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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #30,861
  • Aug 7, 2017 7:29pm Aug 7, 2017 7:29pm
Quoting kelvinyun
EURUSD: Be careful of going long or short. If it's the end of the uptrend, then the bulls could still do one final push, so it doesn't pay to be bearish. {image} USDJPY: Could still go short. {image}
Nice call on eurusd!
  • #30,862
  • Edited 8:22pm Aug 7, 2017 8:10pm | Edited 8:22pm
Quoting dogdays713
{quote} Nice call on eurusd!
I've started as a fundamentalist until Mr Pip transformed me into a technical analyst lol.


EURGBP: EUR is still going strong. Its economy is doing better than UK. Buy.
(Note that after every push higher, it will consolidate and fluctuate around the green boxes?? That's perfect area for entry)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EURUSD: Uncertain. Yeah EUR is getting stronger. But US economy is also doing pretty well. And with the long uptrend, market may just take a breather. Technically, I've drawn the green box, which should contain the PA... any breaks beyond the green box will be bearish or bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USDJPY: Trend is still down. After the bullish move last Friday, where does all the momentum goes? Dissipated into thin air. It barely retraced to 38.2% of the main swing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,863
  • Aug 8, 2017 1:58am Aug 8, 2017 1:58am
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSH

- Market is currently at it's 38.2 Fib of it's main Intraday swing as shown in the 5m chart
Expectation: Waiting to see if price comes to my AOI (around the 61.8 Fib) for me to take this trade long. Will see what happens at the London open

Longterm: NSL

- The market is still bearish as it needs to break the clear high to consider it that the market is bullish (as shown in 15m chart)
- If the intraday market does decide to go bullish, i would like price to complete at the harmonic completion
Expectation: Market to reach the 61.8 Fib of the main swing and to look to sell in that region
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 080817 5m.JPG Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 080817 15m.JPG Size: 125 KB
  • #30,864
  • Aug 8, 2017 2:37am Aug 8, 2017 2:37am
Quoting RajD
USDJPY Analysis Intraday: NSH - Market is currently at it's 38.2 Fib of it's main Intraday swing as shown in the 5m chart Expectation: Waiting to see if price comes to my AOI (around the 61.8 Fib) for me to take this trade long. Will see what happens at the London open Longterm: NSL - The market is still bearish as it needs to break the clear high to consider it that the market is bullish (as shown in 15m chart) - If the intraday market does decide to go bullish, i would like price to complete at the harmonic completion Expectation: Market to reach...
Sorry I couldn't answer your post yesterday I have not been at the screen all day.
Not much changed on USDJPY chart since yesterday.
Intraday made a weak NSH. We could expect a deep correction. Would be great to see price retrace to 110.30 area or deeper.
Bears don't look awfully decisive though.
And at 110.45, at approx. 50% correction of the intraday swing up, there will be an ABCD pattern completion. No confluence with large structure there.
I'm probably gonna wait for the deep correction to go long, make a 1:1 intraday and then see what to do next.
  • #30,865
  • Aug 8, 2017 2:52am Aug 8, 2017 2:52am
Quoting PeterT
{quote} Sorry I couldn't answer your post yesterday I have not been at the screen all day. Not much changed on USDJPY chart since yesterday. Intraday made a weak NSH. We could expect a deep correction. Would be great to see price retrace to 110.30 area or deeper. Bears don't look awfully decisive though. And at 110.45, at approx. 50% correction of the intraday swing up, there will be an ABCD pattern completion. No confluence with large structure there. I'm probably gonna wait for the deep correction to go long, make a 1:1 intraday and then see what...
Yea there would be 2 harmonic completions on the 50 Fib region but yea i want it to come to 61.8. Very good structure there. So i think lot of ppl will buy in the 50 region but i wanna wait because there are people waiting at the 61.8. I think that would avoid the pain train. However, the market is moving quite slow. Not many pre orders in the USDJPY during the London market open.
  • #30,866
  • Aug 8, 2017 3:14am Aug 8, 2017 3:14am
Quoting kelvinyun
{quote} I've started as a fundamentalist until Mr Pip transformed me into a technical analyst lol. EURGBP: EUR is still going strong. Its economy is doing better than UK. Buy. (Note that after every push higher, it will consolidate and fluctuate around the green boxes?? That's perfect area for entry) {image} EURUSD: Uncertain. Yeah EUR is getting stronger. But US economy is also doing pretty well. And with the long uptrend, market may just take a breather. Technically, I've drawn the green box, which should contain the PA... any breaks beyond the...
Nice vision on the EURUSD Kevin and any breaking of that green box would indicate a bullish/bearish move.
  • #30,867
  • Aug 8, 2017 3:58am Aug 8, 2017 3:58am
EURUSD Analysis

Intraday: NSL

- On the 5m chart, it makes a NSL on the 4th of August 2:20pm GMT. Market looks like its still in the correction of the clear swing
Expectation: Market to complete the small 1:1 harmonic completion to the upside. That would bring to 50-61.8 Fib so would be interested to go short in that area. There's good structure there as well.

Long Term: NSH

- If the Intraday price successfully goes through, then look to go long if price comes as low as 50 to 61.8 Fib of the clear long term swing. There's good structure there
- Market is overall bullish
Expectation: Waiting for intraday to make the move
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 080817 5m.JPG Size: 115 KB
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  • #30,868
  • Aug 8, 2017 4:01am Aug 8, 2017 4:01am
Quoting RajD
{quote} Nice vision on the EURUSD Kevin and any breaking of that green box would indicate a bullish/bearish move.
Frankly, based on chart only, EURUSD already broken previous LH.

So actual expectation is a NSL.

But, because it has been trending upwards for a long time, it's very dangerous to call for NSL.

We need to give the bulls some respect, and allow more leeway for the fluctuation. That's why I prefer a wait and see attitude until it becomes more clear.
  • #30,869
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:11am Aug 8, 2017 6:11am
Possible setup on the USDJPY.
- It's at structure
- Harmonic completion already done at the 50 Fib, however bears still pushing down so movement to 61.8 is possible
- SOS 3 complete

Action: Looking to go long at 100.300 but will look for that strong rotating candle for confirmation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 080817 Action.JPG Size: 129 KB
  • #30,870
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:52am Aug 8, 2017 6:52am
Quoting kelvinyun
{quote} Frankly, based on chart only, EURUSD already broken previous LH. So actual expectation is a NSL. But, because it has been trending upwards for a long time, it's very dangerous to call for NSL. We need to give the bulls some respect, and allow more leeway for the fluctuation. That's why I prefer a wait and see attitude until it becomes more clear.
So what is your expectation Kelvin?? Do let me know where price is heading for you for more clarity. Thanks!
  • #30,871
  • Edited 7:14am Aug 8, 2017 6:56am | Edited 7:14am
- Long at 110.350 on USDJPY
- Stop Loss at 109.84
Note: There could be a harmonic completion so price is looking to complete it and would take me a few pips low. Let's hope i'm right on this
  • #30,872
  • Aug 8, 2017 11:16am Aug 8, 2017 11:16am
usdjpy +30

went very aggressive with the trade. the red line is where i had my stop loss. I realized that the market will be slow by 16:00 GMT so i placed it right below a structure that i thought would be the right spot and if i'm taken out then i'm ready to call it a night

See you guys tomorrow
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  • #30,873
  • Aug 8, 2017 8:42pm Aug 8, 2017 8:42pm
Quoting RajD
{quote} So what is your expectation Kelvin?? Do let me know where price is heading for you for more clarity. Thanks!
EURUSD: Expectation is a NSL, but cannot trade. Similar to how an orchestra ends, the ending of a trend will be full of wild swings. You don't want to be crushed by the bulls.

USDJPY: Shorted and nice profit there.

EURGBP: Waiting for opportunity.

XAUUSD: ... i asked my friend to call me up if price moved to targeted area. She profited nicely, but did not call me so I wasn't in the game.

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  • #30,874
  • Aug 8, 2017 11:04pm Aug 8, 2017 11:04pm
EA:Is this unrealistic expectation?

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  • #30,875
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:19am Aug 9, 2017 2:19am
USDJPY Analysis

Intraday: NSL

- Market made a NSL around 2:00am GMT. Since then it's been correcting from that swing (see 5m chart)
Expectation: Would like to see price come back to the 110.300 price range. There is good structure there (50-61.8 region). Will look to see if a harmonic pattern completes there and might look for shorts there

Long Term: NSL

- Market made a NSL and is correcting of the swing as shown in 15m chart
Expectation: There is confluence with the intraday and long term in the 110.300 region. So will look for short on the best rotating candle. However it is the 38.2 Fib region so price might look to go higher before going short. It might be a pain train if i take a early rotation but lets see
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 090817 5m.JPG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 090817 15m.JPG Size: 116 KB
  • #30,876
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:25am Aug 9, 2017 2:25am
Quoting brrand
EA:Is this unrealistic expectation? {image}
Suggest u zoom out a bit and look at the larger picture.

Is the red line drawn the main swing? If so, then you will be expecting NSH instead of NSL.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 000184.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #30,877
  • Aug 9, 2017 3:01am Aug 9, 2017 3:01am
EURUSD Analysis

Intraday: NSL

- as per the 5 m chart, market made a NSL yesterday around 4pm GMT and the bears tried pushing the market but failed to make a NSL around 2:30am GMT today
- the market is correcting of the swing in the 5m chart
Expectation: Would like price to come to the 50-61.8 region but seems like the bears are quite strong pushing the market down as we speak. Let's see how it plays out

Longterm: NSH

- The market is overall bullish long term
- Price is at the golden zone and there is strong structure
Expectation: Price is already at it's position to go long however, will look for the intraday to play out first
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 090817 5m.JPG Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 090817 15m.JPG Size: 125 KB
  • #30,878
  • Aug 9, 2017 4:25am Aug 9, 2017 4:25am
Quoting brrand
EA:Is this unrealistic expectation? {image}
Hi Brrand.

- As Kelvin said it, the red line that he has drawn is the main swing for your EURAUD daily chart.
- Expectation is a NSH, however price can correct anywhere of that main swing
- The best thing is to look for a Area Of Interest (AOI) where your Risk to Reward is best. That would be the 50-61.8 region so then you draw a Fib (swing low to swing high).
- If price comes to your AOI then you should look for long in that region. The other two things you should also look for is structure. If you zoom out, look to your left of the chart and see if price has revisited that area before. If yes, try to draw a rectangle box which ranges violent price movements. (Look at my charts for more clarity)
- Third thing is harmonics. See if any harmonic pattern completes there. If yes, then you have 3 imp reasons to be in that trade. Look for that strong rotating candle for the confirmation

Note: Please remember that since you are looking at price on a daily chart, you might see price come to your AOI in a few days or more.
  • #30,879
  • Aug 9, 2017 6:22am Aug 9, 2017 6:22am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Peter be decisive, make the executive decision and stick with it. Now we have the market in summer mode with the thin volume (way below 100 G contracts) so every 10 contracts a specialist puts on will print the rotation bar to fake you. In trending markets, it's smart to trail the stop loss but not so in consolidating/ranging. Of course like usually these are only my thoughts how I see the day trading, I believe you will take what suits you the best and at the end, you will find your own way to trade. {image} {image}
Coreg2004 thanks for taking the time, very informative post!
  • #30,880
  • Aug 9, 2017 8:09am Aug 9, 2017 8:09am
USDJPY Update

- Market made a weak NSL at 8:15 GMT and another NSL at 12:20 GMT.
- Market is quite bearish so few changes in my approach at the moment

Expectation: Looking for price to correct from the swing shown on chart (Reason for drawing the Fib from there is because it is the clear high. The one below it seems short term. Will wait for it to reach the golden zone. Will look for shorts then

EURUSD Update

- Market moving sideways
- Long term wise, it is already at the golden zone for going long but not very comfortable taking the trade. Will look to see what happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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