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Fundamental/News Thread

Quoting Fader123
This is going to be my last post on Forex Factory. I will still be trading, but I don't get any information from the people that post on FF. No one does any research- its all about using indicators or price action to determine if you should put your money down on a trade. I just regard that putting my cash in the hands of lady luck Do you honestly think that Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank trade the way that people do on here These banks spend millions on research and on the best news feeds. DB actually owns a news group I trade completely differently...
Its saddening to hear this.
Trading differently to 99% of the people here is the reason your thread/posts are so insightful.

I actually partially agree that there is a certain level of blind trust and over-reliance on indicator/technical analysis in this forum.
However, there are still valuable gems of knowledge to be found.

I wish you all the best in your trading journey and I hope that one day, I will be reading posts by you again.
Thank you for all valuable insights you have shared with this forum.
I look for value wherever it can be found
Sorry to see you go. Yours is the only thread I read.
Hi

I realise we all have busy lives. But I also feel that I am spending too much time writing my thoughts on FF but none of it is really reciprocated. My fault for thinking that it would be.

In respect of TA, sorry I think I should of clarified it. Just relying solely on PA or indicators I feel can be dangerous.

I remember when the French president had said that the UK must feel pain and the news algos picked up on this and caused a crash.
Unfortunately for a number of retail traders they were long before this happened as price on Cable was at support just before it crashed.
Look what happened to the SNB.
Hundreds of retail traders got really hurt.

I totally get the re testing of areas using PA. But understand sentiment. Read Reuters and Efxnews. Know what central banks views are and what other factors affect a currency (iron ore, crude oil, other similar currencies) and what traders will be looking at
Certainly have a news feed on or at least read what the heads of state and central bankers have said and guage the impact
This will give you sentiment
So when price hits support you'll know whether it should go through it or reverse

If all this too complicated, the easiest trade of the lot is waiting for a large beat or miss on expected and getting in on the first pullback. I use a 1 minute candle. Look to target pivots, s/r. Also use Wychoff to help identify end of the move.

There be will at least a few of these each month.

Perhaps at some point I will set up an account on MQL5 or something.

If that happens, will definitely let you guys know.
Hello mate! I can understand your position. However, imho, posting on FF or any other public forum is primarily for self-expression. Anything beyond that is bonus; at least to avoid any disappointment or frustration. Besides, there are many ways to trade the markets regardless of what self-promoting gurus want others to believe.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting Fader123
This is going to be my last post on Forex Factory. I will still be trading, but I don't get any information from the people that post on FF. No one does any research- its all about using indicators or price action to determine if you should put your money down on a trade....Good Luck all Fader123
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
In an effort to keep this thread alive, I propose that the rest of us on ff were to continuously post our fundamental thoughts/trade ideas over here.

Understand that there are hundreds of ways to view a situation. I wont go to the extent in saying that there are no right or wrong as there are. But I will say that through sharing of different views with each other, we will hopefully be able to discover a common outlook for a particular currency, which happens to be the right/profitable view.
I look for value wherever it can be found
Agreed
I guess ill start the ball rolling then.
Shall we take things week by week?

USD
Back of favourable NFP and unemployment data. However plagued with political and inflationary woes. Where and why do you think usd will go next week?

GBP
2 rate hike in 3 years, dissapointing to investors?
Latest news about 40billion euros payment to EU. Will it have an implication on gbp?
Inflation has been rising steadily throughout the months, but wage growth cant keep up. Is this bullish/bearish for GBP in the long-term?

EUR
Big,big winner this past month.
ECB hawkish, hints of tapering. But disappointing data last week. Yet markets seem not to be bothered.
Is this optimism or over-optimism?

There are more currencies of course but I am not very familiar with the rest. Thus i chose to focus on currencies which I am more confident of.

Do share your views!
I look for value wherever it can be found
Fader, don't go. Give this thread another chance. We need ya!I promise to start writing more on a weekly basis. The only problem is I'm so over worked I've got limited time. At any rate, I've gone over previous parts of the thread that "I didn't have time to read " and am impressed. It's made me rededicate myself to this kind of research. Thanks for all the work you put in here. Best of luck in your trading but as you might say:"Fortune goes to those who are most prepared".
This a trade that I took on Aug 4th, 2017 at about 8:30 EST. This was based on the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) report that came out better than expected. I chose the pound because the trend was already downward. This originally began with the Bank of England voting count being left unchanged. The market was hoping for a stronger vote in favor of a rate hike. When it didn't come about, the market tanked. The GBP was paired with the temporary stronger US dollar that again resulted from a better than expected NFP number: 209k compared to the expected 183k. I looked for a deviation along with the quality of jobs and average hourly earnings numbers.

The Fed is not paying as much attention to the job numbers and so this was one reason I didn't let the trade run very far. This coupled with the fact that the average hourly earnings came in only as expected: 0.30 limited the down side. In hindsight, I need to again split the trade and let half the trade run further after the stop loss is moved to break even. This trade made up for a dumb trade that I made earlier in the week that I ended up making worse by revenge trading.


Inserted Video


Dumb trade:
Inserted Video
Ok I will stay.
Will just put up some live calls
When to trade, where to put TPs and SL.
We won't need SL but just in case
No more big essays ect.. .
Quoting Fader123
Hi I realise we all have busy lives.
But I also feel that I am spending too much time writing my thoughts on FF but none of it is really reciprocated. My fault for thinking that it would be..... .
If that happens, will definitely let you guys know.
Stay around buddy.
I feel the same..... but chat a little weekends.
Otherwise waste of opportunities..

Many bad traders around...depressing ....but ANY guy can give a good idea. Just like bread - you pick hundreds of grains, throw away the bad, keep the good

And we're the best
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
Quoting Fader123
Ok I will stay. Will just put up some live calls When to trade, where to put TPs and SL. We won't need SL but just in case No more big essays ect.. .
The fact you've agreed to stay... that alone in itself is melody to my ears.
Thanks Fader.
Thought I'd share this.
A piece by Ryan Littlestone.
Really good read for the weekend.
https://www.forexcrunch.com/ready-change-markets/
@jchiogna, I admire your commitment to success. Pls don't slow down.

Quoting jchiogna1
The Fed is not paying as much attention to the job numbers....
About the above.. do you mean the NFP print alone? Or the entire report as a whole?
Because I think the Fed are very much interested in Avg. earnings and unemployment (something about the Philips curve).
Correct me if I'm wrong pls.

I agree with you about there being nothing really special about report. It seems so to me. Better Avg. earnings would of being the icing on the cake for the Fed.
You've just reminded me how I should go to the source itself, the Fed report. I think the Fed is less concerned with the job numbers since according to their baloney "the job market now seems to be on track". However, they are still concerned with inflation and therefore any numbers related to it.Number of new jobs created and the unemployment rate are only some of the indicators of the expected future inflation. Average hourly earnings , which is released at the same time as the NFP, is another future indicator of inflation. The higher our wages the more we spend. The Fed is looking for an improvement in this now.

I'm posting this video because it gives an understanding of where the US dollar is headed in the long term. The jobs being created are mostly part time with many of the full time jobs being destroyed due to Obama care. These are some of the reasons I'm long term bullish on cryptos and precious metals(ironically the author distrusts cryptos) :

Inserted Video
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
@jchiogna, I admire your commitment to success. Pls don't slow down. {quote} About the above.. do you mean the NFP print alone? Or the entire report as a whole? Because I think the Fed are very much interested in Avg. earnings and unemployment (something about the Philips curve). Correct me if I'm wrong pls. I agree with you about there being nothing really special about report. It seems so to me. Better Avg. earnings would of being the icing on the cake for the Fed.
Over the last week there seems to have been a more positive bias towards the dollar.
I know that some of the banks had the view the sell off on the buck was overdone
Certainly the tweets from Trump seemed to be more positive.
Plus Trump is determined to stop the leaks coming from the White House
In respect of the average earnings - it went up on last months figures
Also the CPI estimate is out next week - and that it +.2 m/m the highest for sometime
This could be a great trade, especially if we get a beat
Quoting synicz
I guess ill start the ball rolling then. Shall we take things week by week? USD Back of favourable NFP and unemployment data. However plagued with political and inflationary woes. Where and why do you think usd will go next week? GBP 2 rate hike in 3 years, dissapointing to investors? Latest news about 40billion euros payment to EU. Will it have an implication on gbp? Inflation has been rising steadily throughout the months, but wage growth cant keep up. Is this bullish/bearish for GBP in the long-term? EUR Big,big winner this past month....
My reply to the question in bold is YES.

USD
EDIT:
My view on the USD is updated. Bullish sentiment seems to be legit. Pullback could be more resilient and sustained at least going into next weeks CPI releases. I'd probably buy USD into that release as things stands.

BOE

It's a bit "should I stay or should go now?"... Based on what I know now I'm bearish going into the week. Brexit is still alive and breathing too.

EUR
Champion!!! This was the basis of all my good trades (demo or real) the last month or so. Pure over-optimism at play here. I mean the Euro got the CHF moving! Can you beat that?! Typical example of market greed. Every bad data has been an opportunity to buy the dips.
I think the market is simply targeting 1.20.. and until it gets there, it will not rest.
Which data was it that was disappointing? Monday's Core CPI and unemployment rate improved and beat YoY... Eurusd did not immediately move on the news but then it settled a bit around daily pivot before skyrocketing to 1.19. I missed that trade.. though I basically watched it as it happened. #Painful.

All said and done.. I am yet to properly research for the week. So my opinions on this might change Monday morning.
Also as wages increase - firms have to put up prices to pay for increase in wages

Next week we have the RBNZ meeting
Does anyone have a clue as to why CPI in New Zealand fell last month - was it seasonal?
Following, Wheeler's unexpected hawkish stance (due mainly to an argument he had with another banker), does anyone think he will maintain this stance or change bias
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Over the last week there seems to have been a more positive bias towards the dollar. I know that some of the banks had the view the sell off on the buck was overdone Certainly the tweets from Trump seemed to be more positive. Plus Trump is determined to stop the leaks coming from the White House In respect of the average earnings - it went up on last months figures Also the CPI estimate is out next week - and that it +.2 m/m the highest for sometime This could be a great trade, especially if we get a beat
Blimey!
All this while I was reading last months print as 0.4 .. just went back to check on the calendar. I can't believe I made that kind of goof. LOL
Now I'm full on bullish the dollar going into Fridays CPI prints.. only major risk being headlines from the Whitehouse.

Thanks a billion, @Fader.
My expectation is longterm dollar bearish with respect to real goods and Bitcoin. I'm talking 2-3 years out.
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