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AUD/USD

  • #102,701
  • Aug 29, 2017 2:59pm Aug 29, 2017 2:59pm
Every time I move my stop to break even I cost myself money. How many times does it take before one learns their lesson?
  • #102,702
  • Aug 29, 2017 3:11pm Aug 29, 2017 3:11pm
Quoting sdcasper
Every time I move my stop to break even I cost myself money. How many times does it take before one learns their lesson?
It may be helpful to avoid trading sub-optimal markets, e.g. markets with ranging or sideways price action.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #102,703
  • Aug 29, 2017 3:17pm Aug 29, 2017 3:17pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} It may be helpful to avoid sub-optimal markets, e.g. ranging or sideways price action. Trade safe and prosper. KP
i moved stop to break even so i cannot lose money, or take some profit. price moves in my direction but it still has to come back and reset before it continues. i get knocked out in the reset. i need to stick with my trade plan, leave stop alone, and understand the risk i'm willing to accept in a loss.

i said in my earlier post price needs to break daily pivot...oh well, lesson learned again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.png Size: 74 KB
  • #102,704
  • Aug 29, 2017 3:52pm Aug 29, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting sdcasper
{quote} i moved stop to break even so i cannot lose money, or take some profit. price moves in my direction but it still has to come back and reset before it continues. i get knocked out in the reset. i need to stick with my trade plan, leave stop alone, and understand the risk i'm willing to accept in a loss. i said in my earlier post price needs to break daily pivot...oh well, lesson learned again. {image}
Good that you at least broke even. Here's what I see using your time frame, 30M. See attached M30 chart.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Technical_Update_M30_29th_August,_2017.png Size: 31 KB


Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #102,705
  • Aug 29, 2017 3:53pm Aug 29, 2017 3:53pm
Quoting sdcasper
{quote} i moved stop to break even so i cannot lose money, or take some profit. price moves in my direction but it still has to come back and reset before it continues. i get knocked out in the reset. i need to stick with my trade plan, leave stop alone, and understand the risk i'm willing to accept in a loss. i said in my earlier post price needs to break daily pivot...oh well, lesson learned again. {image}
not really get you, are you selling or buying? if your stop in BE you shouldnt lose or gain money, dont you?
i usually reluctant to open swing position against au and nu, because they tend as slow moving currency and the swap quite expensive especially for au. i only plan for intraday trading or scalping and with some news or rumor the profit you have build for days can be eaten quickly.

if you move SL to BE, add some pips, +3 / 5 pips so you get small profit and if possible try to use EA to manage your break even like MPTM / Ronz auto SL TP but your mt4 need to be on all the times.
making money is easy in forex, losing money is even easier...
  • #102,706
  • Aug 29, 2017 7:22pm Aug 29, 2017 7:22pm
I was short at yellow arrow. I have to learn to be more patient and have a better entry. When I enter price just consolidates up and down only to stop me out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.png Size: 74 KB
  • #102,707
  • Aug 29, 2017 7:35pm Aug 29, 2017 7:35pm
Upcoming news having any impact on price?
  • #102,708
  • Aug 29, 2017 8:22pm Aug 29, 2017 8:22pm
Quoting Violenteer
{quote} Why they don't just take him out of the equation completely, I will never know. The world isn't big enough for the egos of Trump and Kim together, and Trump's got more nukes. Approximately 7200 more.
Shortish version because China are protector for NK as they don't want US allies so close to Chinese territory if they can help it. Hopefully even Trump is not dumb enough to pick a fight with NK that would bring China into defend them. I have wondered if Trump is happy to provoke Kim into attacking Guam or similar as if he strikes first China have (I think) said they won't back Kim.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #102,709
  • Aug 29, 2017 9:05pm Aug 29, 2017 9:05pm
Is it stopping at 0.8000, or it will go up?
  • #102,710
  • Aug 29, 2017 9:48pm Aug 29, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting Dr.House
Is it stopping at 0.8000, or it will go up?
Most likely above .800.

To around .8030- .8060 before going down.
  • #102,711
  • Aug 30, 2017 1:34am Aug 30, 2017 1:34am
I still see it as ranging, just sell from R and buy from S, clear break out i will follow either direction.
making money is easy in forex, losing money is even easier...
  • #102,712
  • Aug 30, 2017 2:20am Aug 30, 2017 2:20am
I have a big sell at 0.78600, and I don't know what to do now. I was hedging for a bit, but when it is ranging like that it's very hard to keep a hedge. I hope that soon it can go to 0.78200-300
What do you guys think?
  • #102,713
  • Aug 30, 2017 2:44am Aug 30, 2017 2:44am
Quoting Dr.House
I have a big sell at 0.78600, and I don't know what to do now. I was hedging for a bit, but when it is ranging like that it's very hard to keep a hedge. I hope that soon it can go to 0.78200-300 What do you guys think?
Some will say hold. Some will say cut your losses. Some will be right. Some will be wrong. It depends on your account tolerance for carrying a loss and you longer term view of the instrument.
  • #102,714
  • Aug 30, 2017 2:53am Aug 30, 2017 2:53am
Quoting Dr.House
I have a big sell at 0.78600, and I don't know what to do now. I was hedging for a bit, but when it is ranging like that it's very hard to keep a hedge. I hope that soon it can go to 0.78200-300 What do you guys think?
Difficult to say.... that is like 100 pips below from current level and for AU 100 pips is very very far. My SL on AU usually 20 or max 30 pips, i can say when price move 20 pips against my position i am already 65% wrong.

More or less you will have 4 options:
1. Keep hedging and hoping price will be back to 0.7860 area. Unfortunately hoping and praying doesn't to be working, at least for me.
2. Partially cut loss on your floating loss position, reduce the position when you think the price is low enough, let say you have 1 lot, you closed 0.3 or 0.5 lot from your trade and still hoping price will coming back.
3. Cut all of your lost now :-(.
4. Try to make some profitable trades, when the trade make profit, close the profitable trade and also close partially of your floating loss trade. example, you have -$100 from previous trade, you put another trade and manage to have profit $20, calculate the lot from your floating loss trade so you can close partially with -$20. now you will have -$80, and continue so on.

Hope you can think something wisely on the way out... dont give up man.
making money is easy in forex, losing money is even easier...
  • #102,715
  • Aug 30, 2017 3:06am Aug 30, 2017 3:06am
Quoting Dr.House
I have a big sell at 0.78600, and I don't know what to do now. I was hedging for a bit, but when it is ranging like that it's very hard to keep a hedge. I hope that soon it can go to 0.78200-300 What do you guys think?
If goes substantially below 7960 then I think you breath a sigh of relief, well, it would at least buy you time to make up your mind.
  • #102,716
  • Aug 30, 2017 3:14am Aug 30, 2017 3:14am
I usually never close a position, I simply hedge it and I always get out of trouble. Sometimes it takes months, but you have to be patient. The problem now is that I cannot watch the market for a long time, because of my work. So I am hedging now and leaving SL on +, and TP where I think it might turn around, but for now I have no luck with turning it around.
If today the NFP is bad and Oil Inventories are good for the oil, this will bring me serious troubles, which might wipeout my account.
  • #102,717
  • Aug 30, 2017 3:24am Aug 30, 2017 3:24am
Quoting Dr.House
I usually never close a position, I simply hedge it and I always get out of trouble. Sometimes it takes months, but you have to be patient. The problem now is that I cannot watch the market for a long time, because of my work. So I am hedging now and leaving SL on +, and TP where I think it might turn around, but for now I have no luck with turning it around. If today the NFP is bad and Oil Inventories are good for the oil, this will bring me serious troubles, which might wipeout my account.
Then you have two choices. Simple. Cut you losses. Or gamble on the data you need. I think oil inventories will be down with the cyclone, but perhaps that hasnt had time to percolate into the numbers.
  • #102,718
  • Aug 30, 2017 3:44am Aug 30, 2017 3:44am
Oil will go up for sure, but I guess NFP will also make the US dollar very volatile
  • #102,719
  • Aug 30, 2017 3:52am Aug 30, 2017 3:52am
Dr. House

let me ask you, how come you do not know which way the market is moving? Because if you look at a 4hr TF chart, you can see that the current Bar is a indecision Bar. Meaning, there is a lower high and a higher Low. (No decision either way.) On the weekly chart you have a Green Bar meaning moving up. Now, if you want to trade short term (scalping) you would of course wait until you have a break out. Either up or down. For longer term you would stay in the market until you hit your profit level. Of course you use a Stop loss pending on your preference.
  • #102,720
  • Aug 30, 2017 4:12am Aug 30, 2017 4:12am
Quoting sunnyfarm
Dr. House let me ask you, how come you do not know which way the market is moving? Because if you look at a 4hr TF chart, you can see that the current Bar is a indecision Bar. Meaning, there is a lower high and a higher Low. (No decision either way.) On the weekly chart you have a Green Bar meaning moving up. Now, if you want to trade short term (scalping) you would of course wait until you have a break out. Either up or down. For longer term you would stay in the market until you hit your profit level. Of course you use a Stop loss pending on your...
First of all thank you for this 101 trading lesson. Second, I never said that I don't know which way the market is moving, until now.
Now I can say that if there is anyone who 100% knows where the market is moving, he is not writing in this or any other forum. I just asked for a simple opinion of where the price might be heading.
Other than that, everyone has his own idea of trading. Mine is without SL, or a very limited use of one and only when on + side of the trade.
Good luck to all traders
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