Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1087 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #21,721
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:51am Sep 5, 2017 2:51am
Back later for The Dead Zone - I may even trade one of them today ...

Trade well, folks.
  • #21,722
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:51am Sep 5, 2017 2:51am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Doesn't really matter to us, Billy. We are in-and-out before the minnows she's talking about realise they have been suckered and are going in the wrong direction. In fact, the way they move things to sucker them in is in our favour, as it gets us the short, quick moves we want. Nothing new there. The 15 min after the US Open is why The Dead Zone works. Just sayin'. Also, that guy was a right dick to Claudia earlier. I know you like to be nice but mmmmm...
she also told me about timing the move which was after the first small move and usually in the opposite direction, this normally paid for commissions/bon us. She spoke primarily of stocks/shares
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,723
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:54am Sep 5, 2017 2:54am
Oh - and AU had a tiny move North fail but if run as WZ, would have dropped the dosh for you easily on a good short, I wouldn't have been interested in a long as price was right up against a Supply Zone.

On GU, again if run WZ, then a nice short move bagged the percents. Done vanilla, it's just broke the low but as it stands just now, is still a little short of the +5.
  • #21,724
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:55am Sep 5, 2017 2:55am
Anyway, I shorted the 08-00 15 minute bar for 10% yaaaaaaaaaaay, no idea why I took 10 and not 5%,, It must be greed but I will put a stop to it.
After the low trigger it almost failed but looking at stats it would of had good odds of getting a few back, Plus the 04-00 bar high would of triggered . Now I look for tomorrow
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,725
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:57am Sep 5, 2017 2:57am
Quoting billytt
{quote} she also told me about timing the move which was after the first small move and usually in the opposite direction, this normally paid for commissions/bon us. She spoke primarily of stocks/shares
Sounds like the same things we see on The DAX and F40 for sure. That head-fake right at the open - the pause for a beat - then off it goes again, usually in the other direction. Sometimes the first move gets the +5, sometimes not - but if not, the reverse gets the job done.
  • #21,726
  • Sep 5, 2017 3:04am Sep 5, 2017 3:04am
Quoting billytt
Anyway, I shorted the 08-00 15 minute bar for 10% yaaaaaaaaaaay, no idea why I took 10 and not 5%,, It must be greed but I will put a stop to it. After the low trigger it almost failed but looking at stats it would of had good odds of getting a few back, Plus the 04-00 bar high would of triggered . Now I look for tomorrow
I shorted the 08-00 15 minute bar

Sorry, I must be thick - I don't get that. What do you mean?

Bar #1 below is the 08:15 m15 bar / candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedGBPUSDM15BillyInfoCROP_LI.jpg Size: 564 KB


Short?
I assume you mean short on the close of the m15? So on the open of bar #2?
So why short?
Out of the Supply Zone above (resistance)?
  • #21,727
  • Sep 5, 2017 3:08am Sep 5, 2017 3:08am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I shorted the 08-00 15 minute bar Sorry, I must be thick - I don't get that. What do you mean? Bar #1 below is the 08:15 m15 bar / candle. {image} Short? I assume you mean short on the close of the m15? So on the open of bar #2? So why short? Out of the Supply Zone above (resistance)?
OK - I've looked at the lower tf and I guess you're waiting for the first small head-fake - which went North for a couple or three pips - and then went in on the first shimmy South. Yes? No?
  • #21,728
  • Sep 5, 2017 3:13am Sep 5, 2017 3:13am
Anyway - thanks for drawing my attention to Cable - picked up a +5% on a bounce out of a Demand Zone!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedGBPUSDM15thanksBilly-GotScalpNorthLOL5thSept17At09.09ukCROPPED_LI.jpg Size: 104 KB


Cheers, Billy!
  • #21,729
  • Sep 5, 2017 4:00am Sep 5, 2017 4:00am
Claudia, come back, we have wine....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture+_2017-08-25-14-11-50.png Size: 293 KB


You like wine..!
Onwards and upwards...
  • #21,730
  • Sep 5, 2017 4:16am Sep 5, 2017 4:16am
If it jumps the gap, we could have some nice surfing conditions here later...

Attached Image
  • #21,731
  • Sep 5, 2017 4:21am Sep 5, 2017 4:21am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I shorted the 08-00 15 minute bar Sorry, I must be thick - I don't get that. What do you mean? Bar #1 below is the 08:15 m15 bar / candle. {image} Short? I assume you mean short on the close of the m15? So on the open of bar #2? So why short? Out of the Supply Zone above (resistance)?
Answer,,, we have a 15 minute bar... I trade off the 08-00 bar... so after 08-00 bar closes at 08-15 I wait for the break of the high or low. The Low triggered and I went short. Same thing as trading off Daily,04-00, same results but less risk...
I answer like this as I have had a couple of lurkers ask lol. It cannot get any easier. should it of failed I would gone long then get ready with a counter..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,732
  • Sep 5, 2017 4:23am Sep 5, 2017 4:23am
Quoting lemercenaire
Anyway - thanks for drawing my attention to Cable - picked up a +5% on a bounce out of a Demand Zone! {image} Cheers, Billy!
yep, its consolidating so should move.... I have done for the day. Just waiting for tomorrow.. My Lady is off to Romania next week and I am paying for it,(or actually Broker is) she doesn't know so it will be a surprise.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,733
  • Sep 5, 2017 7:03am Sep 5, 2017 7:03am
DZ possibles.

More than a few of these look like we may have missed the boat, with the moves already just happened in the last 15 mins or so - buy hey...

AU - short
UNok - short
GU - short
CJ - long
NU - long into surf
NJ - surf
UJ - long

As such, a stronger candidate may come from another galaxy in the US500 - short into surf.
  • #21,734
  • Sep 5, 2017 7:06am Sep 5, 2017 7:06am
Quoting billytt
{quote} yep, its consolidating so should move.... I have done for the day. Just waiting for tomorrow.. My Lady is off to Romania next week and I am paying for it,(or actually Broker is) she doesn't know so it will be a surprise.
I assume you mean she doesn't know you are paying for it, not that she doesn't know she's off to Romania, lol. Now that really would be a surprise
  • #21,735
  • Sep 5, 2017 7:24am Sep 5, 2017 7:24am
Billy mentioning the 8am got my stat fingers fired up.

heres something id like to share with the group!

decent sample size last 94 days to present.

could of added more distributions for the second breaks etc but got tired lol

a few shockers in there, treble fails and what not but if one stuck them out all of them came good

what is also very interesting is 20 points on the first break has higher probability than stopping dead at 5 & 10, by quiet an overwhelming majority


also i should add i imposed a two hour time limit on the market for all the trades unless its the triple+ fails. i then factored in what sticking around would do
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx 8AM STATS.xlsx   13 KB | 324 downloads
  • #21,736
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:24am Sep 5, 2017 8:24am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Sounds like the same things we see on The DAX and F40 for sure. That head-fake right at the open - the pause for a beat - then off it goes again, usually in the other direction. Sometimes the first move gets the +5, sometimes not - but if not, the reverse gets the job done.
you have a good point Lem
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,737
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:29am Sep 5, 2017 8:29am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I assume you mean she doesn't know you are paying for it, not that she doesn't know she's off to Romania, lol. Now that really would be a surprise
she is going to Romania and everything is booked, she said she would not of gone if she had met me. I will get her bank details and deposit whatever she has paid yay. Earlier today she went to post office to order holiday money and I paid for it, This was a surprise and she has no idea about me paying for holiday... I have yet to find out..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,738
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:35am Sep 5, 2017 8:35am
Quoting Piphunter00
Billy mentioning the 8am got my stat fingers fired up. heres something id like to share with the group! decent sample size last 94 days to present. could of added more distributions for the second breaks etc but got tired lol a few shockers in there, treble fails and what not but if one stuck them out all of them came good what is also very interesting is 20 points on the first break has higher probability than stopping dead at 5 & 10, by quiet an overwhelming majority also i should add i imposed a two hour time limit on the market for all the trades...
Hi Pip, thanks for the input. you are correct with the fails and that is why I am testing it,Testing but on full account. I do have stats but It looks like I can trade it knowing I can counter. Did you look at UK open or US ?
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,739
  • Sep 5, 2017 8:36am Sep 5, 2017 8:36am
even though I did not trade it, US open was a good long.My friend traded it.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #21,740
  • Sep 5, 2017 9:02am Sep 5, 2017 9:02am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Pip, thanks for the input. you are correct with the fails and that is why I am testing it,Testing but on full account. I do have stats but It looks like I can trade it knowing I can counter. Did you look at UK open or US ?
UK of course!
It may not have the first break quality of the 4am but 68% is still very decent and when you factor in the risk levels being hugely diminished cause of smaller sizes it could be worthy.

It might be worth taking a look at switching to 4am mode after an initial fail on the 8am depending on its position within that range. Lock in the small loss but dont add to chase it back on the 8am range, let it retrace into 4am territory and maybe slam a retrace back-down 4am style and free the initial 8am position

Obviously if the 8am candle is bang in the middle then its not applicable
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