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  • #321
  • Sep 3, 2017 5:58am Sep 3, 2017 5:58am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} I need to give it some thought but a couple of things to note A) The was that over shooting comment a couple of weeks ago B) There were two reports out on Friday one from Reuters and the other from Bloomberg that both suggested that Draghi is could scale back plans on QE https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...fter-jobs-miss C) Draghi has put so much effort in to getting the Eurozone on a better footing. Will reducing QE undo this. Anyway his main focus is inflation and...

I was thinking of likely outcomes/scenarios and then this thought suddenly came up in head....

In articles I've read so far, I have noticed there is no reference to the scale of QE rollback. The scale of the rollback.. is this a thing?

As in: Draqhi announces plan to rollback QE, but the scale is less than expected...
  • #322
  • Edited 1:32pm Sep 3, 2017 6:53am | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I was thinking of likely outcomes/scenarios and then this thought suddenly came up in head.... In articles I've read so far, I have noticed there is no reference to the scale of QE rollback. The scale of the rollback.. is this a thing? As in: Draqhi announces plan to rollback QE, but the scale is less than expected...
We have to guage the mood of traders and what they are expecting. (Priced in)
And then see if there is something that they have missed or if price is setting up something

Looking at the dollar really I think some if this momentum has been on tax cuts.

Plus the banks have viewed the dollar as being underpriced. It's always worthwhile seeing what the banks think.

But there is also the debt ceiling to factor in. This is due on 29 September. I understand that Trump has said that he wants the money to build the wall othertherwise the US will default.

Most importantly i can't wait for the kids to go back to school for some peace and quiet
  • #323
  • Edited 9:10am Sep 3, 2017 7:21am | Edited 9:10am
Trading sentiment should be effortless.
It's just understanding it and following it as it turns from bullish to bearish and neutral and back again.
Once you are truly in sync with a pair you never really bother with the charts.
Then you almost just get a feeling about something.

Something else is knowing when sentiment is finished.
For instance we say this on the a couple of weeks ago.
Pound traders were looking for a response from Barnier. Then after that got absorbed there was no real news except a heavily sold off pound and Yellen deciding not to sound hawkish at Jackson Hole.
The pound strongly rallied.
It's also knowing about how currencies relate to one another during certain situations risk in off etc....
Right enough crap from me
  • #324
  • Sep 3, 2017 9:38am Sep 3, 2017 9:38am
looking at the risk events.
There is a lot happening this month

A) ECB meeting
B) New Zealand elections
C) CAD cash rate
D) Debt ceiling
E) UK MPC meeting
F) US CPI figures
G) FOMC statement

I think the debt ceiling could be the best.

Let's get some decent pips in
  • #325
  • Sep 3, 2017 2:11pm Sep 3, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting Fader123
looking at the risk events. There is a lot happening this month A) ECB meeting B) New Zealand elections C) CAD cash rate D) Debt ceiling E) UK MPC meeting F) US CPI figures G) FOMC statement I think the debt ceiling could be the best. Let's get some decent pips in
Great eagle-eyed view of the most anticipated event risks this month.

I can see why the markets have their focus all of them except two

UK MPC meeting
Debt ceiling
  • #326
  • Sep 3, 2017 2:30pm Sep 3, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting Fader123
Trading sentiment should be effortless. It's just understanding it and following it as it turns from bullish to bearish and neutral and back again. Once you are truly in sync with a pair you never really bother with the charts. Then you almost just get a feeling about something. Something else is knowing when sentiment is finished. For instance we say this on the a couple of weeks ago. Pound traders were looking for a response from Barnier. Then after that got absorbed there was no real news except a heavily sold off pound and Yellen deciding...
Pure gold!

As always, it is the way you lay it out in simple straightforward real-life way... really really helpful.
  • #327
  • Sep 3, 2017 2:39pm Sep 3, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} We have to guage the mood of traders and what they are expecting. (Priced in) And then see if there is something that they have missed or if price is setting up something Looking at the dollar really I think some if this momentum has been on tax cuts. Plus the banks have viewed the dollar as being underpriced. It's always worthwhile seeing what the banks think. But there is also the debt ceiling to factor in. This is due on 29 September. I understand that Trump has said that he wants the money to build the wall othertherwise the US...
"this momentum"?
Are you referencing the upside momentum we saw this week?


I need to research this Debt ceiling stuff.
  • #328
  • Edited 3:26pm Sep 3, 2017 3:15pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} "this momentum"? Are you referencing the upside momentum we saw this week? I need to research this Debt ceiling stuff.
Yes. The thing is how long will it last
This move was in part due to Euro weakness and that Trump did not step things up against NK. There has been more talk recently on tax cuts. Banks turning more bullish on the dollar against the Euro.

The debt ceiling could be a brilliant trade. I haven't researched UJ the last time it happened but I would expect a risk off appetite in the days leading up to the event
  • #329
  • Sep 3, 2017 3:31pm Sep 3, 2017 3:31pm
Let's focus on the CAD first.
Will have look tomorrow as I have a splitting headache
  • #330
  • Sep 3, 2017 3:34pm Sep 3, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Yes. The thing is how long will it last This move was in part due to Euro weakness and that Trump did not step things up against NK. There has been more talk recently on tax cuts. Banks turning more bullish on the dollar against the Euro. The debt ceiling could be a brilliant trade. I haven't researched UJ the last time it happened but I would expect a risk off appetite in the days leading up to the event
Thanks for the clarification.
  • #331
  • Edited 10:37pm Sep 3, 2017 10:07pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting Fader123
Let's focus on the CAD first. Will have look tomorrow as I have a splitting headache

finally, I can find a place where people not just talk about technical. my brain need food too
this month, I'am more focused on EUR, GBP, and CAD.
put some limit since last week, around tuesday, leave it there and waiting for the Central Bank do their job.

ok, the CAD itself pushed down againts USD, I believe this is because some Oil release and the heating between US and NK.
so what do you think about this Looney next move ?
as you can see, looney get a big deficit in the last few months, started from April when CAD fly around 1.370, then falling sharp till last August @ 1.24.
(I don't know why I can't paste my screenshoot here)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD_TB.jpg Size: 74 KB


well, I believe this deficit come from the higher currencies value.
the good thing is, while the currencies getting stronger, unemployment rate decreased siginificantly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD_UnemRate.jpg Size: 75 KB


here we go at CAD inflation, slowing down from May, gues what makes it turning down ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 19 KB


ok, I'll talk with my friend, discussing some release this week, I'll be back again, waiting for some nice discussion here.
don't forget enjoy your coffee guys

Potatoes
Beyond The Gray Sky
  • #332
  • Sep 4, 2017 3:27am Sep 4, 2017 3:27am
Quoting potatoes
{quote} finally, I can find a place where people not just talk about technical. my brain need food too this month, I'am more focused on EUR, GBP, and CAD. put some limit since last week, around tuesday, leave it there and waiting for the Central Bank do their job. ok, the CAD itself pushed down againts USD, I believe this is because some Oil release and the heating between US and NK. so what do you think about this Looney next move ? as you can see, looney get a big deficit in the last few months, started from April when CAD fly around...
@Potatoes.
It's good to see you here.

About the CAD.. it seems to me you forgot about the impressive growth (GDP) numbers after the hike. Another reason the market feels there might be follow through this week from the BOC.

I read somewhere that if the BOC hikes, the market might be feeling that's the end for now... seeing as the BOC would've completely reversed the two cuts ("insurance" per the BOC) its unlikely they'd start pricing a third hike soon. However, if we don't get a hike now, it's an avenue for the market to buy the dips on the CAD still... as there remains a second hike to price still depending on the tone of the BOC.

Does this make sense?

NAFTA, housing market... it makes sense for the BOC to want to hold off now.
  • #333
  • Edited 5:30pm Sep 4, 2017 4:37pm | Edited 5:30pm
View from the last time
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

BOC do not want to "slam on the brakes" - they want a general easing according the Wilkins
There has been some lagged effects of excess supply in recent quarters
There is still slack in the economy

Inflation: 1.3%- big drop from April's 1.6%-
Expected to reach 2% in 1st qtr of 2018
Employment is strong
Wage growth is moderate
Exports are flat
Growth;
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70630a-eng.htm
Business expectations (30 June)
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/06/bos-summer-2017/

The interesting thing is that the business comunity expects lower inflation

"Despite strong forward-looking indicators of business activity, survey results point to only modest growth in future input and output prices. Inflation expectations edged down and are concentrated in the lower half of the Banks inflation-control range"

This is Poloz's most recent statement following the dip in CPI in May (4th July)
http://www.bnn.ca/boc-rate-hike-spec...paper-1.796006

He is clearly basing hikes based on what inflation will be in the future rather than what it is now.
"easing off the accelerator is appropriate".

The hike will happen before 1st qtr of 2018 and most probably this month

But the rhetoric is not aggressive from either Wilkins or Poloz

Looking at inflation;

• business does not expect inflation to rise- and to be on the lower end
• we have already had a drop to 1.3%
• and obviously Wikins and Poloz's tone is one of easing slowly.

But growth appears to me to be the main thing that the BOC are looking at, to see what inflation is likley to be in the future

And its doing well- especially in the services section.
Slack appears to be being absorbed

Will there be two hikes - that is the question.
Think that they will say that they are data dependant- but lets see that the statement says

But it is the tone that matters, Poloz has ackowledged the softer inflation figures - but said he is looking to see what inflation will be in 12-24 months.

I was thinking that he will be slighly more dovish (in light of recent CPI figures), but would not be surprised to see a more neutral tone.

Some of the banks are expecting a more dovish tone from Poloz.

If we get a decent pull back lets see
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Main points & Comments from latest statement:

Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending. As a result, a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed

The very strong growth of the first quarter is expected to moderate over the balance of the year, but remain above potential

Latest GDP report: (Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.1% in the second quarter, following a 0.9% gain in the first quarter. The cumulative growth in the first two quarters of the year (+2.0%) was the strongest since 2002 (+2.1%).)

Household spending will likely remain solid in the months ahead, supported by rising employment and wages, but its pace is expected to slow over the projection horizon

Latest GDP report: Overall, household final consumption expenditure advanced 1.1% in the second quarter, after increasing 1.2% the previous quarter

Business investment should also add to growth, a view supported by the most recent Business Outlook Survey.( Latest 30th June)
Latest GDP report: Business investment in non-residential structures rose 2.4% after increasing 1.0% in the first quarter.

The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019.
The output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

CPI inflation has eased in recent months and the Bank’s three measures of core inflation all remain below 2 per cent.
(Turning slowly- but still soft)

The factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary, including heightened food price competition, electricity rebates in Ontario, and changes in automobile pricing.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...70818a-eng.htm

As the effects of these relative price movements fade and excess capacity is absorbed, the Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018.

The Bank will continue to analyze short-term inflation fluctuations to determine the extent to which it remains appropriate to look through them.

Initial View

Overall you'd have to say that the economy is doing well. Will they hike, probably not. They have said before that they are going to take it steady. Also there has been no speeches from Wilkins or Poloz to prep the market. But inflation (soft) issues seem to be temporary.
I need to watch the conference tomorrow to see what else I can see (45 mins of fun!)
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/multimedi...sts-july-2017/
  • #334
  • Sep 4, 2017 6:55pm Sep 4, 2017 6:55pm
Gold and Usd research. I suspect the USD is headed down further and Gold more to the upside :

Inserted Video
  • #335
  • Sep 4, 2017 9:19pm Sep 4, 2017 9:19pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} @Potatoes. It's good to see you here. About the CAD.. it seems to me you forgot about the impressive growth (GDP) numbers after the hike. Another reason the market feels there might be follow through this week from the BOC. I read somewhere that if the BOC hikes, the market might be feeling that's the end for now... seeing as the BOC would've completely reversed the two cuts ("insurance" per the BOC) its unlikely they'd start pricing a third hike soon. However, if we don't get a hike now, it's an avenue for the market to buy the dips on...
Hi @4rXal-ghul,
Actually I don't leave GDP from my point, because that's what I want, somebody who find out if there's something missing.
yeah, I'm glad viewing your point there. From this point, loonie is too high right now, first option will be hold its rate, to watch how inflation and Trade Balance act. since unemployment significantly drop, it is good sign of economic growth. more people work, more goods are produced.

Second choice, the BOC should at least issue a policy to help its falling inflation. the decline in inflation indicates the ability of purchasing power and the production of good goods. in accordance with the number of unemployment decreased, but the value of the currency is too high to make the price of goods and services are not sold in the market.

Oil is also a concern, OPEC has announced a production cut some time ago. coupled with the uncertainty of the time required for the healing of the American rig after Harvey's storm. a bit interesting to see.

Quote
Initial View

Overall you'd have to say that the economy is doing well. Will they hike, probably not. They have said before that they are going to take it steady. Also there has been no speeches from Wilkins or Poloz to prep the market. But inflation (soft) issues seem to be temporary.
I need to watch the conference tomorrow to see what else I can see (45 mins of fun!)

well, I'll wait for this @Fader123

ps: I'm sorry if i'm late, because when you wake up, its time for me to sleep. haha
don't forget, enjoy your coffee
Beyond The Gray Sky
  • #336
  • Sep 5, 2017 1:07am Sep 5, 2017 1:07am
Seems surreal looking at cash rate statements while NK ratchets up its rhetoric.
Let's hope for peace.
  • #337
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:36am Sep 5, 2017 2:36am
Quoting Fader123
Seems surreal looking at cash rate statements while NK ratchets up its rhetoric. Let's hope for peace.
What's North Korea's end game here. It is true they are, or rather, Kim is begging for war.
I don't want WWIII.. a nuclear war!
  • #338
  • Sep 5, 2017 2:52am Sep 5, 2017 2:52am
Quoting Fader123
Seems surreal looking at cash rate statements while NK ratchets up its rhetoric. Let's hope for peace.
well, since you say that...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 64 KB

somebody just give us an answer right there. I hope, soon, market will great again

Quote
What's North Korea's end game here. It is true they are, or rather, Kim is begging for war.
I don't want WWIII.. a nuclear war!

the bad news is, our sound never reach their decission

I think this is not time for a cup off coffee.
Beyond The Gray Sky
  • #339
  • Sep 5, 2017 10:56am Sep 5, 2017 10:56am
IMO, if war does break out, the usd might gain as it is one of the traditional safe haven currencies.

However, with markets largely shrugging off N.K so quickly, it seems to me the key driver for usd is the interest rate hike. Which is looking dimmer at almost every news release.

Observing that global markets seem to be buying dips at every opportunity, it would be a high probability trade to go into emerging countries or high beta currencies.

Im still quite bullish on the euro thou! Not gonna change until ecb takes clear steps to prevent the euro from gaining!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #340
  • Edited 5:31pm Sep 5, 2017 5:01pm | Edited 5:31pm
CAD
Obviously the economy is doing well.
They are concerned about inflation not being transitory.
Regarding whether this will form part of further hikes or removal of insurance Poloz says it could be either way.
But they are bullish on the economy. We could even be ahead of July s forecast.

CADJPY is seriously sold off. This is only a day trade. Obviously lots of risk off sentiment around.

I have not fully researched historical price action on similar events. So bear with me.

We should have strength going into the event. If I get the time might be going long CADJPY into the event. Flat right before announcement.

Think there will be a dip on annoucement as Poloz wont hike. Everything depends on the statement then. Will read it. So we might get a rally after the annoucent and then might sell the news. Would do sell the news on EURCAD.
These are just day trades only.

Remenber the best times to trade is when there is a change in central bank bias.
We won't have that tomorrow.
But there should be a few pips there.
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