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[challenge] Show me a way to make profit with 50-53% WR!

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2017 12:16pm Aug 31, 2017 12:16pm
Quoting profitfarmer
perhaps use variable position sizes, when the W/L ratio diverge by X amount from the expected 50-53%; and move back to original position size when the difference revert to expected.
Please take a pen and paper or excel and write down such a scenario. Average diverge can be found and used for it but again make a simple example you will see its doomed to fail if not then you will have nice offer

Quoting hilmy83
{quote} go with broker with pip/volume rebates. then trade the shit out of it
Rebates +%2 do u know any broker?

Quoting MoneyZilla
I can tell you what is the major reason why most of the strategies do fail. When a grid strategy chases a direction, it faces multiple direction changes, usually higher than 2.5 flips on average (per grid level). Some grid levels do make 15-30 flips. Just generalizing. So, the issue is there are 2.5 SLs on average (at least) for one profit, whatever the RR ratio is. When the pips profit target get reached, the grid level is usually closed. That is the weakest point of each strategy... Almost nobody sees or feels that. That is why RR ratios are nothing...
So you say when we reach to tp and sl levels instead of closing it directly wait for a better price after sl / tp values get triggered as there is a expected bounce...
Take it easy.
  • #22
  • Aug 31, 2017 12:29pm Aug 31, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} Please take a pen and paper or excel and write down such a scenario. Average diverge can be found and used for it but again make a simple example you will see its doomed to fail if not then you will have nice offer {quote} Rebates +%2 do u know any broker?
wish to do, but i have some different projects at hand, and i dont feel to your job
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #23
  • Aug 31, 2017 8:46pm Aug 31, 2017 8:46pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} Rebates +%2 do u know any broker?
I'm not certain but I believe if it's a managed account then you can request and specify how much spread markup you want.
  • #24
  • Sep 1, 2017 11:15am Sep 1, 2017 11:15am
Quoting TGS
{quote} I'm not certain but I believe if it's a managed account then you can request and specify how much spread markup you want.
this rebate isnt that rebate
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #25
  • Sep 1, 2017 11:30am Sep 1, 2017 11:30am
Simply for 1/1 R/R you need more than 50% win rate to profit
atheer1
  • #26
  • Sep 12, 2017 2:18pm Sep 12, 2017 2:18pm
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?
Find a better system, 50% win rate is not far off, from a coin toss!!!

Less because of spread!!

Because your R:R is the same, the likely result will be 50% which mean you don't have a edge at all...

best of luck
  • #27
  • Sep 13, 2017 12:57am Sep 13, 2017 12:57am
Quoting josh11
{quote} Find a better system, 50% win rate is not far off, from a coin toss!!! Less because of spread!! Because your R:R is the same, the likely result will be 50% which mean you don't have a edge at all... best of luck
Thank you josh Nice to see you around.
Take it easy.
  • #28
  • Sep 13, 2017 2:38am Sep 13, 2017 2:38am
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?

I dont think you can, at 20 pips your spread is 10% of the position, the edge you are seeing is a maximum of 6%, have I missed something?
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #29
  • Edited 5:44am Sep 13, 2017 3:33am | Edited 5:44am
Yes.. Can't
The best attempt was trying trade back to the mean when the win rate goes away from 50 for such a period.... But that is failed aswell..

So the end conclusion is Spreads are most evil thing in fx.
Take it easy.
  • #30
  • Sep 13, 2017 3:45am Sep 13, 2017 3:45am
Quoting Quants
Yes.. Can't The best attempt was trying trade back to the mean when the win rate goes away from 50 for such a period.... But that is failed aswell.. So the end conclusion is Spreads are most evil thing in fx.

Look for some kind of filter, technical or otherwise that improves the win rate is my only suggestion, but I guess you would have already thought of that.
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #31
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:22am Sep 13, 2017 5:22am
Quoting Quants
Yes.. Can't The best attempt was trying trade back to the mean when the win rate goes away from 50 for such a period.... But that is failed aswell.. So the end conclusion is Spreads are most evil thing in fx.
so, you are telling that if your 50% win rate get screwed to say 30% on say a 1000 trade sample, then trading to the return toward 50% win rate is a failed attempt?
interesting...
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #32
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:26am Sep 13, 2017 5:26am
Attached Image
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #33
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:33am Sep 13, 2017 5:33am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} so, you are telling that if your 50% win rate get screwed to say 30% on say a 1000 trade sample, then trading to the return toward 50% win rate is a failed attempt? interesting...
Yes it is failed attempt... First of all It still can average %50 by Win- Loose - Win - Loose after win rate get screwed... By big Number it will averaged down and you are still end up with loosing because of spreads.
Take it easy.
  • #34
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:35am Sep 13, 2017 5:35am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} so, you are telling that if your 50% win rate get screwed to say 30% on say a 1000 trade sample, then trading to the return toward 50% win rate is a failed attempt? interesting...
It is an interesting point you make here. I have a system with a 60% win rate, maybe I should for example, stop trading if the rate goes above 65% over 25 trades or some constant value... I should test this...
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #35
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:43am Sep 13, 2017 5:43am
Quoting Expo33
{image}
You are welcome to our Asylum thread under name "mythomania"
Take it easy.
  • #36
  • Sep 13, 2017 5:46am Sep 13, 2017 5:46am
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/scienc...465423/?no-ist
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 74 KB
Take it easy.
  • #37
  • Sep 13, 2017 6:10am Sep 13, 2017 6:10am
Quoting Quants
{quote} Yes it is failed attempt... First of all It still can average %50 by Win- Loose - Win - Loose after win rate get screwed... By big Number it will averaged down and you are still end up with loosing because of spreads.
surely you can in theory always find a bigger sample where XXXX trades are meaningful part...
however, i dont believe in this.

if you have a 50-50 system, and only spread to beat, you dont need too long a reversion to be somewhat ahead.
maybe in a 1000 trades example, from 40% win rate to 42% win rate...( and forget full reversal to mean)
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #38
  • Sep 13, 2017 6:37am Sep 13, 2017 6:37am
Quoting Quants
{quote} You are welcome to our Asylum thread under name "mythomania"
Already saw that thread, another waste of server space, but thanks anyways.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #39
  • Sep 13, 2017 7:05am Sep 13, 2017 7:05am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} so, you are telling that if your 50% win rate get screwed to say 30% on say a 1000 trade sample, then trading to the return toward 50% win rate is a failed attempt? interesting...

I tested this kind of idea on my data, it doesn't work although intuitively it feels like it should, the thing is there is no correlation between the trades that have gone and what the result of the next trades will be, exactly like a coin toss, I guess I knew that really, but you got me all hot under the collar for a moment
I live entirely from the growth of my personal trading account
  • #40
  • Edited 12:13pm Sep 13, 2017 11:41am | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Already saw that thread, another waste of server space, but thanks anyways.
Haha If your all posts like the two above ) We should re consider waste
Take it easy.
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