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The Paradox System

  • #11,241
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:30am Sep 20, 2017 7:30am
Quoting Therapsid
Friends who have trades open, have you checked the news calendar today? I'd specifically draw your attention to post #9164. Happy trading to all.
Hi Therapsid,
I am aware about FOMC at 14.00 NYT, and specially today. Probably it is not going to be about hiking the rate today but about balance sheet. I entered market earlier in the morning so i have lot of time to close the trade. I believe in Paradox so we will see, if there will be enough time for me to hit TP till FOMC.

Have a nice day,

Pedro
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,242
  • Sep 20, 2017 7:48am Sep 20, 2017 7:48am
There are Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 which is high impact USD news. I always put a "NEWS: " header at the top of my plans with the high impact news release closest in the future. Not from the very beginning, but after Dana reprimanded everyone for not keeping track of the news (which is 100% fair, no complaints), so after that I have not traded during announcements, even if it is just oil inventories I still close out my trade.
  • #11,243
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:36am Sep 20, 2017 9:36am
NEWS: 10:30 AM USD High Impact
Tuesday Trading Plan


Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.158
Last SAR Attachment - Top at 134.158
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Daily is up with ROMAR, EMA and 4 horsemen as support. Market imbalanced with Purple. Fibo bumped higher in the uptrend. Upper band opening up. 4 horsemen spread upwards for the uptrend. Waiting on the new candle but 23.6 will be support once the Fibo adjusts.

H4:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.158
Last SAR Attachment - Top at 134.158
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Up with ROMAR, EMA, and the 4 horsemen.DB/SAR on top. 4 horsemen in trend with open candle at White support. EMA confluence with 23.6 support. Bands wide apart.

H2:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.158
Last SAR Attachment - Top at 133.884
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: ROMAR, EMA and the Parabolic support. Purple, White and smooth are in a slider. SAR attached on top, meaning the next attachment is on the bottom. EMA arrow up with MACD still down. Parabolic is near EMA for the flip but not anticipating until it does so. ROMAR exiting the Bollinger Bands.

H1:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: H1 chart is up with ROMAR, EMA, and the 4 horsemen. Parabolic is also support. We have 23.6 holding resistance with the contour line down. MACD is still down with EMA arrow up

Final Notes: Market in consolidation at the top of an uptrend. Daily and H4 charts are up with the Daily imbalance and H4 market in the 4 horsemen trend channel. H2 is in consolidation with Purple under White and Smooth sliding, but above EMA. SAR on top so the next attachment is on the bottom.

Entry: Short at 18:00 open candle with SAR on top, MACD below 0. Indication of next attachment on the bottom

Rules:

SAR on top so in the uptrend next attachment is on bottom.
Pip count to H2 23.6 and H4 23.6 + EMA

Evaluation: Closed trade at 133.609 about 17 pips, 5 minutes profit taken before news. Market was pretty slow during Tokyo and just moved sideways so my TP/SL were not hit. I'm not sure that this was a successful trade because there was a Smooth slider but there was the SAR on top which held market down. 4 horsemen were turning up but we were at the top and going down. I forgot to screenshot but the print is there, so all good. H2 SAR held market down and I did the H4 and Daily pip counts to EMA and Purple respectively, but I'm not sure if I feel comfortable with the trade.(edit: Arrow is actually a candle later than I took the trade, it should be on the 1800 not the 2000. )
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  • #11,244
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:17pm Sep 20, 2017 1:17pm
Quoting Pandakker
Date :20170920 @ 02:00 EDT / 0800 CEST Daily : ROMAR -Support EMA -Support PSAR -Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing :Up Last EMA Alert Arrow :Up Last DB Attachment :Top @ 134.158 Last SAR Attachment :Top @ 134.158 Fibo up or down :Red Notes Daily in full uptrend. Romar EMA and 4 Horsemen all up. DB/SAR and Divergences connect with top. Daily imbalanced for 4th bar. 4 HR: ROMAR -Support EMA -Support PSAR -Support Check List: Last DB Attachment :Top @ 134.158 Last SAR Attachment :Top @ 134.158 Fibo up or down :Red Notes : 4Hr in uptrend for...
No trade for me. The overall picture was not clear for me today. Also the news events in the afternoon/evening kept me from trading.
  • #11,245
  • Sep 20, 2017 1:41pm Sep 20, 2017 1:41pm
Quoting pedro7676
Hi guys, new day new plan, i was looking for short yesterday but there was not right moment to entered short so i did not. Date: 20.09.17 10.00 EET (4.00 NYT) Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA – Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - Up Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up prior of the MACD Last DB Attachment - Both DB/SAR attached on top Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom Notes: The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend, Daily imbalanced. 4 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Notes: : Purple crossed White. 2 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA...
Evaluation : I closed this trade (133.625) with small profit 5 min before the news. It was opened 10 hours unable to hit TP or SL because of low volatility ahead of FOMC meeting.
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,246
  • Sep 20, 2017 2:02pm Sep 20, 2017 2:02pm
traders, took the long trade with a hit on the H2 PSAR thinking it would hold as support no White purple cross, hit on H4 smooth and H1 38.2 fib
SAR attaching as Smooth crossed purple expecting to go to DB.
i waited till i had +40 to fib, spread and "slippage" took me close to the top fib.
closed + 5 pips when it wasnt going anywhere and news imminent and was tired of being hurt by the news.

P.S not a good trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Stop killing our Oceans, Stop using single use plastics.
  • #11,247
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:03pm Sep 20, 2017 4:03pm
Something of note - "When you have the BOJ policy rate followed by a monetary statement, most of the time the Monetary Statement does nothing because the policy rate had all the impact", or along those lines. Just thought this was interesting to share, although, not sure how much of a risk it would be to disregard the monetary statement after the policy rate because there is always a chance that it can have a major impact nonetheless.
  • #11,248
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:44pm Sep 20, 2017 4:44pm
Are all of Draghi's speeches to be taken as high impact news?
  • #11,249
  • Sep 20, 2017 4:48pm Sep 20, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting irod22
Are all of Draghi's speeches to be taken as high impact news?
I would say yes. These are the comments under the FF calendar -

"Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy"
  • #11,250
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:17am Sep 21, 2017 12:17am
Quoting Nikitafen
Something of note - "When you have the BOJ policy rate followed by a monetary statement, most of the time the Monetary Statement does nothing because the policy rate had all the impact", or along those lines. Just thought this was interesting to share, although, not sure how much of a risk it would be to disregard the monetary statement after the policy rate because there is always a chance that it can have a major impact nonetheless.
Press conference in an hour or so. No doubt this will get it going. No anticipating now boys and Girls
Stop killing our Oceans, Stop using single use plastics.
  • #11,251
  • Sep 21, 2017 12:49am Sep 21, 2017 12:49am
Quoting jakdan
{quote} Press conference in an hour or so. No doubt this will get it going. No anticipating now boys and Girls
I should hope it does, everything has been pretty uneventful so far. 7 hours of constricted consolidation in anticipation of the news.
Patiently waiting.
  • #11,252
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:04am Sep 21, 2017 1:04am
guys, asking for opinions please. i have a veteran trader friend whom i taught Paradox system called me up & advised against trading eurjpy since the strengthening of USD yesterday. instead we move to usdjpy for the time being.

His reason is eurjpy will be stagnant for long. is this true or only his perception based on his 'old & corrupted' thinking before the Paradox (his words not mine)
  • #11,253
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:31am Sep 21, 2017 1:31am
Quoting irod22
Are all of Draghi's speeches to be taken as high impact news?
Draghi is the man who moves the market a lot. Problem with him and ECB is they like their unplanned speeches, specially if E/U reaches 1,20. His favorite trick is to say something completely different today than tomorrow, acts as nothing happened and claims that he was misunderstood by the market.
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,254
  • Sep 21, 2017 2:09am Sep 21, 2017 2:09am
Date: 21.09.17 8.30 EET

Daily:
ROMAR - Support
EMA – Support
PSAR - Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up prior of the MACD
Last DB Attachment - Both DB/SAR attached on top
Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom
Notes: The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend.

4 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
Notes: : Smooth crossed Purple.

2 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - DB attached on top
Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom
Notes: SAR attached on bottom, PSAR flipped down.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Notes: PSAR flipped up.

Final Notes for all charts: We are in consolidation, BB flat, market is trading in 70 pips range.

Entry:
Short: went short off upper BB H2

Rules: Market hit upper BB, PSAR is flipped down H2, trading from top ( resistance) to bottom, not from centre.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,255
  • Sep 21, 2017 9:04am Sep 21, 2017 9:04am
Quoting pedro7676
Date: 21.09.17 8.30 EET Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA – Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - Up Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up prior of the MACD Last DB Attachment - Both DB/SAR attached on top Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom Notes: The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend. 4 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Notes: : Smooth crossed Purple. 2 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - Down Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up Last DB Attachment - DB attached on top Fibo up or down...
Evaluation : I closed this trade at 133.770 with +28 pips profit 5 min before ECB news. It did not hit TP or SL because of low volatility ahead of Draghis speech.
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,256
  • Sep 21, 2017 11:32am Sep 21, 2017 11:32am
Quoting pedro7676
{quote} Evaluation : I closed this trade at 133.770 with +28 pips profit 5 min before ECB news. It did not hit TP or SL because of low volatility ahead of Draghis speech.
Now I see that I made mistake, because I traded against the ROMAR. Market was in consolidation, ranging in-between BB (70 pips range). After that, market made breakout to the north and I would be caught in wrong trade. I should have traded from bottom to top - with ROMAR trend.
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,257
  • Sep 21, 2017 9:25pm Sep 21, 2017 9:25pm
Date: 22.09.17 4.00 CEST

Daily:
ROMAR - Support
EMA – Support
PSAR - Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up prior of the MACD
Last DB Attachment - Both DB/SAR attached on top
Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom
Notes: The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend.

4 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
Notes: : The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend.

2 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
PSAR - Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Last DB Attachment - DB attached on top
Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom
Notes: DB at HH, Divergence, candle closed below EMA.

1 HR:
ROMAR - Support
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing - Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down
Notes: PSAR flipped down.

Final Notes for all charts : Daily uptrend, H2–DB at HH, divergence, candle closed below EMA. H1 – PSAR flipped down.

Entry: Short - went short off EMA H2

Rules: Purple crossed White H2, open candle below EMA H2, PSAR flipped down H1.




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,258
  • Sep 21, 2017 11:25pm Sep 21, 2017 11:25pm
Quoting pedro7676
Date: 22.09.17 4.00 CEST Daily: ROMAR - Support EMA – Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - Up Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up prior of the MACD Last DB Attachment - Both DB/SAR attached on top Fibo up or down - Fibo is up from the bottom Notes: The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend. 4 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Notes: : The 4 horsemen are in an uptrend. 2 HR: ROMAR - Support EMA - Support PSAR - Support Check List: Last MACD 0 crossing - Down Last EMA Alert Arrow - Down Last DB Attachment - DB attached on top Fibo...
Evaluation : TP was hit in a relatively short time. Purple crossed White and candle was closed bellow EMA (H2) so I could trade against ROMAR trend. Both arrows were down in right order (H2) and PSAR already flipped down (H1) so I entered short position.
Hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard. - KD
  • #11,259
  • Sep 22, 2017 1:45am Sep 22, 2017 1:45am
Date :20170922 @ 02:00 EDT / 0700 CEST

Daily :
ROMAR -Support
EMA -Support
PSAR -Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing :Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow :Up
Last DB Attachment :Top @ 134.376
Last SAR Attachment :Top @ 134.376
Fibo up or down :Red

Notes :Romar EMA and 4 Horsemen are all up. Market bumped to a bit higher top then Yesterday. DB/ SAR connected together with Divergences at top.


4 HR:
ROMAR -Support
EMA -Support
PSAR -Support

Check List:
Last DB Attachment :Top @ 134.376
Last SAR Attachment :Bottom @ 133.489
Fibo up or down :Red

Notes :Romar EMA and 4 horsemen are up. White heading for Purple Cross not crossed yet. Top BB turns flat. Romar outside trading area.


2 HR:
OPEN PRICE - 134.299
ROMAR -Support
EMA -Support
PSAR -Support

Check List:
Last MACD 0 crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment :Bottom @ 133.489
Last SAR Attachment :Bottom @ 133.489
Fibo up or down :Red

Notes :Romar and EMA still Support. Whithe and Smooth crossed Purple downwards. PSAr flipped but not yet confirmed.


1 HR :
ROMAR -Support
EMA -Resistance
PSAR – Resistance

Notes :1 Hr in consolidation. Romar Support. EMA and 4 Horsemen are Resistance


Final Notes for all three charts :Market in consolidation. Daily and H4 are up but close to a Top. H1 and H2 are in consolidation. Market went down to 133.489 where it made a bottom with DB/SAR connected on H2. That was also the 23.6% level on H4. Market retraced back up to H2 White resistance close to H2 23.6 level which acts as resistance now. Also PSAR flipped but it's not confirmed.
Market is in consolidation so can trade both ways if there are enough pips.
  • #11,260
  • Sep 22, 2017 3:04am Sep 22, 2017 3:04am
NEWS: High Impact EUR 04:00 (Draghi Speech)

Thursday Trading Plan


Daily:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.369
Last SAR Attachment - Top at 134.369
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: Daily chart up with ROMAR, EMA, and the 4 horsemen. Market at the top of the Fibo, red, overbought in the uptrend. Market imbalanced with Purple and right under the 0.0. DB/SAR on top attachment, moving from candle to candle in trend, with both divergences showing.

H4:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.369
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom at 133.369
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: H4 is now swinging up after a consolidation and EMA slider. DB/SAR on top at the 0.0 red Fibo. 4 horsemen strong in trend up and spread wide apart. Both divergences attached on top.

H2:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Last DB Attachment - Top at 134.369
Last SAR Attachment - Bottom at 133.369
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: ROMAR, EMA, and the 4 horsemen in the uptrend. Market at the top of the Fibo, red and overbought. 4 horsemen in trend up. DB/SAR attached on top with both divergences. ROMAR entering trading zone, bands wide apart.

H1:

ROMAR - Support
EMA - Support
Psar - Support

Checklist:

Last MACD 0 Crossing - Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow - Up
Fibonacci - Red

Notes: H1 in the uptrend with ROMAR, EMA, and the 4 horsemen. White sliding with Purple. MACD up. Market at the top of the Fi

Final Notes: Market in uptrend with all 4 charts up. All charts are also at the top of the Fibo. The big picture is that I should buy from support or wait for a swing change to go short from resistance. To go long I would need a slider and to go short a change of swing with EMA crossing Purple. To go long I would require at least 40 pips to the top of the Fibo and buy from an area of confluence of support.

Entry: Buy entry mid candle on the 20:00 bar after SAR attached and from an area of confluence of H4 EMA and Parabolic, H2 SAR at the 50.0 with MACD up along with the 50.0 on the H1. As soon as the candle started dropping I was scanning the charts for confluence in a concentrated area and I went long from that area.

Rules:
SAR attachment on the bottom so the next attachment is on top
In an uptrend, buy from support (the bottom)

Evaluation: I should have known that when North Korea and Trump are involved, the market will not always be stopped by a confluence of strong support, like it was last time. For this reason my 40 stop was in place and nearly hit. I believe I followed the rules and used confluence referencing different time frames. However, my mistake was risking my capital during a surprise geo-political news event where fear can always drive the market down.Winning trade, 40 pips TP were taken, yet I was 30 pip in drawdown. At the beginning of the session, I saw the market at the top of the Fibo, and I knew that there would have to be a slider to buy and a swing change to sell. Then, like I said, I was scanning the charts for a cluster of supports and found it when I pulled my trade. Overall, feel pleased about this.
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