Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade | Page 1580 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

Learning to trade with harmonics 11 replies

Time for Change - Pivots & Harmonics to freedom 67 replies

180 reasons to trade Harmonics and Patterns 13 replies

Group Trading based on Elliott wave and Harmonics 0 replies

Attachments: Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
Exit Attachments

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #31,581
  • Sep 14, 2017 5:13pm Sep 14, 2017 5:13pm
Wow I really needed to share this one.
In my last trade I trailed very closely because I saw "a little weakness in the bears".
Look what happend afterwards HAHA
I could go crazy over this,
but it actually makes me happy.
When I get better I will be able to catch those moves.
I was close but I am lacking confidence.
The future is bright

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 120 KB
  • #31,582
  • Sep 15, 2017 3:09am Sep 15, 2017 3:09am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Hey bartlby37 I'm not sure how those simulators work. I know you were trying to help and I appreciate it. It's just the first 20 trades of a series. We'll see if the results get better. I'm sure I can improve the results in several ways. I just keep trading, follow the rules as perfectly as possible, keep track of the results, and the sample size will grow. It will become more and more statistically relevant and representative for my trading behaviour and past and future results. But I'm still curious what your simulation will say tomorrow...
Hi Peter - from the trades you posted I got an average win of 10.93 and an average loss of 12.01 giving a RR of 1:0.91. With a 1000 Euro account and using a constant 2% of account as initial risk and a 70% win rate gives an average return over 200 trades of approx 3800 euros - all runs were profitable. As Mr Pip says this is highly hypothetical - the variance in trading is huge - Adam Grimes is worth reading on the variance in trading - reducing the % of account risked per trade tends to reduce the variance which might make life more comfortable, it also reduces the average return.

I'm interested by your position sizing - in your first post you said you planned to risk 2-3% of your account per trade but some trades have initial risk in Euros of 4 or 5 times that of others. Is there a reason for that?
  • #31,583
  • Sep 15, 2017 3:17am Sep 15, 2017 3:17am
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSH
- Price made a NSH at market open and the bulls are trying to go higher. Not many contracts looking at the size of these handles
- Harmonic did complete (short and long)

Expectation: Will wait for bears to react now. As I said before, I’ve seen a 3 harmonic completion and price only retrace to 38.2 Fib. So maybe the bulls still have it in them to take it up further. Will wait and see

Long term: NSL
- Although yesterday’s 100% retracement should mean a deep correction, the bulls decided to push price up after the 38.2 Fib. Might want to complete the harmonic from yesterday. Let’s see what the bears decide to do in that structure. Going with intraday expectations
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 150917 5m.JPG Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 150917 15m.JPG Size: 117 KB
  • #31,584
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:06am Sep 15, 2017 4:06am
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} Hi Peter - from the trades you posted I got an average win of 10.93 and an average loss of 12.01 giving a RR of 1:0.91. With a 1000 Euro account and using a constant 2% of account as initial risk and a 70% win rate gives an average return over 200 trades of approx 3800 euros - all runs were profitable. As Mr Pip says this is highly hypothetical - the variance in trading is huge - Adam Grimes is worth reading on the variance in trading - reducing the % of account risked per trade tends to reduce the variance which might make life more comfortable,...

I have no written rules for reducing risk (in Euro) in certain circumstances.
I guess I reduce it when I feel there are factors in play that reduce the probablity of a succesful trade.
For example when not seeing real strength in the direction I'm trading, but all other conditions are met.
Or when I just don't feel like risking too much because I'm not in the best mental condition for a heavy trade, then I use a risk that I can feel comfortable with so I can stay mentally stable.
Again, I don't have rules for it, it's more a subjective thing.

But you make a good point and I was also wondering if I should use the same risk (in Euro) for every trade.
If I use the same risk for every trade, then I think I would have to make it a rule to only enter the highest probablity trades (like 3/3 strength score, 3/3 entry signal...)
Now I adjust the risk when I feel it's not the highest probablility.
The only written rule I have regarding position size is that I may never exceed 20-30 Euro or 10-15 Euro when trading an ABCD against expectation. It doesn't say I CAN'T use a lower risk.
Not saying it's the best way to trade, but it's how I feel most comfortable.
Maybe I will change it in the near or far future I don't know.
  • #31,585
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:51am Sep 15, 2017 9:51am
Shorted EURJPY this afternoon
Went almost in my direction, but the a really big green bullish candle and now hanging on..
Reasons:
Projection was really good
Depth was medium ( at previous structure and long time swing )
Momentum was also pretty strong
Got a pretty decent rotation candle at my AOI.
Keep you guys updated, will see how it goes!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM5.png Size: 18 KB
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #31,586
  • Sep 15, 2017 11:41am Sep 15, 2017 11:41am
Quoting Sheeep44
Shorted EURJPY this afternoon Went almost in my direction, but the a really big green bullish candle and now hanging on.. Reasons: Projection was really good Depth was medium ( at previous structure and long time swing ) Momentum was also pretty strong Got a pretty decent rotation candle at my AOI. Keep you guys updated, will see how it goes! {image}
I'm in a similar short on USDJPY.
Let's cheer for the bears Go bears!
  • #31,587
  • Sep 15, 2017 4:10pm Sep 15, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting PeterT
{quote} I'm in a similar short on USDJPY. Let's cheer for the bears Go bears!
Both bears and bulls fell asleep.
Exited the trade before market close. +5.74 Euro
Two other trades today were BE.

Have a nice weekend!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 164 KB
  • #31,588
  • Sep 18, 2017 3:37am Sep 18, 2017 3:37am
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSH

- Price made a NSH within the first hour of business

Expectation: Would like price to come to my AOI

Long term: NSH

- Market completed the very large harmonic in the past 10 days
- Intraday and long term confluence is there so will go with the expectation
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 180917 5m.JPG Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 180917 15m.JPG Size: 105 KB
  • #31,589
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:42am Sep 18, 2017 8:42am
Hello Traders,

Happy Monday!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,590
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:44am Sep 18, 2017 8:44am
Welcome back Mr. Pip!
  • #31,591
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:50am Sep 18, 2017 8:50am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, Happy Monday!
Good Morning Mr Pip! Hope all is well with the recovery stage from the massive storm.
  • #31,592
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:52am Sep 18, 2017 8:52am
good to see you again mr pip... im also glad that you and your family are safe from the storm
  • #31,593
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:53am Sep 18, 2017 8:53am
Welcome back MR.Pip!
  • #31,594
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:54am Sep 18, 2017 8:54am
The cleanup here in Miami is extensive not its slowly getting done. All is straightened here at my properties and its back to work time.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,595
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:55am Sep 18, 2017 8:55am
I have missed a lot so let's get down to some trading and to the next live stream. When should we do it?
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,596
  • Sep 18, 2017 8:59am Sep 18, 2017 8:59am
Quoting Mr. Pip
I have missed a lot so let's get down to some trading and to the next live stream. When should we do it?
As soon as you feel you are ready to go for battle again. We are always ready here on our end to join in for the next battle together.
  • #31,597
  • Sep 18, 2017 9:01am Sep 18, 2017 9:01am
Market looking to test the highs. Lets see if it finds some sellers and then looking for longs around 270-260
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 12-17 (233 Tick) 2017_09_18.png Size: 41 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,598
  • Sep 18, 2017 9:02am Sep 18, 2017 9:02am
Quoting Mr. Pip
I have missed a lot so let's get down to some trading and to the next live stream. When should we do it?
im available any day except this wednesday
  • #31,599
  • Sep 18, 2017 9:05am Sep 18, 2017 9:05am
Lets shoot for the 29 of Sept
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,600
  • Sep 18, 2017 9:08am Sep 18, 2017 9:08am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Lets shoot for the 29 of Sept
i'm in!
45 traders viewing now