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There is no Magic Moving Average - You need only one

  • #101
  • Edited Aug 22, 2017 9:32am Aug 21, 2017 3:03pm | Edited Aug 22, 2017 9:32am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} You must understand that identifying wich market cycle is actually doesn't mean to buy/sell blindly. It mean it aid you to make an idea of what could happen and where you are. The decision to sell or buy shall be based only on supply and demand (swings) corelated with traders sentiment (slope of moving average) . You also must understand that without a strong risk management strategy, you will get in trouble with every sistem. A trade shall be aggresively managed meaning if you have a target of 1x reward, by aggresively...
Only the 1st part was about market cycle. The rest was about entry and trade management. Also i was referring to the use of market cycle within the confines of any system. So if a system uses blind entries then i guess that applies too.

I can understand how this can look like i'm attacking you but i really am not. Seriously.

On a side note, in this trade you've posted..
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Indeed.....
Price goes from 7490 to 7600 off the back of RBA minutes release. Sellers start selling from 7570 and push back at 7600. Makes sense to believe that at least on the short-term, the current sentiment is for price to go down.

If you were to have placed your stop where it was indicated on the 5m (the reduced risk) then you would have been stopped out. Would have been stopped out if left where it was indicated on the 4H as well. Here's what i mean.

1:1 from the 4H chart
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Risk reduced to the 5min pullback
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Using the initial target, that would have been a loss.

Maybe it would have hit a profit if you reduced the reward to around 1:1 but then the trade is no longer high reward low risk as described. It becomes high initial risk reduced to 1:1 rr and that requires a high hit rate to make profits after a couple of full losses (talking after 100+ trades). Just pointing out some observations.
  • #102
  • Aug 22, 2017 12:10am Aug 22, 2017 12:10am
The idea of entering at a retrace is really cool. A MA or a trend line? It is almost the same thing. Thus one can pyramid a nice trend movement and close the profitable trades by jumping or overlapping one, two, three or even more trades over each other.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #103
  • Aug 22, 2017 5:58am Aug 22, 2017 5:58am
hi andoseg2
I want try you system
if I want trade h1 I need to look at d1 for to see 3 d1 candles in one direction, or I can trade h1 with out watch for 3 d1 candles in one direction?
you system work from london to new york, corect? and after new york I close posittion?
  • #104
  • Aug 22, 2017 8:59am Aug 22, 2017 8:59am
According to my experience; moving average is the only one technical indicator that works! Basically I am a news trader but till now I use this useful indicator in my live trading chart! By the way, blindly following any technical tool is always dangerous!
  • #105
  • Aug 22, 2017 1:03pm Aug 22, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} I'm talking about how long the strategy has been implemented. Less than a year being short-term. Not how long the trades have been on. I can see how i wasn't clear on that point.
I spent at least 2 years studying market cycles exclusively, including making my own digital filters- hundreds of them- cycles are the basis of millions of activites nature has organized and I found it extremely exciting. Now it is my main go to as a trading guide.

They occur in multiple time frames, tend to phase but when there is confluence you get large moves. I find them invaluable.
.( And Androseg didn't show them to me either.)
If you refuse to believe that then good luck is all I can say.
  • #106
  • Edited 12:33pm Aug 23, 2017 3:17am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting bidie
{quote} I spent at least 2 years studying market cycles exclusively, including making my own digital filters- hundreds of them- cycles are the basis of millions of activites nature has organized and I found it extremely exciting. Now it is my main go to as a trading guide. They occur in multiple time frames, tend to phase but when there is confluence you get large moves. I find them invaluable. .( And Androseg didn't show them to me either.) If you refuse to believe that then good luck is all I can say.

Well done ! You said it all ! Now think about that : Find the Distribution Accumulation phase in a fresh Markup right after it has been confirmed and think of possibilities regarding the reward .

If you don't understand what I am referring to, let me know and I'll turn back with an example
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #107
  • Aug 23, 2017 3:44am Aug 23, 2017 3:44am
Great, but I can't see the whole picture of your strategy, so could you show me how to learn about this analysis
  • #108
  • Aug 23, 2017 8:51am Aug 23, 2017 8:51am
Quoting FX88VietNam
Great, but I can't see the whole picture of your strategy, so could you show me how to learn about this analysis

There's no strategy ! LoL everybody is looking for holy grail here .
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #109
  • Aug 23, 2017 10:25am Aug 23, 2017 10:25am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Well done ! You said it all ! Now think about that : Find the Distribution phase in a fresh Markup right after it has been confirmed and think of possibilities regarding the reward . If you don't understand what I am referring to, let me know and I'll turn back with an example
Thx -so you are saying find the distribution phase because then you will have lots of time to get a position in place for the next sell off? That is a relaxing way to trade I think! Makes sense....
  • #110
  • Edited 12:45pm Aug 23, 2017 12:34pm | Edited 12:45pm
Quoting bidie
{quote} Thx -so you are saying find the distribution phase because then you will have lots of time to get a position in place for the next sell off? That is a relaxing way to trade I think! Makes sense....
My bad, sorry, I mean accumulation, I was thinking to Accumulation and wrote Distribution.

So when the Distribution phase is confirmed, as soon as there is a pullback, you go and search for Distribution again (e.g Distribution confirmed on 1H, at first lower high, you search for another Distribution on 5m timeframe, thus resulting in
a trade with larger profit potential since you enter by aligning timeframes 5m>1h>Daily, like entering from 5m on Daily setup, think about that) Of course, there shall be filters based on price action, but that is the job of every trader which like to study the market. (Don't forget the risk management strategy in case the things are going worst)

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #111
  • Aug 24, 2017 6:20am Aug 24, 2017 6:20am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} My bad, sorry, I mean accumulation, I was thinking to Accumulation and wrote Distribution. So when the Distribution phase is confirmed, as soon as there is a pullback, you go and search for Distribution again (e.g Distribution confirmed on 1H, at first lower high, you search for another Distribution on 5m timeframe, thus resulting in a trade with larger profit potential since you enter by aligning timeframes 5m>1h>Daily, like entering from 5m on Daily setup, think about that) Of course, there shall be filters based on price action,...
I like that method! Takes away stress- you just gotta wait and be patient until the distribution ohase is over- how long are most distribution phases 2-3 days?
  • #112
  • Aug 24, 2017 8:07am Aug 24, 2017 8:07am
Quoting bidie
{quote} how long are most distribution phases 2-3 days?
It depend of the timeframes used. It can take 1h, 4h,8h, 3D,7D, and so on. Totally dependent of the timeframe studied.

Here more details about cycles on current AUD/USD (check the timeframe used on each picture) :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #113
  • Edited 8:49am Aug 24, 2017 8:20am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting bidie
{quote} Takes away stress- you just gotta wait and be patient until the distribution ohase is over-
Markup - Market phase with Higher Highs and Higher Lows => Bulls are controlling the trend.
Decline - Market phase with Lower Highs and Lower Lows => Bears are controlling the trend.
Accumulation - Market phase where bears and bulls are fighting with bulls as potential winners.
Distribution - Market phase where bulls and bears are fighting with bears as potential winners.
Sell the Distribution within fresh confirmed Decline to maximize gains.
Buy the Accumulation within fresh confirmed Markup to maximize gains.
Avoid to sell Distribution and Decline within Markup Phase.
Avoid to buy Accumulation and Markup within Distribution Phase.
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #114
  • Sep 4, 2017 4:53am Sep 4, 2017 4:53am
Frankly, I never used these parameters of EMA that you mentioned in your thread, I mean 12, 26 & 55! Yes I use EMA for quite a sometimes! But, I work with only EMA 50; it describes more the dynamic levels of market so keenly in order to me!
  • #115
  • Sep 12, 2017 11:32am Sep 12, 2017 11:32am
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #116
  • Sep 13, 2017 11:02am Sep 13, 2017 11:02am
another example

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #117
  • Sep 13, 2017 12:25pm Sep 13, 2017 12:25pm
Question : Wich Moving averages do you recommend ?
Answer : Depending of the timeframe you use.

Question : is this the Holy Grail ?
Answer : If you are searching for Holy Grail on a public trading forum, then I wish you sweet dreams.

Question : Why ?
Answer : You need to practice and also create your own risk-management strategy

For Day trades :
switch on 15m with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 48 (app.50) (12h Timeframe)
switch on 5m with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 96 (app.100) (8h Timeframe)
switch on 5m with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 72 (6h Timeframe)
switch on 5m with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 36 (3h Timeframe)

Swing Trades :

switch on 4h with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 30 (1w Timeframe)
switch on 1h with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 96 (4D Timeframe)
switch on 1h with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 72 (3D Timeframe)
switch on 1h with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 48 (2D Timeframe)

Position Trades :

switch on 1D with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 60 (3Mo Timeframe)
switch on 1D with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 120 (6 Mo Timeframe)
switch on 1W with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 48 (1Y Timeframe)
switch on 1Mo with a Simple Moving Average set on CLOSE with period of 24 (2Y Timeframe)

Example of Market Cycles for Day Trades :

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Example of Market Cycles for Swing Trades :
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Example of Market Cycles for Position Trades :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #118
  • Sep 14, 2017 6:49am Sep 14, 2017 6:49am
No doubt, moving average is one of the most useful technical tool! From my day of trading I have been using this trading tool, I am comfortable with EMA 20 & 50! This is the only one technical tool that I am using in my live chart.
  • #119
  • Sep 14, 2017 10:05am Sep 14, 2017 10:05am
Hi andoseg2 thank to share this information and the explications. If I understood well , depand what types of trader we are , you choose the MVA in function this type Ex. daytrader choose mva for the TF 15 min egal at 48 but you suggess 3 different mva's for the 5 min chart ( choose to see better the differents phases of the market...accumulation, declination etc... can you give more information this 3 chooses... what the best chooses ...the most rapid MVA ???

HAve a nice day

Liberty55
  • #120
  • Sep 14, 2017 10:19am Sep 14, 2017 10:19am
Quoting liberty55
Hi andoseg2 thank to share this information and the explications. If I understood well , depand what types of trader we are , you choose the MVA in function this type Ex. daytrader choose mva for the TF 15 min egal at 48 but you suggess 3 different mva's for the 5 min chart ( choose to see better the differents phases of the market...accumulation, declination etc... can you give more information this 3 chooses... what the best chooses ...the most rapid MVA ??? HAve a nice day Liberty55
Hi,
It depend the timeframe you use. Please read what is written until now you will have a better understanding

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=691864
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
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