Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1031 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #20,601
  • Jul 27, 2017 3:38am Jul 27, 2017 3:38am
Cable, the retrace up and down since Low break has happened 3 times.
We can keep shorting until it fails or keeps going down.
We cannot say how many times this will/can happen.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,602
  • Jul 27, 2017 3:39am Jul 27, 2017 3:39am
Quoting sheppy
{quote} I gotta be thick here, , my broker IC Markets runs at gmt+2 hrs so for the first four hrs I had a high 1.31265 and a low of 1.31073 so I didnt even take a trade on the cable because the range was too small. Do I need to be looking at another 4 hr period as your hi and low and range are sure different than mine Thanks again Billy you are very generous to share your wisdom
Sheppy for me it's the 4 1H bars leading up to the London Open because my MT4 times are different than those who live in the UK. If you just look at it as the 4 hours leading up to the London Open you cannot go wrong. You billy bar is finished forming just as London market is opening. I hope that makes sense.
  • #20,603
  • Edited 3:53am Jul 27, 2017 3:39am | Edited 3:53am
Hectic start to the day. I don't know why I even bother to mention that now...I trade the DAX, it should just be a given ...

On the 06:00-08:00, I took an immediate entry long as a WZ move back up inside the body. I had figured that long was the direction to be on. Wrong move - moved a couple of pips or so and then - as usual - in the blink of an eye, it reversed. I did just about manage to get onto the counter short with double lot and after a heart-stopping moment where it looked like it was going to turn back inside again, it did go on and make the +5%. All of this happened in what seemed like a Twilight Zone-like warping of the space-time-continuum, as time simultaneously flew by at lightning-strike speed and stopped dead in its tracks at the same time.

I have been trading now for what seems like many, many, decades and the DAX still has the ability to hit like a freight train. This really isn't for the faint of heart, lol.

EDIT: As you can see, price then headed off for the moon as originally expected! I didn't trade it.

DAX-Monster 06:00-08:00 +5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedDAX-Monster06.00-08.00July27th17_LIcrop.jpg Size: 876 KB


I then mainlined a quick brew and flying high on the results, decided to look at a little something I'm working on and scalped a further +9 DAX % on a short scalp, lol.

I may pack up my travelling circus for now. There's only so many times you can poke a bear!
  • #20,604
  • Jul 27, 2017 3:49am Jul 27, 2017 3:49am
Quoting sheppy
{quote} I gotta be thick here, , my broker IC Markets runs at gmt+2 hrs so for the first four hrs I had a high 1.31265 and a low of 1.31073 so I didnt even take a trade on the cable because the range was too small. Do I need to be looking at another 4 hr period as your hi and low and range are sure different than mine Thanks again Billy you are very generous to share your wisdom
See Post #20598
  • #20,605
  • Jul 27, 2017 3:49am Jul 27, 2017 3:49am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi sheppy. I'd also add that it's not the first 4 hr bar of the day, it's the 04:00 - 08:00 bar (and that's the UK time bar).
ok now we are making sense thanks Billy thanks Lem))
  • #20,606
  • Jul 27, 2017 3:50am Jul 27, 2017 3:50am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Sheppy for me it's the 4 1H bars leading up to the London Open because my MT4 times are different than those who live in the UK. If you just look at it as the 4 hours leading up to the London Open you cannot go wrong. You billy bar is finished forming just as London market is opening. I hope that makes sense.
Thanks Bo
  • #20,607
  • Edited 4:42am Jul 27, 2017 4:23am | Edited 4:42am
E/J just broke High....


edit t 10-41 Cable is coiling up, LET IT DROP.....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,608
  • Jul 27, 2017 4:37am Jul 27, 2017 4:37am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Read this http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/...TR_AND_ADR.pdf
"In many markets there is a 85% probability that today’s price activity will reach 75% of the value of the 5 day ADR." - From the article.

I did a ADR analysis for EU,GU,AU,EJ from 2015.01 to 2017.07. Result shows the probability of their daily move reaching 75% of ADR is not that high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ADR.png Size: 44 KB

Basically it has arount 70% chance for any given day to reach 75% of ADR (little difference between 5-Day ADR, 10-Day ADR, 20-Day ADR).

ADR works better with AU, especially 5-Day ADR.

Hope this helps.
  • #20,609
  • Jul 27, 2017 5:14am Jul 27, 2017 5:14am
Quoting classicJ
{quote} "In many markets there is a 85% probability that todays price activity will reach 75% of the value of the 5 day ADR." - From the article. I did a ADR analysis for EU,GU,AU,EJ from 2015.01 to 2017.07. Result shows the probability of their daily move reaching 75% of ADR is not that high. {image} Basically it has arount 70% chance for any given day to reach 75% of ADR (little difference between 5-Day ADR, 10-Day ADR, 20-Day ADR). ADR works better with AU, especially 5-Day ADR. Hope this helps.
good post, but it looks to me that from day we will be getting a lot of inside bars.
I look for Daily High/Low first then see where adr , My stats are a lot different from yours.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,610
  • Jul 27, 2017 5:15am Jul 27, 2017 5:15am
i see Cable High just broke...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,611
  • Jul 27, 2017 5:32am Jul 27, 2017 5:32am
Billy could you please tell me what your stats say the % are for cable to get +5 on the Original Trigger Break? And what the % are for Cable to get +5 on the Counter Trigger? Please and TYVM!!
  • #20,612
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:56am Jul 27, 2017 6:56am
Quoting billytt
{quote} good post, but it looks to me that from day we will be getting a lot of inside bars. I look for Daily High/Low first then see where adr , My stats are a lot different from yours.
Thank you Billy.

I use GMT 0:00 as the new day starts.
If today is Monday, then Monday 5-Day ADR would be:

(last Friday Range + last Thursday Range + last Wednesday Range + last Tuesday Range +last Monday Range)/5
(Day Range = Day High - Day Low)

When Monday ends , we know Monday Range, so is the relationship between Monday Range and Monday 5-Day ADR.
Calculate Monday Range/Monday 5-Day ADR, then we would know if Monday Range has reached 75% of Monday 5-Day ADR.
So only when a new day starts, I would be able to calculate the previous day's data.

"My stats are a lot different from yours."
I gatherd and calculated those data by program that can't be wrong, I've double checked.
So... maybe you count day start time differently? Or you calculate the data in a different way.
Btw I use Dukacopy price data.

" From day we will be getting a lot of inside bars. I look for Daily High/Low first then see where adr"
Sorry I don't quite understand this...
If you mean how to measure current day's movement, sure the estimated low would be current day high - ADR and estiamted high would be current day low + ADR.
Once current day makes a higher high/lower low, the estimated low/high should changes correspondingly.
  • #20,613
  • Jul 27, 2017 6:58am Jul 27, 2017 6:58am
EJ looks like a likely DZ candidate today.

UC maybe latter surf. AN somewhere in between.
  • #20,614
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:00am Jul 27, 2017 7:00am
Gold could give a rebound later also.
  • #20,615
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:01am Jul 27, 2017 7:01am
DAX could give a WZ North.
  • #20,616
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:27am Jul 27, 2017 7:27am
Quoting lemercenaire
DAX could give a WZ North.
DAX triggered first. In the bag.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30H1DeadZone27thJuly17TriggeredFirst-AsWZ-NorthPoss.png Size: 34 KB
  • #20,617
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:32am Jul 27, 2017 7:32am
Quoting bojack34
Billy could you please tell me what your stats say the % are for cable to get +5 on the Original Trigger Break? And what the % are for Cable to get +5 on the Counter Trigger? Please and TYVM!!
you are looking at high 80% into 90% for both ends
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,618
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:43am Jul 27, 2017 7:43am
Quoting classicJ
{quote} "In many markets there is a 85% probability that todays price activity will reach 75% of the value of the 5 day ADR." - From the article. I did a ADR analysis for EU,GU,AU,EJ from 2015.01 to 2017.07. Result shows the probability of their daily move reaching 75% of ADR is not that high. {image} Basically it has arount 70% chance for any given day to reach 75% of ADR (little difference between 5-Day ADR, 10-Day ADR, 20-Day ADR). ADR works better with AU, especially 5-Day ADR. Hope this helps.
Interesting - not sure about the 666 !

Billy says his stats differ. While I don't think it matters too much could it simply be down to different time zones ?
  • #20,619
  • Jul 27, 2017 7:45am Jul 27, 2017 7:45am
Quoting billytt
{quote} you are looking at high 80% into 90% for both ends
thanks....exactly what i was looking for....good enough for me!!
  • #20,620
  • Jul 27, 2017 8:17am Jul 27, 2017 8:17am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} thanks....exactly what i was looking for....good enough for me!!
i wont go into it in depth but....
May 2017 Cable.. 23 trades....win 18 and loss 5,,, The 5 losses had at least 17 points on the opposite end.
It is like this month in month out
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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