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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #61
  • Sep 16, 2006 10:15am Sep 16, 2006 10:15am
well i tried this.. got some good pips with gbp/usd... but messed up by entering a trade just before the CPI on eur/usd.

the 2 lot trade seems to work.

thing is with the 2nd lot... maybe better to move it to BE point and then just leave it there.

close it out when you get a signal to take a trade the other way... or when you get stopped out at BE.
  • #62
  • Sep 16, 2006 11:19am Sep 16, 2006 11:19am
actually i have been thinking more about this.

I believe it would be better to keep the S/L of 2nd lot at B/E point. Do NOT trail it.

anyways i "wish" i was in the usd/chf long trade.

ah well there will always be another trade.

anyone got any ideas about how to adjust stops before major announcements?

also, if a possible trade happens like a day before a major annoucement should we just stay out of it until after?
  • #63
  • Sep 17, 2006 12:30am Sep 17, 2006 12:30am
Can someone make indicator to place UP/DOWN arrows on charts for this system ?
  • #64
  • Sep 17, 2006 12:47am Sep 17, 2006 12:47am
Quoting brainjt
LOOK et eurusd cross outside, but again down, I think in forex nthing is certainly, entry 2723 SL previous bar lows- failure,
but I think its no very often,
do you look for trend on weekly charts? was this trade ok key taken ?
Bj
I think the reason this trade was bad was because it was a highly volatile day on Friday with the CPI coming out, which everyone is watching now. It is important, especially when trading a purely technical system like this, to be aware of the major data releases, as they can and will affect the pair more than any technicals will.

Just my 2 cents,
andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #65
  • Sep 17, 2006 2:06am Sep 17, 2006 2:06am
Quoting kenari05
I thought as long as the RSI cross 8MA below middle band is valid.... i went long GU when i saw RSI crossed 8MA... if i dont enter market, i would have missed 150 pip trade....what a miss!
Hi kenari,

Crosses that occur while the current bar is still in play can also uncross leaving you with an entered trade when no signal now exists. Trying to anticipate signals for the purpose of not missing big moves will end up costing you in the long run because even though it may catch you a big move, it will also result in more losers which not only negate what you gained in the big move, but will put you in the negative as well. Trying to milk every last pip out of a trade is a good way to lose consistently.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #66
  • Sep 17, 2006 2:15am Sep 17, 2006 2:15am
fozzy, great thing you got together. I love everything that works on the slower time frames. FYI, there is a sell signal on EUR/AUD after the friday bar close. It's still ranging between 1.66 and 1.69, so there could be good room for a move down. Friday's bar was also a marginal bearish outside bar with a higher high and a lower low than thursday. Depending on the open, around 90 pip SL is needed.
Attached Image
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #67
  • Sep 17, 2006 5:57pm Sep 17, 2006 5:57pm
Quoting Yellow2
Hi Fozzy,

Quick question, do you monitor your trade and move your stops as price moves, or do you adjust stops at 0000 GMT after seeing how much the trade has moved.

Yellow
Hi Yellow2,

I have no set way of monitoring the charts. If I can I have a quick look at around London opening time and move stop/loss to breakeven if the move is more than 40 pips. If I cannot look at the charts at this time (usually due to my "real' job taking preference) I leave the trades and check again at 0000GMT. At that time I will move my stop/loss to breakeven or if, hopefully, the trade has moved a long way I will trail my stop by 25 pips and leave it alone.
As I said before, I am playing around with the idea of trading 2 lots (as mentioned by HAGeek) to see if this is a better way of locking in profits. This is still very much a work in progress. I find the exits the most difficult part to get right.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #68
  • Sep 18, 2006 4:54am Sep 18, 2006 4:54am
Well i did get a fozzy cross this morning gmt on cable it wasnt fuzzy but very clear. However the price dipped and the cross uncrossed stopping me out boo hoo.

i wonder how often this actually happens and of course this is why it is not possible to get a realistic picture by backtesting it is only by forward testing that you can get an accurate measure as to any cross system.

I did put on a short trade on swissie late last night to waken to a healthy profit though.

Happy trading
Trade what you see not what you think
  • #69
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:46am Sep 18, 2006 8:46am
Hello fozzy......

Thanks for starting a really great thread about a very interesting trading strategy...............and I appreciate your willingness to respectfully answer everyone's questions. I spent some time this past weekend applying your method to various currencies and time frames and I have a couple of questions based on your trading experience:

summitfx posted a 1 hour chart with your method showing how he earned a few pips on a smaller time frame. Have you tried your method on charts other than the daily? The four hour chart perhaps? (My research suggests this time frame would work well. S/L would be smaller, trades probably shorter, risk and exposure limited.) Is there any particular reason why you have limited your trading to just four currency pairs? Again, my research would suggest this method would work quite well with ALL pairs. And finally, any observations about the effect of BIG NEWS announcements on your startegy?
  • #70
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:57am Sep 18, 2006 8:57am
Quoting fozzy
Hi Yellow2,

I have no set way of monitoring the charts. If I can I have a quick look at around London opening time and move stop/loss to breakeven if the move is more than 40 pips. If I cannot look at the charts at this time (usually due to my "real' job taking preference) I leave the trades and check again at 0000GMT. At that time I will move my stop/loss to breakeven or if, hopefully, the trade has moved a long way I will trail my stop by 25 pips and leave it alone.
As I said before, I am playing around with the idea of trading 2 lots (as mentioned by HAGeek) to see if this is a better way of locking in profits. This is still very much a work in progress. I find the exits the most difficult part to get right.

Cheers

Fozzy
Someone gave me this EA here a long time ago to manage your orders once you place them. I don't know if this particular one will be of value to you or not.

Jason
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ManageTakeProfit2.mq4   8 KB | 1,746 downloads
  • #71
  • Sep 18, 2006 10:07am Sep 18, 2006 10:07am
Hello pingpong....

I traded the usd/chf short also, but I didn't get a valid cross on the gbp/usd before today's opening. Can you post a chart or explain further? Thanks!


Quoting pingpong
Well i did get a fozzy cross this morning gmt on cable it wasnt fuzzy but very clear. However the price dipped and the cross uncrossed stopping me out boo hoo.

i wonder how often this actually happens and of course this is why it is not possible to get a realistic picture by backtesting it is only by forward testing that you can get an accurate measure as to any cross system.

I did put on a short trade on swissie late last night to waken to a healthy profit though.

Happy trading
  • #72
  • Sep 18, 2006 10:19am Sep 18, 2006 10:19am
Hi All!,

Just my two pips here, but may I suggest everyone look at Fozzy's post #52 again, and my comments in post #65.

A cross ain't a cross until the fat lady sings. The bar that completes the cross must close and entry is made on the following bar's open.

Might miss some pips, but avoids having a trade entered when no cross exists.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #73
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:27pm Sep 18, 2006 6:27pm
Quoting BeachBum
Hello fozzy......

Thanks for starting a really great thread about a very interesting trading strategy...............and I appreciate your willingness to respectfully answer everyone's questions. I spent some time this past weekend applying your method to various currencies and time frames and I have a couple of questions based on your trading experience:

summitfx posted a 1 hour chart with your method showing how he earned a few pips on a smaller time frame. Have you tried your method on charts other than the daily? The four hour chart perhaps? (My research suggests this time frame would work well. S/L would be smaller, trades probably shorter, risk and exposure limited.) Is there any particular reason why you have limited your trading to just four currency pairs? Again, my research would suggest this method would work quite well with ALL pairs. And finally, any observations about the effect of BIG NEWS announcements on your startegy?
Hi BeachBum,
I haven't tried this method on shorter timeframes primarily because of the timezone I am in. The major trading activity (i.e. London & NY trading) occurs from 5pm to 2am Australian time. During this time I do not have the ability to sit in front of charts analysing potential trades. I have previously tried trading shorter timeframes (1hr & 4hr) but due to wanting to spend time with my family I found it just didn't suit me. Also I discovered I was incapable of making sensible trading decisions at midnight. My brain tends to fog over by then. Monitoring charts for 10 minutes a day at 7.30am is far more acceptable.
I am actually trading this system live (using a mini account) and have a limited capital base. I do monitor other pairs but am restricted to how many I can trade at once. I have found that the setup will occur at similar times on multiple pairs and I have to be selective of where I allocate my capital. The 4 major pairs have been very reliable with this system and that's why I chose them. When (hopefully) my account grows I will certainly look at other pairs.
As with all trading methods, you will win some and lose some. The recent news announcement took out my stop/loss and for me re-inforced the need to pay more attention to upcoming calendar events. Trading is a constant learning experience and I certainly learned from that trade.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #74
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:30pm Sep 18, 2006 6:30pm
Quoting diallist
Hi All!,


A cross ain't a cross until the fat lady sings. The bar that completes the cross must close and entry is made on the following bar's open.

Might miss some pips, but avoids having a trade entered when no cross exists.

Dial
Hi Dial,
I wish I had your ability to succintly sum up the situation.

Many thanks

Fozzy
  • #75
  • Sep 18, 2006 6:31pm Sep 18, 2006 6:31pm
i would have to say that 75% of my losses were due to not paying attention to market annoucements... or tightening my S/L before hand.

currently long on eur/usd daily and short usd/chf.

~30 pips profit on each one.
  • #76
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:39pm Sep 18, 2006 8:39pm
Quoting HAGeek
i would have to say that 75% of my losses were due to not paying attention to market annoucements... or tightening my S/L before hand.

currently long on eur/usd daily and short usd/chf.

~30 pips profit on each one.
Took the same trades on the opening of new candles at 5pm EST.
HAGeek, where is your stops? And what is your targets if you have ones?
  • #77
  • Sep 19, 2006 1:41am Sep 19, 2006 1:41am
Does anyone want to try with this indicator? I looked at Fozzy system with this indicator briefly, though, do I am not sure would it be helpful in a long run, maybe you guys want to try it. It goes into chart window and helps to prevent few bad trades. When the RSI and MA cross goes against indicator's color, don't take a trade. And visa versus, if indicator's color confirms the trade, then it is OK to trade.

Hope it helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 FX_Sniper's_LSMA.mq4   3 KB | 1,943 downloads
  • #78
  • Sep 19, 2006 4:54am Sep 19, 2006 4:54am
what is RR period for 1 daily charts? and other setups?
Thx
BJ
  • #79
  • Sep 19, 2006 5:32am Sep 19, 2006 5:32am
Quoting lietuve
Does anyone want to try with this indicator? I looked at Fozzy system with this indicator briefly, though, do I am not sure would it be helpful in a long run, maybe you guys want to try it. It goes into chart window and helps to prevent few bad trades. When the RSI and MA cross goes against indicator's color, don't take a trade. And visa versus, if indicator's color confirms the trade, then it is OK to trade.

Hope it helps.
have u tried this on H1 chart? i tried it with EU, made 60pips...i sold EU at new bar open when RSI cross MA and at the same time LSMA turns red...
{Link Removed}]
  • #80
  • Sep 19, 2006 7:45am Sep 19, 2006 7:45am
Hello fozzy...........

Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions!


Quoting fozzy
Hi BeachBum,
I haven't tried this method on shorter timeframes primarily because of the timezone I am in. The major trading activity (i.e. London & NY trading) occurs from 5pm to 2am Australian time. During this time I do not have the ability to sit in front of charts analysing potential trades. I have previously tried trading shorter timeframes (1hr & 4hr) but due to wanting to spend time with my family I found it just didn't suit me. Also I discovered I was incapable of making sensible trading decisions at midnight. My brain tends to fog over by then. Monitoring charts for 10 minutes a day at 7.30am is far more acceptable.
I am actually trading this system live (using a mini account) and have a limited capital base. I do monitor other pairs but am restricted to how many I can trade at once. I have found that the setup will occur at similar times on multiple pairs and I have to be selective of where I allocate my capital. The 4 major pairs have been very reliable with this system and that's why I chose them. When (hopefully) my account grows I will certainly look at other pairs.
As with all trading methods, you will win some and lose some. The recent news announcement took out my stop/loss and for me re-inforced the need to pay more attention to upcoming calendar events. Trading is a constant learning experience and I certainly learned from that trade.

Cheers

Fozzy
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