daily the S1 support line is still holding.. Daily closing price above or below it will tell more. (1.1894/99 area)
  3. 1.1955 seems to be the extreme high retest area on Daily.

  1. On hourly chart 1.1985 is still in play but very distant. I still prefer to keep that level in the back of my head.
  2. To look for shorts again I focus more on 1.1925/55 area on hourly. (Based on the effect of past candles, which will act as resistance now together with the descending blue trendline and the blue Moving Average line)
  3. For now I drew a simple support line below candle lows but that might get pierced from sideways move during slow asia session. So ignore that for now.
  4. The main signal I am looking for is the blue MACD signal line coming closer to the gray MACD main line. If they touch or blue crosses above the gray I would look for sell. In choppy markets we would buy with a cross but here we must look for sell. Weird but it is the only way to sell high.
  5. If S1 doesn't hold we should get out from any longs immediately and look to short again based on your own strategies.

This was my view on this. I hope it helps for tomorrow.

Stay Green

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #283
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:00pm Sep 20, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
EURUSD - H1 and Daily Outlook for Tomorrow (Thursday) This time chart looks a little bit colored.. sorry for that.. On the daily chart I spotted a hidden MACD divergence that might push price back to breakout levels. So careful when buying and selling. On daily the S1 support line is still holding.. Daily closing price above or below it will tell more. (1.1894/99 area) 1.1955 seems to be the extreme high retest area on Daily. On hourly chart 1.1985 is still in play but very distant. I still prefer to keep that level in the back of my head. To look...
If I interpreted that divergence right it called " bear set up" , price way higher than moving average. My stochastic spotted it too. 1930 I see as a top of possible retrace. But I am hoping for momentum of today's news for 1825 . Time will tell. I am looking my profit at 1938.
  • #284
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:17pm Sep 20, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting denisius
{quote} If I interpreted that divergence right it called " bear set up" , price way higher than moving average. My stochastic spotted it too. 1930 I see as a top of possible retrace. But I am hoping for momentum of today's news for 1825 . Time will tell. I am looking my profit at 1938.
Well I don't feel like it is called a bear setup since that hidden divergence actually delays the bear setup.. but don't know for sure what else this is called.. I am only sure it is hidden divergence to me.

So, yes it was a fast evening and then we hit the brakes real fast. Market slow no vola. Therefore first we need a good rest. Tomorrow inside Frankfurt we can reconsider based on situation. No worries there are plenty of pips there for all of us. But if you are in a hurry step over to M30 chart and watch MACD line..
Since it has already crossed and climbed above gray line there now all you have to watch is a breakout of supportive trendline. But enter only if M30 candles haven't made any higher highs. If they did a higher high then skip any following breakouts and wait for a lower high to happen first. Then you can jump in with more confidence right after a breakout and sell earlier than H1 traders. Of course if you have the energy to trade the whole Asia session. But you can use this strategy also to just close your buy at the right time. Also possible. Just think about it for a while.

I am calling it a day. Too tired. Good night folks...

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #285
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:28pm Sep 20, 2017 5:28pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Well I don't feel like it is called a bear setup since that hidden divergence actually delays the bear setup.. but don't know for sure what else this is called.. I am only sure it is hidden divergence to me. So, yes it was a fast evening and then we hit the brakes real fast. Market slow no vola. Therefore first we need a good rest. Tomorrow inside Frankfurt we can reconsider based on situation. No worries there are plenty of pips there for all of us. But if you are in a hurry step over to M30 chart and watch MACD line.. Since it has already...
Thanks Ata. Always wise vision. We will see tomorrow how that divergence played.
  • #286
  • Sep 20, 2017 5:40pm Sep 20, 2017 5:40pm
My confidence in euros direction is junk atm. Pulling out ahead for the day with 47 pips and placing the margin in a pair I feel good about. Back to the euro when I see something I want to trade!
  • #287
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:21pm Sep 20, 2017 9:21pm
EU looks destined for 1.12 & maybe 1.09.
However with the move yesterday, today will probably be a retracement day with price moving back to around 1.1975.
Waiting for price to top 1.19 to confirm that.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #288
  • Sep 20, 2017 10:04pm Sep 20, 2017 10:04pm
Oh I think a bounce off 1850 -40 will allow 1.2 again
  • #289
  • Sep 20, 2017 10:27pm Sep 20, 2017 10:27pm
IF break 1.18832, I will Buy @1.1885 TP 1.19850 SL 1.18590
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  • #290
  • Sep 20, 2017 11:44pm Sep 20, 2017 11:44pm
From the daily charts imo it’s still bullish with a SUPPORT at 1.18000 & 1.8250. Any comments on this? tq
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #291
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:07am Sep 21, 2017 12:07am
Quoting okshop
From the daily charts imo it’s still bullish with a SUPPORT at 1.18000 & 1.8250. Any comments on this? tq {image}
Pending long at 1852.
  • #292
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:19am Sep 21, 2017 12:19am
Quoting Venomousssss
{quote} Pending long at 1852.
may be nothing or may be something to take in too acct,,,,,,,,,the preceeding 2 drops from the highs ,,,1st one was a 247 pip fall , 2nd one was 254 pips,,,,,,current one is 167 ,,,,,, may be worth a little wait ,,,,,,,currently flirting with a rough monthly average ,,,,which if it does get below it and a daily close it would be the 1st time in 5 1/2 months ,,,,,may be worth seeing if it does near what the 1st 2 drops did which would put it around 1800,,,,,,,not looking overly bouncy as of yet ,,,,,,anyway cheers man
  • #293
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:50am Sep 21, 2017 12:50am
Quoting littlemole85
If I would be such pervert to trade FOMC with buy orders (as I expect new high above 1.21), here is my analysis based on PAs. In the last 6 days we saw a lot of spikes, where the price immediately dropped and came back. I suspect heavy (or not heavy) buy orders have been filled and "THEY" wanted a good price to buy it (or defend their current positions) and push it to new highs. Based on my chart I would say the 1.1950 is well defended, but a spike could look below. If the price will be still around 1.200x before FOMC, I would: Buy Limit: 1.1965...
Well, I hope nobody traded my conspiracy theory
THe only thing which could push it back to the new high is a sentence from Draghi: "Am I said QE? Sorry, I was drunk, I mean that no QE in the future"
My D1 support trendline still not hit, I don't expect any pullback now. The waves would be: 1.touch of the D1 trendline (1.185x) 2. Little correction 3. Draghi will drop it and the H4 H&S formation would reach 1.166x.
Below the D1 trendline I will be bearish for the next couple of weeks
  • #294
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:01am Sep 21, 2017 1:01am
And this is what Iam trading today. Current limit shorts: 1.1890 and 1.1905 Stop: 1.1925 TP:1.1856
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  • #295
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:07am Sep 21, 2017 1:07am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} exactly what i want to see but sl = +20 now - safety first.
good morning,

to be complete: this one got hit. +20

cu @ 14:30 + 15:30 cet.

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #296
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:06am Sep 21, 2017 2:06am
getting back to scalping EU m1
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #297
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:36am Sep 21, 2017 2:36am
Still the strong Dollar, It will hit 1.840 today around US session. My target is 1.1803
  • #298
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:58am Sep 21, 2017 2:58am
Quoting littlemole85
And this is what Iam trading today. Current limit shorts: 1.1890 and 1.1905 Stop: 1.1925 TP:1.1856 {image}
Iam in with both shorts, modified my Stop to 1.1950 as 1.1927 is a 38,2 Fib retracement. TP is still on 1.1856
  • #299
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:08am Sep 21, 2017 3:08am
Quoting littlemole85
{quote} Iam in with both shorts, modified my Stop to 1.1950 as 1.1927 is a 38,2 Fib retracement. TP is still on 1.1856
pending sell limit 1.1915 (sl 5 pip / tp 28 pip)
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #300
  • Sep 21, 2017 3:29am Sep 21, 2017 3:29am
EURUSD-H1 and Daily Outlook for Today

Hi folks.. Happy trading day to all..

So far once I checked the chart what I noticed first is that Asia session didn't do much at all. Things started boiling after London opening. But even that is progressing slowly. The chart speaks for itself but let me go over the few things quickly. Preparing these charts requires some serious time and I don't want to miss out the market flow. So forgive me if I sometimes keep it short in explaining or skipping explaining at all by just using the chart.

  1. On daily chart S1 support line is still holding. Together with the Hidden MACD Divergence that is a sign of the bullish power that we are watching today.
  2. On daily we still watch what will happen once price nears 1.1955
  3. On hourly I drew a dashed blue line to mark the steep trend to the downside. That line broke at 1.1876 and as soon as that happened we could put a line there and watch if candles come back from above to retest it. And it did. 2 different hourly candles touched that area for a retest but none could fall back below it. If any candle would close below that line we would look to close our longs in a best way we could.
  4. Now hourly candles are headed to the potential sell zone. 1.1925 - 1.1945 area.
  5. I now focus on the S1 support line on H1 chart. I also will re-position the S1 support line regarding to every new candle because that will give us a higher sell entry point later.
  6. I might repeat myself but I have to remind you that trend is bearish. Don't focus too much on buying. Keep your longs but be in standby mode for shorting, my half cents.

Stay Green

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