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Quad Candle System

  • #981
  • Aug 10, 2017 4:31am Aug 10, 2017 4:31am
Quoting Masterrmind
Quads USDJPY [D1 Quad] {image} Gold [D1 Quad] {image} Do the appropriate analysis before trading. Masterrmind..........
Regarding the Gold, it seems a good setup but I see a double high pretty close to the actual price, so maybe it could rotate...also for the logic of the high-low, I would still expect a new low...what is your thought process in situation like this? Do you take in consideration high-low or you think it is a not relevant condition in QUAD/MML strategy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #982
  • Aug 10, 2017 4:36am Aug 10, 2017 4:36am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} Regarding the Gold, it seems a good setup but I see a double high pretty close to the actual price, so maybe it could rotate...also for the logic of the high-low, I would still expect a new low...what is your thought process in situation like this? Do you take in consideration high-low or you think it is a not relevant condition in QUAD/MML strategy? {image}
The place from where I would not exepct a new high is the red line ( the last low )....sorry the text is in a wrong position in the chart
  • #983
  • Aug 10, 2017 4:48am Aug 10, 2017 4:48am
@Eldero: May be a look at higher TFs could be helpful (weekly, monthly) - this Analysis can perhaps explain sometimes the Price Action at lower TFs ........... just a thought only ...........
  • #984
  • Aug 10, 2017 5:13am Aug 10, 2017 5:13am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} Regarding the Gold, it seems a good setup but I see a double high pretty close to the actual price, so maybe it could rotate...also for the logic of the high-low, I would still expect a new low...what is your thought process in situation like this? Do you take in consideration high-low or you think it is a not relevant condition in QUAD/MML strategy? {image}
Anything related to PA should be considered.

Its important to put a Quad pattern into the context of chart structure.

Swing highs and swing lows and the relationships between them should certainly be considered.

Confluence of multiple factors yields good results in general.

That break below the previous swing low level is an indication of caution.

Put the chart structure into context as much as possible with Gold and take note of USD general outlook.

When USD outlook is great Gold often drops and vice versa.

This is why I use MML.

Look where current price is in relation to the extremes.

Given that an entry is being contemplated where would the stop go and what is the reward to risk ratio?

Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #985
  • Aug 10, 2017 5:15am Aug 10, 2017 5:15am
Quoting DerBerliner
@Eldero: May be a look at higher TFs could be helpful (weekly, monthly) - this Analysis can perhaps explain sometimes the Price Action at lower TFs ........... just a thought only ...........
yes, sure...higher time frames are useful to have a clearer idea of where the price is. Thank you
  • #986
  • Aug 10, 2017 5:56am Aug 10, 2017 5:56am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Anything related to PA should be considered. Its important to put a Quad pattern into the context of chart structure. Swing highs and swing lows and the relationships between them should certainly be considered. Confluence of multiple factors yields good results in general. That break below the previous swing low level is an indication of caution. Put the chart structure into context as much as possible with Gold and take note of USD general outlook. When USD outlook is great Gold often drops and vice versa. This is why I use MML. Look where...
Very interesting... Thank you
Gold is correlated with usd and also with the DJ/DAX ( in oppposite direction )...usually when the indices are growing ( it often happen whit a strong usd ) the gold fall down...in the last weeks, unusually, the indices gained ground but also the gold. In those specifc days, I think the price of gold has been influenced from the weakness of USD and for that reason the correlation Indices/gold was not respected....in the very last days, indices are demonstrating a bit of weakness and USD a bit of strenght, but gold is going up, so it seems it is now mostly influenced from Indices...what will happen in the next days? It is very difficult to know, at least for me. But, I got the sense of your thought: it is important to know the reasons because a price can be influenced...it is a pleasure to follow your thread
  • #987
  • Aug 10, 2017 7:54am Aug 10, 2017 7:54am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} Very interesting... Thank you Gold is correlated with usd and also with the DJ/DAX ( in oppposite direction )...usually when the indices are growing ( it often happen whit a strong usd ) the gold fall down...in the last weeks, unusually, the indices gained ground but also the gold. In those specifc days, I think the price of gold has been influenced from the weakness of USD and for that reason the correlation Indices/gold was not respected....in the very last days, indices are demonstrating a bit of weakness and USD a bit of strenght,...
I suppose this is why I have not expanded upon the deep economic and fundamental analysis of currency, indices, cfds and commodity trading.

For one thing even the big hedge funds get it wrong more often than you might think.

Secondly it requires a separate thread to elaborate on fundamental analysis.

I've mentioned it here because it is very important to use some sentiment and fundamental analysis to form a bias on a traded symbol.

Just like the technical components what we seek to do is to get the fundamentals lined up and in confluence as much as possible with the technicals.

No symbol setup in trading will ever be perfect as perfection in any form of trading simply does not exist.

But as professional traders we should most definitely be seeking perfection in our trading in all areas so we can be the very best that we can be.

Good trading,

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #988
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:44am Aug 10, 2017 9:44am
Quoting OAPDave
I know I am on a different page to most of you guys, but here is my take on Gold, and yes the CCI is on to help my eyes, to me it quickens the process to scan from pair to pair, I am showing a Daily and then my 15min set to M,W & D in my way of doing things {image} {image} {image} {image}
So in which direction would you trade Gold and whereabouts on the chart would you make an entry, SL and TP.

Interesting charts.

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #989
  • Aug 10, 2017 6:52pm Aug 10, 2017 6:52pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} You might find this interesting, I am showing your fib rules but the are taken from Murrey level to Murrey level, the CCI tell me we are in a up trend {image} {image} {image}
A major issue with taking the fibs from MML lines is the danger of missing some of the price action in the candlestick charts.

Just know that fibs in general work better when clear high to low or low to high moves are used but any TF is applicable.

Larger TF fibs and then progressively lower TF fib drawing is very useful and powerful.

In the situation where price has made a clear reversal or move off an MML level then fibs can be applied including any confluence between different MML TFs.

Im pleased to hear that you are using the CCI as a guide only which is the right way and certainly never as the trigger for trade entry.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #990
  • Aug 10, 2017 8:31pm Aug 10, 2017 8:31pm
GBPNZD [Update]

Looking to add in Trade #3 to this GN setup.

The SLs of Trades #1 and #2 will need to be adjusted before the additional entry is made.

This has to be calculated based on the assigned risk%.

A suitable SL location for Trade 3 must also be chosen that is viable and makes sound logical sense.

This will also involve deciding if there is a suitable level in which the stops of Trades 1 and 2 can be placed (Chart structure/MML etc)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Notice the previous resistance levels on the chart off to the left side ... risk is that price could reverse again but how likely is this under current climate.
Its also the last trading day of the week so this should also be considered (likely weekend gap risk versus current SL location).

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #991
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:12pm Aug 10, 2017 9:12pm
Quoting Masterrmind
GBPNZD [Update] Looking to add in Trade #3 to this GN setup. The SLs of Trades #1 and #2 will need to be adjusted before the additional entry is made. This has to be calculated based on the assigned risk%. A suitable SL location for Trade 3 must also be chosen that is viable and makes sound logical sense. This will also involve deciding if there is a suitable level in which the stops of Trades 1 and 2 can be placed (Chart structure/MML etc) {image} Notice the previous resistance levels on the chart off to the left side ... risk is that price could...
GN

A quick look at where the stop for Trade 3 would go soon tells me how many pips I need to allocate.

A logical place for the stop of Trade 3 is just under a recent swing low or the 0/8 MML and from current price thats about 300 to 330 pips.

Given a total risk% across all open trades of 5% translates into about a maximum 750 pips (based on current equity level) as a total SL allocation.

Fairly quickly it becomes clear that even if I tighten up the stops on Trades 1 and 2 I might run out of the 750 pips for SL allocation rather quickly.

The current unadjusted numbers:

Trade 1 SL pips = 462.5 (US$33.56)

Trade 2 SL pips = 254.8 (US$18.50)

Trade 3 SL pips = ???

SL pips total = 750 pips (based on a 5% risk over all running trades)

SL pips currently available = 750 - 462.5 - 254.8 = +32.7 pips.

Trade 3 needs 300 to 330 and I have only 32.7 so I need to find another 270 to 300 pips from somewhere.

Options:
Move SL on Trade 1 up to -1/8 MML gaining about 122 pips.
Move SL on Trade 2 up to 0/8 MML gaining about 122 pips.

This frees up about 244 pips or an octive gap for Trade 3 SL allocation but I need 270 to 300 so I'm about 30 to 60 pips short of what I need.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Can I adjust the 2 stops up any tighter to give me the pips I need to open Trade 3 ?

If I tighten up the SL of Trade 1 to rest right on the lows in the katter part of July then its possible to get (only just) the required pips I need.

Ofcourse I could tighten the SL on Trade 1 so that it overlaps on top of Trade 2 SL but this is not how I want my stops (they should be staggered meaning that a reasonable sized gap should separate them).

The overlapping of stops for trades 1 and 2 is not really required since I can keep Trade 1 SL location slightly under that of Trade 2.

The big question now is whether or not I want to do this based on current climate, chance of a reversal and a potential weekend gap issue.

I welcome any opinions so feel free to post away.

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #992
  • Aug 10, 2017 9:39pm Aug 10, 2017 9:39pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} GN A quick look at where the stop for Trade 3 would go soon tells me how many pips I need to allocate. A logical place for the stop of Trade 3 is just under a recent swing low or the 0/8 MML and from current price thats about 300 to 330 pips. Given a total risk% across all open trades of 5% translates into about a maximum 750 pips (based on current equity level) as a total SL allocation. Fairly quickly it becomes clear that even if I tighten up the stops on Trades 1 and 2 I might run out of the 750 pips for SL allocation rather quickly....
This is the type of simple analysis that needs to be done prior to any additional trade entry in a given setup on a given symbol.

It is not difficult but it does become rather interesting when more and more trades are sought to be entered and you attempt to juggle all the SLs.

I've already made my decision on the GN pair.

Can you work out what I've decided to do and more importantly why ?

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #993
  • Aug 11, 2017 2:44am Aug 11, 2017 2:44am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} This is the type of simple analysis that needs to be done prior to any additional trade entry in a given setup on a given symbol. It is not difficult but it does become rather interesting when more and more trades are sought to be entered and you attempt to juggle all the SLs. I've already made my decision on the GN pair. Can you work out what I've decided to do and more importantly why ? Masterrmind............
I am afraid something is not working right with my MML level
I see in your chart that the octive gap is 244 pips but in my chart is just 122...
Maybe I have wrong parameters...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #994
  • Aug 11, 2017 2:55am Aug 11, 2017 2:55am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} This is the type of simple analysis that needs to be done prior to any additional trade entry in a given setup on a given symbol. It is not difficult but it does become rather interesting when more and more trades are sought to be entered and you attempt to juggle all the SLs. I've already made my decision on the GN pair. Can you work out what I've decided to do and more importantly why ? Masterrmind............
Leave well alone today being a Friday, although had a positive week last weeks high as not been broken, think this needs to be broken before adding more positions
  • #995
  • Aug 11, 2017 3:01am Aug 11, 2017 3:01am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} I am afraid something is not working right with my MML level I see in your chart that the octive gap is 244 pips but in my chart is just 122... Maybe I have wrong parameters... {image}
Thats interesting.

Perhaps try re-applying the template again and see if that fixes the problem.

Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #996
  • Aug 11, 2017 3:03am Aug 11, 2017 3:03am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Leave well alone today being a Friday, although had a positive week last weeks high as not been broken, think this needs to be broken before adding more positions
Agreed.

Add in the limited SL pips and the weekend gap and it makes sense to wait for price to push up higher through resistance level and reassess early next week.

Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #997
  • Aug 11, 2017 3:54am Aug 11, 2017 3:54am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Thats interesting. Perhaps try re-applying the template again and see if that fixes the problem. Masterrmind.........
I tried again, but the gap remains 122 pips...can we check with another pair?
For ex. USD-JPY I have 78,1 gap octive. Do you have the same?
  • #998
  • Aug 11, 2017 4:08am Aug 11, 2017 4:08am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} Things are going right with this pair and now I have 5 positions. teh last one added yesterday at the NY close Trade #1 stop @ +158 Trade #2 stop @ +128 Trade #3 stop @ +30 Trade #4 stop @ BE Trade #5 stop @ -52 At this moment I have blocked a profit of 264 pips. It's a good thing, because I have ever risked more than 130 pips. But 264 pips is a small gain to justify this kind of strategy. At this moment I am gaining 595 pips, so I should not be so happy to close everything with + 264. In any case, I am so happy to have risked max 130 pips...
I stopped adding positions, but lowered the stops of teh existing 5 trades

Trade #1 stop @ +186
Trade #2 stop @ +154
Trade #3 stop @ +58
Trade #4 stop @ +29
Trade # 5 stop @ -23

I have the same stop for all the positions at 120 pips from current price and with locked profit of 404 pips

I have to confess that I am tempted to close now with approx + 1000 pips, it would be a great result. But I am forcing myself to resist, because I want to respect my original plan that is follow the trend until it rotate, securing the most possible profit on the way...
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  • #999
  • Aug 11, 2017 4:18am Aug 11, 2017 4:18am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} I tried again, but the gap remains 122 pips...can we check with another pair? For ex. USD-JPY I have 78,1 gap octive. Do you have the same?
Not at my terminal now.

Perhaps another trader would be kind enough to give the UJ octive gap.

Masterrmind..........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #1,000
  • Aug 11, 2017 4:22am Aug 11, 2017 4:22am
Quoting Eldero
{quote} The trade #2 closed at BE ( unfortunately for a very few pips...). It's not a problem. It was a risk I accepted to add a position Trade #1 with stop @ +56 pips Trade #3 with stop @ -52 pips Now, price is going to the right direction. If today candle will close like now or better, I would probably add a position with the stop above the max of today candle and will move to BE the trade#3. I am not sure to do it, because the level of 0.7200/0.72200 could represent an area of a possible pullback... {image}
I added the 3rd trade yesterday at NY close

Now I have 3 positions

TRADE #1 stop @ +70
TRADE #2 stop @ BE
TRADE #3 stop @ - 85

At current price, I am with + 184 pips ( not bad, but not what I am looking for )
So, I accept to remain in the trades with the risk to close them with -15 pips but having the possibility to get a very large profit....let's see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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