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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #31,161
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:42am Aug 25, 2017 7:42am
out at +40 next
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,162
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:45am Aug 25, 2017 7:45am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} I want you to see this because it lets you know that this is what you all are working towards and where I'm trying to get you all. Dig in and get it done. Nothing is impossible and only you can make it happen for yourself. How bad you you want to succeed? Well then your work ethic has to be harder then your will to succeed.
Thank you for showing. To be honest, I do not understand your trade. You are trade "long" towards the golden zone of the huge down swing. Currently we have a retest of the 61.8 Fib. I would expect a restest of the lows. Hence, I would not take a long in this area (the traded area did not correct deep after the expectation failure). I took a short at the top of the re-test and got 15 points (I did not want to interfere your trade up).
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  • #31,163
  • Aug 25, 2017 7:50am Aug 25, 2017 7:50am
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Thank you for showing. To be honest, I do not understand your trade. You are trade "long" towards the golden zone of the huge down swing. Currently we have a retest of the 61.8 Fib. I would expect a restest of the lows. Hence, I would not take a long in this area (the traded area did not correct deep after the expectation failure). I took a short at the top of the re-test and got 15 points (I did not want to interfere your trade up). {image}
Here is what I saw
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (1597 Tick) 2017_08_25.png Size: 82 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,164
  • Edited 8:20am Aug 25, 2017 8:03am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Here is what I saw {image}
I understand what you mean. I kept in mind, that we should wait for a deep correction (50 to 61 Fib; not 38) after the expectation failure to go long.

If I would not have seen you trade, I would have looked for a short entry (e.g. at the retest level) whilst expecting a deep correction (TP would arround 21700) or even a restest of the lows.
  • #31,165
  • Aug 25, 2017 8:56am Aug 25, 2017 8:56am
Mr. Pip,

Actually i would like to thank you for your valuable information and thread.
Actually i am new to harmonic , and i have just read first page of this thread.

I have one simple question , If possible, i need your detailed reply/answer to it :

How do you choose a certain or a specific "XA" ? What makes you sure about that you correctly selected XA ? what are the reasons that make you sure that you selected the right XA ?

Have a nice day, Waiting your reply, thank you in advance.
  • #31,166
  • Aug 25, 2017 10:37am Aug 25, 2017 10:37am
dont you feel harmonic are another rsi levels in different time frames? how is it
pop pop popping
  • #31,167
  • Aug 25, 2017 1:29pm Aug 25, 2017 1:29pm
Quoting Kk40
dont you feel harmonic are another rsi levels in different time frames? how is it
Hello Kk40 I don't really understand your comment. Could you expand more on it please?
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,168
  • Aug 25, 2017 2:09pm Aug 25, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting simba2000
Mr. Pip, Actually i would like to thank you for your valuable information and thread. Actually i am new to harmonic , and i have just read first page of this thread. I have one simple question , If possible, i need your detailed reply/answer to it : How do you choose a certain or a specific "XA" ? What makes you sure about that you correctly selected XA ? what are the reasons that make you sure that you selected the right XA ? Have a nice day, Waiting your reply, thank you in advance.
Thank you for your post and interest in my thread, it looks like you have more then one question LOL. Let's get into them:

Quote
How do you choose a certain or a specific "XA" ?

The XA leg is also known as the anchor leg to the advanced Harmonic Patterns developed by Scott Carney. I'm sure his explanation would certainly add much more value then mine but this is my take one it.

The XA occurs off of a clear high or low on a price chart. This means that if you were to ask 100 people if this is the high or low that all would agree. I will show this with a chart for everyone's benefit.

Quote
What makes you sure about that you correctly selected XA ?

Well, certainty is not something the markets offer routinely but working off of clear highs and lows offer you higher probability then not. As price action builds to the right and more information becomes available you should be able to properly qualify or dismiss the XA or the other legs of this harmonic formations.


Quote
what are the reasons that make you sure that you selected the right XA ?

As traders we absolutely want to find high probability setups. Working off of proper highs and lows helps us reduce the mistake that most harmonic traders make in the beginning by forcing patterns into price action.

It is critical that price draws the pattern and not the trader drawing the pattern into price action. I'll show an example of this as well.

I hope I have answered your questions if you have further questions please post them.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-17 (1597 Tick) 2017_07_28 CRAB.png Size: 84 KB
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If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #31,169
  • Aug 26, 2017 8:02am Aug 26, 2017 8:02am
Hi :
This is my analysis of long term order flow of USDJPY on H1 timeframe.
I would really appreciate telling me if i am doing it right or not ..?
thanks in advance.
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  • #31,170
  • Aug 26, 2017 8:22am Aug 26, 2017 8:22am
Quoting parviz1953
Hi : This is my analysis of long term order flow of USDJPY on H1 timeframe. I would really appreciate telling me if i am doing it right or not ..? thanks in advance. {image}
looks good to me

so your looking to move stop loss to B/E at test of structure 109.80 area then with your targets where there are you got an approx Risk reward of 2 if taken at current set level

remember to not be disheartened if this trade does not work out just manage it according to your trading plan and keep plugging away and the results will come

best of luck trading
  • #31,171
  • Edited 10:59am Aug 26, 2017 10:44am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting parviz1953
Hi : This is my analysis of long term order flow of USDJPY on H1 timeframe. I would really appreciate telling me if i am doing it right or not ..? thanks in advance. {image}
To also add to that trade, earlier in this thread Ujku80 talks about after 2 harmonic completions price should retest the 61.8 of the entire move. But technically speaking price is in a complex correction of the entire move and is losing strength to the upside every leg it has been making. I see it making this last push and touching the 61.8 before deciding to continue the downtrend. Be on the look out for a nice rotation around the 110.030 - 110.100 area. This is what I'm looking at.
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  • #31,172
  • Aug 26, 2017 1:42pm Aug 26, 2017 1:42pm
Quoting S41nt
{quote} To also add to that trade, earlier in this thread Ujku80 talks about after 2 harmonic completions price should retest the 61.8 of the entire move. But technically speaking price is in a complex correction of the entire move and is losing strength to the upside every leg it has been making. I see it making this last push and touching the 61.8 before deciding to continue the downtrend. Be on the look out for a nice rotation around the 110.030 - 110.100 area. This is what I'm looking at. {image}
Thank you and Johny for comments:
I believe the last peak of price did not extent too much because price corrected to 78.6% deep , and now the correction was in 61.8-zone so i hope it will extend more , at any rate, i will move SL to BE as soon as it is coming close to major resistance area (the red rectangle). the ellipse is exactly at 61.8% of the major red down trend line ,and completion of the harmonic flow.
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  • #31,173
  • Aug 26, 2017 3:24pm Aug 26, 2017 3:24pm
Yeah I'm sure you've got it Parvis. One thing I noticed that I feel may help you some. If you look at the last part of the bear leg (18 Aug at 8 on your chart), price broke structure by that news event and if you use that steep bull leg as a harmonic it also works. You may have seen this but I tend to use whatever leg broke structure as my harmonic. I feel doing so helps me stay as current with price as possible.

I hope this helps my friend.
  • #31,174
  • Aug 26, 2017 3:34pm Aug 26, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting S41nt
Yeah I'm sure you've got it Parvis. One thing I noticed that I feel may help you some. If you look at the last part of the bear leg (18 Aug at 8 on your chart), price broke structure by that news event and if you use that steep bull leg as a harmonic it also works. You may have seen this but I tend to use whatever leg broke structure as my harmonic. I feel doing so helps me stay as current with price as possible. I hope this helps my friend.
Quote
I tend to use whatever leg broke structure as my harmonic. I feel doing so helps me stay as current with price as possible..
Very interesting advice ,is it really so ? since i was using the last leg always ,supposing ,it is the newest trend of the market..!
thanks again for your quick response.
  • #31,175
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 26, 2017 3:47pm | Edited 4:08pm
Your welcome Parvis, and so far it hasn't betrayed me. I mean I usually add more confluence to that, like momentum of the next leg and whether or not I get a clean rotation from the opposing side. So in that instance, I would have taken the short even though it broke structure because there was a clean rotation and plenty of room to protect and then paid attention to price. The next bear leg had extremely weak momentum and you could see it losing strength the entire way, and the strong rotation to the upside around the area it did would happen if price was in an uptrend, so it just gives confidence in the trend reversing. Then I would use that first bull leg as my harmonic expectation.

I hope this makes sense.

Edit: I cleaned this up because after rereading it, it didn't sound right.
  • #31,176
  • Aug 26, 2017 5:33pm Aug 26, 2017 5:33pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Thank you for your post and interest in my thread, it looks like you have more then one question LOL. Let's get into them: {quote} The XA leg is also known as the anchor leg to the advanced Harmonic Patterns developed by Scott Carney. I'm sure his explanation would certainly add much more value then mine but this is my take one it. The XA occurs off of a clear high or low on a price chart. This means that if you were to ask 100 people if this is the high or low that all would agree. I will show this with a chart for everyone's benefit. {quote}...
Mr. Pip,
Thank you so much taking time to reply to my questions
Actually i am lucky to find an experienced trader like you here to solve my confusion and gain experience from you.

Q1: Actually , i am still confused about xa
You replied " Clear highs and lows" , and my question is , in what range on chart ? or time period ?
As example, third picture you posted in your reply, we may choose prior high before what is actually selected in chart and will form a correct and a valid percentage correction forming B point

Q2: from your experience in harmonic, what can make me a successful harmonic trader ?, please guide me.

Q3: i hear about a newly discovered harmonic shapes , like "Dragon" , is that a right one ? and based on what this is right ? and why ?

Q4: Is there a harmonic trading with time ? or is there a time expectation for formations of xa, ab,,,,cd , like ratios 61.8,50,, ?

Thank you in advance for your valuable reply and help.
  • #31,177
  • Aug 26, 2017 6:06pm Aug 26, 2017 6:06pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Thank you and Johny for comments: I believe the last peak of price did not extent too much because price corrected to 78.6% deep , and now the correction was in 61.8-zone so i hope it will extend more , at any rate, i will move SL to BE as soon as it is coming close to major resistance area (the red rectangle). the ellipse is exactly at 61.8% of the major red down trend line ,and completion of the harmonic flow. {image}
Hi Damian:
May i ask you please ,to comment on this too ..?
  • #31,178
  • Aug 28, 2017 2:11am Aug 28, 2017 2:11am
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSH
- Market made an intraday NSH at 8am GMT
- Price is correcting off the swing as shown in 5m chart

Expectation: Would like price to come to the 61.8 Fib and will look for longs then. I might have missed it but still believe price can come lower. Let’s see

Long term: NSH
- Price completed the long term deep correction since price did correct 100% of the LH on Thursday

Expectation: Price is at my AOI at the 78.6, so I’m expecting this to be the change in direction. Will see how the intraday plays. There is confluence. Will want the intraday to play out and will be aggressive when price come to the strong structures.
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  • #31,179
  • Aug 28, 2017 3:45am Aug 28, 2017 3:45am
Quoting RajD
USDJPY Analysis Intraday: NSH - Market made an intraday NSH at 8am GMT - Price is correcting off the swing as shown in 5m chart Expectation: Would like price to come to the 61.8 Fib and will look for longs then. I might have missed it but still believe price can come lower. Let’s see Long term: NSH - Price completed the long term deep correction since price did correct 100% of the LH on Thursday Expectation: Price is at my AOI at the 78.6, so I’m expecting this to be the change in direction. Will see how the intraday plays. There is confluence....
Long at 109.191
Stop Loss at 109.113
  • #31,180
  • Aug 28, 2017 4:12am Aug 28, 2017 4:12am
Hello Damian,

Thanks for the best trading education I have come across so far. I have spent several thousand dollars on education, but what you give away for free is a lot more valuable.

I can tell you the first time I did the NSH/HL NSL/LH exercise I was really amazed and had to do it quite a few times with different instruments and time frames to convince myself that it really worked.

I have watched all your educational videos at YouTube and most of the live session recordings. When watching your videos, it all makes sense. But for some reason when I practice and try to do it myself I get very varying results. Sometimes I will get periods when it looks okay and a majority of my trades (by trades I mean back testing in Ninja Trader.) works. Then I can have periods when every single trade goes against me.

When I in hindsight tries to analyze my trades, I can always find reasons and explanations to why a particular trade shouldn’t have been taken. If I then tighten up my rules I will end up with zero trades because there is never a situation when everything is perfect.


I have attached 3 days of back testing (starting 2017-03-02) with my thought process written on the charts.

Any input will be highly appreciated!

Thanks again and have a great day!!

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