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The Rabbit Hole

  • #7,981
  • Aug 9, 2017 7:54am Aug 9, 2017 7:54am
Quoting Magog
{quote} I read something this week saying the Fed can't ever raise rates in a meaningful way bcof the debt, amongst other things.
BOE has a similar problem and the longer they don't address it the worse it will get. BOE needs treasury to end austerity and instigate a program of heavy investment into infrastructure so that the country can grow its way out of the debt mountain held by people borrowing to offset their negligible pay rises combined crappy zero hours jobs...
  • #7,982
  • Edited 9:02am Aug 9, 2017 8:12am | Edited 9:02am
The deficit is more important than the debt going forward.

If the deficit is below GDP growth then over time the debt as a % of GDP will decline.

Also if deficit is lower than the average deficit over the course of when the debt was built up, say 30 year period, then over time the debt will reduce as well.

If both the US and the UK can get the deficit below GDP growth these problems will disappear over a decade or so.
  • #7,983
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:15am Aug 9, 2017 8:15am
Quoting Magog
{quote} I read something this week saying the Fed can't ever raise rates in a meaningful way bcof the debt, amongst other things.

I would agree with Verve's statement on the deficit vs. GDP growth will determine future decisions by the FED. The debt is an entire different matter because like Verve suggests it is managed over a longer period of time. However that being said, it could be an issue when the debt ceiling vote has to be decided to raising again which is looming soon after congress returns from recess. Trump may make it an issue to use as leverage against house republicans as a way to get them to vote on a health care law, which could be a fight in the making.
  • #7,984
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:18am Aug 9, 2017 8:18am
Quoting verv
The deficit is more important than the debt going forward. If the deficit is below GDP growth then over time the debt as a % of GDP will decline. Also if deficit is lower than the average deficit over the course of wheb the debt was built up, say 30 year period, then over time the debt will reduce to. If both the US and the UK can get the deficit below GDP growth these problems will disappear over a decade or so.
And there-in is the problem with austerity programs. They have a nasty habit of shrinking the GDP or at the very least stifling GDP growth and thereby exacerbating the compromised ratio making the process of growing out of such situations much harder and significantly more elongated than programs of targeted investment designed to be GDP stimulative rather than constrictive.
  • #7,985
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:21am Aug 9, 2017 8:21am
Quoting nbfx
More to my taste... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXCYeGovsOw&list=PL-FaA4k7UdNZRipzTZ9ibBo3BcMCf_qzP
Absolutely!
  • #7,986
  • Edited 9:46am Aug 9, 2017 8:25am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting Magog
{quote} Ahhh at last - think we might be making progress with your education Jen.
Ok brains, work these out.

Attached Image

What is the area shaded purple?

Attached Image

What is the radius of each circle? They are all the same and the points are all touching.
  • #7,987
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:36am Aug 9, 2017 8:36am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I think I have the ability to smell cancer. They have dogs do it, but some humans can as well. I have a very sensitive nose and I get called a bloodhound, lol. Cancer has a very distinctive smell and is often present years, sometimes decades, before a diagnosis. It is a sweet, sickly, rotting flesh smell.
People with persistent chest infections have the same smell.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7,988
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:37am Aug 9, 2017 8:37am
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} I have! Been watching like a hawk! Bellicose words as the saying goes, so does the safe havens flows. Yen dramatically picked up steam recently, we will see how far it goes! One thing I am looking for is when the dollar starts to strengthen, and when it does Gold begins to sell off. It seems like it will keep going so long as rumors of war persists. Feds maybe looking to hike rates again and catch everybody off guard. When that happens, I will be watching gold prices!
The talk has done wonders for PHGP, up the biggest lift since I bought the other week (acks to Magog)
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7,989
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:41am Aug 9, 2017 8:41am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} BOE has a similar problem and the longer they don't address it the worse it will get. BOE needs treasury to end austerity and instigate a program of heavy investment into infrastructure so that the country can grow its way out of the debt mountain held by people borrowing to offset their negligible pay rises combined crappy zero hours jobs...
There was the recent announcement of rail infrastructure spending. I think the BoE should put rates back to 0.5%, don't understand why they thought it necessary to drop after the Brexit vote. I fear some government interventionist twat will start meddling and do a Greenspan on us.

Quoting nbfx
{quote} And there-in is the problem with austerity programs. They have a nasty habit of shrinking the GDP or at the very least stifling GDP growth and thereby exacerbating the compromised ratio making the process of growing out of such situations much harder and significantly more elongated than programs of targeted investment designed to be GDP stimulative rather than constrictive.
Back in 2008 there should have been some public hangings, eg Fred the Shred, and some stupid financial companies allowed to follow Lehman Bros down the tube with the BoE protecting only the UK depositors monies. Unfortunately, back then, the FSCS compensation limit was a paltry £2k so they were stuffed.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7,990
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:52am Aug 9, 2017 8:52am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} People with persistent chest infections have the same smell.
No they don't. They don't have the rotting meat smell, just the sickly sweet bit.
  • #7,991
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:04am Aug 9, 2017 9:04am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Ok brains, work these out. {image} What is the area shaded purple? {image}
0.666666(7)
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7,992
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:05am Aug 9, 2017 9:05am
And this - love a bit of Thomas Tallis, or William Byrd, Henry Purcell or John Blow. That period from circa 1500 to circa 1700 could be considered something of a Golden Era for English Choral Music...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT-ZAAi4UQQ
  • #7,993
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:09am Aug 9, 2017 9:09am
After the incident of Bob Mackenzie lumping (allegedly) another of the AA board members......
The share price crashed, and Neil Woodford et co. bought another 1% of the company.
Similarly a hedge fund that was short the AA (GLG ? ) increased its short to 1.5% of issued shares.
Where will the hedge fund be getting out?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20170809_AA_4hr.png Size: 58 KB
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #7,994
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:12am Aug 9, 2017 9:12am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} And there-in is the problem with austerity programs. They have a nasty habit of shrinking the GDP or at the very least stifling GDP growth and thereby exacerbating the compromised ratio making the process of growing out of such situations much harder and significantly more elongated than programs of targeted investment designed to be GDP stimulative rather than constrictive.
There is an argument to be made for the expansion of government spending to smooth out recessions, however I'm not sure how realistic that is when the deficit runs at 10% of GDP in the aftermath of 2008, when debt is at 80% of GDP, and when government spending routinely exceeds 40% of GDP? All of these things were already high, and it didn't look like there were many easy choices.

Ultimately the choice is do you take some of the pain now with austerity, or some of the pain later by taking on debt now. There are only two (realistic) ways government can pay that debt, shrink the size of government but keep taxes the same, or keep the government the same size but increase taxes. You have to take your medicine at some point, the only real choice we have is when.
  • #7,995
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:14am Aug 9, 2017 9:14am
And Bach's Brandenburg Concertos are the epitome of Baroque at its finest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbQORqkStpk
  • #7,996
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:33am Aug 9, 2017 9:33am
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} I would agree with Verve's statement on the deficit vs. GDP growth will determine future decisions by the FED. The debt is an entire different matter because like Verve suggests it is managed over a longer period of time. However that being said, it could be an issue when the debt ceiling vote has to be decided to raising again which is looming soon after congress returns from recess. Trump may make it an issue to use as leverage against house republicans as a way to get them to vote on a health care law, which could be a fight in the making....
Yeah that was part of the ''amongst other things'' - Basically the debt was also increasing bc no-one is buying treasuries which is a sort of feedback loop.
And as for GDP growing - if you account for inflation we been in recession since 08.
This is above my pay grade - so don't really understand it all
Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence
  • #7,997
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:39am Aug 9, 2017 9:39am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} The talk has done wonders for PHGP, up the biggest lift since I bought the other week (acks to Magog)

And they there is no manipulation going on behind closed doors? Just par for the course I suppose! We will see in the coming days where this talk leads us to.
  • #7,998
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:44am Aug 9, 2017 9:44am
Quoting Magog
{quote} Yeah that was part of the ''amongst other things'' - Basically the debt was also increasing bc no-one is buying treasuries which is a sort of feedback loop. And as for GDP growing - if you account for inflation we been in recession since 08. This is above my pay grade - so don't really understand it all
Yes, especially where the GDP was 20 years ago at 8 to 9% for the worlds largest economy, there seems to be the precedent that Trump wants to get back to that figure ONCE again. That lovely thing called Globalism that contributed to shrinking that number!
  • #7,999
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:46am Aug 9, 2017 9:46am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} 0.666666(7)
Very good. I got it too. And the other one?
  • #8,000
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:49am Aug 9, 2017 9:49am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Very good. I got it too. And the other one?
How come I thought it was 1
Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence
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