The SETUP and the Chuvashova Fork

Thank you Wab for your video, would you please explain more about defining the HH and HL. I am still confused about hot to identify them. it will be nice to have this explained through your next video if possible.

thanks again for your help.

Hi Wab,

I am sure something wrong in my understanding, kindly why the price did not go as per the SETUP?

your comments are highly appreciated

Hello htawfik.

If you wait for a second pass, past the E line (above it in this case) it is a much safer entry. I will explain that in detail in my next video post. Also try to get the Alligator on your side. Going against the Alligator generally fails. Wait until you are sure of the Alligator direction. This can be achieved by monitoring the fractals above and below the Alligator until price breaks one of them.

Not the best example but an illustration of how to wait for a 2nd pass entry with a pending order. (Add a bit of rook for the spread on any pending orders or stops.)
Even the BW fractal entry (first fractal level above or below the red Alligator line) often gives a 2nd pass opportunity.

Hi Wab, Great thread, I am following & learning, pls keep up the good work.

regards
Arthurle

Thanks ArthurLe. I will add more as I get time.

How long do Wab job in the forex?

Hi Wab and all,

Been busy with work and life, in general so I wasn't able to share much lately.
I'm attaching two charts.

NZDCHF, H4
As you can see, the P ran away from me. I didn't cut my losses short and dragged the trades on and on.
I need to learn to let go *SIGH*


USDJPY, H4
I think I got this one OK, not great but OK.

I am working on a video and I will the USDJPY H4.

To answer your question AndreJ07, I have been involved with trading for many years, mostly stocks, then options and a brief foray into commodities. Forex for about four years now.

I still consider myself to be a beginner in Forex but I think I am making good progress. I share my ideas here and I learn a lot from others. I hope that what I share is useful.

Most of what I have found on line is either useless or I just don't understand it. I think we all have to develop our own understanding of the charts and perfect it to our own comfort levels. Many people have helped me along the way and I feel obliged to pass what I have come to understand on in turn. In my professional life I was a teacher and enjoyed teaching and still do.

Stay tuned for my next video. I am sure it will be worth a whole month of written posts. Thanks to Rea for the chart above as it is a near perfect example to work from.

Waiting on NZDJPY to make its move.
T and P are too close for me to be comfortable with but I'm keeping an eye and some pending orders, not jumping in.
Yet.

Okay. Here we go with a video on the USDJPY H4. Let me know what you think. I hope I am getting better at this.

Just an addendum to the video:

Once again at the 127 level (Bearish this time) and around the Support Resistance line we experience a bit if difficulty, now with our LL HL analysis.



The count is easily confused at this point and again we get a false signal. Bearing in mind we are now short and have not yet met our potential Fib target so we are cautious. Alligator is down, AO is negative, check these when confused.

Here is how we work around this as the count clears itself up:



I have drawn in the current T to potential E line in white.

(This type of confusion happens when we are working with two different degrees of Elliot Wave showing on the same time frame. Changeling time frame often clarifies the count as fractals show up or vanish in different time frames and the confusion goes along with that. However, this is Elliott Wave without Elliott Wave and I don't want o overload and dive into that too far at this point.)

So, some homework, since we are now in a live analysis. Find the next bullish SETUP.

At this point the M15 is looking like it could be close to it. Watch and see.



Good hunting.

Overnight (for me anyway) USDJPY H4 is still trying for a reversal.

First a review of the big picture:



Then a look at the detail and an update of the LL, LH sequence.

The trend line is updated through the latest potential E.

A Chuvashova Fork is interesting and the Fib levels are nearby. AO has divergence.

This is an H1 chart so there is lots of time to think about a trade, watch the trend line for a warning break and so forth.



The market will soon reveal its intent, likely form a SETUP and then we can trade it accordingly.

Hi Wab,

Thanks for the video and followup analysis.
How do you determine a HH/HL/LL/LH? I mean, there are small ones and bigger ones on a given chart (I'll try to upload EURJPY later on to demonstrate this), I would value the more emphasized ones over the smaller ones but do they count, as well? The smaller ones, I mean.



Thanks.

The one way is to go to a HTF. and eliminate a lot of the smaller confusing ones.
That way you can identify the main ones and the ones that are inside them. Next video I will try to explain that better.

Meanwhile... is that an H1 SETUP on the USDJPY?

Yes, sure looks like it but I hope it's a fail cause I'm shorting it ;D

It is not a setup because P is lower than T
What have I not seen right.

Here is how I traded (am trading it.)

Initial entry at the E line. Entry at 61.8 pullback, took a second entry at the second pass of the E line, final entry at U line.



Price came down to nearly the 70.2 sweet spot and then a bullish SETUP formed. It takes patience and you have to wait for it to become clear.

The 100 Fib target is right in the area where we have run into past Support Resistance turbulence, so that may be the place to take profits on this one.

Alligator looks strong as we move through the 127 area. Another live trade to enjoy.

Hi Wab,

In retrospective I understand why you took the trade but for me.... well, for the life of me I can't understand why the trend reversed and/or if this is a counter trendish trade.

*SIGH* Much to learn.