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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

  • #1,641
  • Edited 12:59am Aug 3, 2017 12:42am | Edited 12:59am
Quoting rudy5
I got filled on a buy limit today. Had to do other things though so I put on a 5 pip trailing sl. I think I'm getting close to the point where I start trading for income and it's making me kinda nervous. Not that I currently need the income from it or doubt myself, but theres still that "what if I fail - again" question {image}
BTW, one thing I'd say about your UJ trade, the original T/P, which I would call a "structural" T/P, i.e. set in accordance with the market structure to the left, was exactly where I would've put it. Good trade to journal
  • #1,642
  • Aug 3, 2017 1:56am Aug 3, 2017 1:56am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} T/P @ 130.92
Nice one - I missed the early Asian retest opportunity...
  • #1,643
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:35am Aug 3, 2017 2:35am
Quoting Hanuman
{quote} Nice one - I missed the early Asian retest opportunity...
It's testing quite an interesting historic supply on the W1/D1. Will be keeping an eye on Daily closes for any bearish signs.

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  • #1,644
  • Aug 3, 2017 2:39am Aug 3, 2017 2:39am
@Rudy

I think I just realised why occasionally the price scale on some charts looks bigger. Sometimes I screen grab the chart to annotate, other times I just save the chart as a picture in MT4. Difference seems to lie there.
  • #1,645
  • Edited 8:23am Aug 3, 2017 5:41am | Edited 8:23am
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This was just based off location and the fact AU looked like it had been ranging. So I figured it would be a moderately safe entry back up into the chop. I'd had my eye on the level for a few days.
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  • #1,646
  • Aug 3, 2017 6:41am Aug 3, 2017 6:41am
Nice reaction on GBPUSD! Will definitely be watching for a retest up there
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  • #1,647
  • Edited 8:17pm Aug 5, 2017 7:30pm | Edited 8:17pm
USDCHF Buying
The background of USDCHF demonstrated a willingness to buy on the back of a bullish engulfing Weekly candle. Marking up what is only obvious in hindsight.

H1
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  • #1,648
  • Aug 6, 2017 2:06am Aug 6, 2017 2:06am
Quoting Causation
USDCHF Buying The background of USDCHF demonstrated a willingness to buy on the back of a bullish engulfing Weekly candle. Marking up what is only obvious in hindsight. H1 {image}
Good one.

Daily looks quite interesting too.

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  • #1,649
  • Aug 6, 2017 9:02am Aug 6, 2017 9:02am
Quoting rudy5
Nice reaction on GBPUSD! Will definitely be watching for a retest up there {image}
Had a couple of days away from the charts last week. Back to (a basic multi-TF) analysis...

Until that W1 is breached, this pair is down for me on W1 but I think we have to consider this S/R. Price has accumulated there and left a demand zone:

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Switching to Daily I see this scenario. As long as the market doesn't gap above 1.3268'ish on tonight's open we'll have fresh Daily supply. It all now really depends on how price reacts at these various zones.

It's in a bit of no-man's land on Daily, but for me, technically D1 direction is Up. That doesn't mean to say I wouldn't sell it though. A retest of that supply (if it prints on the open) may give a nice double-top type entry for shorts. Price may not, however, test supply at all and instead meander down to test these demands. At that point, depending on how it reacts, I would consider buying.

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  • #1,650
  • Aug 6, 2017 9:56am Aug 6, 2017 9:56am
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Focus
  • #1,651
  • Aug 6, 2017 11:24am Aug 6, 2017 11:24am
Quoting mrstblefx
{image}
Yea I'd noticed the Oz sentiment on FF was short. Probably a good time to start buying it

The only observation I have re Oz (I do trade this pair, mainly on M15) is the following:

W1

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This is the third week it's been at historic supply and although we do have a bearish candle, this by itself isn't a signal to short my side.

In these situations we do sometimes see clues in lower TFs. When trying to analyse W1, D1 would be the lowest I'd go:

D1

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There's nothing in this PA that compels me to sell. It could easily rally from here.

I'll just keep trading it on M15 for now. Let's see how Daily plays out this coming week.
  • #1,652
  • Aug 6, 2017 5:01pm Aug 6, 2017 5:01pm
For day trading, what, in your opinion, constitutes a reliable way of exit for profitable trading?

1. Some structual opposite in the time frame you entered.
2. A fixed minimum ratio of reward to risk. With some variability and discretion goven towards pair volatility.
3. A variation of 1. in which some profit e.g. 1/3 or 2/3 is taken at an immediate opposite support/resistance, and remainder left to run in context of higher time frames.
4. Some combination of either or all of above.
5. Something else?
  • #1,653
  • Aug 7, 2017 2:53am Aug 7, 2017 2:53am
Quoting Causation
For day trading, what, in your opinion, constitutes a reliable way of exit for profitable trading? 1. Some structual opposite in the time frame you entered. 2. A fixed minimum ratio of reward to risk. With some variability and discretion goven towards pair volatility. 3. A variation of 1. in which some profit e.g. 1/3 or 2/3 is taken at an immediate opposite support/resistance, and remainder left to run in context of higher time frames. 4. Some combination of either or all of above. 5. Something else?
Ideally, your option 3 makes most sense to me because when I enter a trade there is usually some structure to the left that I can reference for exit. That structure will be either S/R or an opposing untested SD zone. In an ideal world I would take 1/3 off at S/R, 1/3 off at SD, then expand the stop behind fresh structure for the remaining 1/3.

Whichever method one employs, I have to say that it's very important to take 2R from the market otherwise trading's not worth the effort. Having said that, it's equally important not to rush out at 2R when the market's clearly offering 4R for example. That aspect of trade management is a balancing act and I think getting it right is more down to experience than anything else.
  • #1,654
  • Aug 9, 2017 12:10am Aug 9, 2017 12:10am
I'm curious, is the H4 trend up or down?

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  • #1,655
  • Aug 9, 2017 12:30am Aug 9, 2017 12:30am
Quoting simond2002
I'm curious, is the H4 trend up or down? {image}
I'd say down since the break of this level...

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  • #1,656
  • Aug 9, 2017 12:30am Aug 9, 2017 12:30am
Made this post regarding Gold yesterday on the VSA thread. Don't want to pollute malcom's work so will tie the post in with my own comments here.

VSA I think is quite interesting - especially in slow markets when the mind can wander. I like the way it's being put to use and it does clearly offer trading signals. Yesterday, however, the thing I learned watching Gold (a pair I don't trade) is that patience and SR/SD is still quite enough to draw ample data out of the market to generate a signal.

At the time of the above post my stated view on Gold was that it was long and in fact a short would be contra that direction. Having said that, a signal is a signal, even when it trumps directional view because at some point, markets always turn. malcolm's signal combined with some basic SR/SD gave a huge trade, although I have to say, for me, the signal was still based solely on SR/SD. After Gold dumped it put in a typical market behaviour with re-accumulation creating demand and a retest for continued a move back up.

The moral of the story? As much as VSA presents an interesting viewpoint on the market, for me, the goal is still achieved using basic SR/SD principles and patience.

M15 chart for reference:

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  • #1,657
  • Aug 9, 2017 12:49am Aug 9, 2017 12:49am
Good morning traders.

I've been doing this on 1h htf because I was busy.

Just exited UJ short ride,over 1300 euros profit live trading.

My combination was very simple:
Daily timeframe with 1h timeframe.
Always using Daily S/D as direction and 1h to enter on low risk entries with P.O

I open my charts 40min daily before the beginning of the new daily candle,set p.o on s/d level and close the chart till the next day is over.

The results were amazing.
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  • #1,658
  • Aug 9, 2017 1:00am Aug 9, 2017 1:00am
Quoting timos
Good morning traders. I've been doing this on 1h htf because I was busy. Just exited UJ short ride,over 1300 euros profit live trading. My combination was very simple: Daily timeframe with 1h timeframe. Always using Daily S/D as direction and 1h to enter on low risk entries with P.O I open my charts 40min daily before the beginning of the new daily candle,set p.o on s/d level and close the chart till the next day is over. The results were amazing. {image} {image}
Nice to see you've finally gotten off those tick charts
  • #1,659
  • Aug 9, 2017 1:08am Aug 9, 2017 1:08am
Quoting Hanuman
{quote} I'd say down since the break of this level... {image}
Yea, I'd agree - direction at this point I would have as down due to the reason you gave.

Until those two lower demands have been taken out, however, overall H4 "trend", for me is still up. If I was shorting LTFs those demands are targets.

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  • #1,660
  • Aug 9, 2017 1:21am Aug 9, 2017 1:21am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Yea, I'd agree - direction at this point I would have as down due to the reason you gave. Until those two lower demands have been taken out, however, overall H4 "trend", for me is still up. If I was shorting LTFs those demands are targets. {image}
Fully agree - good areas for short targets and also to watch for possible bounce up...
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