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Fundamental Trading 6 replies

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Fundamental Trading

Quoting XxixixX
Fundamentals do not drive markets, it is sentiment of larger players, however it can be the catalyst to start something. Buyers and sellers move prices. Utilizing a blend of Fundamental, Sentiment and Technical analysis will help ensure success and longevity.
Lol its the fundamentals that creates the sentiment. For example if a country plans to hike rates 4 times in a year then that currency will be bullish all year round. Central banks are the drivers of the market as investors want to keep their money in banks that can provide a return due to the interest rate.
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol its the fundamentals that creates the sentiment. For example if a country plans to hike rates 4 times in a year then that currency will be bullish all year round. Central banks are the drivers of the market as investors want to keep their money in banks that can provide a return due to the interest rate.
lol, fundamentals do not create sentiment, just curious how long have you been trading?
open it up, market goes down
open it down, market goes up

ahhhggd#%&^@***gukbjkghffgikckgbkvhlghollm,b

wtf is happening with me


ahhh, i see, fundamentals
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} lol, fundamentals do not create sentiment, just curious how long have you been trading?
Lol see you are thinking like a retail trader. You have to remember that money is getting moved around for investors to generate an extra income. Do you think people are looking at charts all day in hedgefunds and banks to impact whether they buy or sell? Can you explain to me why all commercial traders as well as hedgefund traders pay for Reuters and bloomberg which is £25k per head. What moves markets is data, high impacted news and most of all central banks. This is the reason why people click the buy and sell button.
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol see you are thinking like a retail trader. You have to remember that money is getting moved around for investors to generate an extra income. Do you think people are looking at charts all day in hedgefunds and banks to impact whether they buy or sell? Can you explain to me why all commercial traders as well as hedgefund traders pay for Reuters and bloomberg which is £25k per head. What moves markets is data, high impacted news and most of all central banks. This is the reason why people click the buy and sell button.
you are 100% true
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • Post #306
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:09am Aug 16, 2017 4:54am | Edited at 5:09am
Sentiment is institutional bias, and comes from fundamentals, typically derived from
Geopolitical events (eg-Brexit, war, elections, heads of states speeches etc...)
Economic cycle (recession/boom)
Central banks/ers statements & speeches
Commodities (dairy,iron ore,oil)- where applicable
Effects from other countries (China's affects Australia, euro affects Swiss Franc)

Sentiment changes as the above plays out

However, changes in central bank bias towards interest rates will have a significant effect on the direction of a currency. Obviously its future direction will also be influenced by the factors that central banks consider important - (CPI, GDP, the relative value of the currency etc...)
  • Post #307
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:56am Aug 16, 2017 5:05am | Edited at 7:56am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol see you are thinking like a retail trader. You have to remember that money is getting moved around for investors to generate an extra income. Do you think people are looking at charts all day in hedgefunds and banks to impact whether they buy or sell? Can you explain to me why all commercial traders as well as hedgefund traders pay for Reuters and bloomberg which is £25k per head. What moves markets is data, high impacted news and most of all central banks. This is the reason why people click the buy and sell button.
LOL retail traders are looking at indicators lights on a chart for direction much like a bug is attracted to a bug zapper and we know how that goes . If you focus solely on fundamentals, you not looking at the whole picture, which at this point who is looking more like a retail trader? As I stated before, data can be the catalyst, however you need participants to move prices.
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol its the fundamentals that creates the sentiment. For example if a country plans to hike rates 4 times in a year then that currency will be bullish all year round. Central banks are the drivers of the market as investors want to keep their money in banks that can provide a return due to the interest rate.
...
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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Quoting XxixixX
{quote} LOL retail traders are looking at indicators lights on a chart for direction much like a bug is attracted to a bug zapper and we know how that goes . If you focus solely on fundamentals, you not looking at the whole picture, which at this point who is looking more like a retail trader? As I stated before, data can be the catalyst, however you need participants to move prices.
Sorry but I would rather look at the same thing the guys at hedgefunds are looking at because its them who move the markets with their billions not us mate!!!!!!
Imho, long term success in this business is based on strategic use of both fundamentals and technicals.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting Samson85
{quote} Sorry but I would rather look at the same thing the guys at hedgefunds are looking at because its them who move the markets with their billions not us mate!!!!!!
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Quoting KeenPips
Imho, long term success in this business is based on strategic use of both fundamentals and technicals. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Yes you need the technical s to help enter and exit trades. The fundamental is what sets the price direction in the long term
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Sorry but I would rather look at the same thing the guys at hedgefunds are looking at because its them who move the markets with their billions not us mate!!!!!!
I rather wait to see what they are doing first "A Elephant cannot hide it's Footsteps", otherwise you might end up like "Bear Stearns"
Quoting srt
{quote} ... {image} {image}
My point exactly
Too much argument without any help. We need real guide or real forecast about:

1. For next three months and next six months, what fundamental will drive the market for US dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, and Aussie?

2. What factors do we have to watch (or pick up) for setting up directional bias for long trade on Usd, or Eur, or Jpy, or Aud?

3. How can we spot an early movement due to fundamental shift for a new big trend in 2nd half of 2017 year?

4. What do hedge funds or big banks focus (or look ) at moment? Can we guess what they are doing? or where do they push the market to go in 2nd H of 2017?
Can we discuss US dollar first?

List of your arguments for long USD? Fundamental or technical or cycle or what ever?

List of your arguments for short USD? Fundamental or technical or cycle or what ever?

Friday, we go to Euro?

Next Monday, we go to Yen or Pound?
Quoting Jack168
Can we discuss US dollar first? List of your arguments for long USD? Fundamental or technical or cycle or what ever? List of your arguments for short USD? Fundamental or technical or cycle or what ever? Friday, we go to Euro? Next Monday, we go to Yen or Pound?
Here are a couple of ways I utilize in seeing sentiment:

1. Tracking the fundamental health trends of a currency by utilizing a spreadsheet that keeps tabs on major news events such as GDP, unemployment, CPI, etc. Interesting how the USD (brown line) economic news for the past couple of months has been trending lower.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2. COT Data is another source to look at when it comes to possible changes in Sentiment/Trends. It is based on Futures however they tend to trend in the same directions as foreign exchange. It is a weekly report that is delayed and contains a lot of information. I just focus on the Non-Commercials portion if they are adding or reducing their positions (long or short). For the past few months USD has been in a downtrend. The image below is a quick look at the sentiment for each currency.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-08-2017-12-04-23.png Size: 34 KB


Overall on the USD has some headwinds to work through before turning bullish, imho
There are lots of ways through which a trader can trade, but you need to have a better plan in Forex Trading if you wanna make some good money from it.
  • Post #318
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:35pm Aug 16, 2017 3:21pm | Edited at 3:35pm
In fundamental assessment of positive factors, USD should rise gradually:
1. Fed consistently hike in slow steps, which will bring up inflation expectation for next year. How many hikes will be in early of 2018 will be priced in? or be chased by the market in 2nd H of 2017?
2. USA GDP is growing and keep above 2% ?
3. USA stock market and capital market is health with increase yield and pressure.
4. USA is in early stage of bullish business cycle after big recession.
5. Others?
These basic positive drivers will support USD in long run when its cycle come in, it will jump.

In fundy negative factors,
1. Huge debt levels and huge military spending over its earning stream. Tax reform?
2. Stock market peak ?
3. Trump's intention of lower USD, and USA has capability for hidden currency war for devalue $. eg. 1st H of 2017, USD dollar weak is due to Trump's mouth.
4. Trump got trouble?
5. New war against China?
6. USA bond crash?
7. Others?

So, in this week or next week:
1. we need to focus on what trump say about USD?
2. what news about how many hike in early 2018? Fed say?
3. Geopolitical?
4. Bank forecast 4th Q or 2018?
5. USA stock market peak?
6. USA bond market? yield tumble or jump?
7. USD big support level on weekly, monthly chart?
  • Post #319
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:17am Aug 17, 2017 9:49am | Edited at 10:17am
Fundamental news/comments start to shake market on both ways. Let us to see who (bull/bear) take control USD flow?

1. Westpac
USD: Fundamental momentum backing right here - Westpac By Sandeep Kanihama
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-fu...c-201708171257

2. Economic Calendar, by Tim Clayton
ECB Policy Minutes: Concerns Over Possible Euro Over-Shoot
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692200

2A. By Kathleen Brooks. She is good?
Central bankers wrap: Inflation concerns the Fed, as the ECB 'intervenes' in euro
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ce...o-201708171239


3.
ECB Account of the Monetary Policy Meeting
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692191

4.
JPMorgan says market wrong, Fed is in play for December rate hike
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692196

5. this seem wrong?
Dovish FOMC minutes hit the dollar as gold rallies
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692117


5A.
The Fed Is Asking Questions, Not Providing Answers
It would be cause for concern if policy makers acted too confident. The economy is not following models.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...viding-answers


6.
Annual inflation stable at 1.3% in the euro area
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692177

7.
Global Economy Looks Set for a Year of Faster, Firmer Growth
https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=692116

8.
The Daily Prophet: Trump's Dollar Sending Some Worrisome Signals
Connecting the dots in global markets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...gnals-j6fh17lf

9.
Bank of England's Caution Is Justified. What Happens When It Isn't?
The textbooks would say to raise interest rates. Mark Carney is going off script.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...-when-it-isn-t

10. news about trump
Trump Did Something Good This Week
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...good-this-week

The Business of Fighting Trump
Here are your morning reads.

Trump's New China-Trade Mistake
He has a point on intellectual property. But his solution is misguided.

Standing Up to Trump Is Good for Business
Companies want stability and virtue-by-association. This president provides neither.
Quoting Fader123
Sentiment is institutional bias, and comes from fundamentals, typically derived from Geopolitical events (eg-Brexit, war, elections, heads of states speeches etc...) Economic cycle (recession/boom) Central banks/ers statements & speeches Commodities (dairy,iron ore,oil)- where applicable Effects from other countries (China's affects Australia, euro affects Swiss Franc) Sentiment changes as the above plays out However, changes in central bank bias towards interest rates will have a significant effect on the direction of a currency. Obviously its...

Hi Fader,

here I have a nice article for you, showing, that the central banks usually do not lead but simply follow the market:

http://www.socionomics.net/2014/03/a...deral-reserve/

Sometimes they can mainly lead with their words, as Draghi showed over the past years. But again and again, most of the times they simply follow the market.

But they also can badly surprise - remember the SNB when they lifted the peg with the EURO - 2000 pips in minutes LOL


Somewhere in my thread I have published a study, when I remember right, that stated, that most of the time, when a CB hiked or lowered the rates, the currency will over time follow that path it had before the action of the CB was performed.

Wish you all green pips and a good start into the week
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