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  • #201
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:26am Aug 9, 2017 2:26am
Quoting synicz
"N.Korea seriously considering a strike on Guam" This was the headline I woke up to. It certainly had an impact on the markets, especially carry trades currencies. My carry position took a real dive overnight. On closer inspection I realised that yen and swiss franc gained. My interpretation of this is that markets are going towards a risk-off sentiment. Long or short term is yet to be known. Fader123. I guess now is the best time to short currencies such as nzd. Although I would pair it up with alternative safe-haven currencies other than usd....
Thanks for alerting us as soon as you saw the headline. Could've benefited a few of us who were disconnected from the news at that moment.
  • #202
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:10am Aug 9, 2017 5:10am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} You mean "bad bet" for carry trades?Well, for long-term carry trades, this risk-off moves are supposed to cause the relatively little pullbacks, right? Though I think the world is in a very risk-off environment right now... but the maybe the markets could become very used to it pretty soon.
Yeap, that was exactly what I meant.

Well from my understanding, carry trades works until traders start deleveraging/taking profits. As it might spark a chain reaction. Take a look at typical carry trade crosses such as AudJpy. You will notice a pattern whereby Aud tends to gain against the yen, but once markets become risk adverse and investors start deleveraging, the drop in prices are scarily fast.

I would quite strongly disagree that global investors sentiment are risk-off right now. My evidences cited is the S&P500 VIX index at a level pre 2008 financial crisis, S&P500 continuously breaking record highs, low gold prices (subjective), rising us interest rate and expectation of qe tapering in us and eu, blind confidence in bitcoin and friends (very subjective).
Yes we have a few hiccups here and there, such as brexit and trump, and more recently N.Korea. But hey! The global economy is still at these "risk on levels".

IMO, as long as the geo-political tensions do not escalate to actual physical conflict (read: war), every dip is an buying opportunity. As markets will eventually look past the rhetorics and focus on the economy.
With that being said, we can never be too sure. Idk what goes on in the head of these loonies, there seems to be a real probability of war. Which may lead markets to switch to a risk-adverse mode in an instant.

Phew that was an essay!
You're welcomed, I just need an avenue to talk about my thoughts! It gets lonely when almost nobody around you does economics/finance
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #203
  • Aug 9, 2017 7:17am Aug 9, 2017 7:17am
We certainly have a risk off tone at the moment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-markets-wrap

The question is how long it will last
There seems to be some moves to de-esclate things
So let's see
  • #204
  • Aug 9, 2017 7:48am Aug 9, 2017 7:48am
I would like to revise my earlier post regarding the risk-on/off sentiment.

Yes markets are turning risk adverse in the short term. But the overall long term sentiment is still risk-on.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #205
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:45am Aug 9, 2017 8:45am
Quoting synicz
I would like to revise my earlier post regarding the risk-on/off sentiment. Yes markets are turning risk adverse in the short term. But the overall long term sentiment is still risk-on.
Well said.
Also, with ("normally pessimistic") Central banks signaling intentions to move towards policy normalization now, there seems to be satisfaction with the where the global economy is headed.
However, politically/diplomatically, the world seems to be in a very uneasy place. And I think this dynamic is going to continue for the long term too.
  • #206
  • Aug 9, 2017 11:21am Aug 9, 2017 11:21am
Just checked the USDJPY rebounded
That's why I don't really trade them
Must confess though took a small trade last night when the news came out
  • #207
  • Aug 9, 2017 11:26am Aug 9, 2017 11:26am
Thanks guys for the input on everything, it's certainly livened up the thread

There are going to be some decent opportunities over the next week.

One thing though, I am off on holiday for about a week
  • #208
  • Edited 3:45pm Aug 9, 2017 3:34pm | Edited 3:45pm
Its the general tone that matters
McDermott's recent speech was dovish.
Inflation expectations lower
Higher Kiwi affecting exports.
But kiwi has drifted back
Grant Spencer takes over.
Will he go for it though, that is the question.
He saw what happened the last time.
Surely he wont want that to happen.
On balance you'd have to say he should be dovish
And he would have a reason to be.
Think that market is generally expecting a dovish statement
So he is going to need to pull out the bag a bit.
Better off waiting to see what he says
  • #209
  • Aug 9, 2017 3:53pm Aug 9, 2017 3:53pm
hey everyone, I'm new to the thread. Just getting up to speed with trading my fundamentals. SOOO GLAD to find this thread. you must excuse my, sometimes, silly questions in advance.

happy trading.......
  • #210
  • Aug 9, 2017 4:43pm Aug 9, 2017 4:43pm
Quoting Fader123
Its the general tone that matters McDermott's recent speech was dovish. Inflation expectations lower Higher Kiwi affecting exports. But kiwi has drifted back Grant Spencer takes over. Will he go for it though, that is the question. He saw what happened the last time. Surely he wont want that to happen. On balance you'd have to say he should be dovish And he would have a reason to be. Think that market is generally expecting a dovish statement So he is going to need to pull out the bag a bit. Better off waiting to see what he says
Were you in the positive pips for that NK geo political trade you took last night? I was sleeping and missed it. Where do you get all your fundamental news from? Do you use a sqwauk service or anything?
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #211
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:00pm Aug 9, 2017 5:00pm
Got about 40 pips, really should have got more but got distracted
There are a few squawk services
I really like Trade the News, but they can be a bit funny if you are trying to log on from somewhere else
The others are Ransquawk, and LiveSquawk
Ransquawk is ok
Not really a fan a Talking Forex-- I think its meant to be part of Trade the News, I just prefer the original
You can get it free though on Fx Pro
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  • #212
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:07pm Aug 9, 2017 5:07pm
Quoting Fader123
Got about 40 pips, really should have got more but got distracted There are a few squawk services I really like Trade the News, but they can be a bit funny if you are trying to log on from someone else The others are Ransquawk, and LiveSquawk Ransquawk is ok Not really a fan a Talking Forex- you can get it free though on Fx Pro {image}
Nice! I started using FXpro after they updated their sqwauk, I didn't like the old version. I stay on Forexlive as well, those guys are usually spot on with their info and quick to the point. No long drawn out chunky posts or anything for the most part.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #213
  • Aug 9, 2017 5:17pm Aug 9, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} Nice! I started using FXpro after they updated their sqwauk, I didn't like the old version. I stay on Forexlive as well, those guys are usually spot on with their info and quick to the point. No long drawn out chunky posts or anything for the most part.
They are pretty good. I used to trade their bank orders if there was no news.
To be honest if you know what is likely to happen you can trade the sentiment into an event
Even just concentrate on the headlines.
For instance the German election will be coming up.
Any big announcement by the anti Europe party- that hits the front pages of Reuters and Bloomberg and the Euro will be coming off that day
  • #214
  • Aug 9, 2017 6:02pm Aug 9, 2017 6:02pm
For those who are interested in starting to learn fundamentals, heads up, its not going to be easy. But its worth it.
Once learnt, you will start to understand why prices move. Why sometimes markets react contrary to news reports. You will also be in a better position to make a high probability guess on where prices will go next.

Have you ever wondered why large institutions still talk fundamentals if all that anyone needs to trade are technical analysis? Do you believe that you can discover some magic pattern/signal that institutions whom spends millions on R&D cant? I wont discredit technical analysis as there are some merits to them, but i will strongly discourage reliance on solely one form of analysis.

You've heard the good things about fundamentals.
The bad news is that it takes ALOT of effort to learn and understand. Especially if you have no former economics/finance background.

We have many themes and news report to watch. Economic data such as gdp, policies such as interest rates decision, geo-political interactions, even what world leaders say can have an effect on the markets. There is a reason why these world leaders are touted as the most powerful men/women in their country/world.

IMO, your best bet is to start from scratch by learning variable by variable, factor by factor. And start to look for situations where markets focuses on these factors. Although not neccessary, learning basic economics will help loads. You will see why certain central members do what they do. And realise certain assumptions in economic models which are unrealistic in the real world, that is where you can take advantage of the discrepancy.

Finally, another good news is that if you are confused about why markets move now, or you cant seem to find an explanation for price movements. Do not worry. News reports will always tell you why! Although by time they are posted, a large chunk of the move will already have taken place. This is why you hear lots of stories about fake news etc. The news aren't fake, they are simply delayed. You must decide if the news you are reading still has value by the time it reaches you.

I hope to spur more conversation on this thread and forum on fundamental topics instead of seeing so much technical discussions!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #215
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:44pm Aug 9, 2017 9:44pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} They are pretty good. I used to trade their bank orders if there was no news. To be honest if you know what is likely to happen you can trade the sentiment into an event Even just concentrate on the headlines. For instance the German election will be coming up. Any big announcement by the anti Europe party- that hits the front pages of Reuters and Bloomberg and the Euro will be coming off that day
I did well when trump won the election, got smacked a little with brexit and france though. What is your expectations for the upcoming German election?
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #216
  • Aug 9, 2017 9:51pm Aug 9, 2017 9:51pm
ISM Services/Manufacturing both showed rising prices indexes, so I am going to short the EURUSD and bet the PPI will beat expectations tomorrow. But I feel CPI will disappoint on Friday, and EURUSD will continue it's bull trend to 1.20.
  • #217
  • Aug 9, 2017 11:28pm Aug 9, 2017 11:28pm
I just kind of felt it in my bones that the post rate announcement spike was a good opportunity to get in short NZD on the rally... suspecting strongly that Wheeler will come out to jawbone. But I wasn't going to take the risk.

"Intervening in FX market"?.. those are really strong words I think.

Guys, what do you think?

Welcome @Bsmile44 and @yusuff666. Better days ahead.
  • #218
  • Aug 10, 2017 1:36am Aug 10, 2017 1:36am
Quoting Fader123
Its the general tone that matters McDermott's recent speech was dovish. Inflation expectations lower Higher Kiwi affecting exports. But kiwi has drifted back Grant Spencer takes over. Will he go for it though, that is the question. He saw what happened the last time. Surely he wont want that to happen. On balance you'd have to say he should be dovish And he would have a reason to be. Think that market is generally expecting a dovish statement So he is going to need to pull out the bag a bit. Better off waiting to see what he says
Finally it moves
Also USD strength helps at the moment
  • #219
  • Aug 10, 2017 2:14am Aug 10, 2017 2:14am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Finally it moves Also USD strength helps at the moment
Danm, missed the trade as I am at work. Based on everything, looks like the move is here to stay
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #220
  • Aug 10, 2017 4:46am Aug 10, 2017 4:46am
anyone looking at USDZAR?, given the recent #noconfidence vote I would have thought we've be heading higher but I'm not sure if this whole nuclear banter with north korea is playing a bigger impact there than the markets lack of confidence in Jacob Zuma.....
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