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There is no Magic Moving Average - You need only one

  • #41
  • Aug 18, 2017 8:11am Aug 18, 2017 8:11am
Quoting DrForexMD
{quote} My SL is definitely not a hard SL position. I would not use a SL at all if I could...
Ok, so you do confirm my impression that you use a mental Stop. Good for you.
  • #42
  • Aug 18, 2017 8:20am Aug 18, 2017 8:20am
Quote
Ok, so you do confirm my impression that you use a mental Stop. Good for you.

Yes... for sure ... Thank you !
"What Goes Up, Must Come Down." - (c) Sir Isaac Newton - 1647
  • #43
  • Aug 18, 2017 11:49am Aug 18, 2017 11:49am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} In my opinion,there is no need to use more that 1 moving average except the cases where you need 3 moving averages (short term, intermediate term and longer term) where the short and medium term MA will cross giving signal that the momentum is slowing, giving you opportunity to take a risk-management decision (take a portion of profit, move stoploss in profit or exit completely). As a reminder, this method doesn't mean buy and sell all the time. Estabilish a trend, based on Market Cycles, then go only long in the Markup Phase and only short...
Andoseg, it depends what you use the moving average (s) for. Some people use 2 MAs (fast/slow) to not only indicate change in momentum (narrowing/widening) and change in trend (a cross), but also to indicate a zone between the MAs where you can enter a trade on a trend pullback.
  • #44
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:01pm Aug 18, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting andoseg2
Let take another example at EUR/USD {image} {image}
I use EMAs. at glance I reviewed your posts and have questions : on your chart in quoted post you use SMA50 on M5. what would make decision making difference if you use SMA 34 or SMA21 instead SMA50? what is logic, why is correct trading approach to use SMA50 instead SMA 21, 34 or 89, 100? I am disappointed that i could not understand that.
thank you
I can.I will. End of story.
  • #45
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:11pm Aug 18, 2017 12:11pm
The simple truth about moving averages is not in the period or numbers. It is about how you use them. In other words, the strategy you employ.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #46
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:21pm Aug 18, 2017 12:21pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I was commenting based on what you said, and the pics you showed. Now, you say I misunderstood, so I guess I am going to have a hard time providing opinions to both sides of your hypothesis. The link you sent tried to give me a virus, or did, so I will just have to guess it is more theory. Our real disagreement is theory vs reality. Like the other member asked, what are your results? Not to be confrontational, but this just seems like an idea, not a real trading method. You are just picking moving averages out of the air and calling them...
I new dkrock could not stay away-- I mean with a thread name like magic MA How could dkrock stay a way!!!!

Now, is this guy a passive aggressive or what..... I could elaborate but I will keep it short.

Hay dkrock --- Why don't you cut the bull sh1t--- your regurgitating the same old crap.....

We all want to know about your magic MA method-- why don't you start your own thread and show us all how to do it FROM the MEAN.

Where is the animated laughing man when you need him.

Regards
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #47
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:41pm Aug 18, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I was commenting based on what you said, ............ Good Luck.
hi dkrock...

many thanks to you.. i swear to holy god you are an angle trader here in FF.

you added a real correct top up on all of all wrong theories and you have summarized all in one phrase.... as i was and still saying.... all old and new indicators with different sizes, colors , patterns are ans till derivatives of moving averages.. or an array of a moving average.

there is not a magic moving average, and there will not be such thing... it is just a title by the author to convince himself by this topic that he has found the holy grill.

i am really sorry and i apologies to mr. andoseg2 that there is not magic moving average, and please try to understand that, your efforts are really appreciated, but just think for a while, how many years the moving averages are being use in trading in the whole world ( more than 110 years rom japan at early stocks markets when created in japan then spread to the whole world ) and how many clever men and mathematicians and traders built many complicated programs and theories about trading the stocks and forex using the moving averages and each day there will be new ideas by millions of these brain storm men.

i used the moving average and caused me depression, losses and i asked my self as an engineer who can build expert advisers and mostly are 99% of them failed in forex marker as they were running for few days or even months. then boom -ve results .... mostly bcz all of the indicators are built on Ma's

i am with the dcrok.... a theory is a theory and mainly if it was being tested by millions and showed failer is still a theory...

when this theory is making money then it will not be a theory it will be a system...

all bankers, funds managers and Fat traders will not use Ma.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #48
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:44pm Aug 18, 2017 12:44pm
He has started his own thread about trading this way. You will not find an ea or indy to copy though, you would have to use your brain....
  • #49
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:50pm Aug 18, 2017 12:50pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} In my opinion,there is no need to use more that 1 moving average except the cases where you need 3 moving averages (short term, intermediate term and longer term) where the short and medium term MA will cross giving signal that the momentum is slowing, giving you opportunity to take a risk-management decision (take a portion of profit, move stoploss in profit or exit completely). As a reminder, this method doesn't mean buy and sell all the time. Estabilish a trend, based on Market Cycles, then go only long in the Markup Phase and only short...
hi

there are one film on you tube by a very prospective forex company... is showing the moving avergae and channel and trend in a ery nice way to an extent that it is one of the perfect films to describe the moving average and how to use it.
but at the end, they are saying in BOLD letters and load voice that the single moving average will not help you to trade but it you need two or three or evan one complete channel built on moving average,


again, i thank you for your efforts, but i do hope one day you will realize that you were wasting your time .... why to invent the wheel while there was someone else invented it ......

moving average has many defects and i will not talk or write more here, i will stop on this point that you will not consider me trying to tease or destroy your thread...

please forgive me for my tough writings but i must say it... the ma caused me alot of pain oneday caused me a lot of losses that i still use it as an indicator to tell the trend only but I will not ever never trade using it.
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #50
  • Aug 18, 2017 12:55pm Aug 18, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting Jhlewis10
He has started his own thread about trading this way. You will not find an ea or indy to copy though, you would have to use your brain....

i respect that but i will not invent the wheel while someone already had invented it, so i will not use my brain to create new ideas about the same wheel, it is already there,,, just search the internet for the same idea and you will find many brains had shown the same idea ... but in different titles and different languages such as korean, japanses, russion, finish, urdu , hindi , arabic , and merely some what in dutch. and english of course ...

i found so many articles about so many useful indicators in these languages and you need just to dig and search and translate....
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #51
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:09pm Aug 18, 2017 1:09pm
after this many time i found someone that really know something about MAs and he decided to share his view with others
thanks to this presentetion and i hope you keep it up .

i just cant understand those peoples just instead of seeing the possitive side of this thread just trying too mock up the writer just because he has another view about market .
we all are human and in any problem around thr world we have different point of view even in market . if market had a stright and clear method of making money and every one had same opinion about it then it should be no losing money for any one inside market .but we see that too many people lose money in this market because every one has his own opinion and the only think people can do is sharing this opinion to reduce amount of lose .

so please clear the path and let the man keep this topic up .
good luck and keep it up .
  • #52
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:24pm Aug 18, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting mehdisdt
after this many time i found someone that really know something about MAs and he decided to share his view with others thanks to this presentetion and i hope you keep it up . i just cant understand those peoples just instead of seeing the possitive side of this thread just trying too mock up the writer just because he has another view about market . we all are human and in any problem around thr world we have different point of view even in market . if market had a stright and clear method of making money and every one had same opinion about it...

hi

the idea of the author is welcomed and i do hope it will pass and it will gain momentum to produce something positive called a system to use it for trading.

yes there is a very positive side of this thread and i respect the author too much.... and i adore his idea....

therefore, i will step aside watching the progress of this thread, as you know, he is ranked 1% top and i thank him for his efforts, but when there is an idea - brilliant idea , it will shine as a star in dark night .... and you will see many traders will join and sharing with positive posts, but when the idea is a critical tested many times even with not the same nearly principle, you will see many gurus, "noobs" , and mockers who tried the same principle and may be it is better or worse than this idea, but the result was boooooommm - big fail... so i am trying to advise not to tease//


as i said i will step a side and watch the thread......

there was a lady here in FF, she made a thread about here idea for trading, and when she posted the first post, in one month more than 600 subscribers and 1 million view , and the positive traders who found it as such brilliant idea shared her their systems to develop her idea and this resulted 450 pages in less than 6 months and more than 3.5 millions view .....

and the system she created was and still till today in the FF one of the best trading free systems for all ....
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #53
  • Edited 1:51pm Aug 18, 2017 1:33pm | Edited 1:51pm
Hey guys,

I have a question about this whole idea of accumulation, markup, distribution, mark down specifically in Forex.

So if i buy the Eur/Usd that means i'm Accumulating Euros and Distributing US Dollars simultaneously. If price ranges you call it Accumulation if the last trend was down (Mark-Down) or Distribution if the last trend was up (Mark-Up).

So if i buy the Eur/Usd that means i'm Marking Up Euros and Marking Down US Dollars simultaneously. So i guess in this case you'd have to know what state of the Market Cycle the Euro is in and what state of the Market Cycle the USD is in. After figuring that out, you'd also probably have to know which one is "stronger" than the other. This is all assuming that one can figure these things out.

I mean, you'd have to take into account the state of every other currency that people would exchange for a Euro or Dollar in order to figure out the current market cycle. Someone could be accumulating Pounds by selling lots of Euros, some Dollars, Kiwis, Yen, etc..

If Euro was "Marking-Up" then it might stop for a bit then continue after that group finished with their Gbp accumulation.

I ask this question because i don't see any mention of measuring other currencies to get an idea on a whatever cross pair you're looking at in this thread.

How can one decide what market cycle the Eur/Usd is in without also taking a look at all other Currencies or at least those currencies known to have a greater pull?

Please keep in mind, i'm not a newbie to speculation. Been trading for quite some time.
  • #54
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:34pm Aug 18, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Thank your for your time to read my topic. First, I think you missunderstand. I do not insist to use the moving averages cross signals, but to use the longer term (the single MA you need in fact) Moving average as a dinamic support/resistance. I would like to remember that the way I present the informations here shall be correlated with Market Cycles You can find more by googling "market cycles". Trading based on market...
Do your thing. Good Luck.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #55
  • Aug 18, 2017 1:35pm Aug 18, 2017 1:35pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I was commenting based on what you said, and the pics you showed. Now, you say I misunderstood, so I guess I am going to have a hard time providing opinions to both sides of your hypothesis. The link you sent tried to give me a virus, or did, so I will just have to guess it is more theory. Our real disagreement is theory vs reality. Like the other member asked, what are your results? Not to be confrontational, but this just seems like an idea, not a real trading method. You are just picking moving averages out of the air and calling them...

Thank you dkrock, extremely informative and interesting post as always!

Regards!
  • #56
  • Aug 18, 2017 2:10pm Aug 18, 2017 2:10pm
Quoting LookinGood
Hey guys, I have a question about this whole idea of accumulation, markup, distribution, mark down specifically in Forex. So if i buy the Eur/Usd that means i'm Accumulating Euros and Distributing US Dollars simultaneously. If price ranges you call it Accumulation if the last trend was down (Mark-Down) or Distribution if the last trend was up (Mark-Up). So if i buy the Eur/Usd that means i'm Marking Up Euros and Marking Down US Dollars simultaneously. So i guess in this case you'd have to know what state of the Market Cycle the Euro is in and what...

cycle is not found easily.

ok, i will give you an example,

before few weeks back, the eu was ready to boom to the north in an uptrend channel and i was ready to buy many lots as i was expecting from the mrket cycles that this is my chnce to recover some of the losses... the usd fundemantels were very weka t that time and yes this is my new cycle, the eu will go north...

but the shock was, eu did not move to the north, it was stagnant in range channel of 30 points = 3 pips???????

for 5 hours it was in 4 to 7 pips...... wtf..... but the audusd and nzdusd were booming to the ski hi like rockets .... 200 pips each nearly and they were not in any cycle and they were not counted to move at all..

what i am trying to say.... in your dreams only you can find this cycle... in other words..... you can not predict or measure which pair will act in a cycle bcz the market makers will decide suddenly which pair to trade...

as i remember one trader asked the same question ... why the eu did not move... and i replied to him in the same thread ... audusd and nzdusd did the homework for the eu....


so, there was an old thread here in FF about cycles depending on the stars in the sky and on the tie and moon light.... i advise you to read it . may be you will find an answer to your questions..
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #57
  • Edited 2:57pm Aug 18, 2017 2:30pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting Samer1970
{quote} cycle is not found easily. ok, i will give you an example, before few weeks back, the eu was ready to boom to the north in an uptrend channel and i was ready to buy many lots as i was expecting from the mrket cycles that this is my chnce to recover some of the losses... the usd fundemantels were very weka t that time and yes this is my new cycle, the eu will go north... but the shock was, eu did not move to the north, it was stagnant in range channel of 30 points = 3 pips??????? for 5 hours it was in 4 to 7 pips...... wtf..... but the audusd...
Astrology cannot predict the aggregate intentions of the different banks looking to exchange currencies for the Euro at any point. This i cannot provide statistics on and thus will not be able to sit through any kind of draw down (my trading is mostly discretionary).

Your example illustrates what my question is referring too.

When one currency is affected by all currencies, how can one attempt to successfully predict and execute a trade based on market cycle when only looking at one cross pair?
  • #58
  • Aug 18, 2017 7:00pm Aug 18, 2017 7:00pm
you should have strength indicator for the units not pairs
you should trade basket pf pairs
you should know how to make hedging between different pairs and inside any single pair

i will give ou an example

i have basket of 6 pairs, and on each 2 weeks i change them randomly as per the unit strength of the last week, i write it down on my note book let's say on 1/8/2017 and on 6/8/2017 i see which units went down and wich units up

then i choose my 6 pairs

on yesterday, my 6 pairs did not act as i required, i made some wrong trades in gu and uc, but au,nu,an are good and uj was also good

so au+nu are hedging with an
uj is hedging with gu
uj is hedging with uc

but gu and uc went both wrong.. i was totally mistaken in my trades .... all went wrong , i bought gu, i sold uc, but uc went up, gu went down

so i made internal hedging . if i have nn lots buy in gu, i made nn=nnn sell lots in gu
so i so i made internal hedging . if i have nnn lots sell in uc, i made nnn=nn buy l lots in uc

i increased the tp to 5 times more than the normal tp limits in both pairs gu and uc

i stopped all trades in these pairs

and i continued my trading in good pairs
uj totally closed with profit.
an too
nu 50% good and still few trades open
au 80% good and few trades still open

and the two pairs gu and uc went up, down, hi, low, the loss is only the spread and the original floating loss, and on next week, i will begin trading these two as if they are on zero level to close as much as i can with profit

all in all i do not use stop loss never ever

on next w
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #59
  • Aug 18, 2017 10:15pm Aug 18, 2017 10:15pm
Quoting LookinGood
{quote} Astrology cannot predict the aggregate intentions of the different banks looking to exchange currencies for the Euro at any point. This i cannot provide statistics on and thus will not be able to sit through any kind of draw down (my trading is mostly discretionary). Your example illustrates what my question is referring too. When one currency is affected by all currencies, how can one attempt to successfully predict and execute a trade based on market cycle when only looking at one cross pair?
HERE IN FF there are several threads about cycles
but why not to give you small hint about how to find your own way in discovering the cycles
let's begin the fun

do you hear of stoch... indi

it is the best of the best to show you cycles

what is a cycle

it is a circular loop, if you begin on top, the loop will guide you to bottom then ends on top again and vice versa is corect

refer to the following chart,,,,



now make two charts for 2 different pairs in your screen

then you will see 2 different cycles for the same period of time

if these 2 pairs are +ve correlated then they are both moving in te same direction-good for cycle
if these 2 pairs are -ve correlated they are inverse--good for cycle
if they are having 0 corr... then wow bingo you are in the wrong side of the cycle - search for +ve or -ve

period of the cycle

it depends from 1 day to several days depending on the trend... gurus and fat funds... fundamentals....... "s/r in some cases"

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 46 KB
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #60
  • Aug 18, 2017 10:34pm Aug 18, 2017 10:34pm
Samer1970 no offence, but please stop. Thanks.

I'm asking a real question.

I'm not dealing in should dos and random scenarios whether real or not. It should be quite obvious from my question that i've pointed out a flaw in this idea of an FX market cycle and the use of 1 pair to predict it.

Price moves up and down. That's about it. Sometimes buyers consistently beat out sellers and visa versa. Most times they're pretty even. This up down stuff that has been labeled as a market cycle is just buyers that are willing to buy low and sellers that are willing to sell high. That's really all there is to it. There's no early, mid or late anything. That stuff only looks good on historical charts.

Why don't we try a little exercise next week. Lets use the market cycle that we're talking about here and predict what price will do the next day everyday from Monday to Friday in the Euro/Usd. Lets do this live. Everyone is invited to do this. No trade explorer needed, just a live chart.
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