Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1027 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #20,521
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:11am Jul 26, 2017 12:11am
GBP Prelim GDP q/q coming out in 1 hour 20 min from now........at 15-30 USD Crude Oil Inventories.....at 19-00 we have USD FOMC Statement.......be careful today if you are trading Cable or any GBP pairs now and/or any USD pairs later today. Good Luck everyone!
  • #20,522
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:32am Jul 26, 2017 12:32am
[quote=billytt;10122087]{quote} {image} not this time boy, You get the master himself[/quote]
Attached Image
  • #20,523
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:33am Jul 26, 2017 12:33am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} {image} not this time boy, You get the master himself {image}
lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,524
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:35am Jul 26, 2017 12:35am
at this moment in time things are looking dodgy for Cable, sitting on the 00....
BUT a stat is a stat
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,525
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:37am Jul 26, 2017 12:37am
Quoting bojack34
GBP Prelim GDP q/q coming out in 1 hour 20 min from now........at 15-30 USD Crude Oil Inventories.....at 19-00 we have USD FOMC Statement.......be careful today if you are trading Cable or any GBP pairs now and/or any USD pairs later today. Good Luck everyone!
yes indeed, always look for news
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,526
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:39am Jul 26, 2017 12:39am
The DAX showed perfectly this morning why it should always be treated with the utmost respect, moving at lightning speed one way immediately out of the gate, then turning back on itself, spiking back and forth, before finally heading off in the completely opposite direction...all in less than the time it took to write this.

The ability to just ''do'' without having to go past the ''think'' portion of the brain is definitely a talent to nurture, lol.

Anyway, took the WZ move south right at the off and that was that. If by any chance I had missed the entry and got caught on the fakeout, then it would have been a simple job to get it all back and more as the monster cut and ran for the hills.

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  • #20,527
  • Edited 1:08am Jul 26, 2017 12:43am | Edited 1:08am
Quoting billytt
at this moment in time things are looking dodgy for Cable, sitting on the 00.... BUT a stat is a stat
My normal routine is to ONLY trade the Cable counter trade, but as the 04-00 bar was being formed I noticed price bounced really hard off the 00 line and it was going to be my lower trigger for the 04-00 break. I decided to trade ONLY the upper trigger break today if it was the original trigger......and I have 2x lot size and going for +5 ONLY because the DPV is 6 pips from my upper trigger. You saying Cable looks dodgy makes me feel better about the decision I made.
  • #20,528
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:45am Jul 26, 2017 12:45am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Welcome, classicJ. If you have discovered stats as the base foundation that runs through this thread, then you are for sure on the right track . As for the more detailed question, I'll leave that to Billy. He's the Cap'n of this here brigantine.
Hi Lem! Thanks for the welcome and and letting me know that I'm in the right track.
  • #20,529
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:47am Jul 26, 2017 12:47am
t 08-45...
Cable,,IF it breaks low and then retraces i will do a short.
i only need 5 points but will have 2 lots on it....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,530
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:48am Jul 26, 2017 12:48am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hello ClassicJ and welcome, i will answer first question regarding pips/points following break. I cannot quite follow your wonderful first set of stats, I look at Frequency Distribution something similar to your post, See which number of pips/points appear the most and take it from there. Dont forget after a trigger if it retraces we can trade a retrace, if we have a fail normally the other end makes +20 /daily high /ADR. I don't hedge but counter but if you feel good hedging go for it, i do at times.
Hi Billy! Thanks for the answer!
I may be confused about counter and hedge…… I see many times you’ve talked about keep the bad trade in limbo, and wait till the next trigger.

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I’ve made the stats more easier to understand.

Frequency column: it shows how many of them falls into specific breakout range.
After price breaks out of one side of 04-00 range(High or Low), and before it reverses back and hit the other side of the range(which means the opposite trigger), 47 of them make it between 0 to 2 pips, and then reverse back. 42 of them make 2 to 4 pips and then reverse, 48 of them make 4 to 6 pips and reverse….

Probabilities column: Just the number in Frequency column/811, which calculates the probability of each raw. 5.8% of them make between 0 to 2 pips, 5.2% of them make between 2 to 4 pips…. And 47% make more than 30pips…

Cumulative Probabilities column: the sum of previous probabilities. Like I colored that 16.9% of them make less than 6 pips, which means 83.1% of them make more than 6 pips…24.4% make less than 10 pips, so 75.6% make more than 10 pips.

Yeah I do collect other stats… like retrace stats, range stats, I’ll try to analyze them and see if I could find some patterns.
  • #20,531
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:49am Jul 26, 2017 12:49am
Quoting bojack34
{image}
Pot...Kettle...Black...

I do think it comes with the territory over here, lol.
  • #20,532
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:50am Jul 26, 2017 12:50am
[quote=bojack34;10122995]{quote} My normal routine is to ONLY trade the Cable counter trade, but as the 04-00 bar was being formed I noticed price bounced really hard off the 00 line and it was going to be my

If you look at this chart next week, it will be history, it might break low and 00 and keep going for +10+
When you say counter, is that off a true Fail. because it doesnt fail all that often.
Just saying ..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,533
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:51am Jul 26, 2017 12:51am
Quoting billytt
t 08-45... Cable,,IF it breaks low and then retraces i will do a short. i only need 5 points but will have 2 lots on it....
Great idea. Note taken!
  • #20,534
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:51am Jul 26, 2017 12:51am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Pot...Kettle...Black... I do think it comes with the territory over here, lol.
lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,535
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:52am Jul 26, 2017 12:52am
E/J low just triggered, maybe a clue for e/u
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,536
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:53am Jul 26, 2017 12:53am
[quote=billytt;10123019]
Quoting bojack34
{quote} My normal routine is to ONLY trade the Cable counter trade, but as the 04-00 bar was being formed I noticed price bounced really hard off the 00 line and it was going to be my If you look at this chart next week, it will be history, it might break low and 00 and keep going for +10+ When you say counter, is that off a true Fail. because it doesnt fail all that often. Just saying ..
Yes off of a true fail....less than +10. I haven't done it many times yet. I have used the retrace trades on Cable a lot more often so far. I am trying to ONLY trade the Counters off of a true fail, and the retraces off of the original broken trigger. So far so good.
  • #20,537
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:55am Jul 26, 2017 12:55am
Same thing with E/U i shall short it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,538
  • Jul 26, 2017 12:56am Jul 26, 2017 12:56am
AU range too big? Running it WZ would have given the +5%.

F40 hit it out the park again...

04:00 - 08:00
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07:00 - 08:00
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  • #20,539
  • Jul 26, 2017 1:09am Jul 26, 2017 1:09am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} My normal routine is to ONLY trade the Cable counter trade, but as the 04-00 bar was being formed I noticed price bounced really hard off the 00 line and it was going to be my lower trigger for the 04-00 break. I decided to trade ONLY the upper trigger break today if it was the original trigger......and I have 2x lot size and going for +5 ONLY because the DPV is 6 pips from my upper trigger. You saying Cable looks dodgy makes me feel better about the decision I made.
  • #20,540
  • Jul 26, 2017 1:09am Jul 26, 2017 1:09am
[quote=bojack34;10123034]
Quoting billytt
{quote} Yes off of a true fail....less than +10. I haven't done it many times yet. I have used the retrace trades on Cable a lot more often so far. I am trying to ONLY trade the Counters off of a true fail, and the retraces off of the original broken trigger. So far so good.
Just saying bud, the stats are good for trigger +10, with not many fails lol, thats why i trade this way.
BUT with an actual failed trade we can hit the trade harder, it is all method and recoup/making right

edit, what i am saying is,,,IF yo are going to trade off a Fail, you will be hanging around like a homeless person, with long beard lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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