[challenge] Show me a way to make profit with 50-53% WR! | Forex Factory

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Attachments: [challenge] Show me a way to make profit with 50-53% WR!
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[challenge] Show me a way to make profit with 50-53% WR!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 10:57pm Aug 30, 2017 10:43pm | Edited 10:57pm
It is a very simple question..
Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade

50.000 Trades will be opened

Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose


1:1 RR = 20 pip

TP = 20 PIP
SL = 20 PIP

Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER

Win = 18 PIP
Loose = 22 PIP

Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser )

26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN
24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE

How can you beat this ?
Take it easy.
  • #2
  • Aug 30, 2017 11:05pm Aug 30, 2017 11:05pm
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?
You find an edge larger than the disadvantage provided by the spread
  • #3
  • Aug 30, 2017 11:11pm Aug 30, 2017 11:11pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} You find an edge larger than the disadvantage provided by the spread
Couldn't have made a better answer!
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #4
  • Aug 30, 2017 11:16pm Aug 30, 2017 11:16pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} You find an edge larger than the disadvantage provided by the spread
Edge is there... After 50k trades it tends to create more winner always but cant beat the spread if trades taken without MM.. It can changed to 500 trade.. Only edge you know at the end there will be more winners than loosers.. Some lot tricks or waiting to have abnormal win rate streaks are one of the rough ideas
Take it easy.
  • #5
  • Aug 31, 2017 1:28am Aug 31, 2017 1:28am
Quoting Quants
{quote} Edge is there... After 50k trades it tends to create more winner always but cant beat the spread if trades taken without MM.. It can changed to 500 trade.. Only edge you know at the end there will be more winners than loosers.. Some lot tricks or waiting to have abnormal win rate streaks are one of the rough ideas
what you described is not an edge
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #6
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:08am Aug 31, 2017 2:08am
Quoting Quants
How can you beat this ?
You can't. It is a crappy system.

Spread is like the 0 on the roulette table. Red and black pays 1 to 1, but you can't play them forever, because when the 0 comes, you lose anyway.

But if you wanted to prove, that the spread is causing most people to not be able to beat the market, then it was a bad attempt at it. There are edges which have much higher, positive expectancy.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #7
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:09am Aug 31, 2017 2:09am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} what you described is not an edge
There is a system that if you trade it, it will keep crossing %50 wr..
Take it easy.
  • #8
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:12am Aug 31, 2017 2:12am
Quoting Darastonius
{quote} You can't. It is a crappy system. Spread is like the 0 on the roulette table. Red and black pays 1 to 1, but you can't play them forever, because when the 0 comes, you lose anyway. But if you wanted to prove, that the spread is causing most people to not be able to beat the market, then it was a bad attempt at it. There are edges which have much higher, positive expectancy.
What if you know there are win and loose streaks.. Still cant beat the %52wr because of spreads...?
Take it easy.
  • #9
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:30am Aug 31, 2017 2:30am
Subs.
Thanks and regards.
  • #10
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:31am Aug 31, 2017 2:31am
Subs. Thanks and
Regards
  • #11
  • Aug 31, 2017 2:43am Aug 31, 2017 2:43am
sophism = an argument using fallacious logic

If TP = 20 before spread and SL = 20 before spread then your R:R is not 1 as stated in the first post.
It is R = 18/22 ~ 0.8182

The expectance of the system is then, at most, E = 0.53 x (1 + 18/22) - 1 ~ -0.0364

This is a losing system. No trick or MM can turn a loser into a winner.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #12
  • Aug 31, 2017 5:20am Aug 31, 2017 5:20am
its easy with a non-fifo account

Open both long and short at same price then wait for market to take direction until it reverses again - close out winning leg and let the losing leg loss reduce by an amount larger than the combined spread.

.... now you have a 50%WR with profits>losses
  • #13
  • Aug 31, 2017 6:03am Aug 31, 2017 6:03am
Finding an edge is not as hard as people try to make it. I am not saying it is easy, but people definitely over-complicate it. People are more focused on being right than being profitable. Win rate doesn't matter. Math is hard. Look if you can't do basic math, you are going to have a tough time being a trader.
  • #14
  • Aug 31, 2017 6:20am Aug 31, 2017 6:20am
Quoting Lifestudent3
its easy with a non-fifo account Open both long and short at same price then wait for market to take direction until it reverses again - close out winning leg and let the losing leg loss reduce by an amount larger than the combined spread. .... now you have a 50%WR with profits>losses
Come on this has been explained to the death. 1 long + 1 short = twice the fees to not trade.
What is the difference with simply opening a position at the time you'd close the "winning" trade? Nothing except you may have paid swaps for nothing.
This so-called winning leg won nothing because it is exactly compensated by the losing one. If you're so sure the loser will reduce you could simply open a trade at this very time in its direction. And if you're right said 53% of the time to catch 18 pips of reduction without losing 22 pips of continuation.... you're just back to square 1.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #15
  • Aug 31, 2017 6:32am Aug 31, 2017 6:32am
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?
Its simple . Find a system with the same win rate(53%) and RR of 1:2, then you are good to go.
  • #16
  • Aug 31, 2017 6:43am Aug 31, 2017 6:43am
perhaps use variable position sizes, when the W/L ratio diverge by X amount from the expected 50-53%; and move back to original position size when the difference revert to expected.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #17
  • Aug 31, 2017 7:26am Aug 31, 2017 7:26am
Quoting Sis.yphus
You find an edge larger than the disadvantage provided by the spread

This.

Your expectancy isn't enough to cover your dealing costs and variability, so the parameters you've outlined are not viable.
  • #18
  • Aug 31, 2017 8:20am Aug 31, 2017 8:20am
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?
go with broker with pip/volume rebates. then trade the shit out of it
  • #19
  • Aug 31, 2017 9:14am Aug 31, 2017 9:14am
I can tell you what is the major reason why most of the strategies do fail. When a grid strategy chases a direction, it faces multiple direction changes, usually higher than 2.5 flips on average (per grid level). Some grid levels do make 15-30 flips. Just generalizing.

So, the issue is there are 2.5 SLs on average (at least) for one profit, whatever the RR ratio is. When the pips profit target get reached, the grid level is usually closed. That is the weakest point of each strategy... Almost nobody sees or feels that.

That is why RR ratios are nothing but horse shits...

The market makers (MMs) never get tired or stop bouncing the rate around, while we, the tiny little traders, once we get our pips prize - we get out of the market immediately...

What will happen if we behave likewise (like the MMs)?

I can tell you what will happen, the returns will increase, dramatically...

Will not enter into any discussions on that matter. So, please do not bother to argue with me, cause I do not care what all the traders on this Earth do think anyway...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #20
  • Aug 31, 2017 11:22am Aug 31, 2017 11:22am
Quoting Quants
It is a very simple question.. Spread Fixed = 2 Pips. Per trade 50.000 Trades will be opened Each trade after gets opened have %50 to %53 probability To win or Loose 1:1 RR = 20 pip TP = 20 PIP SL = 20 PIP Spread turns TO WIN AND LOOSER Win = 18 PIP Loose = 22 PIP Consecutive Wins , Looses UNKNOWN ! ( But you can make a scenario according to max consec win and looser ) 26.000 Winners = 468.000 PIP WIN 24.000 Loosers = -528.000 PIP LOOSE How can you beat this ?
Best answer is, do not trade with this system. Or, trade with money you can afford to lose because you will.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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