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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,481
  • Sep 7, 2017 3:53am Sep 7, 2017 3:53am
30682 is the top of an old double pass GB gap. While 30705 is the current highest close for GB during September. Acceptation above it is needed for any serious continuation upside.
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  • #4,482
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:00am Sep 7, 2017 4:00am
Quoting Lock
30682 is the top of an old double pass GB gap. While 30705 is the current highest close for GB during September. Acceptation above it is needed for any serious continuation upside.

Double pass GB gap filled. Now we could continue higher if we will get acceptation above 30705, maybe up to the next double pass GB gap left at 31317-31355 or, at the contrary we could bounce in case of non acceptation above yesterday GB close level 30705

In any case do not forget what I wrote yesterday* about the poor high for September left at 30815: it is very suspect as a month high.

*
Quoting Lock
Price is tagging the base of the old Pit gap down from 08/03-04 (30822-3112) It could fill this zone or retrace above 30822 rejecting this gap zone. Current high, as any exact reference tagged, is weak. I mean that current high (30822) is exactly a tag of the 08/04 Pit session high. Who buy or sell at exact references? Generally weak hands. This does not mean it cannot hold but surely it is not a strong level. Plus, we still have a poor high at the very same level.
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  • #4,483
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:03am Sep 7, 2017 4:03am
Quoting Lock
30682 is the top of an old double pass GB gap. While 30705 is the current highest close for GB during September. Acceptation above it is needed for any serious continuation upside.
Tagged at the pip: again weak environment.
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  • #4,484
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:08am Sep 7, 2017 4:08am
30705 is weak as it is a perfect tag of a daily level plus it is poor as it is a double top of 2 m30 periods.
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  • #4,485
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:27am Sep 7, 2017 4:27am
Now, period E is building inside period D. So we could be in balance. From here we could have 3 options: remain in balance for a while. Break downside as a form of liquidation, even leaving upside a poor and weak high (as happened yesterday from 30815 during pit session) or, finall,y we could rally upside continuing in our progression towards the weak and poor September high.

These 3 possibilities are given by the simple technical fact that we could be in a balance: so balance rules could apply here. But also this could evolve by the fact that the entire participation to this market is very weak (both below and above) as underlined during this entire morning.
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  • #4,486
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:36am Sep 7, 2017 4:36am
Let me be more clear about the current situation: a liquidation from here could be a correction of too long inventories. But on a major scale a serious action downside will be very improbable while a continuation upwards is clearly more logical.
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  • #4,487
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:52am Sep 7, 2017 4:52am
Quoting Lock
30705 is weak as it is a perfect tag of a daily level plus it is poor as it is a double top of 2 m30 periods.
And here we are again.
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  • #4,488
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:28am Sep 7, 2017 5:28am
18 hours ago I wrote this:

Quoting Lock
Price is tagging the base of the old Pit gap down from 08/03-04 (30822-3112) It could fill this zone or retrace above 30822 rejecting this gap zone. Current high, as any exact reference tagged, is weak. I mean that current high (30822) is exactly a tag of the 08/04 Pit session high. Who buy or sell at exact references? Generally weak hands. This does not mean it cannot hold but surely it is not a strong level. Plus, we still have a poor high at the very same level.
Then after a couple of hours I added this:

Quoting Lock
Yesterday we got a poor low at 2982. And currently we have a poor low for today pit session at 3039. So a full liquidation is possible. But it will be very strange to have an high for September both weak and poor at 30822. So even in case of liquidation I will be very doubtful about a serious action downside in these condition. Obviously I'm fully aware of the USDX situation and about the fact that a substantial rally in order to clean the multi pass gaps left upside in USDX could heavily influence cable in the...
And here we are at the very same level, just a couple of pips below 30822
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  • #4,489
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:33am Sep 7, 2017 5:33am
Quoting Lock
18 hours ago I wrote this: {quote} Then after a couple of hours I added this: {quote} And here we are at the very same level, just a couple of pips below 30822
Taken out.

Remember this level is weak and poor also for Pit session, consequently I expect (or at least I consider good odds for this possibility) pit price action above this level, at least for some time, after 15:30+1GMT (meaning after Pit open)
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  • #4,490
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:35am Sep 7, 2017 5:35am
GB profile very elongated with already 4 anomalies left downside: carry this information forward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-09-07_12-36-03_sessions.png Size: 84 KB
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  • #4,491
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:36am Sep 7, 2017 5:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out. Remember this level is weak and poor also for Pit session, consequently I expect (or at least I consider good odds for this possibility) pit price action above this level, at least for some time, after 15:30+1GMT (meaning after Pit open)
Bet you shorted
  • #4,492
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:40am Sep 7, 2017 5:40am
Quoting Trade-G
{quote} Bet you shorted
Not at all. I scaled out some at this level. I will never short against a full one timeframing higher action in H1.
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  • #4,493
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:42am Sep 7, 2017 5:42am
Price action generally goes from long to balance then to long or short and so on: it is very rare to see a V shape action, like from long to short without any meaningful balance between them. Specially if the long progression is in one time frame modality, meaning that we are in a trend upside.

Obviously this does not mean it cannot liquidate at any moment in time, for instance in case of inventories too long.
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  • #4,494
  • Sep 7, 2017 5:48am Sep 7, 2017 5:48am
Next visible level upside (in case of continuation) is clearly 31187. Structure downside left by current GB action is very poor: so watch out, specially considering upcoming news.
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  • #4,495
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:36am Sep 7, 2017 8:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out. Remember this level is weak and poor also for Pit session, consequently I expect (or at least I consider good odds for this possibility) pit price action above this level, at least for some time, after 15:30+1GMT (meaning after Pit open)

As supposed pit session opened above 30815. With a notable gap upside. It is important to evaluate the possibility to preserve this new gap or to see, instead, a filling of it.
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  • #4,496
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:37am Sep 7, 2017 8:37am
We are in a situation similar to the one we saw yesterday at pit open. The new element is that we opened inside a previous pit gap downside from 08/03-04 (up to 3112 level)
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  • #4,497
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:40am Sep 7, 2017 8:40am
One single pip above yesterday high...
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  • #4,498
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:42am Sep 7, 2017 8:42am
Remember that the last 2 pit sessions got both a poor low. So in case of liquidation we could see a substantial action downside.
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  • #4,499
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:44am Sep 7, 2017 8:44am
Quoting Lock
Remember that the last 2 pit sessions got both a poor low. So in case of liquidation we could see a substantial action downside.

Obviously acceptation below 30815 is needed for this. At the contrary, in case of non acceptation below this value, we could continue higher to 31187.
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  • #4,500
  • Sep 7, 2017 8:58am Sep 7, 2017 8:58am
Note the struggle at 30815
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