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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #101
  • Sep 20, 2006 1:18am Sep 20, 2006 1:18am
Quoting Xerof
Fozzy,

Nice system, thanks for sharing it

I would agree with Jason - have a think about using multiple lots, even if you split your usual amount into two (ideally three) separately managed trades. Use a 40 pip, 80 pip and 'blue sky' t/p technique

Whats your experience been like on GBP running the 25 pip trailing? Given there is almost always a V shaped shakeout of at least 30 to 80 pips every day around/just after the London open, I would imagine thats the time you are taken out.


Maybe allocate some of that initial profit in a wider trailing for the second (or third) lot.....coz even when GBP goes for a canter, the retracements can be quite deep, and probably catch your trailing on the first retracement almost every time... am I right?

A quick squizz at the dailies leads me to believe some of the trades you probably had chopped out by the trailing, went on to record multi big figure results over several days, but please correct me if my hunch is wrong.....its hard enough getting into a profitable trade, even harder to stay in it until the move is at exhaustion....


Hope these ideas assist .....

regards

Xerof
Hi Xerof,

Thanks for your suggestions.

Trading with multiple lots would appear to be the way to go. Now it becomes a balancing act to work out at what levels to exit. I will start with 2 lots, exiting 1 at 40 pips and lettin the other one ride at breakeven. Again, I will have to see how it goes and what suits me better.

In regards to the GBP/USD trades I have found that few trades have been signalled. Since July I have entered only 5 trades. I am honestly not sure why this is but you are right, the GBP has wide retracements at around London opening time. If you can avoid the chop the moves can be quite substantial.

Your hunch is also right, 3 of the trades on which I was stopped out at breakeven went on to be big moves that, unfortunately, I wasn't on. At least they were free trades and I walked away with my capital intact. Very frustrating though.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #102
  • Sep 20, 2006 1:40am Sep 20, 2006 1:40am
Quoting fozzy
Hi mrkam,
I am reluctant to reveal total pips won/lost with this system as it is not relevant to anyone else but me. As a newbie trader myself, I know it can be quite tempting to change methods whenever you see someone touting that their system makes "x number" of pips each week/month/year. I found that this constant changing of systems in search of something "better" led to a steady erosion of my trading capital. I'd try one thing out and as soon as it didn't produce winnersoften enough I'd change to another system, then another, then another etc etc.... It took a while for it to sink in that it was actually me that was the problem with most methods. I'm sure that most methods posted on this forum are capable of being profitable in the right hands, yet I couldn't seem to make any of them work for me.

I also don't want anyone to turn around in a couple of months and say that I was full of BS and they didn't get the same number of pips that I did. That is not why I posted the system. I did it in the hope that some traders that are still at the "changing systems" stage can see that they are not the only ones going through it and that sometimes it pays to step back and look at simpler systems.

I will however, say again that this system works for ME. Please do not put your hard earned money into this until/unless you are comfortable with how it works and what you are trying to achieve. This system, like any other, will have winners and losers. How you manage the trades and how many pips you win/lose is up to you. I suggest that if you want to know how many pips you will get, you demo it for yourself. If it doesn't suit you, it will make no difference whatsoever how many pips I have won/lost.

You are right though, the only exit strategy I have is my stop, either at breakeven or trailing 25 pips.

Cheers

Fozzy
Good post Fozzy,

I know exactly what you're talking about here. I can relate to the 'system hopping approach' system. lol.

I still tend to do it now.

Keep posting your examples please.

Neil.
  • #103
  • Sep 20, 2006 2:07am Sep 20, 2006 2:07am
Don't know about you guys, but I'm taking some profit here ahead of the 117 figure.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #104
  • Sep 20, 2006 2:33am Sep 20, 2006 2:33am
Hi all,

A of screenshot of a current trade.

Cheers

Fozzy
Attached Image
  • #105
  • Sep 20, 2006 2:35am Sep 20, 2006 2:35am
And another
Attached Image
  • #106
  • Sep 20, 2006 2:42am Sep 20, 2006 2:42am
I took the same trade, also the same SL,
Attached Image
BJ
  • #107
  • Sep 20, 2006 8:30am Sep 20, 2006 8:30am
Brain....

What settings do you use on the Ergodic CCI? Thanks for advice.
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #108
  • Sep 20, 2006 8:33am Sep 20, 2006 8:33am
JBB..........

I trade daily using Vantage Point software as described here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=661

Recently I took a close look at fozzy's method because I think it could be very compatible with VP useage. Using the FXDD platform, I get a new "Daily" candle at 5 PM ET just in time to compare with the data compiled using VP. HTH!


Quoting JBB
Thank you BeachBum and Traderone.
BeachBum, what strategy you're using besides Fozzy's? Do you mind to share?

By the way, did someone try that LSMA indicator? In the past it seems ok, but in real time it keeps changing color as the price moves up and down.
I don't believe in indicators any more. There are no wonders out there ...
  • #109
  • Sep 20, 2006 9:41am Sep 20, 2006 9:41am
Quoting traderone
Brain....

What settings do you use on the Ergodic CCI? Thanks for advice.
the same like in tlatomi- 4,8,5,4
Hi
BJ
  • #110
  • Sep 20, 2006 2:45pm Sep 20, 2006 2:45pm
Quoting fozzy
Hi Michael,

Since the beginning of July I have made the following trades (on a mini):

EUR/USD 8 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 4 breakeven
GBP/USD 5 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/CHF 7 trades, 5 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/JPY 6 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven

26 trades over the 4 majors for 14 wins, 4 losses and 8 break even.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread, this system is very much a work in progress. I still have a lot to learn about when to move my stop/loss and when to exit. The results could be better as 3 of the breakeven trades went on to be winners. I also let my losses get too large but that is a product of not having a reliable method of setting my stops. The results aren't great but prior to starting to trade this method I was losing money. Now, at least I am in front.

Cheers

Fozzy
Why dont you use an 80% 20%. At 20 pips take 80% off the table and leave 20% on to ride a potentially bigger move. Atleast you will have made something on all the breakeven trades and still have something on the table to capitalise on a larger move.

Is that you trading the daily or 4 hourlys?
Trade what you see not what you think
  • #111
  • Sep 20, 2006 4:43pm Sep 20, 2006 4:43pm
Quoting brainjt
the same like in tlatomi- 4,8,5,4
Hi
Thanks brain... seems everybody uses slightly different ones!
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #112
  • Sep 20, 2006 7:04pm Sep 20, 2006 7:04pm
Quoting pingpong
Why dont you use an 80% 20%. At 20 pips take 80% off the table and leave 20% on to ride a potentially bigger move. Atleast you will have made something on all the breakeven trades and still have something on the table to capitalise on a larger move.

Is that you trading the daily or 4 hourlys?
Hi pingpong,

Thanks for the suggestion. I've started trying a multiple lot strategy, exiting half at 50 pips and letting the rest ride, but I am always looking at other options. Appreciate your thoughts.

I only trade daily charts. I find the indicators quite reliable on daily charts and the timeframe suits me.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #113
  • Sep 20, 2006 8:32pm Sep 20, 2006 8:32pm
Update on EUR/USD trade. Could also have opened another position this morning (AEST), however I am still in the trade from 19 Sep as my stop has not been breached.


Cheers

Fozzy
Attached Image
  • #114
  • Sep 20, 2006 11:25pm Sep 20, 2006 11:25pm
Hi all, i thought i'd share my version of the Dynamic RSI indicator that i use in my model, here is a screen shot of the indicator and some explanaitions as to what is what:

http://www.accrete.com/fx-mfbtm/RSIexample.gif

You can go ahead and add the median 20MA to get the centerline of the bollinger bands if you wish by dragging a standard MA indicator onto the RSI and setting the "Apply To" to the indicator. I use the +/-0.382 "zone" myself instead of a single median moving average as these areas will often act as S/R and i like to see a break through with momentum into this "zone". All colors, periods and moving averages are user definable.

Have fun. Use it any way you wish. I just hacked the standard Dynamic Zone RSI by adding an additional inner zone band and the signal line and dots on the RSI line. I like the dots as mentioned on the RSI line as i look for "V"s and inverted "V"s for possible reversals. Especialy when these patterns show up near the outside band area on the band side of the signal line.

Cheers, and happy trading.
Thom
  • #115
  • Sep 21, 2006 6:31am Sep 21, 2006 6:31am
Thanks for sharing!



Quoting accrete
Hi all, i thought i'd share my version of the Dynamic RSI indicator that i use in my model, here is a screen shot of the indicator and some explanaitions as to what is what:

http://www.accrete.com/fx-mfbtm/RSIexample.gif

You can go ahead and add the median 20MA to get the centerline of the bollinger bands if you wish by dragging a standard MA indicator onto the RSI and setting the "Apply To" to the indicator. I use the +/-0.382 "zone" myself instead of a single median moving average as these areas will often act as S/R and i like to see a break through with momentum into this "zone". All colors, periods and moving averages are user definable.

Have fun. Use it any way you wish. I just hacked the standard Dynamic Zone RSI by adding an additional inner zone band and the signal line and dots on the RSI line. I like the dots as mentioned on the RSI line as i look for "V"s and inverted "V"s for possible reversals. Especialy when these patterns show up near the outside band area on the band side of the signal line.

Cheers, and happy trading.
Thom
  • #116
  • Sep 21, 2006 11:45am Sep 21, 2006 11:45am
hi Fozzy,

for a few days I am subscribed to this thread so that I can keep up with this amazingly numerous posts. Your two trades (USD-JPY, EUR-USD) look pretty good, hopefully it goes on like that.
Now I will evaluate this system and try to contribute as much as possible.
Ah, and by the way, I have something you could call programming skills (also in MT-EAs). So don't hesitate if you need someone to code sth.!
  • #117
  • Sep 21, 2006 4:41pm Sep 21, 2006 4:41pm
Fozzy,


Only been demoing this strategy for a little bit now, but Have had 1 win, 1 breakeven, and have another trade still going holding a 111pip profit on it at the moment.

Thanks for your input, I will keep demoing this strategy and will put my input into this forum on anything i find or if i change my exit strategy, as my profit trade got me out for a 25 pip trail, but when i look at the trade now, I would have an extra 60 pip profit if i wasn't taken out... DAMN! ohh well keep moving on with a smile for a profit!

Cheers,

Daveo!
Ride it like you stole it! Life begins at 25 Knots!
  • #118
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:28pm Sep 21, 2006 7:28pm
hai....i made 2 trades yesterday USD/JPY and USD/CHF...
trades are on me.i made+80 pips and+65 pips...
not closing yet.should i close now or should i wait...
can somebody tell me....
i make anew trade today on GBP/JPY and seems to be on profits...
can somebody tell me either im doing the right thing or not...
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #119
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:41pm Sep 21, 2006 7:41pm
Place a trailing stop on each of these of 25 pips and let the market close you out when it is ready... Just keep moveing your trailing stop forward with new lows, do not go backward with your trailing stops



Quoting Se[V]eN
hai....i made 2 trades yesterday USD/JPY and USD/CHF...
trades are on me.i made+80 pips and+65 pips...
not closing yet.should i close now or should i wait...
can somebody tell me....
i make anew trade today on GBP/JPY and seems to be on profits...
can somebody tell me either im doing the right thing or not...
  • #120
  • Sep 21, 2006 7:58pm Sep 21, 2006 7:58pm
Quoting smjones
Place a trailing stop on each of these of 25 pips and let the market close you out when it is ready... Just keep moveing your trailing stop forward with new lows, do not go backward with your trailing stops
Hi all,

This is exactly what I do, let the market take me out when it's ready.

The following chart updates the trade on EUR/USD taken 19 Sep (AEST). It is finally making some money after a few days. Now I'll just let it ride.

Cheers

Fozzy
Attached Image
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