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Price-Structure-Order flow

  • #421
  • Sep 18, 2017 11:46am Sep 18, 2017 11:46am
Hello all...I'm back...at least for awhile. You all have a very interesting discussion going on here and I don't want to interrupt it. So I will just ask if there are any nagging questions perhaps I may chime in. Until then, I really don't see anything on the markets I watch worth writing about except possibly a long on USD/CAD but I'm still looking at that with a bit of a question mark.

Until then...my new digs
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  • #422
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:47am Sep 20, 2017 9:47am
Hello all, looking through the charts yesterday I found a couple of opportunities that I have taken. Thought I would share these with you...
XTI/USD - Short
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Range trade...a fairly stable ranges looks like it has formed on the monthly chart (read balanced order flow). Inside that range, on the two day chart, we can see price has come back to the top of the range and balance (stalled) for the last 6 days. Inside this balance area I have found that buyers have kind of exhausted themselves and it does not appear at this point that any more serious buying volume looks to enter. So it is just a matter of how much volume sells (to take profit) which should induce a downward run in price.

I am in with two positions awaiting a 3rd to trigger.
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  • #423
  • Sep 20, 2017 9:53am Sep 20, 2017 9:53am
Gold (XAU/USD) Long:
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A very similar situation playing out on Gold except that the monthly chart has broken its most recent balance zone. The two day chart has now come down into the zone where the late buyers pushed price higher, and the intraday chart now appears to have exhausted the selling. This trade is currently positive, but seems a bit more "risky" in that we are also at the top of a larger monthly range and I am essentially looking for a break higher. However, given the "structure" of the monthly chart I feel this may be worth a small risk. If this trade fails I will look for longs again around the 1250 area.
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  • #424
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:30pm Sep 21, 2017 1:30pm
Quoting DonPato
Hello all...I'm back...at least for awhile. You all have a very interesting discussion going on here and I don't want to interrupt it. So I will just ask if there are any nagging questions perhaps I may chime in. Until then, I really don't see anything on the markets I watch worth writing about except possibly a long on USD/CAD but I'm still looking at that with a bit of a question mark. Until then...my new digs {image}
Love the new setup Don! Welcome back!
  • #425
  • Sep 21, 2017 1:43pm Sep 21, 2017 1:43pm
I like the Gold Long, I'd expect sellers at 1325.

Good week so far. One loser on EURAUD, wasn't a well thought out long.

Closed out a couple winners today, couple more locked in. Here's a GBPNZD trade I'm in. WK and D structure long, had two orders spanning the entry level, only one was picked up. That order is at BE, looking to add second position. I'm up 200 pips or so, give me room to lock in profits on my first position so that if my second position stops out it's a BE trade overall.
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  • #426
  • Sep 25, 2017 2:13pm Sep 25, 2017 2:13pm
Don,

You should post some of your futures trades seeing as the method is similar and you're doing that daily. May be helpful.
  • #427
  • Sep 25, 2017 3:39pm Sep 25, 2017 3:39pm
Couple EURCAD trades I've taken. Wkly structure is shortish...daily short but on a deeper retrace. Took a short at weekly area, although I think it'll make it back to the lows I took profit at where I thought daily longs may come in, and they did. Would make sense for them to drive it back up to the weekly short area, short again, at BE currently.
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  • #428
  • Sep 25, 2017 3:43pm Sep 25, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting swTrue
I like the Gold Long, I'd expect sellers at 1325. Good week so far. One loser on EURAUD, wasn't a well thought out long. Closed out a couple winners today, couple more locked in. Here's a GBPNZD trade I'm in. WK and D structure long, had two orders spanning the entry level, only one was picked up. That order is at BE, looking to add second position. I'm up 200 pips or so, give me room to lock in profits on my first position so that if my second position stops out it's a BE trade overall. {image}
Good lesson on this one. I was in for a smaller than normal position so was looking to add. Not liking the smaller position clouded judgment. If I would have been in for a normal position I would have taken profit right where the market dropped off of. Out with a small profit.
  • #429
  • Sep 26, 2017 12:48pm Sep 26, 2017 12:48pm
Quoting swTrue
Couple EURCAD trades I've taken. Wkly structure is shortish...daily short but on a deeper retrace. Took a short at weekly area, although I think it'll make it back to the lows I took profit at where I thought daily longs may come in, and they did. Would make sense for them to drive it back up to the weekly short area, short again, at BE currently. {image}
Out for 200pips on the second eurcad short. This target area is where I'd expect second shot buyers to come in for longs at this deeper retrace.
  • #430
  • Sep 27, 2017 1:31am Sep 27, 2017 1:31am
Quoting swTrue
{quote} Out for 200pips on the second eurcad short. This target area is where I'd expect second shot buyers to come in for longs at this deeper retrace.

Hi SW,

I'm "anticipating" Buyers somewhere between the two Weekly Lows.
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  • #431
  • Sep 27, 2017 9:19am Sep 27, 2017 9:19am
Quoting swTrue
Don, You should post some of your futures trades seeing as the method is similar and you're doing that daily. May be helpful.
Hello SW
Not a bad idea...but I will be honest, at times the market is moving so fast I don't have time to take a screen shot...I guess I'm not as sophisticated as I'd like to believe. However, I did take this shot after I was done. Not such a good day, but finished at break even...so no loss is better than some loss.
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You will see I use multiple time frames through out my trading. The colored candles are some that I programmed myself, depending on the volume profile under each candle. Most notably are the yellow candles which indicate a less than 1% difference between buying and selling...or balance.

I was fooled today by a balance zone that formed at the high of the day (so far) and the broke higher. I was initially short there, but stopped out, so I reversed and was stopped again. But I then got on board the short train, and got back what I lost...I'm not really fond of this kind of market...it appears now to have formed a large range, which I can exploit later, but that second high on the range, is what always fools me. My initial feeling to short was correct, but timing was off, and again, I was fooled by the break higher.
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  • #432
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:26am Sep 27, 2017 10:26am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi SW, I'm "anticipating" Buyers somewhere between the two Weekly Lows. {image}
Hey Steve, welcome!

I expect a bounce off the lows as well. I've had two nice shorts from higher up, actually had another pending short as I thought buyers may hit it one more time before betting to the lows. We may break through the lows here, you can see this level gave us a solid bounce in July, came back, weaker bounce, buyers exhausting. expect something like below...
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  • #433
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:31am Sep 27, 2017 10:31am
+70 on chfjpy, targeted opposing flow level where I expected sellers to hit it, went as expected, looked to renter where buyers should come back in, few pips shy for the reentry.
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  • #434
  • Sep 27, 2017 10:32am Sep 27, 2017 10:32am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Hello SW Not a bad idea...but I will be honest, at times the market is moving so fast I don't have time to take a screen shot...I guess I'm not as sophisticated as I'd like to believe. However, I did take this shot after I was done. Not such a good day, but finished at break even...so no loss is better than some loss. {image} You will see I use multiple time frames through out my trading. The colored candles are some that I programmed myself, depending on the volume profile under each candle. Most notably are the yellow candles which indicate...
You live to fight another day!
  • #435
  • Sep 27, 2017 4:49pm Sep 27, 2017 4:49pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi SW, I'm "anticipating" Buyers somewhere between the two Weekly Lows. {image}

EUR/CAD D1 Short Trade

The Bullish move was much faster than I anticipated creating Bullish Inefficiency.

Anticipating another move down...
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  • #436
  • Sep 27, 2017 4:59pm Sep 27, 2017 4:59pm
USD/CAD D1 Pending Limit Buy

I was anticipating Price to fall from D1/W1 Market Structure but looks like it's still cheap to Buy.
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  • #437
  • Sep 28, 2017 3:39pm Sep 28, 2017 3:39pm
Took the same short on eurCAD, and one on USDcad, EC with daily/wkly structure, UC against' daily. Took small positions, stopped on both, expect another push down from both.

NCHF and NJ longs at BE, battle of the flows, we'll see who wins out.
  • #438
  • Oct 9, 2017 12:49pm Oct 9, 2017 12:49pm
Hello all...I've been very busy of late and haven't had time to post. But I am putting that time to use on a new research project. I am currently looking at a particular pattern that (in the past) has always had me scratching my head and losing no matter which way I chose to trade.

I call it the F*** You stop. It is a particular pattern that always fools me because it fakes out both side of the market just before a reversal. It seems to appear much to often to be a coincidence and I am looking at this from the order flow perspective. Here is the pattern:
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It starts with a trend (in this case bullish). Higher highs, higher lows UNTIL, one of those higher lows is violated right were the longs who are trend following would have stops. A new move comes down to stop out those longs, then reverses away to form a new high...this is the FU stop on the longs. It is usually a fairly sharp move but moves just enough to hit those stops and then moves to form a higher high...

This move usually attracts short term sellers, who will then be stopped out as well, when the move reverses and forms a higher high. This new high will then usuually reverse quickly or balance and then drop...This is the primo place to look for short signals, and trade a reversal. Check it out and see if you find any value in this.
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  • #439
  • Oct 9, 2017 2:57pm Oct 9, 2017 2:57pm
Here is an example on today's trading in the futures market dow mini
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And another on the Monthly Chart USDX
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Interested in your thoughts
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  • #440
  • Oct 10, 2017 11:55am Oct 10, 2017 11:55am
Quoting DonPato
Hello all...I've been very busy of late and haven't had time to post. But I am putting that time to use on a new research project. I am currently looking at a particular pattern that (in the past) has always had me scratching my head and losing no matter which way I chose to trade. I call it the F*** You stop. It is a particular pattern that always fools me because it fakes out both side of the market just before a reversal. It seems to appear much to often to be a coincidence and I am looking at this from the order flow perspective. Here is the...
If you recall I introduced this "pattern" to the thread several months back, checkout post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10295524 and https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...6&d=1500654424. You'll see my thought process on it and a few examples. Here's a USDSEK trade I'm in applying this thought process.
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