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  • #181
  • Aug 6, 2017 2:53pm Aug 6, 2017 2:53pm
Quoting Fader123
Also as wages increase - firms have to put up prices to pay for increase in wages Next week we have the RBNZ meeting Does anyone have a clue as to why CPI in New Zealand fell last month - was it seasonal? Following, Wheeler's unexpected hawkish stance (due mainly to an argument he had with another banker), does anyone think he will maintain this stance or change bias
Transport prices were down, especially domestic airfare prices (down 15%)
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...PJun17qtr.aspx
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #182
  • Aug 6, 2017 3:06pm Aug 6, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Transport prices were down, especially domestic airfare prices (down 15%) http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...PJun17qtr.aspx
cheers Expo33
  • #183
  • Aug 6, 2017 4:43pm Aug 6, 2017 4:43pm
Quoting Fader123
Ok I will stay. Will just put up some live calls When to trade, where to put TPs and SL. We won't need SL but just in case No more big essays ect.. .
Woohoo! Thats great news!
I think you managed to unite all fundamentalist as well!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #184
  • Edited 5:16pm Aug 6, 2017 5:03pm | Edited 5:16pm
Quoting Fader123
Also as wages increase - firms have to put up prices to pay for increase in wages Next week we have the RBNZ meeting Does anyone have a clue as to why CPI in New Zealand fell last month - was it seasonal? Following, Wheeler's unexpected hawkish stance (due mainly to an argument he had with another banker), does anyone think he will maintain this stance or change bias
I just had a lookup at nz stats. Cpi has been increasing steadily, hourly wages too.
Gdp took a hit in 2015 but managed to recover in 2016, unemployment has been falling.
I cannot be totally sure but I guess last months drop in cpi is just "noise". Everything else seems to be on track to warrent a rate hike.

From the data perspective, I think Wheeler will remain hawkish for time to come. He might talk down data and emphasize concerns in other readings. But my view is that eventually, rbnz will have to hike interest rate or alter their monetary policy.

My view on NZD is bullish in the long-term. However, timing is an issue as NZD has been falling against most other currencies the past week.

Edit:
I think globally, investors are either be becoming more risk adverse or the carry traders are deleveraging their positions. The symptoms are that my carry trade portfolio took a 10% hit in value past week. My understanding of nzd is that some traders like to long nzd as part of a carry trade strategy. This logic lines up well with the drop in nzd and carry trade currencies. However, this is a subjective opinion of mine, I could be wrong!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #185
  • Edited 7:06pm Aug 6, 2017 6:53pm | Edited 7:06pm
Of all of the currencies the Kiwi can be the most difficult to read.

Nonetheless lets have look;

Statement

Here is the latest statement

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2017/06...t-1-75-percent

Value
Kiwi has rallied recently mainly due to Trump/carry trade. Wheeler is not a fan of a high Kiwi. Yellen's current bias does not help, but decent CPI/NFP figs will

Inflation
took a large dive- last month- its now at 1.7% pa
The long term target is 1-3% and at around 2%.
Think that this was due to seasonal factors (low season)- although cheap airfares are here to stay

Economy/GDP
However, the economy is doing well. There was a budget that was designed to improve the economy(neutral/hawkish)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95442649/moodys-hails-new-zealands-growth-but-warns-household-debt-is-uncharted-territory

Employment

Although not really considered by the bank job growth is moderating
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gove...neutral-stance
Although unemployment at an all time low.

House Prices
Plus house prices are not doing well (dovish)

Conclusion

I was thinking he will be more dovish - by the issues with inflation will probably be treated as transitory
Although if memory serves me there was talk that the conditions that affect home - buyers should be reflected in the outlook of the RBNZ
So on balance I would say more neutral.
I need a few more days to think about it.
  • #186
  • Aug 6, 2017 7:06pm Aug 6, 2017 7:06pm
If unsure, STAY AWAY!

Haha, i guess its my risk adverse self kicking in
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #187
  • Aug 6, 2017 7:10pm Aug 6, 2017 7:10pm
I have a few more days to think/research it.
Then lets see what the banks think
If we are not really clear- then I will miss this one
There always is US CPI figures to enjoy
  • #188
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:28pm Aug 7, 2017 4:28pm
quick question here pls... calendar on FF or calendar on Investing -which do you find to be the most reliable/accurate?
  • #189
  • Aug 7, 2017 4:36pm Aug 7, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting Fader123
Of all of the currencies the Kiwi can be the most difficult to read ..
I agree.

Quoting Fader123
Inflation took a large dive- last month- its now at 1.7% pa The long term target is 1-3% and at around 2%. Think that this was due to seasonal factors (low season)- although cheap airfares are here to stay ...
Please what exactly do you mean by "low season"?

Quoting Fader123
House Prices Plus house prices are not doing well (dovish)...
At what point(s) does House prices become a problem for central banks?
  • #190
  • Edited 6:17pm Aug 7, 2017 5:43pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I agree. {quote} Please what exactly do you mean by "low season"? {quote} At what point(s) does House prices become a problem for central banks?
Not enough here really- to hold an open position as the statement is being read out.
Inflation expectations have dropped slightly, yet the economy is doing really well- its a sweet spot
Really it time to forget this one and move on

Great questions by the way

During the "low season" airline flights prices drop, during the "high season" - they go up- everyone goes on holiday

House price problems- who knows he thinks it could rebound

Perhaps he might try to talk down the Kiwi - inflation is stalling slightly and we know he dislikes a high NZD. That's it really
The economy is doing ok in any event.
  • #191
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:17am Aug 8, 2017 6:17am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
quick question here pls... calendar on FF or calendar on Investing -which do you find to be the most reliable/accurate?
Personally, I prefer the FF one. It just seems easier to read somehow.

All the others are not as clear.

My only complaint is that the FF one (And all other free ones) are really slow when the data is released
  • #192
  • Aug 8, 2017 12:31pm Aug 8, 2017 12:31pm
Bullard's "revelation" that inflation is forecast to rise only to 1.8 percent even if the U.S. unemployment rate falls to 3 percent from current 4.3 percent, is telling indeed. An indication of how much dilemma the Fed is in with inflation.

But the weaker dollar might just lend a helping hand.

In the meantime USD has been on a tear today.
  • #193
  • Aug 8, 2017 12:34pm Aug 8, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting fx1986
{quote} Personally, I prefer the FF one. It just seems easier to read somehow. All the others are not as clear. My only complaint is that the FF one (And all other free ones) are really slow when the data is released
Thanks @fx1986 for chipping in with your thoughts.
I agree the interface on FF is easy on the eye and simple to read... though I'm more concerned about which of them people find to be most trustworthy in data they report.
  • #194
  • Edited 1:31pm Aug 8, 2017 12:59pm | Edited 1:31pm
Lots happening at the moment.
A few Fed speakers around I understand.
I see the NZD is off at the moment. A couple of of the banks have posted dovish warnings.
I should have picked up on this, plus the Fed members
One for the journal really
Grant Spencer takes over next month.
At the last meeting price started moving rapidly about 30 minutes before the event
Anything neutral and the Kiwi rallies
Something to bear in mind.
I won't be trading it
  • #195
  • Aug 8, 2017 3:31pm Aug 8, 2017 3:31pm
http://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/8897...tion-rbnz-pays

Useful info
  • #196
  • Aug 8, 2017 4:01pm Aug 8, 2017 4:01pm
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Thanks @fx1986 for chipping in with your thoughts. I agree the interface on FF is easy on the eye and simple to read... though I'm more concerned about which of them people find to be most trustworthy in data they report.

Well as far as I'm aware the data is taken from Bloomberg. The problem is that it is much slower than the main feed. Also, the FF news 'setup' is done by their own analysts which (in my opinion) are not that hot. For example, you will frequently see some event noted as 'medium' impact when in reality at that time it is extremely important and should be red.

They do not monitor the central bank and economic situation in real time, they just have 'standard' classifications for each event type. So this can be misleading.

But in terms of free calendars, I think FF is still the best. They are all pretty much taken from the same source (Bloomberg or Reuters) so the actual info is going to be very similar.
  • #197
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:36pm Aug 8, 2017 6:36pm
"N.Korea seriously considering a strike on Guam"

This was the headline I woke up to. It certainly had an impact on the markets, especially carry trades currencies.

My carry position took a real dive overnight. On closer inspection I realised that yen and swiss franc gained.
My interpretation of this is that markets are going towards a risk-off sentiment. Long or short term is yet to be known.

Fader123. I guess now is the best time to short currencies such as nzd. Although I would pair it up with alternative safe-haven currencies other than usd. Although the timeline is not known. I suspect its a short term kind of trade. Unless more news of a possible war develops. So close watching of these positions are needed.

For everyone else, what are your thoughts on this? Does this news have an major impact on the global markets? Or is it just a overreaction?
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #198
  • Aug 8, 2017 6:52pm Aug 8, 2017 6:52pm
"Trump vows" Fire and Fury" if N. Korea keeps threatening U.S"

Typical of him.

This news further reinforce my conviction that risky currencies are a bad bet now.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #199
  • Aug 9, 2017 1:48am Aug 9, 2017 1:48am
The best thing to do is to see how currencies have reacted in past to an escalation in threats.
How big was the move
When did it start and when did it fizzle out
How long did it last
And what currencies were affected

As the the threat is directed towards the USA and Asia, would have looked to go long on CHFUSD (make sure that there are no speeches due from the head of the SNB) though

If it's worthwhile its best to trade these moves as the news breaks hence having a decent news feed. This is where you get the biggest move

Sometimes traders will jump on to a move at the start of a new session,.

I like to wait for pullback either going into a new session or shortly after open.

US traders might do something when NY opens. But you have to see if it will be worth it. Do some research first.

I won't be trading it now though
  • #200
  • Aug 9, 2017 2:21am Aug 9, 2017 2:21am
Quoting synicz
"Trump vows" Fire and Fury" if N. Korea keeps threatening U.S" Typical of him. This news further reinforce my conviction that risky currencies are a bad bet now.
You mean "bad bet" for carry trades?
Well, for long-term carry trades, this risk-off moves are supposed to cause the relatively little pullbacks, right? Though I think the world is in a very risk-off environment right now... but the maybe the markets could become very used to it pretty soon.
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