Market Predatorfx58

No problem Neil, welcome Back...I have been doing some minor changes, a whole revamp may happen so i hope with your help and filter rudiments we will hit rock hard success...

Sounds good youll have to bring me upto date with what has been happening

yes indeed, we have been testing 123 concept i have, but we trying to fuse together the best tools and skill sets together to make it happen, nothing has been easy and it takes alot of brain usage and time. I have not neglected this system in anyway but to get good results for all it takes time...In fact all three make one system but it is hard to work on them all at the same time. Cheers...The development so far is with Nesta my dear friend. All i can say its not easy...But will be worth it.

Okshop this is a very interesting way of adding the fibs to the range. I think positive fibs extension above and negative fibs extension below would work really nice. With the high and low being +/-100 level. With the intial take profit at +/-161.8.

I would like to test this.
I have been away testing several systems to see how they would line up with the strategy.
I have looked at strength trading and 123 setup. So I am wondering if elements found in my research may be able to help in better maximize on this reoccurring event.

This setup can be traded on forex pairs as well as commodities.

The next test was also observed by Neil to placing orders closer to the data releases instead of the entire range. Like the last 1hour on the m15 chart.

Then I was testing h1 breakout of the last 3-4hours of New York session for Asian breakout. This method has worked well to get a different range similar to 15 minutes timeframe range. Placing the same rules for that box.

Some pairs did extremely well on different occasions like Nzd, Jpy, and Aid.

I am also looking into the other market closes of the same 3-4 hours prior to the start of the session. Finding set pairs to trade or concentrate on for that particular session.

The next thing is whether this 3-4 hour can also go after the session has started I am open to the combinations.
This strategy for those who are following and have had some extremely good results especially on the Eur's and Gbp's moving more than 100 pips each time.

Coder/Programmer Squalou had left a great tool for trading this method which I found as i dug deeper and deeper into more research.
Such as the authorised breakout box indicator which also have inputs for martingale for trading inside the box several times. I am not a fan of martingale but it was implemented well in his programing.

Then there is the 3 tier London breakout indicator which I utilized to he'll with my cheat sheet.

Neil have you figured out how to get breakout trade to last for the week? or anyone else...

Set up for the week and keep doing it....

So it make sense to know which asset to watch for the whole week and trade it...No time for wasting...This incorporates 123 methods, strengths, and knowing whats going on a larger timeframe...

So i need a update from scratch again, how have we gone about this, seems rather interesting!
Chance of a step by step guide again

I will shortly, i am updating the page for automation @ Nesta...

Market conditions will be perfect for breakout come nfp...choose m15 and as recommended by Neil, lets try the 1 hour before...

Interested to see your results on this!

Sorry for my silence ive been thinking.......dangerous i know

Let me begin.
Starting with a simple question More money or more Pips? Now i know your thinking well Neil more pips because if i had more pips id have more money duh.

So i was sitting there reviewing history of NFP i found usually it goes in one direction but sometimes along with other news events (red) they can whipsaw as we all know. How can i combat these things when im trying to straddle and make money at the same time. Simple set your take profit target lower, now i know red news events can shift the market 60-70 pips on a 15 minute chart in one sometimes with a whipsaw. So why not aim for 10 pips which i know 90% of the time even if it does whip it will hit 10 pips target no matter what. (Obviously nothing is 100% certain) In my perspective id rather have a 90% chance ish of wining my trade rather than loosing my trade.

Lets think we set a straddle up using 1 lot- our take profit is £84 on 10 pips We use a 20 pip Stop which is seen in the trading world unacceptable (blow your account etc Risk is 2:1) but wait, surly its less risky because hey we are only after 10 pips from when we are filled in the trade. Think the more higher your take profit level the more pips you are going to need, price has more chance of hitting 10 pips than 90 pips agreed?? so surly it make sense to aim for 10 pips than hoping price will get to say 40 pips whilst you have your take profit at 70 pips then its starts to reverse. Now if we set our straddle and it does whipsaw then we can more than likely hit our 10 pips (£84) have price whip and then take our other 10 pip (£84) thats 20 pips ive made of a news release that has whiped, where as as we know our take profit is set too high we get entered into our trade great things are going my way you cant wait till it hits your TP nearly there brilliant and bam it whips price comes back and hits your stoploss brilliant a loosing trade now your sat there damm if only i set my TP a little lower id have won that trade.

So how have i incorporated this into my trading

STAGE A

1. Ill check news on the economic calendar for red news
2. If there is Red news ill wait half an hour before it is released
3. Using the 15m chart ill look for the range and ill take my horizontal line tool and place it straight through the center of the range (through the middle of the candles not the top or the bottom of the channel, this gives me my median range)
4. Ill set my entry 20 pips above and below the horizontal line with a take profit of 10 pips. (its up to you if you do this on multiple currency pairs for that red news but it does entail more risk but also more reward)

STAGE B

1. Ill check news on the economic calendar for news.
2. If there is no news that take my fancy ill wait till 00:00 UK TIME
3. ill look at EUR/USD now between 00:00-0400 UK time 90% of the time there is no major movment of course creating a channel
4. ill set up my Buy stop/Sell stop around 00:00-01:00 then go to bed 20 pip stop loss 10 pip take profit as per
5. Then ill leave these set up until around 5pm UK time if one is triggered the other one is canceled

So why the EUR/USD-simple its the most volatile pair out of all pairs there is more chance of my order being filled and hit on that pair than any other.

Considerations

Because i have such a small TP target im considering moving my entry maybe 15 pips from my horizontal line as discussed in Stage A. why? Just to ensure my order is filled and i have more chance of my TP target being hit.

Risk more money using bigger lots YES with a 20 pip stop i will loose more money compared to a 10 pip stop and 20 pip take profit i get that, however ive decreased the chance of that happening because i have such a small TP target.

like i say i have more chance of me getting 10 pips with 1 lot (£84) than what i would have 20 pips with 0.5 of a lot to make my £84

I would like to know your thoughts on this prince and anyone else any pitfalls i have not seen. I hope what ive said makes sense it is kind of confusing to pick up but i hope you can all see my point im trying to make So far this way has made me £336 in two days and i have been filled and won on 5 trades meaning the other 5 trades where not actioned and there fore canceled by myself so it seems to be working out for me at the minute, that is using a live account too and not a demo. Please ask questions, critisize but give your explenations we are all here to learn.

Again sorry about the poor spelling/grammer

Regards
Neil

First of all I love high impact news events especially when the broker does not cheat me like they did today, i will surely be getting a new broker definitely for doing news trading. For News trading i do straddle and use strengths. Today the broker had me waiting more than say 10 to 15 minutes after the actual move i was really upset, however i managed to enter some good positions on Gold, Eurusd, usdjpy, usdcad, audusd, gbpusd, gbpjpy, and more. I did not get the chance to setup as i would normally. I don't have a clue how they just freeze the software that only the demo moves, on vps, and two different computers all frozen. This is not the first broker to do this after milking the market once or twice...
Some say its a protective measure on their part, but it also makes me wonder about them and if they do other crazy things apart from widening the spread on positions intentionally, Market Makers.

Anyways prior to leaving the trading desk my live test account was more than 200% in equity growth. Downside for today i did get the chance to properly manage the trades well at all. While being on the road it went up in more profits, then the battery died, then i was like .... Anyways i really was checking to see how straddling would work again like it used to, it worked great as expected. I usually would send the orders 5 minutes leading into the actually release, as the calculations of placing the orders are usually done based on previous candle high and low. The tool i usually use is a script for placing 5 orders high and 5 low, they are split up percentage wise.

I went hunting for both news and straddle scripts and E.A.'s late in my morning 4 hours prior to news release was it a stress full and tiring feeling trying to setup 3 different machines.. The concept of getting the orders much closer to the data release is smart. Which a robot would best do this with calendar reading capabilities through dl or otherwise.
When you do observe news trading Experts operating they too send two orders above and below.
This strategy as you have rightly been observing is News driven and due to our nemesis being reversals, a straddle/grid or floating order based system would work great.
Grids systems with both stoploss and take profits would be good a quick 5-30-50 pips straddle. In other words 5 trades at 10 pips each yields 50 pips. Keep the profits by moving the stop loss to breakeven would be a must as i don't like charitable accounts. so after first entry the robot would send 5 orders in the direction with take profits, one to trail without take profits and there must be stop loss account protection measures. Utilizing breakeven and closing percentage of the trade size on open positions.
My purpose here is to be able to identify the asset through the calendar every week, red news-high impact and identify the pairs that will be likely affected, look at the range and see if it meets the criteria. The best experience is one direction break and continuation even to newyork. Trading would be considered easy, as it was just like it was when i just started this strategy. I got a big hit on platinum and palladium applying the same rules i did to currencies and it took all the profits i worked for during that time as i had no stoploss or take profits. Yes a very important aspect of trading knowing your risk versus your likely reward.
Trading station allowed one to know before time. When my stoploss is located here my money at risk is x amount and my take profit zone will yield x amount.
Your concept is great man...I have been searching for ways to be directionally biased but it requires to many indicators and moves the strategy away from being a simple strategy...
The next move is to isolate the pairs that react to the data release more systematically. Rather than those that burst in both directions triggering both trades and stop losses.

Your research and live trading is on point. My personal issue is that i have not been able to just stick to my reviews and testings as i am doing some independent research and development projects. While helping a lot of persons with three-four different market trading views/perspective to get the same result which has allowed me to be able to approach the market without even looking at the charts like i did today through strengths. Since not all the time the markets reaction reflects the results whether it is same, worst than or better than expected. The market had started moving opposite to all expectations, wiping out a lot of close stop losses and stop order points being triggered falsely as traps bull or bear traps. So not many persons trade news releases but the true momentum thereafter.


..

Late entries due to freezing mt4...During news...Sigh

Sorry to hear about the broker, thats fairly naughty of them to do that, ive found if the news release breaks to one side market will more than likely follow in that trend to which the breakout occured meaning we could look at the old pull back and potentially re-enter. Those that whip tend to just carry on moving sideways.

I think us humans are our own worst enemy along side with the greed, we always want that way to harvest more pips and more money and because we want that we try to improve our system, its that old saying if its not broke dont try and fix it, we constantly try to adapt our systems based around what price has just done and we forget our basic routes. For example i took a look at nesta system and was seeing how i could incorporate his signal system in to my trading and before i knew it i was looking at a whole new system to trading even though in my head initally i was just updating my system so i cancelled it and went back to my roots, dont get me wrong his system looks amazing from what ive read but again 1 system+1 system=New system. Now what ive been doing seems to be working well for me so i should be sticking to that If i could find a EA that allowed me to set up my Buy/Stop Sell stop with a Stop loss and a take profit, WITH an activation timer that would be perfect. The activation timer is crucial so we can set up our trades close to market price without them being triggered untill 1 minute before the release when they become active.

Regards
Neil

So i had a chat with my broker about news trading heres the conversation

Neil | 11:32
Morning, id just like to ask you a few questions with regards to news trading?

Mohamad | 11:34
hello neil of course how may i assist tou ?

Neil | 11:35
First does you platform allow news trading? Does your platform freeze at anypoint upon a news release? Will pending orders be filled wheni want them to? Will my exsisting stops be honoured or will they be filled much later on resulting in loss? Does your broker manipulate price in anyway before a large news event?

Neil | 11:36
is there any restrictions you empose upon news trading?
How tight will spreads be roughly on a news event if i was to use a XM zero account?


Neil | 11:40
Im just looking at new ways to trade and news has come across my desk thats all

Mohamad | 11:41
XM is classified as a market maker because we operate a dealing desk whose primary function is to process telephone orders. All client positions however, are covered through multiple liquidity providers and we do not benefit from client losses in any way. Our execution is highly optimised, with 99.35% of all orders being executed in less than 1 second, coupled with a strict no requotes and no rejections policy.

Mohamad | 11:42
XM (www.xm.com) was created to offer a more advanced user interface and improved web functionalities for upcoming products and new content (e.g. binary options, technical analysis, trading signals, forex tutorials and videos, etc).
its okay our platform do not freeze , and of course at any big event t we advise our clients to watch out the leverage

Mohamad | 11:43
you will receive an email from your personal account manager


Seem to be very honest and helpful with me i use a XM zero account just for the spreads however you do have to pay commission suppose they need to make money one way or another weather thats from spreads or commission maybe worth a look but they are market makers, this is why im looking at moving across to tallinex

Also going to be looking at the broker tallinex too this is copy and paste from there page. They are not market makers thats the reason for my potential move across to them.
Tallinex offers very good trading conditions:
- raw spreads from 0 pips
- leverage up to 1:1000
- full hedging, no FIFO
- no strategy restrictions
- excellent customer support

Three types of live accounts are available:
ECN-MICRO - $100 minimum deposit, 0.01 lots minimum position size
ECN-PRO - $2,000 minimum deposit, 0.10 lots minimum position size
MANAGED - professional traders trade for you in a PAMM system

The Tallinex ECN-MICRO account type is designed for traders new to the Forex market, and those needing to trade smaller volumes. Features include:

Variable spreads starting from 1.8 pips for EURUSD
Average EURUSD spread is 2.5 pips
Commission-free trades
Leverage from 1:1 up to 1:1000
Minimum trade size is 0.01 lots (1,000)
Minimum increment is 0.01 lots (1,000)
Minimum account opening deposit is US$ 100 / EUR 100
No dealing desk intervention
Margin call / Stop-out levels: 150% / 100%
No re-quotes
Hedging allowed
True ECN - liquidity provided by Integral via a Prime XM bridge

I like to do this too. I think once you start to specialise and get a really good feeling for how things move it definitely helps wth overall performance.

The question in my mind is always how to identify the best sources for forming the opinion in the first place.

Update on tallinex......Very informative

Hi, Neil
In simple terms, your expectations are unrealistic because you don't seem to understand how the interbank market works. Regardless, I have answered your questions:
Does you platform allow news trading? Yes
Does your platform freeze at any point upon a news release? Platform freezes will occur at times for a multitude of technical reasons, but not through deliberate action
Will pending orders be filled when i want them to? Pending orders create market orders once triggered, which are filled on the basis of "best available price"
Will my exsisting stops be honoured or will they be filled much later on resulting in loss? Stops are pending orders - see above
Does your broker manipulate price in anyway before a large news event? Price is not manipulated in any way - price comes from liquidity providers based on what is available in the market
is there any restrictions you empose upon news trading? No
How tight will spreads be roughly on a news event if i was to use a tallinex micro account? Spreads will be based on what prices are available in the market at the time - during fast and/or thin markets, Bid and Ask prices can be some distance apart

Ultimately, there are only two types of broker - ECN (i.e. Tallinex) and market markers. ECN brokers place your orders into the market where you get the best price available at the time. Market makers appear to offer better fills, tighter spreads, etc., but are only able to do so by trading against clients so, whilst you may experience some initial success, you will ultimately be forced to lose most (if not all) of your deposit because whatever you win is a loss to the broker and manipulation of price will eventually occur to stem that loss. I suggest you watch the following video published by an experienced FX trader who had a $5,000 account decimated in the space of a couple of minutes - he was using that particular broker because their demo price feed allowed an EA to be immensely profitable and he wanted to test the live feed:

Inserted Video

regards, Support

Now i decided to quiz XM again this is what i got.


Neil | 13:14
Ultimately, there are only two types of broker - ECN and market markers. ECN brokers place your orders into the market where you get the best price available at the time. Market makers appear to offer better fills, tighter spreads, etc., but are only able to do so by trading against clients so, whilst you may experience some initial success, you will ultimately be forced to lose most (if not all) of your deposit because whatever you win is a loss to the broker and manipulation of price will eventually occur to stem that loss. I suggest you watch the following video published by an experienced FX trader who had a $5,000 account decimated in the space of a couple of minutes - he was using that particular broker because their demo price feed allowed an EA to be immensely profitable and he wanted to test the live feed:
Inserted Video
by my understanding XM is classified as a market maker?

Neil | 13:20
sorry i may have lost signal their

Mohamad | 13:20
i am sorry Neil , i m not in a position to say what other brokers might think
yes Xm is market maker

they then continued to tell me that they do not profit from client losses in anyway. Id rather not take the risk looks like a switch for me.

fact that price is manipulated by brokers for retail traders is not such a new thing.every trader with experience know that.
but of course when you are in the front of the fact with your own account even if you knew it youre still surprised.regarding ECN brokers you can forget about it.
a very experienced trader also with huge IT experience told me one thing ''you cant make an account into one ECN broker just with your driver license and your utility bill''. and of course starting deposit is from 50k or even more up.so you may think twice when they say are ''true ECN'' but you start deposit with 50 bucks.lol
one thing is safe to do and thats not trade news because at that time broker will do whatever they want with price to be against you and fuck you as much they can.and when you will use one EA and that will put you in loss of course they will blame the EA or mql mt4 weirdo science fiction possible bugs.I found that dealing with forex as daily trader and run for tight targets as 10-15 pips even lower is not the best to send your sl to broker,so everytime i used a hidden sl or tp things was smooth comparing with the charts where sl/tp levels was sent to broker.now think whatever you wish.
now regarding diferences from demo to real of course they are big many times.now if those differences exist imagine what big differences exist from tester to real market conditions .and i say this just when i see so many are selling their products based on tester and that shit thing with 99% backtest which in fact means exactly nothing .if you test a tool in demo and real on same time in market and results are different then imagine what big difference is from real market and backtesting.so think twice when a guy show you his guru's backtests and want sell you his ''holy grail'' lol
the ONLY place whee you can test a tool and get real performance data is right into REAL market account with real conditions.end of story.

see bellow a little demo left /real right candles difference.
cheer up!