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The Daily Fozzy Method

JBB.........

This post confuses me. The "Daily" candle opens at 00:00 GMT which currently is 8 PM EST. What "new candles" did you see at 5 PM EST that were used to open new trades?


Quoting JBB
Took the same trades on the opening of new candles at 5pm EST.
HAGeek, where is your stops? And what is your targets if you have ones?
Quoting BeachBum
JBB.........

This post confuses me. The "Daily" candle opens at 00:00 GMT which currently is 8 PM EST. What "new candles" did you see at 5 PM EST that were used to open new trades?
Now I'm confused too. It seems that my platform (FXDD - MT4) is not on GMT. Because they have 00:00 when I have 17pm. Rigt now for instance on H1 chart I have a candle opened at 17pm platform time. Time in Montreal is 10:22.
As I know, there is no way to change time on MT4.
Quoting JBB
Now I'm confused too. It seems that my platform (FXDD - MT4) is not on GMT. Because they have 00:00 when I have 17pm. Rigt now for instance on H1 chart I have a candle opened at 17pm platform time. Time in Montreal is 10:22.
As I know, there is no way to change time on MT4.
FXDD is GMT +3

So the new bars should appear at 5PM Eastern Daylight Time I believe. IBFX for example is on GMT 0 time and the new bars appear at 8 PM EDT. It depends on Broker time.
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
Hi JBB.....

This is not necessarily a problem because many traders consider the "end" of the trading day to be when the NY markets close at 5 PM ET. So a new "Daily" candle forming at that time might, in fact, be a good thing. The strategy I use with VP software begins at 5 PM ET and so this method from fozzy might fit in nicely with what I am already doing between 5 and 6 PM ET. After all, we are looking for a cross of the RSI on the MA at the close of a daily candle and then trading at the opening of the next daily candle. This is something I'll be looking at closely. Thanks for the reply.


Quoting JBB
Now I'm confused too. It seems that my platform (FXDD - MT4) is not on GMT. Because they have 00:00 when I have 17pm. Rigt now for instance on H1 chart I have a candle opened at 17pm platform time. Time in Montreal is 10:22.
As I know, there is no way to change time on MT4.
Thank you BeachBum and Traderone.
BeachBum, what strategy you're using besides Fozzy's? Do you mind to share?

By the way, did someone try that LSMA indicator? In the past it seems ok, but in real time it keeps changing color as the price moves up and down.
I don't believe in indicators any more. There are no wonders out there ...
Is anyone still short usdjpy from yesterdays 117.91 open?

I have stop at 117.80 right now. What targets are you using?
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
Fozzy,

can you please post your trading log for the past 3 months............just want to see win/lose ratio

Thanks.
Quoting fxvision
Is anyone still short usdjpy from yesterdays 117.91 open?

I have stop at 117.80 right now. What targets are you using?
Hi fxvision,

I'm in usdjpy as well but not at yesterdays open. I entered this morning at 117.68. The cross occurred yesterday and I entered at this mornings open. I try not to pre-empt the cross as it is sometimes not reliable. It looks to me like you may have got in early. Having said that, if it works for you then that's great.
Good luck with your trade. Hope it continues to head your way.

Cheers,

Fozzy
Attached Image
Quoting kenari05
have u tried this on H1 chart? i tried it with EU, made 60pips...i sold EU at new bar open when RSI cross MA and at the same time LSMA turns red...
Now I want to appologize to Fozzy for interfering with his extremely interesting and helpful thread, and at the same time thank you so much for sharing your method. Sometimes I put my 2 pennies where they don't belong, then I felt obligated to answer questions about my post.
So here is what do I know by examining the code of LSMA indicator:

Most SHI indicators change colors, or dots or whatever they are supposed to do. I think that's inherited feature, because they rely more on shift values than other indicators (SHI - for shift). So whoever use it, don't blame me, I did not create it, I am just using it. The careful approach with LSMA would be to wait until the bar closes. There are 3 external inputs with this indicator: R is period, default is 14, Draw4HowLong is the bar count, which could be set to 500 (it's enough) and type 1 means that the Highest price of the period is taken into account for calculations, 2 means the Lowest of the period, and 3 means the Close of the period is taken into account. One might think, that depending on the trend, one might want to experiment with those values also with the length of the period. It's up to you.

Once again, thank you Fozzy for sharing your method. You don't imagine how helpful it is to me. Until your method I always used to trade smaller time frames, begining from H4 and down. It put too much pressure on me, eating up all my free and sleep time. I will check your method very carefully, - it might give me a free time between the trades - the only thing that I never have too much in my life. Thanks.
  • Post #90
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  • Edited at 9:23pm Sep 19, 2006 8:52pm | Edited at 9:23pm
This is when I entered to, but I am in at 117.64. Must be difference in feeds. BTW... Great method... Fozzy, very elegant.
scott

BTW, If it is alright, Here is a Template that looks just like Fozzy's If not I will remove the attachement


Quoting fozzy
Hi fxvision,

I'm in usdjpy as well but not at yesterdays open. I entered this morning at 117.68. The cross occurred yesterday and I entered at this mornings open. I try not to pre-empt the cross as it is sometimes not reliable. It looks to me like you may have got in early. Having said that, if it works for you then that's great.
Good luck with your trade. Hope it continues to head your way.

Cheers,

Fozzy
Attached File
File Type: zip Fozzy 2.zip   < 1 KB | 1,784 download
Good to here from you Fossy. Sounds like I'm on the same page with you.

I entered at 117.60. 6:00ish PM EST. What's your stop/loss and profit target?
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Quoting jarroo
Good to here from you Fossy. Sounds like I'm on the same page with you.

I entered at 117.60. 6:00ish PM EST. What's your stop/loss and profit target?
Hi jarroo,
So far this trade looks OK, glad to hear your in too. My inital stop/loss is the high of the previous bar so for this trade it was 118.11. Now the trade has moved >40 pips my stop/loss is at breakeven. If it gets as far as 65 pips I will trail the stop 25 pips. If it doesn't get as far as 65 pips then even in the worst case scenario it will be a free trade. Let's hope it continues.

Cheers

Fozzy
Quoting fozzy
Stop loss is the low/high of the previous bar. I move S/L to break even if the price moves greater than 40 pips in my direction. After the initial 40 pip move I use a trailing stop for exits (25 pips).
Sorry I forgot.

Jim

Thanks for the info Again
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
Quoting Michaelw
Fozzy,

can you please post your trading log for the past 3 months............just want to see win/lose ratio

Thanks.
Hi Michael,

Since the beginning of July I have made the following trades (on a mini):

EUR/USD 8 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 4 breakeven
GBP/USD 5 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/CHF 7 trades, 5 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/JPY 6 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven

26 trades over the 4 majors for 14 wins, 4 losses and 8 break even.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread, this system is very much a work in progress. I still have a lot to learn about when to move my stop/loss and when to exit. The results could be better as 3 of the breakeven trades went on to be winners. I also let my losses get too large but that is a product of not having a reliable method of setting my stops. The results aren't great but prior to starting to trade this method I was losing money. Now, at least I am in front.

Cheers

Fozzy
Quoting fozzy
Hi Michael,

Since the beginning of July I have made the following trades (on a mini):

EUR/USD 8 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 4 breakeven
GBP/USD 5 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/CHF 7 trades, 5 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven
USD/JPY 6 trades, 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 breakeven

26 trades over the 4 majors for 14 wins, 4 losses and 8 break even.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread, this system is very much a work in progress. I still have a lot to learn about when to move my stop/loss and when to exit. The results could be better as 3 of the breakeven trades went on to be winners. I also let my losses get too large but that is a product of not having a reliable method of setting my stops. The results aren't great but prior to starting to trade this method I was losing money. Now, at least I am in front.

Cheers

Fozzy
So in order for you to breakeven, that means you hit 40 pips for your stop loss to be moved to breakeven, correct?

Had you started with 2 lots, sold one at 40 and then let the other go to breakeven or trailing, you would never have had any breakeven trades.

Your trade success would have been:

EUR/USD 8 trades, 7 wins, 1 loss
GBP/USD 5 trades, 4 wins, 1 loss
USD/CHF 7 trades, 6 wins, 1 loss
USD/JPY 6 trades, 5 wins, 1 loss

22 wins, 4 losses. Thats what, an 85% win rate?

Thats not bad at all. I'd really suggest buying in multiple lots. That would make an enormous difference.

Jason
Yes, I see now I was a bit fast on that one. My target is 116.70 and my current stop is 117.45. The profit target is projected using the mouteki trendline method but 117 area could also be a good place to take profits. +46 pips locked in so far. We'll see how it goes today.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
Quoting jlowder
So in order for you to breakeven, that means you hit 40 pips for your stop loss to be moved to breakeven, correct?

Jason
Hi Jason,

Yes that's right. I hit 40 pips, moved my stop to breakeven, only for it to reverse and take out my stop. As I said, three of the trades then went on to go the way my system was telling me they would, but without me in the trade. I think the multiple lots is the way to go too and I will focus on that for a while.

Cheers

Fozzy
Maybe total pips won/lost? Helps in the analysis of the system... I take it your sole exit strategy is your stop loss, either at B/E or the 25p trailing?

Like the others here, THANKS for your honest and open info about what you are doing... it's a real help to us all....
Fozzy,

Nice system, thanks for sharing it

I would agree with Jason - have a think about using multiple lots, even if you split your usual amount into two (ideally three) separately managed trades. Use a 40 pip, 80 pip and 'blue sky' t/p technique

Whats your experience been like on GBP running the 25 pip trailing? Given there is almost always a V shaped shakeout of at least 30 to 80 pips every day around/just after the London open, I would imagine thats the time you are taken out.


Maybe allocate some of that initial profit in a wider trailing for the second (or third) lot.....coz even when GBP goes for a canter, the retracements can be quite deep, and probably catch your trailing on the first retracement almost every time... am I right?

A quick squizz at the dailies leads me to believe some of the trades you probably had chopped out by the trailing, went on to record multi big figure results over several days, but please correct me if my hunch is wrong.....its hard enough getting into a profitable trade, even harder to stay in it until the move is at exhaustion....


Hope these ideas assist .....

regards

Xerof
Quoting mrkam
Maybe total pips won/lost? Helps in the analysis of the system... I take it your sole exit strategy is your stop loss, either at B/E or the 25p trailing?

Like the others here, THANKS for your honest and open info about what you are doing... it's a real help to us all....
Hi mrkam,
I am reluctant to reveal total pips won/lost with this system as it is not relevant to anyone else but me. As a newbie trader myself, I know it can be quite tempting to change methods whenever you see someone touting that their system makes "x number" of pips each week/month/year. I found that this constant changing of systems in search of something "better" led to a steady erosion of my trading capital. I'd try one thing out and as soon as it didn't produce winnersoften enough I'd change to another system, then another, then another etc etc.... It took a while for it to sink in that it was actually me that was the problem with most methods. I'm sure that most methods posted on this forum are capable of being profitable in the right hands, yet I couldn't seem to make any of them work for me.

I also don't want anyone to turn around in a couple of months and say that I was full of BS and they didn't get the same number of pips that I did. That is not why I posted the system. I did it in the hope that some traders that are still at the "changing systems" stage can see that they are not the only ones going through it and that sometimes it pays to step back and look at simpler systems.

I will however, say again that this system works for ME. Please do not put your hard earned money into this until/unless you are comfortable with how it works and what you are trying to achieve. This system, like any other, will have winners and losers. How you manage the trades and how many pips you win/lose is up to you. I suggest that if you want to know how many pips you will get, you demo it for yourself. If it doesn't suit you, it will make no difference whatsoever how many pips I have won/lost.

You are right though, the only exit strategy I have is my stop, either at breakeven or trailing 25 pips.

Cheers

Fozzy
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