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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #20,621
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:24am Jul 27, 2017 6:24am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i wont go into it in depth but.... May 2017 Cable.. 23 trades....win 18 and loss 5,,, The 5 losses had at least 17 points on the opposite end. It is like this month in month out
one last question as a follow up to your answer........do you know what the average range was also? Trying to get an idea of recovery rate compared to the 17 out the other side.
  • #20,622
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:33am Jul 27, 2017 6:33am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hello ClassicJ and welcome, i will answer first question regarding pips/points following break. I cannot quite follow your wonderful first set of stats, I look at Frequency Distribution something similar to your post, See which number of pips/points appear the most and take it from there. Dont forget after a trigger if it retraces we can trade a retrace, if we have a fail normally the other end makes +20 /daily high /ADR. I don't hedge but counter but if you feel good hedging go for it, i do at times.
I don't hedge but I counter..... A hahaha ah I just realised that in fact I understand nothing.... For me counter was hedging.....

If someone could enlightened me because I just spend the last 2 days to figure out the difference without success

A moment of loneliness in front of my screen I need to admit....

Have a wonderful day
trying to make everyday the best risk/reward decisions possible
  • #20,623
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:42am Jul 27, 2017 6:42am
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} I don't hedge but I counter..... A hahaha ah I just realised that in fact I understand nothing.... For me counter was hedging..... If someone could enlightened me because I just spend the last 2 days to figure out the difference without success A moment of loneliness in front of my screen I need to admit.... Have a wonderful day
Hedging would be when you take 2 pairs that are correlated in a way that you stay even and then you add a 3rd pair that you use to gain profits from. I'm sure there are many hedging methods out there....that is just an example that I read somewhere. But Hedging is using different Pairs to hedge each other out to minimize your losses.

Countering is when you enter a trade at the same place you would normally use a SL. Instead of saying "you win" to the broker and use a SL, you say FU to the broker and you enter a trade in the opposite direction and you keep that bad trade in limbo until you get another trigger.

I hope this helps and doesn't make things worse...ahaha
  • #20,624
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:48am Jul 27, 2017 6:48am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} one last question as a follow up to your answer........do you know what the average range was also? Trying to get an idea of recovery rate compared to the 17 out the other side.
you cannot rely on averages,, you need frequency distribution..
what is the average of 5 5 5 10 100 = 25.
how many trades made more than 25 ? how many trades made more than 4.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,625
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:50am Jul 27, 2017 6:50am
[quote=bojack34;10128550]{quote} Hedging would be when you take 2 pairs that are correlated in a way that you stay even and then you add a 3rd pair that you use to gain profits from. I'm sure there are many hedging methods out there....that is just an example t

you can hedge with a second pair as you say.. that is standard. OR just trade opposite end with a higher lot size
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,626
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:59am Jul 27, 2017 6:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} good post, but it looks to me that from day we will be getting a lot of inside bars. I look for Daily High/Low first then see where adr , My stats are a lot different from yours.
“My stats are a lot different from yours.”
Another reason I realized is that I told program to roughly gathered "Monday" to "Friday" price data from 2015.01 - 2017.07, which menas New Year bank holiday, Chrismas, or some other holidays could also be included....If the holiday happens at "Monday" to "Friday"...
At holidays price uauslly has very little movement which causes day range less than 75% ADR...
  • #20,627
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:04am Jul 27, 2017 7:04am
Cable today we had a High fail, IT HAPPENS, i am glad everyone has seen it.
We look for tomorrow
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,628
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:06am Jul 27, 2017 7:06am
Quoting classicJ
{quote} My stats are a lot different from yours. Another reason I realized is that I told program to roughly gathered "Monday" to "Friday" price data from 2015.01 - 2017.07, which menas New Year bank holiday, Chrismas, or some other holidays could also be included....If the holiday happens at "Monday" to "Friday"... At holidays price uauslly has very little movement which causes day range less than 75% ADR...
my stats are mon to fri including holidays.
Our stats may vary but as long as we have something to work off.

edit, we had that spike at 11-09 , in the future it wont matter but that is what made it fail today. Probably news i have no idea.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,629
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:07am Jul 27, 2017 7:07am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Interesting - not sure about the 666 ! Billy says his stats differ. While I don't think it matters too much could it simply be down to different time zones ?
About the tatal days: Program collects all "Monday" to "Friday" price data from 2015.01 to 2017.07...

About the different stats: Yeah maybe we set different day start time...I set day start time at GMT 0:00... Also, like I mentioned Program collects all "Monday" to "Friday" price data, which holidays could be in it .... Anyway, the ADR is just a guidance...
  • #20,630
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:07am Jul 27, 2017 7:07am
Quoting slowbrain
{quote} I don't hedge but I counter..... A hahaha ah I just realised that in fact I understand nothing.... For me counter was hedging..... If someone could enlightened me because I just spend the last 2 days to figure out the difference without success A moment of loneliness in front of my screen I need to admit.... Have a wonderful day
Hi SB.

Some people, not a stone's throw away from here, call what we call countering, nedging...ie hedging by taking an opposite position on the same pair.
  • #20,631
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:09am Jul 27, 2017 7:09am
Quoting classicJ
{quote} About the tatal days: Program collects all "Monday" to "Friday" price data from 2015.01 to 2017.07... About the different stats: Yeah maybe we set different day start time...I set day start time at GMT 0:00... Also, like I mentioned Program collects all "Monday" to "Friday" price data, which holidays could be in it .... Anyway, the ADR is just a guidance...
Agree it's just a guidance.
  • #20,632
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:15am Jul 27, 2017 7:15am
Cable is being a little booger today. I never like it when the DPV is in the middle of the range. Seems like price always bounces around which increases the odds of fails.

Edit: I misspoke on accident. I meant to say EJ.
  • #20,633
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:17am Jul 27, 2017 7:17am
Quoting billytt
{quote} my stats are mon to fri including holidays. Our stats may vary but as long as we have something to work off. edit, we had that spike at 11-09 , in the future it wont matter but that is what made it fail today. Probably news i have no idea.
Yeah thanks Billy
  • #20,634
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:27am Jul 27, 2017 7:27am
Dead Zone kept me busy for a bit there. All but one of my earlier watch-list went on to do something.

I don't often run the DZ much past the first hitter but today I was in the mood for a bit of fun.

DAX was my initial trade, as noted above. Came good.

EJ dropped into a lovely S+D channel and gave excellent surfing conditions. I took it up and then down, as WZ entries.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I was waiting on UC dropping, with the plan to take it long on the bounce back up - but the drop never happened. It's still up there, just sitting on its' thumbs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AN on the other hand, gave one perfect bounce. As the range was smaller and the 61.8 fib was sitting right on the upper DZ edge, I entered on the bounce out of the Demand-Zone, not waiting for the WZ entry to give me more pips before any potential turn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That is not strict DZ methodology but it's my game and as far as I'm concerned, I can make up my own rules when I feel like it, so long as I accept the risks of it blowing up in my face .

As such, with GOLD giving me a perfect chance of a bounce off the upper Supply-Zone, I did exactly the same thing and entered the trade as it exited the zone, not waiting for the WZ entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,635
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:27am Jul 27, 2017 7:27am
Nearly time for Billy's Afternoon Delight!
  • #20,636
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:51am Jul 27, 2017 7:51am
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  • #20,637
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:59am Jul 27, 2017 7:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} you cannot rely on averages,, you need frequency distribution.. what is the average of 5 5 5 10 100 = 25. how many trades made more than 25 ? how many trades made more than 4.
Cogs are turning Mr B, light bulbs getting brighter
  • #20,638
  • Jul 27, 2017 8:01am Jul 27, 2017 8:01am
Quoting lemercenaire
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!! {image} {image}
Yeeee Haaaa Lem, The way to go.
  • #20,639
  • Jul 27, 2017 8:10am Jul 27, 2017 8:10am
Billy's Afternoon Delight hits the spot again. Done WZ. North into the body. +5%

Well, it looked to have stalled and with a distinct lack of surrounding information to go on, I actually took +4.95. It did actually go on to make the full amount ok but hey, ho, there ya' go...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That's me done-and-dusted for the day.
  • #20,640
  • Jul 27, 2017 8:27am Jul 27, 2017 8:27am
Quoting billytt
{quote} you cannot rely on averages,, you need frequency distribution.. what is the average of 5 5 5 10 100 = 25. how many trades made more than 25 ? how many trades made more than 4.
The difference, as William has shown, is critical to your bottom line and mental health.
Here is a simple example of what Billy is talking about - the chart is self explanatory.
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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