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Price-Structure-Order flow

  • #401
  • Aug 10, 2017 6:31pm Aug 10, 2017 6:31pm
further update on WTI - short:
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Price has closed below the intraday balance zone, well into what was previously buyer's territory. I halfway expect another push higher, into the bottom of the balance zone, then lower. I have reduced risk on this trade by moving my stop loss closer to the market, just above the last peak (seen on the middle chart).

I will be keeping a close eye on this trade tomorrow as it is the end of the week.
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  • #402
  • Aug 14, 2017 1:34pm Aug 14, 2017 1:34pm
Update on WTI - Short:
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After testing the bottom part of the balance zone, price is now cascading away in my direction and closing in on my first take profit target. I have decided to let this trade play over the next month, while I am moving my operations to California. I will be out of contact from this thread for the next few weeks. I will check it every now and again with my cell phone, but will not be in a position to make any further trades.

If this trade works out I will have made all the 3rd quarter profits projected and will take a well deserved break until the US decides if it is going to war with North Korea.

I hope you will all keep posting and discussing ideas. I will chime in as I can...but don't let things die...I have really enjoyed this opportunity to discuss market structure with you all and hope to continue doing so in the future.
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  • #403
  • Aug 14, 2017 4:54pm Aug 14, 2017 4:54pm
Hi DonPato,

I'm still here, but more in the reading/learning mode as I finish reading "Time compression trading" and digest your previous posts.

I hope this is not something you've already covered but for the WTI trade, for the entries, did you spread them (beginning, middle, end) of the zone or is there a more specific method to this entry?

As soon as I'm done reading everything I'll try to share in a more productive way here and try to help to grow the thread because this is really a gold mine for anybody who wants to understand price structure order flow trading.

Good luck with your move and enjoy your vacations!
  • #404
  • Aug 14, 2017 5:45pm Aug 14, 2017 5:45pm
The lowest entry was manual and that's just where I happened to see the signal. The middle entry was at the level where the sellers first took control on the way down. The highest entry was at the body of the buyer's exhaustion on the last push higher. I never know which entry will fill or if they will all fail. I just have to rely on my ability to read the order flow in the moment...from one moment to the next.
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  • #405
  • Aug 16, 2017 3:20pm Aug 16, 2017 3:20pm
Hey all, I'm still around, just been clearing my head a bit. Have felt very relaxed and in sync with the market over the last week or so. My levels/AOIs are typically pretty accurate, but I think it's been helping asking who's bring it back to this level. Instead of just looking at it as a pullback for entry is it a profit taking minimal retrace, or is it a level where opposing order flow would be coming in. Depending on which helps determine how strong the pullback will be.

Also, I've been trying to open to what the market will give me on a given move. Usually I would get up 50-60 pips, move to BE and hold on for my 100pip plus target. But trying to flow more with the market I'm looking to where opposeFLow may come in, take my profits there, lets the opposers drive the market back close to my entry and get back in treating it as the same trade. This way I lock in some profits, but still end up in the same trade with the bigger target. Naturally the downside is if price blows through the opposeflow level and I got out I miss that move, but again, I'm trying to gauge what type of orders and traders are causing these moves.
  • #406
  • Aug 17, 2017 6:49am Aug 17, 2017 6:49am
Quick note from my cell phone...1st limit reached on WTI short for a profit of 278 pips. Stop to break even on remaining position.
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SW. You are exactly right... trying to guage"who" is participating in price moves allow you to eventually be more intuitive about you trading which is a goal we all seek and opens the door to effortless flowing trading.
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  • #407
  • Aug 19, 2017 1:36pm Aug 19, 2017 1:36pm
Hi guys,

I know DonPato you're already long on USDCAD.

I see a possible entry, am I seeing this right?

On the monthly / weekly I see the price in the bottom of a range so going long seems to be the most probable way to go.

On the daily, I see the price just "wooshed" out of a compression zone and it's coming back to it.

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Does this make sense or did I miss anything in my analysis?
  • #408
  • Aug 20, 2017 9:51pm Aug 20, 2017 9:51pm
Hey guys,

This is the same trade on the 1h. It looks like sellers could be exhausted, I see a lot of long wicks to the down side. Price balanced, it reached up and now it seems like it's coming back slowly to the zone and it's in the Daily zone highlighted in the previous post.

I'm not looking to get in a trade right now, I'm just trying to train my eye for a little bit to "sync" with the market as much as possible so any comments from you guys would be appreciated.

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  • #409
  • Aug 21, 2017 7:11pm Aug 21, 2017 7:11pm
Quoting khaolin
Hey guys, This is the same trade on the 1h. It looks like sellers could be exhausted, I see a lot of long wicks to the down side. Price balanced, it reached up and now it seems like it's coming back slowly to the zone and it's in the Daily zone highlighted in the previous post. I'm not looking to get in a trade right now, I'm just trying to train my eye for a little bit to "sync" with the market as much as possible so any comments from you guys would be appreciated. {image}
Hey Khaolin,

I see what you're referring to but I wouldn't be interested in a long from here. It's against the weekly and daily structure, lower lows lower highs. Weekly has been down for a while, daily turned up for a brief period and is now down again. For me this would be counter trend.

If you look at the 4HR it's been balancing and is holding solid, my guess is that they'll break it short and run stops.
  • #410
  • Edited 3:45am Aug 23, 2017 1:46am | Edited 3:45am
Hey SwTrue,

Thanks for your answer!

I thought I was seeing a bit of an exhaustion on the 1D/even slightly on the W and a move up, but this move up would be more like a profit taking you think? A slight up move before the selling resumes?

Should I stick to the Weekly/Daily trend until it is obvious that a change has already happened to go the "other way" ?

Are there telltale signs that you look for to tell if it's just a small take profit move?
  • #411
  • Aug 31, 2017 12:16pm Aug 31, 2017 12:16pm
Khaolin,

Yeah, I want to have at least the daily structure on my side. If weekly is against me I'll be more conservative with targets whereas if both are lined up there should be more momentum so targets may be larger.

Normally for the structure to change it has to be significant order flow, not just profit taking. so this normally keeps you on the right side.
  • #412
  • Sep 2, 2017 6:36am Sep 2, 2017 6:36am
Hi guys! How about this one:

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NZD/USD has gone beyond what I would consider a retest, and is right now overwhelming the bid order flow. What I'm seeing is the UNbalancing of order flow to the offer side, after a top has been established in late July. A top which I have missed, by the way, because I was too focused on looking for the buying to return (aka the retest) to see what the market was so obviously telling me - an important lesson right there.

Never the less. On the weekly we can see the whoosh begin, as buyers are stopped the F out. Bottom blue area is where I will be looking for a retest and for the signs of this dominant offer order flow to return. In short, around the .72 mark. If we look at the daily, we can see that the price has already returned there once after the "flush", in what I call the "fast retrace":

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The "slow retrace" usually comes later, after all of the losing OF traders have stopped out, and the price stalls.
  • #413
  • Sep 6, 2017 12:12pm Sep 6, 2017 12:12pm
Quoting ZeleniCaj
Hi guys! How about this one: {image} NZD/USD has gone beyond what I would consider a retest, and is right now overwhelming the bid order flow. What I'm seeing is the UNbalancing of order flow to the offer side, after a top has been established in late July. A top which I have missed, by the way, because I was too focused on looking for the buying to return (aka the retest) to see what the market was so obviously telling me - an important lesson right there. Never the less. On the weekly we can see the whoosh begin, as buyers are stopped the F out....
Good eye Zelen! I would be interested from a little higher up. See chart below. As you noted the quick retest has already happened. Sometimes the second retest will hold at the same level, but normally it'll go a bit deeper and take out stops. I passed on this as I didn't feel as clear on it, but took a nice short on NZDCHF and had another pending order for short that didn't get filled.
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  • #414
  • Sep 7, 2017 4:28am Sep 7, 2017 4:28am
You know, I got doubts now. I know what I see, but on the other hand, I'm careful not to try to "latch onto" what I see too much, and miss other things. As the retest swing was forming, I've noticed a familiar structure:

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I looked at it (it's a daily, btw) and I said, "ok, let's for a moment consider the alternative". The structure has formed in a price area where it would be reasonable to expect a change in the order flow, looking back I've marked it with arrows. Also I was like, okay if this really is buying dominance right there, let's see the retest on a smaller time frame. I've marked two zones where I would expect the buying to come back, and they have both produced a little effect, though the top one was eventually stopped out. We are now in the bottom one:

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Oh, and the top of that last swing low? Where you and me were originally expecting a "second retrace" on a larger TF? There you can clearly see a bearish OF change structure form. In line with my earlier thinking. But what about that structure down below? Will we see buying volume enter? And if we do, what does that mean? Is it a swing high after all?

Gah, this baffles me to no end. Is it a swing? Is it a retest? A retest of a retest? A retest of a retest of a retest on a quarterly time frame?.. Frustrating! Tbh understanding order flow does not make it easier for me to get around in this labyrinth of possibilities.
  • #415
  • Sep 9, 2017 8:55pm Sep 9, 2017 8:55pm
Hello friends... I just took delivery of my computer two days ago and am setting up a new temporary office. I see you have continued commenting and appreciate that you kept things going here.

I still have much work to do but will be able to enter comments and read replies with greater facility. I look forward to engaging with you all very soon.
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  • #416
  • Sep 9, 2017 9:05pm Sep 9, 2017 9:05pm
Quoting ZeleniCaj
...Gah, this baffles me to no end. Is it a swing? Is it a retest? A retest of a retest? A retest of a retest of a retest on a quarterly time frame?.. Frustrating! Tbh understanding order flow does not make it easier for me to get around in this labyrinth of possibilities.
I feel your pain and confusion. I too (yes still) struggle with these decisions every time I look at a chart.

I will be happy to comment on this further later this week. For now try considering this...it is all ONE market. The confusing aspect of looking at multiple time frames just as you have stated...the possibilities are endless.

That is where "structure" helps. And it is why I look at big time frames before looking to find entry points. Of course structure is also dynamic but changes can be seen and anticipated readily because they take time to form.

This consider that if you are finding it difficult to understand or "see" the order flow perhaps a larger view will help. Yes even those monthly charts move and change...more later gotta go.
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  • #417
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:00am Sep 15, 2017 9:00am
Quoting ZeleniCaj
You know, I got doubts now. I know what I see, but on the other hand, I'm careful not to try to "latch onto" what I see too much, and miss other things. As the retest swing was forming, I've noticed a familiar structure: {image} I looked at it (it's a daily, btw) and I said, "ok, let's for a moment consider the alternative". The structure has formed in a price area where it would be reasonable to expect a change in the order flow, looking back I've marked it with arrows. Also I was like, okay if this really is buying dominance right there, let's...
Exactly Zelen! This is one of the hardest parts about trading, we're all looking at the same info, but it's our interpretation that sets us apart. I probably lean more towards being a fear driven trader, I can always see a reason the trade may not work, a reason to get out or stay out. Whereas many traders are more greed driven, they always see a trade and are blind to the negative flow.

Like I said previously, I think I've developed further and been more in flow with the market. If you find yourself confused on a pair, MOVE ON! I watch about 30 pairs and find myself staring at a chart for 10 minutes just to decide the trend/direction if there's conflict...and then I'm reminded, who cares, there's other trades to take...if it's not clear steer clear. Sometimes you need to take a day or two away from the charts. I always feel clear headed after a weekend or so of no charts, staying busy and not thinking about the markets.

Also, I should have been clearer on that NZDUSD trade, I would have only hit that level I showed once, which had already happened when I posted. It wasn't a level that I would have given more time to breath.
  • #418
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:00am Sep 15, 2017 9:00am
Quoting DonPato
Hello friends... I just took delivery of my computer two days ago and am setting up a new temporary office. I see you have continued commenting and appreciate that you kept things going here. I still have much work to do but will be able to enter comments and read replies with greater facility. I look forward to engaging with you all very soon.
Good to hear it Don! Hope you're up and rolling soon!
  • #419
  • Sep 15, 2017 9:29am Sep 15, 2017 9:29am
Few thoughts...

I cancel a large majority of my trades. Not out of fear, but typically because my entries are a little too conservative. The entries I do get are typically on the money. I normally see a couple levels that "makes sense"...but which to take? I'm going to try and loosen up a bit, and split my positions up when it makes since. I'm not averaging in or doing any of this "loss recovery" nonsense, I'm still trading the market structure we just never know which level is the key level.

I've talked some on here about the "2 step" pullbacks, where the market retraces, continues with the trend a bit then does a deeper retrace for a much large move with the trend. I think I see what's happening order flow wise and what big money is doing. They need liquidity to get big positions on, they need traders to take the other side of their trades. Now we all know a stop loss is just an order in the opposite direction and I think I've always thought of my stop loss being for my trade. Like they're paired up...this is not at all the case. My stop is just a random order that gets filled.

So here's what I think happens with the 2 step. I think big money trades with the trend. In a long market scenario I think after the first pull back they know that there's pools of stops below the first pull back, they also know that many traders will go short at in the same area as "breakout traders", thinking the market is changing structure. All of those orders are sell orders, piles of sell orders. If big money wants to get long, to buy, they need someone to sell to them. So when all the stops are getting hit and the breakout traders are jumping on they're buying everything up. They keep buying, eventually sellers run out of orders, market begins to move up, now all the short breakout traders are getting their stops hit which are buy orders, which continues to drive the market up.

I can't really say at this time if seeing/understanding this really adds much to my trading. It gives me the why of what I'm seeing, why what I'm doing works.

I lost 4-5 trades in a row...2 of them I knew were sketchy. I've won my last 7-8 trades. All based on structure and the levels that make sense.

I need to get serious and track my trades...I've been avoided this for a long time...it's a lot of work. But I feel this is my next step.
  • #420
  • Sep 15, 2017 2:07pm Sep 15, 2017 2:07pm
Quoting swTrue
I've talked some on here about the "2 step" pullbacks, where the market retraces, continues with the trend a bit then does a deeper retrace for a much large move with the trend. I think I see what's happening order flow wise and what big money is doing. They need liquidity to get big positions on, they need traders to take the other side of their trades. Now we all know a stop loss is just an order in the opposite direction and I think I've always thought of my stop loss being for my trade. Like they're paired up...this is not at all the case. My...
This is what I was talking about, right at the beginning of my participation, when I said that "smart money is manipulating the market in certain places". But does knowing that helps utilizing it? For me - not in a very significant manner. The main difference between you and me in this case and in this example, is that you were doing the "how" first, then realized the "why", once the "how" is already ticking. I've learned the "why", and then thought that applying that to the market will produce the "how". But it doesn't, really. In my search to try and reconcile these facts, have I stumbled upon this thread, by the way.
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