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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #23,081
  • Jul 18, 2017 4:35pm Jul 18, 2017 4:35pm
E/U STILL UPTREND..

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  • #23,082
  • Jul 19, 2017 4:24am Jul 19, 2017 4:24am
EW EU count

https://atozforex.com/news/19-july-e...wave-analysis/


nice idea, but who can find the pivotal fault?

Hint: it is inside the last wave C which marked the high yesterday :-)
  • #23,083
  • Jul 19, 2017 4:27am Jul 19, 2017 4:27am
DXY 8% bulls

EURUSD 87% bulls


there might not be much ammunition left
  • #23,084
  • Edited 4:53pm Jul 19, 2017 5:39am | Edited 4:53pm
e/u...1630/50 Can be very strong R...
Let's see if euro still have the strength to get there. to short there
  • #23,085
  • Jul 19, 2017 5:08pm Jul 19, 2017 5:08pm
Quoting chess king
E/U STILL UPTREND.. {image}

I only see up at this moment ... where the euro stops ..I do not know.
I continue with 1650 ... or 19xx as very likely zones .

W..chart
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  • #23,086
  • Jul 21, 2017 7:23am Jul 21, 2017 7:23am
http://elliottwavegold.com/2017/07/e...medium=twitter

Lara on dxy
  • #23,087
  • Jul 21, 2017 7:50am Jul 21, 2017 7:50am
dxy 11% bulls

EU 83% bulls
  • #23,088
  • Jul 21, 2017 11:00am Jul 21, 2017 11:00am
nice Video analysis

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfg...9mgzMjrw5N2NGg
  • #23,089
  • Jul 21, 2017 1:56pm Jul 21, 2017 1:56pm
Secular Disinflationary Trend Hits New Highs: Deflation on Deck? What’s That Mean for Gold?
  • #23,090
  • Jul 21, 2017 2:05pm Jul 21, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting infinitus
Secular Disinflationary Trend Hits New Highs: Deflation on Deck? Whats That Mean for Gold?

Click here to view Mish's entire Venture Alliance Presentation, 38 slides in all.
  • #23,091
  • Jul 21, 2017 7:51pm Jul 21, 2017 7:51pm
what is up with ForexFactory?

Hardly one can see activity. Where are the active threads with technical analysis? Alexa Rank is sinking significantly as well as the numbers of Backlinks.

Is FF in trouble?
  • #23,092
  • Jul 22, 2017 4:34am Jul 22, 2017 4:34am
Senex FX actual EW Video

Inserted Video
  • #23,093
  • Jul 22, 2017 5:27am Jul 22, 2017 5:27am
DXY EW count near term
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  • #23,094
  • Jul 22, 2017 2:44pm Jul 22, 2017 2:44pm
David Rosenberg: "This Is The Single Most Important Thing For The Market Over The Next Decade"

very interesting stuff

does not make me feel comfortable
  • #23,095
  • Jul 23, 2017 12:51am Jul 23, 2017 12:51am
A Complete History Of John McCain Calling For War Around The World
  • #23,096
  • Jul 23, 2017 2:45am Jul 23, 2017 2:45am
https://www.economist.com/news/finan...s-dear-big-mac


BigMac Index
  • #23,097
  • Jul 23, 2017 3:02am Jul 23, 2017 3:02am
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Big Mac Index Interactive


Most people only know the raw Big Mac Index, simply comparing the prices. But there is also a GDP adjusted version of the Big Mac Index, which much better reflects the differences in the prices.

raw:

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adjusted:

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  • #23,098
  • Jul 23, 2017 3:50am Jul 23, 2017 3:50am
I love such tools :-)

now I have calculated the Big Mac Index for the USD-Index

keep in mind: the price "The Economist" obtained, are from around beginning July to 13th July (they published on the 13th)


The result is, that the raw Index shows 15,4% overvaluation in the UDX, whereas the GDP adjusted Index shows 3,5% overvaluation

Observation: raw Index likes to swing between -50% and +50% in many countries, the GDP adjusted Index swings a bit more narrow as it seems
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  • #23,099
  • Jul 23, 2017 4:01am Jul 23, 2017 4:01am
Quoting infinitus
I love such tools :-) now I have calculated the Big Mac Index for the USD-Index keep in mind: the price "The Economist" obtained, are from around beginning July to 13th July (they published on the 13th) The result is, that the raw Index shows 15,4% overvaluation in the UDX, whereas the GDP adjusted Index shows 3,5% overvaluation Observation: raw Index likes to swing between -50% and +50% in many countries, the GDP adjusted Index swings a bit more narrow as it seems {image}

Question to all:

what is the reason, that Currencies sometimes show e.g. up to 50% overvaluation/undervaluation? I mean that is really really a wide swing from fair value.

Also the question is: when prices can be determined by fundamental analysis, does this mean, that the fundamental analysis deals with such an huge error rate?
  • #23,100
  • Jul 23, 2017 4:36am Jul 23, 2017 4:36am
EU sentiment:

regardless where I look I can hardly see USD-bullish opinion/analysis.

Looking at the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) (Option traders) for weeks now the DX is in very low territory. In May we saw only around 5% bulls, now we are around 11%.

The longer such extreme conditions appear, the sharper the snap-back reaction most of the time.

OK, looking at retail trader positioning, we now see over a very long time, that the retail crowd is short and bleeding. But looking into their placed orders, one can sense, that they got trapped in their short positions and will exit them as soon as possible for somewhat better prices. The buy orders are all placed down the way to 1.10 and lower.

Keep in mind: at the turning point it seems that the crowd is very often right (but do not look at the price they paid for this honor). But instead of riding the pig for some good time in their favored direction they are quick to abandon the ship and jump to the former trend direction.
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